Open Thread – AGU Week

open_thread

Thanks to the help of many readers, I’m off to cover The 2013 AGU meeting, and I’ll be in San Francisco this week. I’m in transit today.

Readers might want to peruse the AGU Meeting program and see if they have topics/questions they’d like to see covered.

For those attending and wish to contact me, you can either use the WUWT contact form, or the AGU member messaging system from their web page.

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Thanks to the help of many readers,…
It was money well spent.

DaveG

Safe travels.

With the CAGW “scare” showing signs of winding down, there’s still debris to clean up, e.g. “green” energy like wind. I’m shifting a lot of my attention to Industrial Wind Turbines in New Hampshire. Near the Newfound Lake region one project is complete (Groton Wind on Tenney and Fletcher mountains) and three or four more are in various planning stages.
Next up is Wild Meadows, http://iberdrolarenewables.us/wildmeadows/index.html , which originally proposed several turbines that I think would have been visble from our yurt on the side of Mt Cardigan. A revised plan drops that ridge, but puts larger turbines (500 feet tall) on the other ridges they’re eying.
Partially thanks to throwing the towns of Groton and Rumney under the bus, the opposition to these projects is much greater, Wild Meadows should be filing their formal application to the state this month.
I’m getting interested in issues behind infrasound emitted from IWTs. This started from reading very similar accounts from all over the world, and finding that noise studies generally use “dBa weighting” which greatly discounts lower frequencies. However, the infrasound component unweighted is often over 100 dB and appears to be responsible for many health problems.
I’m also interested in taking infrasound recordings and shifting them some seven octaves through faster playback and frequency scaling. WUWT community – if you know of recordings that people have done like that, please share links.
Also, this might be a good Open Thread to talk about other wind projects that have or will impact people.

Not a regular football fan, but it was fun watching so many football games being played in the snow today. Just like I remembered growing up decades ago. My Philadelphia Eagles didn’t disappoint me either.
Didn’t IPCC tell us we’d never see another football game played in the snow ever again?

Peter Crawford

Or it might also be a time to reflect that almost everybody with a science training thinks himself or herself to be of a higher calling, almost Godlike, compared to mere mortals. But William S. Burroughs, a mad old junkie, once sagely observed, “there is no job too dirty for a f****** scientist”.
Read on and if the link doesn’t work google Unit731.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

Enjoy the AGU mtg in San Fran.
John

Gary

I’m curious, and I don’t have cable/satellite. I was in the path the recent winter storm that tore through America. We got anywhere from 8 to 12 inches of ice, sleet and snow. I’m still stuck in my home due to icy roads. Anybody seeing any attributions to “climate disruption” regarding this storm? It’s not just been the precipitation. It’s been damn cold as well. Any source out there blaming the melting polar ice caps? or any other such nonsense? And to all you who are sharing my cold feet – God bless and keep you warm.

Stephen Singer

Hey, Ric Werme checkout this article from Bishop HIll a day or two ago.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/6/windfarm-noise-state-of-play.html

curiousnc

Evening. I am a lay person trying to hold my own in an extremely pro-warmist group.
Someone made the following remark to my attempt to explain why I was intrigued more by the uncertainties of AGW than the peer-reviewed IPCC account: First point is that, like with CFCs, we don’t actually have a way to put the genie back in the bottle. If moving enough carbon out of the mineralized form does push the climate into the same temperature range that it was in in the Pleistocene then we don’t have any way to walk that back, even if it does take 300-400 years to reach that median temperature. A scientific view means recognizing that the climate is the result of a many factors, a few of which have the ability to move the climate baseline up or down and many many of which are responsive to mean conditions. CO2 moves the climate baseline and it does so on a timescale of thousands, tens of thousands, and hundreds of thousands of years, because that is the typical rate that the fractions move between their aqueous, mineralized and atmospheric forms. So no, no sensible person believes that the real dramatic climate impacts with start in the next hundred years, the stuff that we care about, like storms and small changes in sea level is pocket change to the global climate. That we might actually be really screwing with things that took geological time to get where they are? Yeah, that’s a pretty solid concern.” Do you agree?

clipe
climateace

Snow at football games? Meh. The latest Australian Bushfire report:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zxzcyxkucnqt3o0/cc.bushfire.report.web.pdf
In line with the hundreds of thousands of Bitish homeowners who are having difficulty gaining any access to any home insurance at all, homes in some areas of Australia have also become uninsurable and the increase in insurance rates for homes in Australia far outstrips the rate of inflation.

Hoser

Better you than me. Glad you could go. I did my time in Berkeley and that was plenty.

Scott

Ice banks are starting to form south of Milwaukee (near Wind Point) on Lake Michigan. Usually these don’t form for three-four more weeks. No New Years Day polar bear ice plunges this year.

climateace

Deloitte Report on the Insurance Industry in the United States. Note in particular point 8 in the challenges. Note also comment on what insurers are going to do to US premiums in order to manage their climate risks:
http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/FSI/US_FSI_P&C2013Outlook_010913.pdf

Ric… I just threw up in my mouth when I read your comment.
I learned to ski at tenney mt. It was my favorite place to ski.
Great times with great friends. It really sickens me to hear
what these a..holes are doing . For what? I’ve signed partitions
What else can l do. I live in mass but go up to N.H. for skiing
Snowmobiling and ice fishing on conway lake. This bullshit
Has to stop. How?????
.

curiousnc

.I do think it is extremely disturbing that well meaning people have to go through such contortions to try and sort through the lies and the facts without a solid scientific background. This was his further concern: Our current warm climate seems to be to due shifts in terrestrial baseline climate factors and not extra planetary shifts which should by rights place us somewhere in the persistently cold phase. If the move from global persistent ice age to global tropical experience is due almost entirely to a shift in atmospheric content, then yes, it is very valid to assert that artificially accelerating that process should accelerate the shift to an even warmer climate, essentially taking the slow impact of the higher CO2 levels that shifted us away from 40% icecap and doubling them. When you look at it only from the perspective of human experience it seems impossible for the climate to shift that much with such a seemingly small cause, but if you look at the climate over a wider scale there is this terrifying portent that already the climate might have shifted away from a much colder mean temperature, rapidly, and in response to a relatively smaller change in GHG.
I am thinking there could quite easily be extra planetary shifts though. Especially from the sun:
COSMIC RAYS AND CLIMATE
Jasper Kirkby CERN, Geneva, Switzerland
Abstract
Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic field and by the galactic environment of Earth. Two different classes of microphysical mechanisms have been proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an influence of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei and, secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical circuit in the atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and other cloud microphysical processes. Considerable progress on understanding ion-aerosol-cloud processes has been made in recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-plausible link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements of the fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and to evaluate their climatic significance with dedicated field observations and modelling studies.
Keywords aerosols, clouds, climate, solar-climate variability, cosmic rays, ions, global electrical cir- cuit, CERN CLOUD facility
Published in Surveys in Geophysics 28, 333–375, doi: 10.1007/s10712-008-9030-6 (2007). The original publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com

Bob Diaz

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Have you ever wanted to work your own hours, be you own boss?
Well the Columbia School Of Climate Change could be for you !!!
That’s right, in just a few short weeks we’ll show you how to terrorize foolish people in sending you lots of money to “Save The Earth”. You’ll learn lots of ways of expressing fear without having to deal with pesky facts:
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> We’ve have to cut CO2, but don’t worry, China’s CO2 doesn’t count!
So why wait?
Why miss out on all the fun excitement, and manipulation you can get from AGW?
Call today, you’ll be glad you did!
*** Columbia School Of Climate Change is NOT affiliated with rational thought or valid science. ;-))

I looked at the program…
Sure — give my warmest regards to Dr. Mann:
http://www.bubblews.com/assets/images/news/1524579090_1369941782.jpg
Cheers and have a good meeting.

clipe

climateace says:
December 8, 2013 at 2:45 pm

Snow at football games? Meh. The latest Australian Bushfire report:

Ah yes! A report from “Big Insurance”. Munich Re reduxulous.

rogerknights

Terry Comeau says:
December 3, 2013 at 6:47 am
I would suggest that we sceptics start referring to the IPCC as the United Nations IPCC, rather than simply the IPCC.

“UNICEF”, etc. creates precedent. How about “UNIPOCC”? (The “O” stands for “on”.) With UNIPOCC, the definite article often need not be used, the same as within UNICEF.
“A pox on UNIPOCC” might be the next coinage. Followed by little rhyming couplets employing Mock, Nock, Rock, Sock, Block, Clock, Schlock, etc. If this tickles your fancy, let’s start a bandwagon!

clipe

reduxulous reduxilous.

u.k.(us)

Just copied this off the very bottom of my local radar web page :
“NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun – FOR LIFE”
============
Interesting, that they feel the need to promote themselves ?
Don’t know how long it has been there, I usually just look at the radar returns.

clipe

I’m glad I don’t have to commute between Barrie, Ontario and Toronto airport like my friend has to.
“Flurries or snow squalls” are often the same thing in that neck-of-the-woods.

* Denotes an abnormal temperature trend
Issued: 3:30 PM EST Sunday 8 December 2013
Tonight, 8 December
Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning this evening. Risk of freezing drizzle before morning. Amount 5 cm. Wind becoming southeast 20 km/h late this evening. Temperature rising to zero by morning.
Monday, 9 December
Periods of snow ending in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Risk of freezing drizzle early in the morning. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h in the morning. High plus 1 with temperature falling to minus 2 in the afternoon.
Monday night, 9 December
Cloudy. 60 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Wind southwest 20 km/h becoming west 40 gusting to 60 in the evening. Low minus 7.
Tuesday, 10 December
Flurries or snow squalls. High minus 4.
Wednesday, 11 December
Flurries or snow squalls. Windy. Low minus 8. High minus 4.
Thursday, 12 December
Flurries or snow squalls. Low minus 13. High minus 7.
Friday, 13 December
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 12. High minus 8.
Saturday, 14 December
Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 12. High minus 7.

geran

Now for something fun–If an ideal absorber received the same solar intensity as the Earth, the temperature would be at 360K (87C, 189F).
(How does that “screen capture” work again?)

climateace

clipe
[climateace says:
December 8, 2013 at 2:45 pm
Snow at football games? Meh. The latest Australian Bushfire report:
Ah yes! A report from “Big Insurance”. Munich Re reduxulous.]
When insurers stop wanting to do business with homeowners it is not big business, it is no business.

geran

Heard about someone that needed a backhoe to clear access to his garage, west of Fort Worth, TX. Not seen in over 70 years!
Cue the “ice agers”….

curiousnc@December 8, 2013 at 2:31 pm,
There may be some prospects for removing CO2 from the climate system. The most interesting thing I’ve seen lately is this post about extracting CO2 from seawater to make jet fuel:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2013/01/16/zero-emission-synfuel-from-seawater/
Hat tip to Peter Lang, frequent commenter at Judith Curry’s Climate Etc.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/28/is-earth-in-energy-deficit/#comment-421091

curiousnc

Thanks, Canman, bobl, Curious George. Appreciate the info. 🙂

bobl

Gary,
We do sympathise with your plight, however you will ensure that no fossil fuels are harmed by your cold snap. As synthetic fibres are made from the evil oil, perhaps instead you can slaughter a few criters and wear their skins as protection.
/sarc

Del Cowsill

Is this an unusual amount of sea ice formimg off the east coast of Greenland?http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

rbissett777

Anthony,
Would like to donate these images for use on your cafepress Tee shirts if you like ’em.
Bob
Robert Bissett, Bs.Arch. Naples, Idaho 83847 Artist, Author, Blogger, Teacher Dragon Speed Design Group Latest books: Tornado! – paperback Tornado! – Kindle Real Working Drawingsand Real Art, Real Easy Fine Art Prints, Matting, Frames Sometimes a Daily Painting Blog Award Winning Art Custom House Plans, Dome Specialist
REPLY: I don’t understand, what images? – Anthony

Del Cowsill

Secret Santa has been past my chimney pot tonight.
IPCC AR5: Synthesis Report Pre-First Order Draft available here:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/12/08/ipcc-ar5-synthesis-report-pre-first-order-draft-available-here/
Enjoy a cool Yule, a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hogmanay.
Cheers all
Rog TB

climateace

Hottest spring on record for Australia:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml
December 8, 2013 at 2:45 pm

Thanks Tallbloke! 😀

climateace
TImothy Sorenson

Wonder if you are going to catch Trenbreth’s award, or Mann’s talk on legal advice to scientists, or Peter H. Gleick’s paper… there are good ones I am sure but it is rife with these guys.

Alan Robertson

tallbloke says:
December 8, 2013 at 4:32 pm
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/12/08/ipcc-ar5-synthesis-report-pre-first-order-draft-available-here/
______________________________
Many thanks, Roger.

Alan Robertson

tallbloke says:
December 8, 2013 at 4:47 pm
____________________
Thanks Roger.

geran

climateace says:
December 8, 2013 at 4:47 pm
Hottest spring on record for Australia:
>>>>>
See, the roos are causing GW. There was no KGW before the roos started it, QED
(Okay, maybe the koalas are involved also, but the roos should be gathered up and sent to England. Poetic justice.)

John piccirilli says:
December 8, 2013 at 2:56 pm

It really sickens me to hear
what these a..holes are doing . For what? I’ve signed partitions
What else can I do. I live in mass but go up to N.H. for skiing
Snowmobiling and ice fishing on conway lake. This bullshit
Has to stop. How?????

If you use Facebook, join https://www.facebook.com/groups/NHWindWatch/
(search for group Newfound Lake Wind Watch). The same organizers are at http://www.nhwindwatch.org/ .
Oppose wind power in Mass – well, maybe not. The proposed projects have agreed to sell their power to Mass et al. If you guys would build more of your own, you might not need our sites! Check out http://www.ptcfacts.info/ – the Production Tax Credit is up for renewal again this year, it’ll probably be tacked on to some other bill Congress has to pass, ask your congresscritter to oppose it.
BTW, Google Maps updated the Tenney area a couple months ago, check out
https://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&ll=43.746576,-71.76909&spn=0.010851,0.018239&z=15&output=embed
The turbine access road is also providing easy access for loggers, look around the southernmost turbine.

bobl

curiousnc,
This is a very common play, it’s an application of the precautionary principle. In the end this argument doesnt hold water because the cost of insurance is approximately worth the extinction of the human race. Whatever we do is going to affect the environment, whether it be adding artificial nitrates, CO2, raw heat energy, water, or whatever.
The pollutant di hydrogen nitride is present in voluminous amount due to man, but there are no protests about this potent GHG.
So what to do, firstly we look at the effects, what would happen if it hypòthetically did get warmer. Well we know from experience that life gets nicer, day time temperature maximums are lower, minimums are higher, and things become more tropical. Life and species abound, there is more food and free water. Conversely as it gets colder, ecosystems contract, extinctions occur, death Increases from limited food supplies.
Ask your friends this, In the little ice age when CO2 was supposedly ideal at 270 PPM 1/2 the population of preindustrial Europe died from cold, disease and famine. Since then is has become warmer CO2 fertilisation has incresed food yeild by maybe 15%, Western Europe and North america have become world powers on the back of reliable food and water supplies, instead of struggling to avoid famine as during the LIA, sure, during the LIA you could go skating for free on the Thames, but thinking about it, when would your friends prefer to live, during the cold depths of the LIA with little prospect of living beyond 40, or now?
A fall in the average temperature of the world by just 0.8 degrees would put us right back in the LIA, Europe is on the knife edge of it being too cold to feed their populations, less than 1 degree C away. now ask what would they like to do, warm the earth, or cool it, which direction lies most safety,
Mind you, if we did end up back in a LIA then for us in the equatorial regions life would be good, imagine the exports to wor torn Europe, and North america, now unable to feed themselves from nicer parts of the world. BTW what would your friends think the political situation might be in a world where New York is under a glacier?
In which climate direction lies safety, what is the precautionary principle telling you now?

Steve Oregon

Try and behave Watts.
The team will be watching you..comment image

Curious George

@curiousnc@December 8, 2013 at 2:31 pm
The sad truth is that we don’t know enough about the climate. Aztecs of Tenochtitlan believed that the Sun had to be coaxed into rising the next day by sacrificing a noble person. And – it worked! What unimaginable disasters have been averted simply by following their scientific religion.
If you google “C4 plant”, you will find that plants developed in an atmosphere with a much higher CO2 concentration. And plants continued to eat CO2, depositing carbon as coal (and maybe oil and natural gas, I am not sure if hydrocarbons on Saturn’s moon Titan qualify as fossil fuels.) We don’t know so much yet!

bobl

PS excuse my tablets propensity for inserting its own idea of spelling into my recent postings.

The EPA’s ethanol mandate proposal is open for public comment.. A lot of pro-ethanol voices are trying to convince the EPA to retract their reduced mandate levels. I encourage all citizens concerned about this boondoggle “green” energy source to leave knowledgable comments about keeping the reduced mandates. I have more information about the proposal and the comments here:
http://www.postlibertarian.com/2013/12/help-make-sure-the-government-moves-ethanol-regulation-in-the-right-direction-for-once/

lee

climateace says:
December 8, 2013 at 4:47 pm
Hottest spring on record for Australia:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I guess it depends on where you live. We had our fires going. Now in December we are merely rugged up, in Upper Great Southern, Western Australia.

climateace

Lee
[Hottest spring on record for Australia:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I guess it depends on where you live. We had our fires going. Now in December we are merely rugged up, in Upper Great Southern, Western Australia.]
How you have experience d the hottest spring on record in Australia does depend on where you live.
The fact of its existence does not.

ed mister jones

“Hottest spring on record for Australia:”
And how many Millennium do those ‘records’ cover?
Yawn…………………

curiousnc

10 Climate Myths busted in 60 seconds

dalyplanet

Canman, quite an interesting informative link.