Lots of clima-hullaballo this week in the media thanks NOAA and this announcement in NOAA’s “State of the Climate” report seen here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
They state:
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).
Much of the global “record highest” claim hinges on this one point about Russia:
Note the +5C anomalies in that region in the map cited by NCDC:![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
But, according to satellite temperatures, the ranking claimed by NCDC isn’t anywhere near to “record warmest”. Dr. John Christy gives these values for the satellite data sources of global temperature and their ranks:
- UAH Nov 2013 9th warmest Nov (0.20 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
- RSS Nov 2013 16th warmest Nov (0.22 C cooler than warmest Nov.)
And, when we look at the UAH map of the world, while Russia was certainly warmer, it wasn’t as warm as NCDC makes it to be:
Source: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Other maps from GISS suggest the NCDC presentation might be stretching the November temperatures a bit in the SOTC report, possibly because of the NCDC choice of baseline period.
GISS says 0.40 in November for the 1981-2010 base period used by UAH:
….and just 0.38 in November for 1981-2010 base period if 250km smoothing used:
Clearly, how you calculate and present global temperature anomalies makes a difference in the answer you get for November.
The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.
For example if I tweak the GISS parameters to use the 20th century, we get this, a value of 0.76C above normal, which is closer to NCDC’s value:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1901&base2=2000&radius=250&pol=reg
[Added: Also pointed out in comments NCDC has a lot of data gaps in Russia.
![201311[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/20131111.gif)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-land-sfc-mntp/201311.gif
When the data finally arrives (due to late reporting stations that trickle in), one wonders what the smoothing over Russia will look like and how much the global temperature value for November changes. NOAA/NCDC has to produce “State of the Climate” report each month, and they often do so before all the data is in, but we don’t ever see any update of those values sent to the press. ]
Another source using the GHCN surface land data and surface ocean data in an NCEP analysis, WeatherBell, agrees that Russia was quite anomalously warm, but gives a global temperature anomaly of only 0.17C:
The point I’m making is that global temperature can be significantly different, depending on how it is calculated and presented. Which way is the right way? More importantly, since monthly temperatures still fit into the scale of synoptic meteorology, i.e. affected by “weather”, does it even matter to the global warming debate?
Along the same lines, with year-end approching, we’ll soon see pushes from government and media sources to position 2013 in some rank of “warmest year ever”. With that in mind, here are some maps and temperature ranks to consider:
WeatherBell year to date shows only o.049c globally for the year, hardly alarming:
Source: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png
NCDC, using their century scale base period, says: “The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January–November) was 0.62°C” Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
GISS says only 0.19C so far for 2013, and it will likely go down with the cold December Arctic outbreak which has been seen in the Northern Hemisphere:
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1212&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1981&base2=2010&radius=1200&pol=reg
Global temperature on monthly and yearly time scales varies greatly depending on how it is calculated, how it is presented, and who presents it.
Which one is the real global temperature?
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Addendum: I have been wondering about that Russian red spot for 5 years. I’ve seen this red spot come and go in Russia, and I don’t know what the reason is.
I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from steam pipes:
![russia-pipes[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/russia-pipes1.jpg?quality=83)
In the cities, it’s the municipality that supplies the hot water. There’s a huge network of giant pipes that move the water all over the city. It’s a closed circuit that eventually leads back to a steam plant – a huge factory that does nothing more than heat water and force it into the system.
The pipes enter practically every building within the city limits and the heat from uninsulated pipes (radiators) is what keeps everyone’s living space toasty warm throughout some extremely cold winters. A side benefit is that they never have to wait for the water to warm up in their showers!
– See more at: http://blog.arlomidgett.com/2012/01/16/thoughts-on-russia/#sthash.1gu8As1U.dpuf
While the silver pipes in photos above have insulated cladding, the steam pipes seen below are un-insulated:
The caption was telling: Smaller Russian era dwelling – blue is typical color. Pipes outside are for the steam heat that is distributed to all buildings.
Note the waste heat keeps the snow off the street in Siberia:
Above: Central heating, Novokuznetsk, Siberia, 1991 Photo by Bertien van Manen
See more about Russia at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
(The addendum was edited for clarity)
Related articles
- November 2013 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Toasty November Vaults 2013 Into Top 5 Warmest Years (climatecentral.org)
- November Was the Warmest November Since We Started Keeping Track (theatlantic.com)
- Earth had its warmest November on record (usatoday.com)
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Rumor, not (and probably very far from) fact; these ‘things’ are also verifiable with little effort today, too.
BTW, how do weather satellites ‘see’ rain? RADAR? Not likely, from a geostationary orbit … don’t fall ‘victim’ to the widely used term by the TeeVee mets who refer to the composite “satellite RADAR” image. That is a software creation developed in their ‘weather’ station computer for use in on-air broadcasts to the public …
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Russia is a republican democracy. How hard would it be to validate their sites?
WUWT reaches far and wide. Surface stations dot org could probably cover the nation in a matter of months. Well those months when it is possible to travel.
I think the best November ’13 (or any other date) lower troposphere temperature map is produced by Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer at UAH.
See http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/november/November-2013-map.jpg
See http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/ for maps from 2006.
No UHI effect, no fudging the data.
RE: Scott says:
December 19, 2013 at 2:16 pm
I noticed the increased snow cover over all of Russia as well, Scott. It started quite early, as I remember, and was well above average for November. I suppose milder temperatures might have given them more snow, but what then was created was a vast white area of fresh snow cover, much bigger than Greenland’s icecap, which was constantly creating cold air. Quite often I noticed this cold air didn’t hang around and get colder, but was swiftly exported north, via cross-polar flow, and once across the Pole it headed south into Canada. It messed up the plans of a lot of people attempting the Northwest Passage as the re-freeze began early, and is also a reason it has been colder than normal over much of the USA all autumn.
Once you get into November the northern coast of Siberia starts to see 24-hour darkness, and five degrees above “normal” starts to be the difference between a “balmy” minus-twenty and a “normal” minus twenty-five.
Right now there are parts of central Siberia way above normal, but still below zero, while parts of Eastern Siberia are at minus-forty. In no way, shape or form is Russia a place where any sort of warming occurs in December. Rather it is a vast, white land that loses huge amounts of warmth to outer space.
Google giant Tesla coils found in Russia . Once found you will ask what the ****? What are they used for? I don’t think their water slides lol.
It appears NOAA has a cohort of warmists – true believers – who manufacture creative graphs that can be used to push irrational policy. The following which is attached to Joe’s ‘Night Before Christmas’ poem, at icecape is a summary of the NCDC adjustment to the global anomaly temperatures.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NCDC_MaturityDiagramSince20080517.gif
There needs to be an investigation and house cleaning. The warmists have corrupted the scientific process. Reality does not change if it is ignored. Policy needs to be based on reality rather than manufactured creative graphs. It is good thing not a bad thing that there is no extreme AGW problem to solve. We do not need to spend money on green scams to fight a problem that is not a problem.
There is an extraordinarily long list of items this President and every President (applies to all countries) would like to spend more money on. Mission accomplished there is no extreme AGW problem to solve.
BS from jm. Shouldn’t you be out looking for snipes or Big Foot right about now?
Gene Selkov’s posting (above) says:
“But even then, the effects were localised. I remember seeing CIA-sourced winter-time infrared images of parts of Moscow and of my home town showing multiple intense hot spots. The resolution was so good I could see my car parked near the building where I lived. The story was that the authors of those images were puzzled, theorising about the kinds of activities that could create such a weird infrared signature.”
Make me wonder about the credibility of not only the CIA, but all of the government agencies.
With all their money and resources, they didn’t think to send somebody out to take a look? Or ask a Russian?
Even worse, how does Gene Selkov, a Russian, know all about what the CIA were thinking, and see their photos? Obviously, the Russians are a lot better at this spying business than we are.
If the conspicuous and suspicious temperature anomaly over Russia was a cold anomaly, mainstream science would have corrected it. There is enough information in this post and others on here over the years for any reasonable individual to see the data is suspect and has been for years. Yet, it is accepted without question by warmists.
And don’t forget that NOAA states each month:
“Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed.”
here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11
I believe we’ve noted before that that “may change” is more often than not “will change” and in almost all cases the “complete data” reflects a slightly cooler number than the preliminary data shows.
I’m with Jimbo, I did not think it’s cherry picking time.
Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
I like this analysis, especially the observation about steam heating for residents. It sounds like a great idea but it may well “contaminate” official temperature recordings.
Was this actually a ferroresonant transformer, or some kind of line interactive UPS? A straight transformer would merely have reflected the junk on the primary side to the secondary side. A ferroresonant can tolerate some ferocious swings, usually at the expense of some efficiency.
re: many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from un-insulated steam pipes
and accompanying image: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/russia-pipes1.jpg?w=640&h=438
Close examination of this image shows the silvery covering to be cladding or an outside sheathing to cover over whatever resides inside (which may be some amount of insulation *plus* the actual water or whatever working fluid carrying pipe.)
It would make sense to provide a weather-resistant outside sheath to protect an insulating layer wound around or packed/sprayed onto an interior liquid/working fluid carrying pipe. Over time the ravages of wind and rain and even the rays of the sun take their toll on materials not designed to withstand outside exposure.
It comes to mind, given the ‘look’ of that first, large silvery-looking pipe, that looks more like ‘duct-work’ than actual pipe, therefore, the conclusion would be this is cladding over a (perhaps) insulated pipe.
A closer look at the supports seem to show that they bear the weight of something within the cladding, since the supports seem to ‘intrude’ into the cladding or sheathing.
Just my $0.02 …
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“The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013….”
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Months, or even decades are just an easily determined period for programmers, the variations in the weather/climate run right through the endpoints.
I suppose we could extend out to centuries, but then the data becomes suspect.
How did “we” ever let them get this far ?
Don’t matter now, does it.
Just gotta turn it around.
Here is a large high res temperature anomaly map of Land temperatures from the Modis satellites in November 2013 (versus 2001 to 2010 base period). Note: ALL the land is covered here
Yes, Russia was warm but this is just weather synoptics. Parts have cooled off into December.
http://s29.postimg.org/3mdzqfo93/Nov_2013_Hi_Res.png
Jarryd Beck says:
December 19, 2013 at 2:08 pm
The BOM in Australia is already getting ready to say that Sydney has had its hottest year ever, and that station’s records go back to 1959 or thereabouts. However, I had a look at the station near where I live in Western Sydney, and it’s been quite an average year. The record only goes back to 1995, but nevertheless, there have been hotter years previously.
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Bullshite baffles brains.
@ur momisugly Jim Is that all you got All I see is the truth must hurt your simple mind . I know were I’d like to stick my big foot.
There was desktop, commercial product available not too many years back that that would ‘step’ up or down the mains voltage allowing equipment to ride through line sags and high line conditions even .. in the early 1990’s I was parked in front of a PC one day when the lights blinked briefly at work and noted the series of LEDs on the device to my left traverse down then up to indicate the ‘status’ of the incoming line voltage in real time …
We had our own substation, too, so it may have been something on the premises at the TI Expressway site (the NE corner of LBJ Freeway and US-75) which had faulted, drawing down the mains momentarily until protective equipment (breaker etc) acted.
Something along the lines of a “line Conditioner” as shown here:
http://www.tripplite.com/en/products/model.cfm?txtSeriesID=838&txtModelID=208
These are what seem to have preceded the modern ‘UPS’ in common use nowadays.
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re: jmorpuss says December 19, 2013 at 4:44 pm
John, we’ve discussed this before; either you’re only 10 or an ID 10T.
If you’re ten, come back in about 10 years and join us, if you’re just an ID 10T,well, go find Big Foot …
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Hmmmm… Just a thought, about the Russian penchant for centralized supply and distribution of hot water for heating and bathing. It seems to me that turning off the hot water supply at the central heating plant becomes a very effective way to ‘domesticate’ unruly populations, especially during -30C weather.
“normals”
These are recalculated every 10 years so the most recent “climatology” is for 1981 to 2010. The definition also includes that the period end in year with a zero ending.
The example given upstream is just that, an example. Perhaps that WMO page needs to be updated.
_Jim says:
December 19, 2013 at 4:32 pm
re: many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from un-insulated steam pipes and accompanying image: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/russia-pipes1.jpg?w=640&h=438
Close examination of this image shows the silvery covering to be cladding or an outside sheathing to cover over whatever resides inside (which may be some amount of insulation *plus* the actual water or whatever working fluid carrying pipe.)
_Jim,
I had the same impression, as I was reading the article and looking at the photos. Looked like a smaller diameter pipe jacketed with a larger diameter outer shield.
Mac the Knife and Jim_ observe:
Here’s what it is:
http://www.msknn.ru/site.aspx?IID=1906571&SECTIONID=1890081
Russians are crazy, but not that crazy. They do insulate.
What we did see many years back was that in places where those pipes were on the surface and in somebody’s way, people would walk on them, destroying the insulation.
_Jim says:
December 19, 2013 at 4:11 pm
“Shouldn’t you be out looking for snipes . . . ”
I wonder how many folks haven’t a clue about that?
These are cute birds with a long bill that some hunt with a shotgun.
If you are asked to use a pillow case – that’s a scam.
Look it up.
take a look where the new north magnetic pole is forming. right smack dab in the middle of the warming.