Lots of clima-hullaballo this week in the media thanks NOAA and this announcement in NOAA’s “State of the Climate” report seen here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
They state:
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).
Much of the global “record highest” claim hinges on this one point about Russia:
Note the +5C anomalies in that region in the map cited by NCDC:![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
But, according to satellite temperatures, the ranking claimed by NCDC isn’t anywhere near to “record warmest”. Dr. John Christy gives these values for the satellite data sources of global temperature and their ranks:
- UAH Nov 2013 9th warmest Nov (0.20 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
- RSS Nov 2013 16th warmest Nov (0.22 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
And, when we look at the UAH map of the world, while Russia was certainly warmer, it wasn’t as warm as NCDC makes it to be:
Source: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Other maps from GISS suggest the NCDC presentation might be stretching the November temperatures a bit in the SOTC report, possibly because of the NCDC choice of baseline period.
GISS says 0.40 in November for the 1981-2010 base period used by UAH:
….and just 0.38 in November for 1981-2010 base period if 250km smoothing used:
Clearly, how you calculate and present global temperature anomalies makes a difference in the answer you get for November.
The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.
For example if I tweak the GISS parameters to use the 20th century, we get this, a value of 0.76C above normal, which is closer to NCDC’s value:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1901&base2=2000&radius=250&pol=reg
[Added: Also pointed out in comments NCDC has a lot of data gaps in Russia.
![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/20131111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201311.gif
When the data finally arrives (due to late reporting stations that trickle in), one wonders what the smoothing over Russia will look like and how much the global temperature value for November changes. NOAA/NCDC has to produce “State of the Climate” report each month, and they often do so before all the data is in, but we don’t ever see any update of those values sent to the press. ]
Another source using the GHCN surface land data and surface ocean data in an NCEP analysis, WeatherBell, agrees that Russia was quite anomalously warm, but gives a global temperature anomaly of only 0.17C:
The point I’m making is that global temperature can be significantly different, depending on how it is calculated and presented. Which way is the right way? More importantly, since monthly temperatures still fit into the scale of synoptic meteorology, i.e. affected by “weather”, does it even matter to the global warming debate?
Along the same lines, with year-end approching, we’ll soon see pushes from government and media sources to position 2013 in some rank of “warmest year ever”. With that in mind, here are some maps and temperature ranks to consider:
WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png
NCDC, using their century scale base period, says: “The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January–November) was 0.62°C” Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
GISS says only 0.19C so far for 2013, and it will likely go down with the cold December Arctic outbreak which has been seen in the Northern Hemisphere:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1212&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=reg
Global temperature on monthly and yearly time scales varies greatly depending on how it is calculated, how it is presented, and who presents it.
Which one is the real global temperature?
================================================================
Addendum: I have been wondering about that Russian red spot for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.
I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from steam pipes:
![russia-pipes[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/russia-pipes1.jpg?quality=83)
In the cities, it’s the municipality that supplies the hot water. There’s a huge network of giant pipes that move the water all over the city. It’s a closed circuit that eventually leads back to a steam plant – a huge factory that does nothing more than heat water and force it into the system.
The pipes enter practically every building within the city limits and the heat from uninsulated pipes (radiators) is what keeps everyone’s living space toasty warm throughout some extremely cold winters. A side benefit is that they never have to wait for the water to warm up in their showers!
– See more at: http://blog.arlomidgett.com/2012/01/16/thoughts-on-russia/#sthash.1gu8As1U.dpuf
While the silver pipes in photos above have insulated cladding, the steam pipes seen below are un-insulated:
The caption was telling: Smaller Russian era dwelling – blue is typical color. Pipes outside are for the steam heat that is distributed to all buildings.
Note the waste heat keeps the snow off the street in Siberia:
Above: Central heating, Novokuznetsk, Siberia, 1991 Photo by Bertien van Manen
See more about Russia at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
(The addendum was edited for clarity)
Related articles
- November 2013 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Toasty November Vaults 2013 Into Top 5 Warmest Years (climatecentral.org)
- November Was the Warmest November Since We Started Keeping Track (theatlantic.com)
- Earth had its warmest November on record (usatoday.com)
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Steven Mosher says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:39 pm
I’m confused. Why is NCEP modeling thermometers on rooftops?
Do the ones on roads fail after being run over by model trucks?
Ric Werme;
Do the ones on roads fail after being run over by model trucks?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Only the early model trucks. In the late model trucks the thermometer is inside the cab.
NOAA continues to lie and rewrite historical data Orwell style, and there is an obvious UHI in Russia.
I have personally been close to the weather station in Adler/Sochi, Rusia, near the Black Sea. I can say that this weather station in particular looked to me very, very well sited. I don’t have photos but as I am returning there in January I’ll see if I can take some. However I know nothing about the quality of the placement of the stations in the rest of Rusia.
You guys are focusing too much on the warm anomalies they are capturing and not enough on what they are *missing*. Look at the coverage gaps in that data and notice how they coincide with places that appear to be relatively cool in the atmospheric measures or the reanalysis. *That* is the primary source for the difference in ranks.
As for the Siberian winter hotspot, this is a very interesting pattern: there is a strong correspondence between dry, anticyclonic air masses, and the strongest cold season trends in the last 50-60 years. One underappreciated feature of the late twentieth century warming was just how much of it was warming of damn cold air. The warm air not so much.
Of course, obviously I have concerns about the effects of communism on weather reporting there 50 years ago, but it is interesting nonetheless.
It WAS mild, in Moscow anyhow. After snowing early. Reports were of fewer deaths of drunken Moscuvites – 95% down in last year. 130 are alive because they passed out on the pavement instead of snow. But please, tell us more about Swedes dying when the temp passes 25 in Stockholm.
The Russian anomaly assumes the following are true:
1. Current measurements are accurate and cover the entire region.
2. Throughout the 20th century, the recorded data was similarly accurate and comprehensive.
Percipient bloggers in this comment section suggest that there may be cogent socioeconomic reasons to suspect that point two may not be correct……..
Seems to still be pretty cold in Russia looking at snow cover
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2013/ims2013353.gif
< The city in South Siberia is situated on 55°22’17.58″ north latitude
Accurate to 30 centimeters…?
There appears to be a marked reduction in HadCRUT4 % global coverage:-
http://i40.tinypic.com/2yvwcwm.png
Data from:-
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4-gl.dat
Also see:-
“Hemispheric/global average data file format”
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
NCDC is so obviously biased, that their climate reports are increasingly of limited value.
Just bad luck they are in the cold part.
http://www.martingrund.de/pinguine/pinguincam2.htm#1
No beach party.
Latitude: 63°19’16” South
Longitude: 57°54’03” West
Now they go looking forward in steat of back.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/global-temperature-2014
A couple of posters have pointed to snow cover in Russia to try to refute the numbers given. It is a red herring. And is argued from temperate-climate-centric point of view.
The snow cover is only relevant if the usual temperatures are marginal for snow. For instance in Southern England a raise of this magnitude will certainly affect snow cover. The ground temperature would hardly get low enough for snow to accumulate, even if it could form and fall. The area we are talking about is way, way colder than required for snow formation even if it is .78C warmer than ‘normal’.
If anything the increased convection makes it more likely that snow will form.
That’s not to say the numbers aren’t suspect…but arguing they are suspect because there is a lot of snow cover is specious.
Steven Mosher says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:39 pm
Weatherbell is NOT OBSERVATIONS.
Weatherbell uses NCEP
NCEP is a MODEL not observations
NCEP uses datasources that are highly suspect. for example thermometers on rooftops. thermometers on roads
————————————————————————————————————————-
Thermometers on rooftops? Thermometers on roads?
Utterly shocking!
Thermometers of record only belong in car parks, and only if absolutely no car parks are available anywhere close, near an air-conditioner outlet. Everybody knows this!
What on earth were NCEP thinking?!
Mike Maguire says:
December 19, 2013 at 7:56 pm
The frigid, record cold in the US earlier this month and cold pattern for well over a month in North America and record warmth in Russia are very much related.
I like your explanation. I live in the northern part of Canada and we observe this a lot of the time.
The jet-stream pulls the cold Siberian air right down on us on its way south.
Naturally it is being replaced with warmer air. [-34C yesterday morn]
Also, faulty data seems to be a likely suspect for the extra “warmth”.
And, how about more info or comment on the magnetic north pole movement???
It’s more likely evidence of biased temperature reporting:
Russian burocrats adding on average 0.5 of a degree centigrade by rounding off upwards when reporting temperatures, i.p. in winter. To show the bosses in Moscow how good they care for for their minions.
NOAA is up to its old tricks. The red Siberian Hot Spot gives the layman the idea that Siberia is basking in in tropical temperatures. Most lay people don’t know that NOAA is depicting anomalies. If people want to know where the cold Siberian air masses are, they should look no further than North America. The atmosphere is dynamic, after-all.
Here in Germany it is currently much warmer than in the past 4 years at this time of year. And via eastern wind in winter we are influenced by weather from Russia; at least Berlin and the Northern German plains where no mountains stop wind from the east. So at least part of the “hot spot” in Russia must be real it seems to me.
According to Climate for You, Siberia develops semi permanent high pressure in winter due to extreme radiant cooling characteristic of the continental location and lack of sunlight. The northern hemispheres most extreme lows develop in valleys where inversion develops and temperatures are measured. In the summer and fall low pressure cyclones move across Siberia. The early Siberia snow cover in November would likely be associated with convection and latent heat release similar to spikes often seen in the tropics on satellite data. In addition inversions would not develop and temperatures would reflect the true atmospheric state as measured by satellite. Of course I only believe the Satellite data which is not as influenced by inversions siting and tampering issues.
WTF says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:40 pm
12.9′C 20th century average? I thought it was 15′C, oh wait they revised it to 14′C, damn I’m confused. Maybe that is their diabolical plan.
That 14 C is the yearly average. But it varies by 3.8 C throughout the year from 12.0 to 15.8 with January being the cold part. See:
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2013/03/misunderstanding-of-the-global-temperature-anomaly/
Alberta,
Living in Northern Canada, you get to live in an environment/place that us meteorologists greatly enjoy observing on weather maps and sometimes following especially close, like with this recent pattern(where the source region for some of our air masses is up there).
Out of curiosity, approx. what is your latitude and what time does the sun rise and set today, December 20?
It just so happens that there is a blob of heat the size of Russia centered on Russia? What are the odds of that?
REPLY: I have been wondering the same thing for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.
Most of people may consider it irrelevant but following may be worth noting :
Central Siberia in 1995 took over from the North Canada the North Hemisphere’s location of the magnetic ‘pole’, as you can see from the NOAA’s geomagnetic maps.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/F_map_mf_2010.pdf
it is evident that currently the geo-magnetic dipole has strong East Hemisphere bias (the SH – Australian side had also experienced what is claimed to be ‘unprecedented’ heat-wave.)
I did some research into GMF variability at the fulcrum of the magnetic field changes (at both hemispheres) and to my surprise found good correlation with the sunspot cycle long term changes.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/N-S-gmf.htm
Not much can be concluded from the above but in a way of a possible link to the temperatures variability this comment may have some relevance.
John Andrews says:
December 19, 2013 at 7:39 pm
Anthony, those pipes are clearly insulated. What you see on the outside is the galvanized steel outer shell that protects the insulation, fiberglass or asbestos, from the weather. Ask any union asbestos worker for a more clear explanation.
REPLY: Yes, the silver ones are, the ones from the photo with the blue house are not. I’ll clarify. – Anthony
——————————————————
Anthony, the lines that you identify as uninsulated look like they are not even connected. Regardless of that, uninsulated lines carrying cold water, hot water, or steam, in an environment where the temperatures regularly go below -10C will either freeze and possibly burst, or, in the case of steam, cause the steam to condense into water resulting in water hammer which will destroy a pipe in a very short time frame. Uninsulated lines will not last through a winter. P.S. Hot water lines do freeze – sometimes it seems they freeze faster than the cold water lines.
Mike Maguire says:
December 20, 2013 at 8:26 am
Alberta, ….
Out of curiosity, approx. what is your latitude and what time does the sun rise and set today, December 20?
Hello Mike, just in case you do not hear back from “Alberta”, here in Edmonton, Alberta, the latitude is 53.5 N and the sun rise is 8:48 A.M. and the sun set is 4:15 P.M.