Lots of clima-hullaballo this week in the media thanks NOAA and this announcement in NOAA’s “State of the Climate” report seen here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
They state:
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).
Much of the global “record highest” claim hinges on this one point about Russia:
Note the +5C anomalies in that region in the map cited by NCDC:![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
But, according to satellite temperatures, the ranking claimed by NCDC isn’t anywhere near to “record warmest”. Dr. John Christy gives these values for the satellite data sources of global temperature and their ranks:
- UAH Nov 2013 9th warmest Nov (0.20 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
- RSS Nov 2013 16th warmest Nov (0.22 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
And, when we look at the UAH map of the world, while Russia was certainly warmer, it wasn’t as warm as NCDC makes it to be:
Source: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Other maps from GISS suggest the NCDC presentation might be stretching the November temperatures a bit in the SOTC report, possibly because of the NCDC choice of baseline period.
GISS says 0.40 in November for the 1981-2010 base period used by UAH:
….and just 0.38 in November for 1981-2010 base period if 250km smoothing used:
Clearly, how you calculate and present global temperature anomalies makes a difference in the answer you get for November.
The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.
For example if I tweak the GISS parameters to use the 20th century, we get this, a value of 0.76C above normal, which is closer to NCDC’s value:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1901&base2=2000&radius=250&pol=reg
[Added: Also pointed out in comments NCDC has a lot of data gaps in Russia.
![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/20131111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201311.gif
When the data finally arrives (due to late reporting stations that trickle in), one wonders what the smoothing over Russia will look like and how much the global temperature value for November changes. NOAA/NCDC has to produce “State of the Climate” report each month, and they often do so before all the data is in, but we don’t ever see any update of those values sent to the press. ]
Another source using the GHCN surface land data and surface ocean data in an NCEP analysis, WeatherBell, agrees that Russia was quite anomalously warm, but gives a global temperature anomaly of only 0.17C:
The point I’m making is that global temperature can be significantly different, depending on how it is calculated and presented. Which way is the right way? More importantly, since monthly temperatures still fit into the scale of synoptic meteorology, i.e. affected by “weather”, does it even matter to the global warming debate?
Along the same lines, with year-end approching, we’ll soon see pushes from government and media sources to position 2013 in some rank of “warmest year ever”. With that in mind, here are some maps and temperature ranks to consider:
WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png
NCDC, using their century scale base period, says: “The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January–November) was 0.62°C” Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
GISS says only 0.19C so far for 2013, and it will likely go down with the cold December Arctic outbreak which has been seen in the Northern Hemisphere:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1212&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=reg
Global temperature on monthly and yearly time scales varies greatly depending on how it is calculated, how it is presented, and who presents it.
Which one is the real global temperature?
================================================================
Addendum: I have been wondering about that Russian red spot for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.
I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from steam pipes:
![russia-pipes[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/russia-pipes1.jpg?quality=83)
In the cities, it’s the municipality that supplies the hot water. There’s a huge network of giant pipes that move the water all over the city. It’s a closed circuit that eventually leads back to a steam plant – a huge factory that does nothing more than heat water and force it into the system.
The pipes enter practically every building within the city limits and the heat from uninsulated pipes (radiators) is what keeps everyone’s living space toasty warm throughout some extremely cold winters. A side benefit is that they never have to wait for the water to warm up in their showers!
– See more at: http://blog.arlomidgett.com/2012/01/16/thoughts-on-russia/#sthash.1gu8As1U.dpuf
While the silver pipes in photos above have insulated cladding, the steam pipes seen below are un-insulated:
The caption was telling: Smaller Russian era dwelling – blue is typical color. Pipes outside are for the steam heat that is distributed to all buildings.
Note the waste heat keeps the snow off the street in Siberia:
Above: Central heating, Novokuznetsk, Siberia, 1991 Photo by Bertien van Manen
See more about Russia at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
(The addendum was edited for clarity)
Related articles
- November 2013 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Toasty November Vaults 2013 Into Top 5 Warmest Years (climatecentral.org)
- November Was the Warmest November Since We Started Keeping Track (theatlantic.com)
- Earth had its warmest November on record (usatoday.com)
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@ur momisugly _Jim says:
December 19, 2013 at 4:32 pm
You are almost certainly correct. Any chemical engineer with chemical plant or refinery experience would instantly recognize this installation. Insulation is usually quite fragile, and the covering is intended to provide some mechanical protection. Unfortunately too often the insulation is fiberglass which is cheap and effective but also a sponge. Anywhere that the protective covering is breached allows rain to saturate the insulation and now that section of pipe becomes a more effective radiator than if it were naked to the air. In the absence of additional water intrusion it will dry out only very slowly. Better is to use a calcium silicate based solid insulation product that had very low water absorption and suitable to 1,200F. Or you could use a closed-cell isocyanurate as long as you stay below 300F.
_Jim says: December 19, 2013 at 4:32 pm
Seems like a pretty good $0.02. Some perspective …
http://www.districtenergy.org/assets/pdfs/CHP_Case_Studies/MoscowDistrictHeating.pdf
jai mitchell –
3 June: RT: Snow in June: Russia’s Siberian town in absolute anomaly (PHOTOS, VIDEO)
A layer of snow on the second day of summer has put the citizens of the Russian city of Kemerovo completely out of humor.
Meteorologists say the anomaly occurred because a cyclone brought cold Arctic air from Kara Sea region into Siberia dropping, temperature to lows typical for summer north of the Arctic Circle.
Bloggers were at a loss when commenting the issue…
The city in South Siberia is situated on 55°22’17.58″ north latitude but even for that region -2 Celsius on June 2 morning is over the top…
This spring has been sort of cold in the Kemerovo Region, which witnessed snow in early May and an emergency extension of the heating season. No wonder that people have been waiting for warm summer days just like for manna from heaven, but instead got snowflakes…
http://rt.com/news/siberia-june-snow-kemerovo-130/
26 Oct: Bloomberg: If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now
Snow falling over Siberia is raising the prospect for frigid temperatures in New York come January…
In September, 2.36 million square kilometers (911,000 square miles) of northern Europe and Asia were covered by snow, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. That compared with the 1981-2010 mean of 1.5 million…
“It’s running well above normal,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, a commercial forecaster in Bethesda, Maryland. “Through the last week of September, it’s the highest snow total in Eurasia since 1977.” …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html
2 Dec: Coloradoan: Tuesday forecast: Siberian freeze to bring snow, bitter cold
A weather nosedive in Fort Collins this week could pull temperatures from the 60s to 10 degrees below zero as a Siberian system blows into Colorado.
“It’s basically from the coldest spot on the Earth right now,” said Don Day, meteorologist with DayWeather in Cheyenne. “All the stars are lining up to direct very cold air right out of Siberia just north of Alaska, straight down into the south.”…
http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20131202/NEWS01/312020015/Tuesday-forecast-Siberian-freeze-bring-snow-bitter-cold?nclick_check=1
_Jim says:
December 19, 2013 at 4:32 pm
—————————————
You are entirely correct. The pipes in the picture are insulated with cladding and run above ground – likely because the ground is permafrost. I have worked with exactly that type of insulation for external steam lines and you can see the same sort of piping at many places in northern Canada and Alaska as well. http://watersewerchallenge.alaska.gov/images/ArcticPipeCross.jpg
Not sure about Russia’s “high temperatures” but if there it’s the warm snow.
This is nuts, for nuts only.
I drive in and out of my local UHI on a daily basis. The UHI can be up to 10 F higher than the surrounding area. Emphasis on the ISLAND designation. UHI is just that, an island of air subverted by our activity, but does not migrate from its core. As areas grow, the UHI area grows and intensifies, thus warming appears to be taking place, which is of course bogus. I can’t figure out why weather people are so married to these UHI stations. They have no bearing or relative measure of the general area beyond their specific location. Airport stations are there so pilots can take off and land safely within the aircraft performance specifications.
From the original above (by Watts):
I too would strongly recommend the first phrase in the story above be at least corrected to “poorly installed, poorly insulated, poorly maintained and rapidly deteriorating central steam and condensate water pipes” But, with a central power station, centrally administered in a don’t pay” = “don’t care” = “don’t fix” economy, that sends steam and hot water everywhere to all users, the losses and “waste” are even more exaggerated: Too hot? Open the window a bit. Ignore poorly closing doors or poor fitting windows or deteriorating door and window seals. Leave the front door open for a few seconds longer as you step outside.
All these losses add up to increased UHI.
So Russia is slightly warmer this Nov?
Thats nice for those in the siberian regions, but this is a hail mary headline as the cold bites in the heavily populated regions of the northern hemisphere.
As the team desperation increases I suspect the rumoured heat waves will grow where the weather stations don’t go.
Just like Trenberth’s amazing hotspot,as it may only exist in the minds of the alarmed, it is fair to say it is probably in the same place they have their heads inserted.
Of course I am still open to some empirical evidence of manmade global warming, after all these years, all that money, surely the team can produce something better than obsessing over 0.8C increase since 1850, when the quality of the measurement reading for most of that time is +/-1 degree, with a similar instrument error. I love the logic, we have a 2degree error range at best, anything less than that is noise.
I can glean more meaningful information by looking for Jesus in the white noise of a TV .
Climatology is less accurate than the soothsayers of old.
what is the stated error bar? This week?
0.8C +/- 4C ? Adjusted by?
I would like to take the opportunity as I gavel this meeting to order to welcome all the attendees present to the first annual Engineers and Pedants Society meeting …
/fun and ‘funning’
.
At first, I had my doubts. But I downloaded the GISS homogenized data, and station list and selected all stations >= 45 North and >= 35 East. I calculated the 1951-1980 normals and departures for those stations. There were a whole slew of +5 to +8 anomalies. Tobol’sk even had +9.4. I took a closer look at it. The GISS data indicated a normal of -9.6 and a November value of -0.2. The site http://rp5.ru/Weather_archive_in_Tobolsk served as independant confirmation of the November 2013 monthly value of -0.2.
at jai mitchell’s Siberian Times’ link, there are pics of siberians from Tomsk in swim-suits to illustrate how warm it is, however, russians are a hardy lot:
19 Feb 2013: UK Daily Mail: Aren’t you worried about frostbite, ladies? Bikini snowboarders of Siberia take to slopes in SWIMWEAR despite -40C temperatures in crazy new fad
COMMENT by justme:
I grew up in Alaska, and I can remember ladies there skiing in bikinis when I was 7 or 8 years old. (No snowboarding back then.) I’m 57 now, so we’re talking 5 decades ago! Nothing new under the sun, I’m afraid!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2280396/Bikini-snowboarders-Siberia-slopes-SWIMWEAR-despite-40C-temperatures.html
I sometimes wish the word “anomaly” were never used again in climate science. The good guys lost about three-quarters of the PR battle when the other guys sneaked “anomalies” in as a means of understanding Earth’s non-global, non-mean non-temperature.
The Arctic sea ice along the Russian suggests that temperatures were near average or even cooler than normal
East Siberian Sea had ice slightly above normal http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.9.jpg
Latpev Sea ice was bounced between average and slightly below average http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.8.jpg
and although the Kara Sea ice was still below average there was about 175% more ice than November 2012 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.jpg
Anthony, those pipes are clearly insulated. What you see on the outside is the galvanized steel outer shell that protects the insulation, fiberglass or asbestos, from the weather. Ask any union asbestos worker for a more clear explanation.
REPLY: Yes, the silver ones are, the ones from the photo with the blue house are not. I’ll clarify. – Anthony
Mosher: ” Its quite silly to focus on Russia being hot or the US being cold, but folks on both sides will do this.”
Almost as silly as the concept of a global temperature, global average temperature, global mean temperature, and anomalies thereof.
It appears that there is a lot of cherry picking going on.. 20 year trend ?? Then missing areas of cool areas in the NOAA GISS data sets…?? Looks like some people are trying to create the emergency again.. They must have taken the Ethics Class at Penn State from MM…
In America, you have browser to open tabs. In Soviet Russia, browser keeps tabs on you.
In America, you catch cold. In Soviet Russia, cold catches you.
In America, you warm thermometer. In Soviet Russia…
The frigid, record cold in the US earlier this month and cold pattern for well over a month in North America and record warmth in Russia are very much related.
Some of the coldest air masses in the Northern Hemisphere frequently form over Siberia and vicinity during the Winter months. At these high latitudes, there is very little daylight at this time of year and in fact in Northern parts of Siberia, the sun sets and it stays dark for many weeks.
In the absence of milder air being transported in from distant locations, this massive land mass is able to radiate heat out for almost 24 hours a day(depending on cloud cover) and get colder and colder and colder.
At times during a typical Winter, weather systems with strong winds will dislodge large chunks of this frigid air and transport it bodily in the direction of the steering currents/jet stream.
This obviously causes bone chilling cold that developed in Siberia to effect places thousands of miles away.
This year, we’ve had a blocking pattern with one of the anchors being a huge/anomalous Northeast Pacific upper level high that has persisted for over 6 weeks(if my memory is correct).
Downstream from this high has been an upper level trough in Central/Eastern Canada.
The flow/steering currents between these systems has been such that it has been transporting huge air masses, bodily from Siberia that move across the Arctic and into northern portions of North America/Canada.
There has been an almost constant supply of these air masses, some of which continue south thru Canada into the US. Canada is normally very cold at this time of year but these air masses are even colder than what is average for Canada.
This Arctic air, while traveling south thru mostly snow covered terrain and the long nights in Canada has not been modified a great deal by the time it crossed the US border.
At the same time, when these frigid air masses move out of Siberia/Russia, they are replaced by milder(relative to average) air masses from places that are not as cold.
This typically happens a few times every Winter and helps Siberia to warm a bit,temporarily, then resume getting colder and colder and colder again……..until the sun starts climbing in the sky later in Winter.
Unlike most Winters, over the last 7 weeks or so, including much of Novembert, the movement of air out of Siberia, aimed in the direction of Canada, then sometimes continuing into the US, has been relentless. This has meant an almost constant flow of milder air from milder regions into Siberia/Russia, while a number of days later, North America is in the deep freeze.
In recent cold Winters, a key factor has been a very negative AO. That atmospheric set up comes from an upper level/blocking Greenland high and below it, farther south into the Eastern US is an upper level trough. This year, the AO has been strongly positive most of the time during these cold outbreaks.
Steven Mosher says:
NCEP is a MODEL not observations
NCEP uses datasources that are highly suspect. for example thermometers on rooftops. thermometers on roads.
—
Thanks, Mosh. This is undoubtedly the funniest thing I have read on this site.
Mosh railing on Models, who would have thunk it.
“A side benefit is that they never have to wait for the water to warm up in their showers!”
Not a side effect, it is intentional: normal “cold shower” water would freeze and burst any pipes.
Any technical Russian can tell you that.
Surface temperature and satellite-measured lower troposphere temperature often correlate poorly in Arctic areas in/near wintertime, and also at other times of the year over water or ice. This is because the air is stable due to low (sometimes negative at some altitudes) lapse rate. If the surface is unusually warm but convection to 2-3 kilometers above the surface does not occur, then the satellite-measured regional lower tropospheric temperature can fail to fully show an uptick in surface temperature.
So it’s not greenhouse warming, but rather, all those hot water pipes running through those vast Russian cities that’s causing global warming? The logic is bullet-proof.
Any discussion of “global temperature” is pointless.
http://www.l4patterns.com/uploads/local-vs-global.pdf
Gene Selkov says:
December 19, 2013 at 2:11 pm
Your comment shows that you do not understand how localized heating from man’s activities can theoretically effect the thermometer records. If the recording thermometers are located in the tiny “pixel” along with the habitation, your thermometer readings will differ from those taken in a truly pristine area away from man’s activities. And most recording thermometers are naturally located near populated areas. Note that I am not claiming that UHI is responsible for this particular anomalous hot spot that is being discussed.
Robert Austin says:
I did not have thermometers or their siting in mind when I made that comment. I understand that satellite observations also show the anomaly (the UAH map above), and in my opinion, such a large and widespread anomaly cannot be caused by humans, whatever they do and however reckless they are with their heating.
I have just found a data point that will allow you to estimate the total contribution from space heating in Russia. It is going to be a WAG, but anyway. In the town where I used to live (current population 21,000), all heat comes from one boiler station, whose design capacity is 220 Gcal/h.
http://www.pushchino-tvk.ru/index/kharakteristiki_predprijatija/0-7
It was built according to state-wide norms, so it makes sense to presume that other central heaters in Russia have a similar output per unit population. There certainly are geographic and climatic variations, but most people live in average climatic conditions, and this town is as close to average as it can be (it is 100 km south of Moscow). So, assuming the boilers work at capacity (sometimes they do, in winter), we get 12 kW per person (that includes useful heat as well as losses, because we are calculating the boiler output). Add to that electrical losses of about 2 kW per person (this estimate exceeds the typical capacity of a Russian residential electrical feed). Make it 15 kW/person. There are industries, and I don’t know how to estimate their heat, but what we’ve got here includes all residential + offices + public buildings, &c. — a major heat source, all together. Make it 30 kW/person, to account for industries and transportation. With the current population of Russia of 140,000,000, we get 4.2 TW. The total electricity generation in Russia is about 0.1TW (according to IEA), so this is a very generous estimate for peak total heat. It translates to about 0.2 W/m2. It is the level of heat you get from a candle burning in a room.
brendan,
Run along back to SkS, they’re missing one of their head-nodders.