Claim: November 2013 is the 'warmest ever' – but will the real November 2013 temperature please stand up?

Lots of clima-hullaballo this week in the media thanks NOAA and this announcement in NOAA’s “State of the Climate” report seen here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

They state:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).

Much of the global “record highest” claim hinges on this one point about Russia:

SOTC_Russia_Nov2013

Note the +5C anomalies in that region in the map cited by NCDC:201311[1]

Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

But, according to satellite temperatures, the ranking claimed by NCDC isn’t anywhere near to “record warmest”. Dr. John Christy gives these values for the satellite data sources of global temperature and their ranks:

  • UAH Nov 2013 9th warmest Nov (0.20 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
  • RSS Nov 2013 16th warmest Nov (0.22 C cooler than warmest Nov.)

And, when we look at the UAH map of the world, while Russia was certainly warmer, it wasn’t as warm as NCDC makes it to be: 

UAH_November-2013-map

Source: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

Other maps from GISS suggest the NCDC presentation might be stretching the November temperatures a bit in the SOTC report, possibly because of the NCDC choice of baseline period.

GISS says 0.40 in November for the 1981-2010 base period used by UAH:

GISS_LOTI_Nov2013

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=reg

….and just 0.38 in November for 1981-2010 base period if 250km smoothing used:

GISS_LOTI_Nov2013_250KM

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=reg

Clearly, how you calculate and present global temperature anomalies makes a difference in the answer you get for November.

The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.

For example if I tweak the GISS parameters to use the 20th century, we get this, a value of 0.76C above normal, which is closer to NCDC’s value:

GISS_LOTI_Nov2013_250KM_1900-2000

Source:  http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1901&base2=2000&radius=250&pol=reg

[Added: Also pointed out in comments NCDC has a lot of data gaps in Russia.

201311[1]

Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201311.gif

When the data finally arrives (due to late reporting stations that trickle in), one wonders what the smoothing over Russia will look like and how much the global temperature value for November changes. NOAA/NCDC has to produce “State of the Climate” report each month, and they often do so before all the data is in, but we don’t ever see any update of those values sent to the press. ]

Another source using the GHCN surface land data and surface ocean data in an NCEP analysis, WeatherBell, agrees that Russia was quite anomalously warm, but gives a global temperature anomaly of only 0.17C:

WeatherBell_ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_112013

The point I’m making is that global temperature can be significantly different, depending on how it is calculated and presented. Which way is the right way? More importantly, since monthly temperatures still fit into the scale of synoptic meteorology, i.e. affected by “weather”, does it even matter to the global warming debate?

Along the same lines, with year-end approching, we’ll soon see pushes from government and media sources to position 2013 in some rank of “warmest year ever”. With that in mind, here are some maps and temperature ranks to consider:

WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:

WeatherBell_ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd

Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

NCDC, using their century scale base period, says: “The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January–November) was 0.62°C” Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

NCDC_201301-201311
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201301-201311.gif

GISS says only 0.19C so far for 2013, and it will likely go down with the cold December Arctic outbreak which has been seen in the Northern Hemisphere:

GISS_LOTI_Jan-Nov2013

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1212&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=reg

Global temperature on monthly and yearly time scales varies greatly depending on how it is calculated, how it is presented, and who presents it.

Which one is the real global temperature?

================================================================

Addendum: I have been wondering about that Russian red spot for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.

I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from steam pipes:

russia-pipes[1]

In the cities, it’s the municipality that supplies the hot water.  There’s a huge network of giant pipes that move the water all over the city.  It’s a closed circuit that eventually leads back to a steam plant – a huge factory that does nothing more than heat water and force it into the system.

The pipes enter practically every building within the city limits and the heat from uninsulated pipes (radiators) is what keeps everyone’s living space toasty warm throughout some extremely cold winters.  A side benefit is that they never have to wait for the water to warm up in their showers!

– See more at: http://blog.arlomidgett.com/2012/01/16/thoughts-on-russia/#sthash.1gu8As1U.dpuf

 Above – As we left Russia I wanted to capture these grand pipes that travel beside the streets. This is the way all the buildings and city residences are centrally heated – via steam
http://williammorrisandmichele.blogspot.com/2010/10/moscow-to-vilnius-via-minsk.html

While the silver pipes in photos above have insulated cladding, the steam pipes seen below are un-insulated:

russian_heating_pipes1

The caption was telling: Smaller Russian era dwelling – blue is typical color. Pipes outside are for the steam heat that is distributed to all buildings.

Note the waste heat keeps the snow off the street  in Siberia:

Central_heating_russia

Above: Central heating, Novokuznetsk, Siberia, 1991 Photo by Bertien van Manen

See more about Russia at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/

(The addendum was edited for clarity)

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of

Anybody stop to think that this anomaly might be something other than natural? It just so happens that there is a blob of heat the size of Russia centered on Russia? What are the odds of that?
REPLY: I have been wondering the same thing for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is. I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from un-insulated steam pipes See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
I’ve updated the post to reflect this – Anthony

The “real” one is the one that promotes the meme. The truth is the casualty.

I should clarify that I mean it could be caused by someone messing with the satellite data in some way, or Russian military equipment possible messing with the satellite data. As is, the very existence of an anomaly like that seems rather odd to me.

otsar

Bad timing for this news release, if the main stream press does their usual thing. The warming news will fall on deaf cold ears

http://oi41.tinypic.com/11w3v5z.jpg
RSS vs GISS, the same normal period: check for yourself.

Espen

Anthony, as I commented on Bob Tisdale’s recent thread on global temperatures, something funny is going on with the NOAA data: If you go to their site and choose to show only land data, then suddenly there’s extremely sparse coverage for November:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201311.gif
Note that there’s absolutely no coverage in several tropical areas where WeatherBell reports cold anomalies (e.g. in Africa and the Amazonas).
(Besides, a strong positive anomaly in that part of Russia means that temperatures were just above freezing in November. One degree milder in cool Russia means a smaller energy difference than 1 degree cooler in the tropics – global mean temperature is such a silly measure after all!)

Jim Cripwell

I don’t know where I read it, but the Russian data may depend on what period the base line was measured. Back in the days if the USSR, the amount of fuel you received for next year’s winter, depended on how cold it was this year. So, it was normal for places in Siberia to routinely report temperatures which were significantly colder than they actually were.

@njsnowfan

Thanks Anthony, Glad to see articles like and I do know they take lots of time to put together.

MattN

I am simply not buying that it was really THAT hot over an area THAT big. Something is not right. Have we looked at the raw station data to make sure there isn’t anything stupid there?

“The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.”
There is nothing ‘accepted” about a 30 year base period. You can pick any base period you want. You dont want to go below 30, but picking a longer period will give you better statistics when it comes to measuring extrema.
REPLY: Sorry Steve, you are wrong on that count…yes, there is an acceptance of a 30 year period, so says the World Meteorological Organization:

Climate Normals
Climate “normals” are reference points used by climatologists to compare current climatological trends to that of the past or what is considered “normal”. A Normal is defined as the arithmetic average of a climate element (e.g. temperature) over a 30-year period. A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends. The current climate normal period is calculated from 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990.

Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_data_and_products.php
– Anthony

YorkshireChris

NOAA’s map makes no sense for the UK, Ireland or for Spain – particularly for Spain, Ireland and Scotland which NOAA suggests all had warmer than average Novembers in 2013. If you look at the Spanish Government’s own web-site they confirm that November 2013 was cooler than average and in the ‘very cold’ category in the whole southwest half of the country. Equally in England it was a full 1C/2F cooler than the 1981-2010 period according to the UK met office and was also cooler than normal in Scotland. The Irish met service also confirms a cooler than average November. This illustrates that NOAA’s map bears no relation to reality in these particular countries. I suspect others looking at data in other countries would find something similar.

WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
###########
Weatherbell is NOT OBSERVATIONS.
Weatherbell uses NCEP
NCEP is a MODEL not observations
NCEP uses datasources that are highly suspect. for example thermometers on rooftops. thermometers on roads.

WTF

12.9’C 20th century average? I thought it was 15’C, oh wait they revised it to 14’C, damn I’m confused. Maybe that is their diabolical plan.

A. Scott

I replied to a lathered up global warming zealot waving around NCDC report as “proof” global warming was real and no “pause” existed, yesterday:
Plenty of “highest on record” comments in the NCDC report. All carefully worded. So what is the period of “record” they are using? Its the last 134 years appx 1900 to present. Which is pretty meaningless in terms of “climate cycle” context. And then notice the several different base periods for various of their claims. Manipulating the period you are comparing against is a simple way to manipulate the result.
As to their key point:
“The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average …”
How terrible. Combined global land and sea temps combined for NOVEMBER was 0.78 degree C above the 20th century average. Sounds reasonably accurate to me – most skeptics agree temps have increased over the last 134 years.
Of course if we read a little further we get a far more useful data point from them:
“The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the YEAR-TO-DATE (January–November) was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average” …. so the AVERAGE YEAR TO DATE global mean combined land and sea temps are just 0.62 degree C above the 20th century average. Using the total, year to date data, the global mean combined land and sea temp of just 0.62 deg C over the last 134 years.
Which shows the HADCRUT, HADSST, and RSS MSU data, and other data largely matches the NCDC GCHN data and conclusions.
The NCDC climate “report” carefully crafted its talking points to provide maximum scaremongering value. It also carefully ignores the inconvenient pause.And they bury the graphs they do, quite clearly, show the pause.
I’ll help them out – you can see their graph below. It is clear there has been no appreciable change – no warming – in the combined global mean land and sea temp data, since at least 2000 … and likely earlier.
Note that NOAA has largely “disappeared” the large warm spike in 1998. Which also eliminates the warmists claim that the “pause” is only discernible if one cherry picks and includes the unusually warm 1998 as the start point.
This simply is not true. You can ignore the rapid oscillations of the 1997-1999 period that include the warm spike in 1998, and use 2000 as a start point and you’ll get 14 years with no warming.
The data shows that there has been no increase in global mean temp for at least 14 years …none if by land, none if by air, none if by sea, and as this NCDC report shows, none if by land and sea combined.
Add the NCDC’s GHCN combined land and sea data set to the HADCRUT, HADSST and RSS MSU global mean land, sea and lower troposphere air temps respectively, which all show the “pause” – that we have seen NO warming since at least 2000 or earlier.
Buried at the end of the report NOAA’s 2013 year to date graph from the “State of the Climate” article is included below. As with the HADCRUT, HADSST, RSS US and other data sets, a simple “eyeball” view shows pretty clearly that there has been no warming for 14 years or more:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/lo-hem/201301-201311.gif

Thanks for the reply, Anthony. Those steam pipes alone, uninsulated… The urban heat island effect is already bad enough. A factory just for producing steam and then pumping that steam all over a city? That HAS to have an affect!
The make a point on other possibilities, I was once told about (though this is unconfirmed) a military base in Manitoba (Canada) that uses radar jamming to hide the base. The problem is that weather satellites see the jamming as rain! I wonder if something in Russia is doing something similar to the temperature satellites, if such a thing is possible.

phodges

So the cooked data shows “hottest ever” and the uncooked data does not.
Uhuh. NOAA, GISS, etc are not measured temperatures. It is value added, adjusted, homogenised, etc. Or spliced and diced as they do at BEST.
That .6 degree is all in the adjustments.

HGW xx/7

If we can credit the climate cause with anything worthy of note, it’s the truly breathtaking array of reds they have run through and embellished our maps with, oft without perspective or scale. Every one of them now looks like we wrapped up the teenaged extras from Carrie in them. Lucky for Russia, they’ve moved beyond ‘blood red’ to ‘tonight we chacha with Lucifer red’. Congrats!

rogerknights

Jim Cripwell says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:30 pm
I don’t know where I read it, but the Russian data may depend on what period the base line was measured. Back in the days if the USSR, the amount of fuel you received for next year’s winter, depended on how cold it was this year. So, it was normal for places in Siberia to routinely report temperatures which were significantly colder than they actually were.

Let’s suppose the situation were reversed for some reason. For instance, let’s say that air conditioning electricity was priced lower if the preceding year had been hotter in some huge and imaginary rich tropical country, and reported temperatures had been elevated in the past as a result.
Instantly, an IPOCC team would be dispatched to interrogate knowledgeable persons there to verify if this had happened, with a view to “getting rid” of that warm anomaly by subsequently adjusting its temperatures down.
Three guesses why such an investigation and adjustment won’t occur wrt Russia.

“Anybody stop to think that this anomaly might be something other than natural? It just so happens that there is a blob of heat the size of Russia centered on Russia? What are the odds of that?”
This particular area of the world is known for having the highest seasonal range. The difference between coldest and warmest month is huge. The blob is bigger than Russia and is not uniform over Russia. In general on a month to month basis there will always be hot zones and cool zones. Its quite silly to focus on Russia being hot or the US being cold, but folks on both sides will do this. Also with less ice in the arctic we can expect just this sort of thing
REPLY: Note also that the Russian data is full of holes:

It will be interesting to see what happens when late CLIMAT reports come in. One of the problems with NCDC is deadline pressure in issuing such reports, they don’t wait for all the data to show up.
-Anthony

Resourceguy

And here I thought an oscillation involved some areas being down while others are up. The Arctic oscillation rotated from Siberia to the U.S. and then Europe and the Middle East. That pattern was predicted by private forecast groups for commodity traders but missed by government forecasters. It appears that the focus on all things warming and evil takes time and talent away from other competencies. Just ask EPA and their CIA workforce.

gopal panicker

Temperature varies from place to place…from hour to hour…from season to season…the whole concept of a ‘global average temperature’…is nonsense

Vodka Lank

I wonder if recent Russian high temperatures have anything to do with vodka rationing.
The end of the 1980s saw a huge Russian budget deficit and sky-high inflation. Severe shortages of basic food supplies led to the reintroduction of the war-time system of rationing – including vodka.
Apparently, food and especially vodka rations were based on low temperatures of each district or town and communities competed for food and vodka allocation. Temperature records were often exaggerated on the low side to make sure rations were high. Clearly this would produce an artificially low bias on temperature records during that period and make current temperatures seem high.

hunter

Steve,
But now there is more ice in the Arctic……but your point is well taken. Large land locked areas, far from moderating influence of sea or ocean, will have larger swings in temps. The listing of metrics by their place in the record book seems to be very misleading. A lot of the data runs the ‘records’ are based on are quite limited. But the ranking itself seems to be potentially very misleading. Your take on this would very much appreciated.

PaulH

If nothing else, those steam pipes are a real eyesore.

philjourdan says: December 19, 2013 at 1:11 pm
The “real” one is the one that promotes the meme. The truth is the casualty.
Indeed as things stand, a more alarming value will achieve a higher rate of replication in the media.
http://wearenarrative.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/the-cagw-memeplex-a-cultural-creature/

The BOM in Australia is already getting ready to say that Sydney has had its hottest year ever, and that station’s records go back to 1959 or thereabouts. However, I had a look at the station near where I live in Western Sydney, and it’s been quite an average year. The record only goes back to 1995, but nevertheless, there have been hotter years previously.

Gene Selkov

I don’t think urban heat losses, however substantial, can explain all of this anomaly. Russia is neither densely nor uniformly populated, and on a map like this all towns combined will hardly fill a pixel.
It is true that towns leak a lot of heat due to central heating, although recently many central heating systems were dismantled or upgraded to use local regulators, so many people today can turn their heat down instead of opening the window. In the old days, we lived with windows open all year round; the only difference between seasons was in how widely open they were. I say, that was a much healthier lifestyle. Permanently fresh air at somebody else’s expense.
But even then, the effects were localised. I remember seeing CIA-sourced winter-time infrared images of parts of Moscow and of my home town showing multiple intense hot spots. The resolution was so good I could see my car parked near the building where I lived. The story was that the authors of those images were puzzled, theorising about the kinds of activities that could create such a weird infrared signature. They did not see that anywhere else in the world and could not believe it was simply due to central heating and open windows. But in the big picture of things, those hot spots looked like sparsely located point sources. Spaces between buildings appeared just as cold as the empty field out of town.

Robert W Turner

These temp anomaly maps would be great to see presented on a map of just the Northern Hemisphere (centered on the North Pole). I imagine that the Arctic would look quite ridiculous (unbelievable perhaps) with below average temperatures in the Western Hemisphere right next to greatly above average temperatures in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Les Johnson

Anthony (and Mosher):
The WMO disagrees with both of you. The WMO states that climate (except precipitation) can use 5 to 10 years as the base period.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/documents/WMO_100_en.pdf
Section 4.8.1
In general, the most recent 5- to 10-year period of record has as much predictive value as a 30-year record. Shorter reference periods allow normals to be calculated for a much wider range of stations than is usually possible for a standard normals reference period. For elements that show a substantial underlying trend (such as mean temperature), predictive accuracy is improved by updating the averages and period averages frequently.
My emphasis.

Scott

The sea ice page has been showing extensive snow cover in that Russian hot spot area for quite some time … at least a month it’s been this way … eyeballing it, it is further south than 5 years ago.To me it seems like if was well warmer than normal there would be less snow cover.

james griffin

Plenty of cold in America and Global Sea Ice 7th highest in 35 years….yawn. Please drop your data sets of 20 years…134 years et al. You need to compare over thousands and millions of years. This is the hottest we have ever been?…Someone is having a laugh. So what if the trend is up since the Solar Minimum’s…..the overall temp graph for our Holocene clearly shows we are much cooler than 10,000 years ago so the overall trend line is down.

Matt G

When ever Russia has a significant warm anomaly in places it always skewers global temperatures by the awful lack of stations there that rely on 1200 km interpolating. Only reason why there is a huge massive area well above average. No other data when not limited, shows much smaller areas with a anomaly anywhere near that big. Illustrates how interpolating at least 250 km to 1200 km messes up the data and gives false readings. The satellite data is superior in this sense by far and a shame media hype such alarmism when only cherry picking one data set that has been crudely put together.

MattN

Looking back at some GISS maps, its seems clear that Russia has massive temperature swings. Gotta be the geography. But go look at some plots. One month they’ll be large sections 3-5C below normal, the next month the same area is 3-5C above normal. It looks like the “average” there is an average of extremes which NEVER happens. Huge fluctuations seem to be completely normal.

Berényi Péter

It is not beyond president Putin‘s regime to make Russian met stations ramp up temps a bit, just to con the West and keep the ball rolling. They profit tremendously on self inflicted decommissioning of western industry. As the Soviet Union met its fate, the KGB survived intact, it owns the country.

Eliza

Steve Mosher But there is more ice in the arctic!
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

MarkB

REPLY: Sorry Steve, you are wrong on that count…yes, there is an acceptance of a 30 year period, so says the World Meteorological Organization:
Climate Normals
Climate “normals” are reference points used by climatologists to compare current climatological trends to that of the past or what is considered “normal”. A Normal is defined as the arithmetic average of a climate element (e.g. temperature) over a 30-year period. A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends. The current climate normal period is calculated from 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990.
Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_data_and_products.php
– Anthony
*********************************************************************************************************
So to summarize there is a standardized 30 year reference period spanning 1961-1990 which is apparently not used in any of the graphics? Got to love standards – there’s so many to choose from . . .

Jimbo

I thought cherry picking season hasn’t yet started! OK, let me start my cherry picking then. Almost 1 year ago to the very day it was reported:

LiveScience
Why Russia’s Cold Snap Is So Deadly
December 20, 2012
If any nation on Earth is accustomed to dealing with a harsh winter, it would be Russia. But from the farthest reaches of Siberia to downtown Moscow, the Russian people are being pummeled by a winter so brutal it’s shattering cold-weather records across the continent — and it’s only December.
As temperatures plunge as low as –minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 50 degrees Celsius) in some areas, the Pravda news site reports that 45 people have died of causes related to the subfreezing weather; 21 people froze to death in just one day. Hundreds more have been hospitalized with frostbite and other conditions.
This winter is the coldest on record since 1938,….
http://www.livescience.com/25737-russia-cold-snap.html

There are many examples of cold WEATHER records around the world as well as odd snow in places like the Amazon and the Mediterranean. Need I go on? Have I made may point?
For regular updates on the sure signs of a new ICE AGE see below.
http://iceagenow.info/

Jimbo

Mosher,
What does the IPCC define as the period for climate?

Werner Brozek

Take a look at HadCRUT4 and GISS for 2013. HadCRUT4 has been offset by 0.18 to make them both the same for January. Look at the many wild swings in opposite directions during the year. Something does not look quite right.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2013/offset:0.18/plot/gistemp/from:2013

Bill Hunter

Hmmm, record heat in Russia for November! Thank God!

Duster

Steven Mosher says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:39 pm
WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
###########
Weatherbell is NOT OBSERVATIONS.
Weatherbell uses NCEP
NCEP is a MODEL not observations
NCEP uses datasources that are highly suspect. for example thermometers on rooftops. thermometers on roads.

So, even Weatherbell is too warm. Interesting.

Jimbo

In January of this year Russia saw more SURE signs of GLOBAL COOLING. I like this weather is now the climate game. 😉 We must act now! As you can see I can go on and on about cold WEATHER records making my case for an upcoming ice age. 😉

Record Cold Continues in Siberia
I R K U T S K, Russia, Jan. 22
…….
Winter in Siberia is usually spectacular and always very cold.
But this winter has been relentless. Week after week, temperatures have been dipping to 50 below zero. Siberians are accustomed to the cold, but they were completely unprepared for temperatures this low…….
Not surprisingly, the hospital in the city of Irkutsk is overwhelmed. In just one week, the cold killed 17 people, and doctors amputated the limbs of at least 70 others who suffered severe frostbite. Pausing for just a short period of time could prove extremely dangerous — one man who stopped to fix his car had to have both his hands and feet amputated because of frostbite……

uah and rss temp. data is the most accurate we have.

Jimbo

So a warm November in Russia is bad? What kind of sick thinking is this?

Jimbo

Duster says:
December 19, 2013 at 3:02 pm

Steven Mosher says:
December 19, 2013 at 1:39 pm
WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
###########

Weatherbell is NOT OBSERVATIONS.
Weatherbell uses NCEP
NCEP is a MODEL not observations
NCEP uses datasources that are highly suspect. for example thermometers on rooftops. thermometers on roads.

So, even Weatherbell is too warm. Interesting.

Mosher has just hoisted himself on his own petard and argues like a sceptic without knowing it.

Duster

On a different note, I spent time in Ukraine in the mid-90s. The distinguishing characteristic of the – barely – post-Soviet infrastructure was that it was mostly falling apart. For instance they don’t have trees of significant size in Russia so the middle and lower range electrical transmission lines, that we – in the US – suspend on wooden poles, are instead on reinforced concrete poles. The scary part is that the concrete doesn’t handle cold all that well – or theirs doesn’t – and the lower meter or two of the poles often consisted of nothing but exposed steel reinforcing rod.
Poor and badly conditioned power supplies are a fact of life. In our project we needed clean power for or computers which were switchable but couldn’t handle the filthy power supply at any voltage. The line supply, nominally 240 volts, was measured oscillating from about 150 to over 300 volts within less than a minute. Electrical motors frequently failed in spectacular fashion. Our surge protectors, we carried a case of 12 in with us, all died within two weeks. I don’t think of them lasted longer than two and a half days. Happily, we had, despite insistence from Russian colleagues that it was unnecessary, brought in a small US built transformer that stepped the power down and produced clean, steady output. The Russian electrician became a convert to the idea of immigrating to the west after watching the input and output meters for 15 minutes and shaking his head. He expressed the opinion that there might be a market there.

herkimer

With respect to November 2013 being the hottest November. Clearly this was an isolated event that mostly happened in Russia and Asia due to an extra high positive AO. For Contiguous United States ,November was the 49 th warmest and most of North America was below normal temperatures.

Most of ordinary people are concerned about and judge global warming by events in their area; in Central England both maximum and minimum daily temperatures this November were lower than in 2012

jai mitchell

No, It really IS warmer in Russia,
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/features/no-snow-in-siberia-locals-marvel-and-worry-at-the-snow-shortage/
As in many areas of Siberia this winter, the thermometer is reluctant to plummet to customary bone-chilling temperatures. Last night when we checked outside, it was a mere minus 3C. Day time temperatures lately have been warmer. As mother-of-two Anastasia said from Krasnoyarsk: ‘I’m reading a book to my children and I hear the tapping of the rain in my ear. Rain? Rain??? Rain in the middle of December? In Siberia?’

michael hart

The ‘missing heat’ sure gets around….