One topic to consider: It seems that there are plenty of holes in the Miller et al paper to go around. Steve McIntyre adds more moss here.
Feel free to discuss other topics within policy.
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My uncle’s instructor at signalman school was the actor, Henry Fonda.
The Fonda’s were from Omaha.
Talking of German U-boats and WW2, Germany almost had that battle for the Atlantic won. Germany had developed several U-Boat types as we know, but the most advanced type that almost made it to full scale active deployment was the type 21, “Electroboat”. It is, essentially, the father of modern submarines. Of the numbers built, only two entered in to active war duty but neither ever sunk a ship. They were faster underwater than any surface ship, quieter and able to evade sonic guided weapons.
The very first American military base during WW2 was constructed and serviced in Derry, Northern Ireland.
William Astley says:
October 27, 2013 at 4:52 pm
This is a very interesting paper.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658
This has been discussed over and over for the past years. What the authors have done is extrapolating the short term variability which is temperature related to the longer term increase which is pressure related without much connection between the two.
Humans emit 9 GtC/yr as CO2 in a slightly quadratic increase (a 3-fold) since 1960, or about ~140 ppmv since 1960, if there were no sinks active. The increase in the atmosphere is ~4.5 GtC/yr (also a 3-fold) or 70 ppmv since 1960:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2_acc_1960_cur.jpg
All what the near-linear increase of 0.5 K in temperature since 1960 has done is increase the atmosphere with maximum 8 ppmv, according to Henry’s law of the solubility of CO2 in seawater and the fast temperature variability (from seasons to a few years) causes a 4-5 ppmv/K variability around the increase rate:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/dco2_em2.jpg
where human emissions are twice the average increase rate and temperature is modulating the sink rate (NOT the source rate!).
Further, their figure 11 is highly misleading, as they use different units for CO2 release from fossil fuel burning (kiloton carbon) vs. ppmv for the increase in the atmosphere. That gives the impression that the emissions are only halve of the increase in the atmosphere, while it is the reverse, as can be seen in the above graph, where the same units were used.
Analyses of a pole-to-pole transect of atmospheric CO2 records suggest that changes in atmospheric CO2 are initiated south of the Equator, but probably not far from the Equator, and from there spreads towards the two poles within a year or so (Fig. 13).
Again, that is right for the short-term variations (up to 2-3 years) in sink rate caused by temperature variations, partly in the oceans, partly (also drought related) in the tropical forests.
That the main release of CO2 is in the NH can be seen in the plot of yearly averaged CO2 levels of different stations:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends_1995_2004.jpg
The S to N propagation of the year-to-year variability around the trend doesn’t prove that the SH is the main cause of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, only that it is the main cause of the variability around the increase…
Sun and SC24 not done yet?
As the end of the month is near, it is clear that the SIDC sunspot count SSN for October is going to be above 80. If so, it may mean that SC24 hasn’t shown its maximum as yet. This would mean that ‘variable’ forecasters as the NASA’s Dr. Hathaway may need to do some upward revision, but it is in line what the extrapolation from 2003 published in January 2004; it is still holding firm.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN.htm
Carla says: October 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm
………..
Thanks for the link.
Notrickszone got drudged due to Pierre posting on the EU’s plan to ban vacuum cleaners; first the bigger ones then the smaller ones.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/27/another-european-directive-that-really-sucks-eu-now-banning-energy-hungry-home-appliances/#comment-832020
Which led to interesting tips from commenters and send me on a search where I found the central planning for the living standard of EU serfs.
http://www.eup-network.de/product-groups/overview-ecodesign/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Ecodesign_Directive
For instance, from July 2014 on, the performance of graphics cards / GPU’s will be limited.
http://www.eup-network.de/fileadmin/user_upload/REG_617-2013_Computers.pdf
But they basically have plans for all kinds of electrical appliances.
@Crispin & M. Simon
Oh my. I’m not using TurboCAD 3, although my first version was V2. I’m using Turbocad 14 and the latest version is V20. Time flies, I thought I was only three versions back so it’s time to upgrade. I need to shop the bargain bins for TurboCad 17.
If I get a chance, I’ll check out TinyCAD. At worst it will be a lark and best case, I’ll have a better cheap CAD to use.
That solved, then all I have left to do is figure out how to eliminate walking uphill going either to or returning from work. The snow? Not much I can do about that until Global Warming hits its stride. I’m all for global warming. The alternative is not good.
William Astley says:
October 27, 2013 at 4:52 pm
There was a direct response to the article of Humlum e.a. in Elsevier’s, but that is behind a paywall:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000891
From Troy Masters and Rasmus Benestad (one of the more reasonable people over at RealClimate)
I suppose that it is the same article as this one here:
http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/08/31/comment-on-the-phase-relation-between-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-and-global-temperature/
Did anyone see this article? http://www.salon.com/2013/10/24/nebraska_approves_climate_denying_study_scientists_refuse_to_conduct_it/#
Ron Cram:
Thankyou for your post at October 28, 2013 at 9:30 am and its link.
That is extraordinary!
Perhaps the government of Nebraska can employ some scientists: it seems to have mistakenly appointed some closed-minded and ignorant bigots.
Richard
The Pompous Git says:
October 27, 2013 at 11:56 pm
You’re right that part of the statement might have been serious.
dbstaley says October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
For goodness sake, Herman Wouk’s Winds of War is a fictional novel. I’ve read it years ago, and also watched the series.
Relying on novels, TV series, or Hollywood movies for one’s historical perspective is a recipe for false knowledge, but I did it once too.
milodonharlani says: October 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm
Some sources view the Tripartite Treaty differently:
http://www.threeworldwars.com/world-war-2/ww2.htm
ARTICLE 3. Japan, Germany, and Italy agree to cooperate in their efforts on aforesaid lines. They further undertake to assist one another with all political, economic and military means if one of the Contracting Powers is attacked by a Power at present not involved in the European War or in the Japanese-Chinese conflict.
http://ww2db.com/battle_spec.php?battle_id=84
Whatever the case, the United States Navy was already shooting at German submarines in the Atlantic well before Pearl Harbor:
https://mises.org/daily/1450
Hitler didn’t bag the BEF because he was still harboring the vain notion that he could enlist the British in his crusade against the Bolsheviks. Not long thereafter, Hess flew to Scotland, where Churchill had him thrown in jail. Blighty is not known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
~
Just as egregious and even more decisive than the destruction of old battleships at Pearl was the annihilation of MacArthur’s air force in the Philippines.
Disobeying standing orders, MacArthur had refused to launch air missions against Japanese air bases on Formosa after word arrived of the attack at Pearl Harbor. As a result, these same Formosa-based Japanese air squadrons later caught MacArthur’s entire air force on the ground, crews having lunch, and destroyed some 45 P-40s, and 35 B-17s.
The loss of this powerful force facilitated the Japanese conquest of the Philippines, but it was by no means”Dugout Doug’s” only failure there. More than anything else, it was the loss of MacArthur’s air force that allowed early Japanese success in the war.
Far from ever being held accountable for these enormous defeats, MacArthur was instead awarded the Medal of Honor for the defense of Bataan, just seven days before Gen. King ‘s surrender there.
And so it went.
Finally, I too have a rather substantial nose, which I try to convince myself is somewhat aquiline in appearance, if not spirit.
Steve P says:
“For goodness sake, Herman Wouk’s Winds of War is a fictional novel. I’ve read it years ago, and also watched the series.
“Relying on novels, TV series, or Hollywood movies for one’s historical perspective is a recipe for false knowledge, but I did it once too.”
.
Wouk’s historical novel was thoroughly fact checked. I have never seen any criticism regarding incorrect facts. Of course I haven’t read everything, but Wouk himself said that he had read every TIME magazine entry from the 1930’s in order to get an understanding of what the American public saw and felt at the time. The fact that he made it a historical novel only made it more interesting and easier to read. But the facts in it are undisputed. That makes it a valuable resource.
If you want an on-the-ground, first hand account of the war in Europe, Patton’s War As I Knew It can’t be beat. German armies surrendered to his 3rd Army specifically, refusing to surrender to anyone else.
Incidentally, Patton was probably murdered after the war by Russian and American agents.
And finally, my nose is not a dainty button, either. ☺
I know that this thread has now gone cold but if anyone is interested, the proposed amendment (to adopt a decarbonisation target for 2030) to the UK energy bill, was NOT carried in the House of Lords debate yesterday.
(Viscount) Matt Ridley did not disappoint, making a powerful speech in which he likened the UK’s unilateral approach to carbon reduction to building a flood dam at the bottom of ones garden when your neighbour isn’t. More importantly, he cited all of the elements of the IPCC report that indicate less certainty over earlier warming projections.
Although the vote went very much along party lines, his speech may well have swayed some doubters to vote against the amendment. Apart from the vote, It was good to hear the facts spelt out so clearly in such an important venue, and I am sure that it has given a number of our lawmakers food for thought.
In the UK, the debate is on BBC Iplayer for the next five days and it is worth hearing Matt Ridley. He speaks about two thirds of the way through (skip the rest).
Steve P says:
October 28, 2013 at 1:19 pm
Not just German submarines. The US was already effectively at war with both Japan & Germany before Dec 7, 1941, contrary to leftwing British mythology. For instance, there was the critical US assistance in sinking German BB Bismarck.
An RAF Coastal Command Catalina, piloted by Ensign Leonard B. Smith, USN, flying out of Castle Archdale flying boat base, Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, located, at 1030, 26 May 1941, ~690 nmi northwest of Brest, the German battleship Bismarck, attempting to evade Royal Navy forces. This sighting eventually led to the destruction of the German battleship.
Patton was indeed murdered by communist agents before Truman realized the extent to which FDR was a tool of Soviet interests, abetted by his wife Eleanor & most trusted confidant Harry Hopkins.
Re:Patton murdered.. . That’s just nuts. His wife was at the hospital. Had he been shot by something powerful enough to break his neck an equal concern would be bleeding to death and she sure didn’t say anything about that or attempted murder. People die of pneumonia in hospitals. Staff infection, fungus and all kinds of things can take your life quickly.
People trying to get rich selling books. Just like the Fox News book promotion scam.
Agreed Patton was likely murdered for his post-war views of what Churchill had called “our gallant Soviet allies,” and his opinion that “we had fought on the wrong side.” Later, even Churchill himself reverted to his fierce pre-War anti-Bolshevism – he had argued for their gassing during the Allied intervention after WWI – and acknowledged “We’ve slaughtered the wrong pig.”
Seldom in history have so many diabolical scoundrels and infamous traitors paraded across the world stage in such short order
As Professor Rummel of the University of Hawaii calculated, Stalin killed 43 million, Mao 38 million, Hitler 21 million and Chiang Kai Shek 10 million.