While we wait for wacky antagonist Greg Laden to make a decision on whether he’ll chip and and help the relief effort, here are some useful bits of information that help put this storm into the perspective of “worst ever” claims, and opportunistic claims about it being a product of global warming, like Greenpeace is doing:
But, when you look at the science for tropical cyclones in the region, such claims don’t even begin to hold up. These two papers show the reality from data – no trend, either in landfall or in total frequency/intensity of storms:
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.
“Despite global warming during the 20th century the number of tropical cyclones annually making landfall in the Philippines did not experience any net change. All variability was merely oscillatory activity around a mean trend of zero slope”
This is also backed up in Weinkle et al., 2012:
From currently available historical TC records, we constructed a long-period global hurricane landfall dataset using a consistent methodology. We have identified considerable interannual variability in the frequency of global hurricane landfalls; but within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long-period global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major, or total hurricanes within the period(s) covered by the available quality data.
Therefore, our long-period analysis does not support claims that increasing TC landfall frequency or landfall intensity has contributed to concomitantly increasing economic losses.
Weinkle et al. Figure 2 A and C show the lack of trend:
Note that the WPAC represents the area including the Philippines:
It seems abundantly clear then that any claim trying to tie Typhoon Haiyan to a pattern of increased frequency of storms supposedly driven by “global warming” is patently false.
The news of Typhoon Haiyan is being bandied about in COP18 When Seth Borenstein doesn’t write articles for AP, here is the sort of balanced reporting you get: (h/t to Ryan Maue)
Typhoon Haiyan overshadows UN climate talks
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/typhoon-haiyan-overshadows-un-climate-talks
And, the Washington Post points out something that puts the tragedy of Haiyan in perspective:
Most weather experts expected reports of horrific damage and high loss of life given the intensity of the storm and geography of the affected areas, but not many were prepared when Philippine officials estimated that as many as 10,000 people may have died in Tacloban City alone when Haiyan struck.
If this death toll estimate holds up, however, it wouldn’t even put Haiyan in the top 35 deadliest tropical cyclones on record.
The most recent credible death toll report on Haiyan is 1,774:
Figures from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council showed the number of dead stood at 1,774, radio dzBB’s Paulo Santos reported.
Here is the top 35 list of Deadliest Cyclones from Weather Underground:
Better awareness, and better warnings thanks to technology combined with evacuations helped make Haiyan less of a tragedy than it could have been, though in the case of Tacloban, topography was the biggest factor in evacuations according to WaPo:
Mass evacuations of this sort are just not possible in some regions of the world, and this was certainly true of Tacloban and its surroundings. Many people in Tacloban were evacuated to sturdier buildings within the city itself, but due to the fact that the city lies on an island that is mostly mountainous, moving people out of the city and into other areas wasn’t possible.
For those that wish to help, see the Red Cross graphic on the WUWT sidebar, or follow this link: http://ushare.redcross.org.ph/
David Hoffer says:
“CNN clearly has an agenda which I’ve noticed in their international reporting as well as their climate science reporting. They belong on Anthony’s blog roll, right up there with SkS.”
I agree. Any blog that censors comments because they do not follow the AGW narrative should have their identities posted. SkS is one of tbe worst offenders, but there are plenty of others, as you found out.
Recent comments of mine were even censored by Ars Technica, and all I posted were about 4 – 5 CO2/Temperature charts. I was very polite, but it didn’t matter. The charts destroyed the alarmists’ comments, so they were arbitrarily deleted. Further, Ars allowed very scurrilous name-calling by the same alarmists to be published — in violation of their own written Policy — which was their only response to my charts.
The alarmist crowd has run out of legitimate arguments. Now, their only recourse is to censor the comments of scientific skeptics. That is clearly the next step, after deciding that they cannot debate skeptics. Now it’s propaganda, 24/7. There is not even a pretence of fairness.
dbstealey says:
November 12, 2013 at 10:09 am
Huffington Post cut me off after a few comments in just one exchange.
@Tim Walker, geran, Jquip, Jimbo, dbstealey, Mike Bromley the Kurd, Bruce C –
No, never was there a more zoned-out ignoramus than Pippen Kool.
@davidmhoffer –
That performance by CNN’s Mark Hertsgaard was about as bad as it gets.
Responsible journalists do not refuse to report on all but the politically correct side of an issue – THAT’s what is irresponsible.
The old 97% percent argument – straight argumentum ad verecundiam, as well as a flat-out .lie. More scientists reject the AGW meme than accept it (the Oregon Petitionj, 31,000+, is only the tip of the iceberg there). And even if it were true that 97 percent swallow it – truth and fact don’t abide by majority rule.
This mollusk’s rudeness towards Dr. Spencer is unprofessional and over the top,. Where does this mental midget get off thinking he has any kind of standing to challenge Dr. Spencer? We skeptics may disagree among ourselves on some points, but I have to say that the discourse here at WUWT makes organizations like CNN look pretty shabby by comparison.
As for CNN – there are so many paragons of bias, arrogance and bad manners there, one hardly knows where to start: in addition to that snail Hertsgaard, there’s Piers Morgan, Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, to name a few. All of them should just shut up and go away somewhere.
That picture with the cooling tower makes me literally angry with rage.
Let’s also forget that the Phillipines are in the most active cyclone region on the planet.
While I was looking at this earlier I couldn’t help but notice that there was a cyclone track hitting the southeast coast of Brazil… fascinating!
Just heard the Philippines death toll was reduced to an estimate of 2,000-2,500 which I’m sure even Greg Laden would welcome as good news.
I just posted a rebuttal to the snail Hertsgaard on CNN’s Piers Morgan blog – and it was deleted within seconds. So much for responsible journalism at CNN. A pox on them!
Here is what I posted at CNN which they immediately deleted:
That performance by CNN’s Mark Hertsgaard was about as bad as it gets.
Responsible journalists do not refuse to report on any but the politically correct side of an issue – THAT’s what is irresponsible. Responsible journalism presents all sides of a issue.
The old 97 percent argument – straight argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy, as well as a flat-out lie. More scientists reject the AGW meme than accept it (the Oregon Petition, 31,000+, is only the tip of the iceberg there). There is no such thing as “consensus” in science – consensus is the opposite of the scientific method, which calls for all theory to be constantly and resolutely questioned. And even if it were true that 97 percent swallow it – truth and fact don’t abide by majority rule. And the TRUTH is that there is NO TRUTH to the notion than man causes climate change.
This mollusk’s rudeness towards Dr. Spencer is unprofessional and over the top,. Where does this mental midget get off thinking he has any kind of standing to challenge Dr. Spencer?
This snail Hertsgaard is a paragon not only of ignorance but of bias, arrogance and bad manners. Worse than that, he has some crust calling Dr. Spencer a “denier,” in a crude and slanderous effort to link him to the Holocaust. Hertsgaard is the REAL denier here, of the science that proves the falsity of AGW versus the totalitarian political ideology that is all that supports AGW. And worse still, Hertsgaard’s endorsement of AGW marks him as the DENIER of another, very real Holocaust – the millions of people killed by starvation (ethanol program) and hypothermia (carbon taxes making people unable to heat their homes) as a result of policies driven by AGW.
Nobody watches CNN anymore…have you seen their ratings??
It’s like asking “When was the last time you got your weather information from The Weather Channel”? Uhhh…..
As usual Anthony, you have done a great job. Thank you!
I have friends living on Leyte. They are good and hard working people. I ring and there is no connection. Thank you for the rational and humane explanation of this tragedy. I am outraged by the cynical and dishonest exploitation of this tragedy by Greenpeace and other climate change ideologues. All of this should never be forgotten.
wikipedia is reporting it as the strongest storm of 2013. That really does not say much….
IF this turns out to be true, then perhaps the Tacloban official responsible for the 10,000 claim wasn’t just in error, but was angling for a greater share of relief assistance from the government. Or maybe he is a warmist looking to influence the Warsaw talks. Or both.
Philippines should learn from India, who lost a similar number of people in a similar cyclone in 1999, then took steps at village level to ensure it did not happen again, learning from experience:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/10/14/odisha%E2%80%99s-cyclone-shows-india-can-handle-disasters-but-longer-term-action-is-needed/
Cyclone shelters:
http://southasia.oneworld.net/manage-site/photo-story/indian-state-to-get-140-cyclone-shelters
I have a question. Can tropical depressions significantly affect wind shear along the path it travels.
Let me qualify my previous statment. Wikipedia is reporting in the headlines that it is the strongest of 2013, while the actual article says strongest ever to make landfall.
oops
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/philippine-president-puts-typhoon-death-toll-at-2000-to-2500/article15389636/
Unfortunately, I think Dr. Spencer needs to stay off the TV and leave the debate to those who know how to debate. He is a brilliant scientist and has brought invaluable research to the surface debunking AGW, but he got his clock cleaned in that interview with his lack of the most basic debating skills. Mark Hertsgaard is a hack who does nothing but spout off easily disproved sound bites, but he is an expert at drowning out his opponents. Please Dr., continue your research but stay off the TV – you’re not doing the cause any good.
The Philippines government failed utterly to protect its people – again. Its crying lying mouthpiece at the UN Warsaw conference did and said nothing about the endemic corruption of his government that left millions of poor people exposed to the full force of the typhoon. Climate warming did it. Right. Its now the mantra exculpation of a corrupt elite that fails to evacuate, build shelters and then leaves its suffering citizens to starve. The cynicism of the Philippines government is disgraceful. Sano says he is going to fast till something is done. Well many Filipinos are starving until the lying corrupt elite, that he is part of and represents, are removed from their privilege and positions of power.
http://theconversation.com/typhoon-haiyan-a-perfect-storm-of-corruption-and-neglect-20149http://theconversation.com/typhoon-haiyan-a-perfect-storm-of-corruption-and-neglect-20149
Here is a simple yet great counter to the Warmists claims I found at Bishop Hill. ‘Logic’ at its simplest.
The debate on human-affected climate change for the average punter is an issue of trust. Ordinary blokes like me can’t hope to know and understand as much as a qualified and experienced meteorologist like Anthony Watts, or any other climate scientist. But their opinions differ. This blog demonstrates once again why I choose to not trust Mr Watts, and choose instead to trust the very many scientists who contribute to the IPCC Assessment Reports. Mr Watt’s does not deal with the real concern, which is the intensity of Typhoon Haiyan. The number of typhoons generally is less of a concern that any one typhoon of the destructive force of Haiyan. It is typical of Mr Watts to not address that issue, but to immediately divert the debate to historic, and sometimes doubtful, fatality rates.
The pseudo-science flaunted on this site, is a magnet for all those who want to believe that their world is fine and resist any attempt by others to make them appreciate the consequences of their actions. The several references to the Philippines’ poor preparation, defences and government are poor taste and again have nothing to do with the debate on whether AGW is a reality. The gloating remark by some bloggers above about accepting the dangers of where one lives, implies that the good fortune of Western nations to be located largely beyond the clutches of typhoons is an obscene justification for shrugging our shoulders.
So, no I don’t trust you, Mr Watts. You might win over a few of the insecure and selfish, but your subtle brand of obfuscation of the issues turns me off.
By the way, surface temperatures in New Zealand and Australia continue to climb.
REPLY: There is an update on wind speed reporting here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/
Anyone care to comment?
Nature 455, 92-95 (4 September 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature07234; Received 25 January 2008; Accepted 27 June 2008
“The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones”
Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere…
***
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:
November 13, 2013 at 1:43 am
The pseudo-science flaunted on this site, is a magnet for all those who want to believe that their world is fine and resist any attempt by others to make them appreciate the consequences of their actions.
***
Just to remind — you’re on an adult website. You need to up your game quite a bit to be taken seriously here…
OK, I am officially tired of the continual repetition that the only way to help the Philippines is with cash donations. While possibly true, it is coming off as a demand, and smells of cash skimming to me!
eg. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/philippines-typhoon-aid-cash-the-most-effective-donation-1.2424253
Now they are even writing ‘news’ stories about how useless any other type of donation is.
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:…
OK, I realise you are likely just a troll, and won’t be back here to even read this, but your point falls flat. Mr. Watts already addressed the intensity issue in a previous post. The fact is, this typhoon was very typical. Here is a good read on the topic, originaly posted by Don B
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/11/typhoon-haiyan-similar-unspectacular.html