The Guardian's 'ursus bogus' moment

Dr. Susan Crockford writes:

Regarding: Science self-corrects: bogus study claiming Roundup tolerant GMO corn causes cancer to be retracted

This ratty story reminds me of the polar bear incident I just posted about

this morning at PolarBearScience.

Canadian polar bear researchers Ian Stirling and Nick Lunn gave Suzanne

Goldenberg at The Guardian the results of their new Western Hudson Bay

population estimate, from a study that has not been published anywhere.

There is not even a government report available! This is the first mention

of this new estimate, anywhere, and it’s in The Guardian. Folks have been

waiting for it for years, and it’s reported in The Guardian.

Forget no raw data available – in this case there is no data available

period. How can science self-correct behaviour like this?

Goldenberg’s headline (from Nov. 27): “Polar bear numbers in Hudson Bay of

Canada on verge of collapse.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/27/polar-bears-climate-change-canada-hudson-bay

See the post here:

http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/28/polar-bear-researchers-still-withholding-hudson-bay-data/

All the best,

Susan

Susan J. Crockford, Ph.D. (Zoology/Evolutionary Biology/Archaeozoology)

Adjunct Professor (Anthropology/Graduate Studies)

University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

AND Pacific Identifications Inc. (www.pacificid.com)

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TRM
November 29, 2013 2:36 pm

Matthew W says: November 29, 2013 at 10:41 am
KNR says:November 29, 2013 at 10:30 am
Given the biggest danger to polar bear cubs are adult male polar bears ,
==========================================================
Actually the greatest danger to the entire polar bear population was a man with a rifle. Since we have stopped shooting polar bears, they are doing quite well.
– Very true and as long as mommy is around the males will not risk it. They might be bigger but the aren’t stupid.

TRM
November 29, 2013 2:41 pm

JBJ says:November 29, 2013 at 2:26 pm
“Actually the greatest danger to the entire polar bear population was a man with a rifle. Since we have stopped shooting polar bears, they are doing quite well.”
Polar bears are still hunted in the Arctic!
– There is but it is heavily restricted unlike what it was in the 1960s when levels dropped to 5,000 and are now at 25,000 (aprox on both).
http://ec.gc.ca/nature/default.asp?lang=En&n=9577616C-1
“In Canada the hunting and harvest of polar bears is restricted to Aboriginal people or sport hunters guided by Aboriginal people who harvest by traditional means” – In this context I think “traditional” means dogsled and not snowmobiles. You don’t want to be out there with a bow, arrows and spears (unless you have serious thrill issues).
“Quotas are set that take into account recommendations from federal provincial and territorial scientists, university specialists as well as United States researchers based in Alaska. “

November 29, 2013 2:57 pm

TRM says:
November 29, 2013 at 2:41 pm
JBJ says:November 29, 2013 at 2:26 pm
“Actually the greatest danger to the entire polar bear population was a man with a rifle. Since we have stopped shooting polar bears, they are doing quite well.”
Polar bears are still hunted in the Arctic!
=====================================
Point Taken
I didn’t anticipate the pedantry of having to add “Unrestricted” to my point

johanna
November 29, 2013 7:24 pm

Quoted by Mick J at 5.54 pm
“Of course, others did not fare as well including Dancer and a radio-collared female who was reported to have lost her cub this fall. She was disoriented and wandering down the road, her hormones probably all out of whack. Its tough to see but this is part of nature.”
———————————————————————————
Does it ever occur to these “researchers” that capturing, knocking out, and placing a radio collar on an animal might negatively affect It?

November 29, 2013 7:40 pm

DirkH says:
November 28, 2013 at 5:01 pm
“”There is no way a population can remain stable, if the young aren’t surviving,” said Stirling. “If the climate continues to warm, slowly and steadily, they are on the way out.””
As it hasn’t warmed for 17 years, what is that person talking about? Does he know how to compute a correlation? Does he know that a causation is rather unlikely if there is not even a correlation?

Does he know that a correlation is rather unlikely if there is not even a causation?

Jimbo
November 30, 2013 3:14 am

Polar bear populations are a sensitive topic for the Canadian government, which has faced international criticism for its policies on climate change and for allowing limited hunting of bears, mainly by indigenous communities….
….for example, has shrunk by nearly 10% to 850 bears in under a decade, according to the latest Canadian government estimate seen by the Guardian….
The latest Canadian government estimates, which have yet to be shared with independent scientists or the public,…
You can see their backbones and their hips and shoulder blades when they are moving and they are visibly thin,” said Ian Stirling, a wildlife biologist at the University of Alberta, who has studied the population for more than 35 years.

OK. No photos of skinny polar bears from Stirling I see. Goldenberg of the Guardian may have let the cat out of the bag in her very first paragraph which mentions ‘limiting hunting’, and how do they keep track of any illegal hunting? What about polluting contaminants, disease, migration?
PCBs
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412010002242
Here is the 1974 1975 starvation event in the Beaufort Sea caused by TOO MUCH ICE!
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/02/21/where-were-the-appeals-to-feed-starving-polar-bears-in-1974/
“Abstract
……a radio-collared adult female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea made a continuous swim of 687 km over 9 days and then intermittently swam and walked on the sea ice surface an additional 1,800 km…..The extraordinary long distance swimming ability of polar bears, which we confirm here, may help them cope with reduced Arctic sea ice……”
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=24131717

Jimbo
November 30, 2013 3:24 am

Sometimes estimates can be waaaaaay off and require a little revision upwards (or downwards).

Guardian
Scientists dispute this. One single polar bear population on the western shore of Hudson Bay, for example, has shrunk by nearly 10% to 850 bears in under a decade, according to the latest Canadian government estimate seen by the Guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/27/polar-bears-climate-change-canada-hudson-bay

It’s good to see Goldenberg lays such weight behind these unpublished guesstimates.

Emperor Penguin Numbers Double Previous Estimates, Satellites Show” [2012]
“It surprised us that we approximately doubled the population estimate,” said Peter Fretwell, a scientist with the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of a paper published today in the journal PLoS One.
http://www.livescience.com/19677-emperor-penguin-numbers-double-previous-estimates-satellites-show.html

chris moffatt
November 30, 2013 5:27 am

“It has warmed a lot in Eastern Canada over the last 17 years … if you lived here you would know that. Question is … how long will this last … this years ice looks like its forming faster!”
Tell it to my brother who lives near Montreal and can’t find any consistent climate warming.
“Now I’m confused. Is the heat hiding in the polar bears or in the ice?”
It’s obviously hiding in selected parts of eastern Canada. OTOH it is definitely not hiding in this part of eastern Virginia where temperatures are at or below levels of thirty years ago.

JBJ
November 30, 2013 7:57 am

chris moffatt says:
November 30, 2013 at 5:27 am
“It has warmed a lot in Eastern Canada over the last 17 years … if you lived here you would know that. Question is … how long will this last … this years ice looks like its forming faster!”
“Tell it to my brother who lives near Montreal and can’t find any consistent climate warming.”
Look at the data for St. John’s, Goose Bay and Iqaluit!

Lars P.
November 30, 2013 9:20 am

David L. Hagen says:
November 28, 2013 at 4:12 pm
I recommend submitting this to be reproduced in the Journal of Irreproducible Results and for a potential Ignoble Award.
Not sure it fits. It looks a different category to me, this does not “first make people laugh” and then “make them think”. Hm, ok, we can debate on this actually.
However:
“The prizes are intended to celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative — and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology”
This science by press release has a different effect. It is trying to bully people with things presented as science.
A paper without raw data and clear description of methodology is not a scientific paper. It qualifies for “the science” not science.
To me this rather looks like the medieval organization a procession of flagellant:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flagellant
under guidance of “the science”, where we, the stupid sinners, must march on and flagellate ourselves for the foregivens of our sins and do so reparations.

Jack Simmons
December 1, 2013 2:09 am

stan stendera says:
November 28, 2013 at 7:41 pm

My Grandpappy always said “you believe what newspapers say until they write about something you know about”.

Stan,
Sad but true.
For years, my father read Time magazine. This was from the forties through the eighties.
Because of this, I was a long time reader of Time. Until I began to notice they got their facts wrong when writing on topics I knew something about. Usually not out and out lies, but enough twisting to give a false impression of the topic.
So I quit reading Time magazine. Haven’t cracked a copy in decades. Couldn’t count on it to give me enough factual information to form a legitimate opinion.
For the same reason I had to quit reading Scientific American. It really should be renamed Politically Correct American. Sorry to say, SA out and out lied about matters. It just broke my heart because I loved to go to the library and read the latest copies through the sixties. Some of the older issues are still fun to read.