Open thread weekend

open_thread

One topic to consider: It seems that there are plenty of holes in the Miller et al paper to go around. Steve McIntyre adds more moss here.

Feel free to discuss other topics within policy.

 

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117 thoughts on “Open thread weekend

  1. I would like to say thank you to all skeptics for their efforts in battling the CAGW multi-headed hydra. Those on this side know how little financial gain there is in fighting for quality, unbiased science. It is a windmill that necessarily has to be tilted.

  2. A Short Essay On Models
     Much has been written and commented on concerning the IPCC climate models both here, and numerous other sites. I’m not a scientist, mathematician, or researcher. I’m an engineer in the private sector, and as such I work with models each and every day. In the vernacular, I’m simply a manufacturing ‘line dog’ engineer.
     When I begin a project to create a new part, there are 3 caveats that must be strictly adhered to:
    1.) It has to be right.
    2.) It has to be on time.
    3.) It has to be within budget.
     First I create the model of the finished part in a 3-D CAD system. From this I’ll generate the blueprints containing the section views, dimensions, etc. Next I’ll create the model of the raw stock, whether it be a forging, casting, billet, or weldment, and insert the finished part inside the raw piece. Then the process of removing material begins, with many of the interim steps requiring special fixtures to hold them. These as well begin life as models, and have to successfully accomplish their intended purpose, every time. When the process is completely finished, and the 3 caveats have been met, I get to keep my job for one more project. This is simply how it works in the real world.
     With IPCC:
    1.) The model must conform to the official narrative. Empirical data is not a part of the equation.
    2.) On time? Puh-leese! With 6 years between projects I could take 5 3/4 years off in between jobs.
    3.) Budget? With the budget they have, I could build a new factory for each individual process, fully staffed and standing by to machine a single part.
     In short, in the real world the models have to be correct, because I absolutely guarantee when you’re at 34,000 feet looking out the window at a jet engine, the only rule you care about is Real World 1.) It has to be right.
    Luke Warmist

  3. I’m not making a prediction, but a horse named “Sir McIntyre” is about to run at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto.
    Current odds 45-1, it won its last 2 races.
    There are 2 minutes to post, right now.

  4. …and they encountered waves, which they didn’t anticipate. When you go green is there a corresponding 40 point drop in IQ?

  5. This article on Lake Erie starts off well enough, but you just have a feeling they would work in that money-magical climate change angle:
    http://www.lfpress.com/2013/10/26/scientists-descending-on-southwestern-ontario-to-get-better-grip-on-most-vulnerable-of-great-lakes
    “Scientists are taking Lake Erie’s pulse this week, and brainstorming how to tackle some of its biggest threats.
    More than 80 researchers will descend on the University of Windsor for a think-tank, the Lake Erie Millenium Network, hoping the best and brightest can figure out how to make and keep the lake healthy.”

  6. pete says:
    October 27, 2013 at 11:49 am
    uh-oh, Japan is dumbing down too…

    No need to dumb down. In strategic issues Japan was always pretty clueless. In 1941, for example, they figured destroying the US Pacific Fleet would buy them naval superiority. Instead, they bought into utter destruction of their own homeland.
    Well, they simply failed to have a look at US industrial capacity, not a difficult task at all.
    Anyway, we have learnt a lot from the Japanese since then, so we are getting as crazy as they are in despising common sense.

  7. CO2 is Wunderbar
    Having followed and read many articles about the benefit of CO2 for plant life, many of them from http://www.co2science.org/ I have wanted to experiment with CO2 enrichment here at the golf course I work at. The big problem is having a way to provide the gas to the plant in an economical and practical way. As I looked around the internet I may have found one. The company http://greenfield-fertilizer.com/ has recently arrived in Canada and is based in Europe, Germany I think, and has been marketing their material for a few years.
    The material is very finely ground up minerals, carbonates of Mg and Ca. When sprayed on the plant the fine materials enter the stomata break down and give off CO2. With this enrichment the stomata can close a little which reduces water loss and so you get better growth with a more drought tolerant plant. Well at least that’s the idea which seems to make sense and the company offers a number of studies with very good results.
    Just received a pail of the material and am amazed at how fine it is, 25 pound pail is $150 which is quite cheap considering some of the other adjuvants we routinely spray on our greens. Pail will last for six weeks and we will test next year spraying bi-weekely with other nutrients. Even if there is a 10-15% improvement in turf growth/hardiness it is a big improvement on greens that are cut at .100 inch every day. Would be great for gardeners to try and it is completely non toxic, just mind the fine powder.

  8. Hey Willis:
    Here is a story about an outfit in Bezerkley who manufactures power supplies with no net CO2 output. Combines computers with a gasification process which uses biomass (corn husks/stalks, wood chips, etc.) for generating fuel to run motor/generator. They have sold over 500 units, mostly to third world countries. Right up your alley.
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57608281-76/carbon-negative-energy-a-reality-at-last-and-cheap-too/
    Paul Richards
    HT/ Instapundit

  9. Is the solar magnetic input negligible ?
    I’ve been monitoring daily solar magnetic input due to solar eruptions – CMEs and the Earth’s response via its own field. The Earth’s response averages about 1% of its field’s intensity:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm
    This may be considered as a negligible; but lets look at it in another way. The Earth’s field is generated by thermal convection within liquid outer core , the energy involved must be huge considering the core’s volume, pressure, viscosity and temperatures.
    I would suggest that 1% of something very very large is not exactly negligible.

  10. Lord Oxburgh will be making a speech on climate change tomorrow in the Lords. Might be worth a follow-up.

  11. @David Ball –
    And fighting for quality science is also fighting for liberty when the faux science is being used as a pretext to suppress liberty.

  12. The bottom line of the moss study is probably that in some places recent soot / warming / weather melted more ice than has been accumulated during the little ice age. But that is no indication for temperature.

  13. Otteryd says:
    October 27, 2013 at 1:13 pm
    I’d be surprised if His Lordship says anything new, given that he chaired the UEA whitewash despite obvious conflict of interest, given his CACA-dependent business interests.

  14. Paul767 says:
    October 27, 2013 at 12:52 pm
    Hey Willis:
    Here is a story about an outfit in Bezerkley who manufactures power supplies with no net CO2 output. Combines computers with a gasification process which uses biomass (corn husks/stalks, wood chips, etc.) for generating fuel to run motor/generator. They have sold over 500 units, mostly to third world countries. Right up your alley.
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57608281-76/carbon-negative-energy-a-reality-at-last-and-cheap-too/
    Paul Richards
    HT/ Instapundit
    _________________________________
    I like the idea of the machine and think that many urban centers in the developed world could also make good use of wood/biomass gasification for electric power production. Most US cities are also forests, with trees and shrubbery requiring regular trimming and removal, the product then ending up in the landfill (along with grass clippings.) I’d like to see the math behind the 10 cent/KWH figure published by the manufacturer. That and the “no net CO2” claim trigger my BS detector.
    For many third world countries, biomass is in short supply and this machine would make things worse for the people. Perhaps the company understands the detrimental effect their machine could possibly have in certain economies.

  15. RE: Japan floating windmills
    Facts from the article:

    1. 350-foot-tall windmill
    2. to generate over 1 gigawatt of electricity from 140 wind turbines by 2020.
    3. The Japanese government is paying … $226 million, cost of building the first three wind turbines off Fukushima
    4. Fishing Trawlers, in particular, would no longer be able to operate around the farm.
    5. Each of the three turbines is a different design
    6. Three test turbines come to about $20,000 a kilowatt, about eight times as much as the cost of building a wind turbine on land.
    8. Consortium says it hopes to bring that cost down to about twice the cost of land-based turbines.
    9. turbine’s blades have been designed to last at least two decades.
    10. The 2,500-foot long chains on the three initial turbines… use a total of 20,000 tons of steel…

    Energy Return on Investment looks to be the Achiles Heel of this crony capitalist project.
    if 140 wind turbines = 1 GW, then 1 wind turbine delivers 7 MW. That is probably the name plate rating. 7 MW (at 40% utilization) has the energy equivalent of 39 barrels of oil per day: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/01/giant-7-megawatt-sea-fan-announced/#comment-634470
    A proposal to build a semi-submersible offshore platform to produce an oil field for 39 bpd, or 390, or even 3,900 bpd would be laughed out of the room.

  16. I suggest the following topic for discussion.
    What is the future of GCMs like the ones assessed by the IPCC in its AR5 (and in all previous ARs) after COP21 in Paris in December 2015?
    John

  17. Well, it’s an open thread… Here’s a shout out to Gail Combs, who hasn’t posted recently.
    My wife and I were in North Carolina about 12-1:00 pm. on Saturday, October 5th heading south on I-77 near the Yadkinville exit and I was hightailing it (sub-sonic – barely – of course) for Hilton Head Island for some fishing and R&R. Well, I zoomed past a lady driving a truck towing a horse trailer-load of cute animals. The trailer advertised that the animals were available for parties, education, etc. How nice…
    …a-a-a-a-a-n-d about 3-4 minutes later, it struck me that I might just happened to have blown by Gail on her way to/from one of her party events where she provides the petting zoo. So, my curiosity is up and
    a) I hope all is well with Gail, having not seen a post from her for a bit.
    2) If indeed I blew past Gail; should the same alignment of the stars and the moon and the BBC evening program line-up ever happen again, I’ll slow down, give a polite beep, and wave.
    And to Luke Warmist: I’m another ‘Line Dog’ manufacturing engineer in a small company but we’re too cheap for CAD. Sometimes I use my personal $30 copy of TurboCAD, 3 versions back, but most of the time I do the prototyping, tooling, programming, etc. on the fly in my head or on a scratch pad. (I also walk to work in knee-deep snow, uphill both ways.) You are absolutely correct; whatever it is you’re making for sale in the private sector, it must be right.
    I’d love to take a ride on the CAGW gravy train, but I could never get past having to sell my soul for a ticket. I just can’t understand that mentality.

  18. Pete 11:49 am
    Birings a brand new meaning to Kamikaze (the pre-WW II meaning). Wait till one hits these floating platforms. Hope they remember their own past (Kamikaze) and recent (Tsunami) history when they design these sea bird choppers. Could enhance the fishing around them. 😉

  19. Otteryd at 1.13pm:
    Lord Oxburgh wants to amend the new UK Energy Bill to require total decarbonisation of the UK energy industry by the year 1230. The Bill is being debated in the House of Lords tomorrow and I hope that (Lord) Matt Ridley speaks and slaughters the idiot (In a Lordly sort of way of course).

  20. Old’un says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:22 pm
    Otteryd at 1.13pm:
    Lord Oxburgh wants to amend the new UK Energy Bill to require total decarbonisation of the UK energy industry by the year 1230.

    Whoa! He’s starting almost 800 years late.
    🙂

  21. Old’un
    Apart from a few charcoal burners I suspect the UK was decarbonised already in 1230 so the debate seems pointless
    Tonyb

  22. Old’un says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:22 pm
    ” by the year 1230.”
    I think this is “do-able”. ;^)

  23. Old’un says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:22 pm
    Brilliant if it was on purpose, and brilliant if it wasn’t !!

  24. Tonyb says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:34 pm
    Burning all that carbon-rich wood, peat & dung before 1230 must have caused the Medieval Warm Period. Plus all that CO2 exhaled by a growing pre-plague population, not to mention their animals.

  25. “Well, they simply failed to have a look at US industrial capacity, not a difficult task at all.”
    Actually, they did look at US industrial capacity and planners calculated that the US had 600 times the production capacity of Japan. They also figured that war with the US was inevitable, as FDR was maneuvering to get the US into the conflict. FDR had actually sent US warships into Japan territorial waters and pressured the Dutch to cut Japan off from petroleum imports.

  26. There has been more hinting of an “AGW” contribution to NSW’s recent fires. Comments have come from prominent NSW fire experts like Al Gore, John Cook and Christiana Figueres. (Our new Prime Minister is, in fact a NSW firefighter – but since he served a 14 hour all night shift with his Davidson Brigade at the fire-front during the crisis he must be deemed susceptible to confirmation bias.) One theme is that fires in NSW in October are a rarity. In fact, a dry October after previous good seasons is classic NSW fire weather. Where I live, further north of the recent blazes, even late winter and early spring can be far more dangerous than summer, because that is when weather is drier and strong winds can come from the inland. (Of course, when you get inland winds and drought in summer that is the worst of all, but that is less common in a summer/autumn wet climate.)
    If Americans saw a graphic on mainstream media of all Australia on flames…that was apparently taken from some public info on spot and control burning about the country. They mixed up those fires with the big wild ones in NSW – which, by the way, is in south east Australia, not south west Australia, as first reported.
    To understand what is lacking in NSW fire management, I recommend the following article by an expert with real long-term experience of fire in Oz:
    http://jennifermarohasy.com/2013/10/bushfire-management-in-australian-forests-a-note-from-roger-underwood-2/
    My own comments:
    I presume our Green Betters think we should stare at the current risk from high fuel loads, pretend it’s a particularly well-shaped navel and wait till they have arranged a better climate through their banking connections? As a full-on skeptic I don’t care if we are warming, cooling or pausing. But I care about what can happen in any era when you leave enough fuel lying about. Remember, Chicago/Peshtigo occurred in mid-autumn at a high latitude in 1871. However, conditions were horrific and fuel levels catastrophic. The fire did NOT read the rules. Also, no phoenix rose from those flames. Near Peshtigo, there was NO forest regeneration for a quarter of a century. Some areas never regenerated.
    They tell me the 70s were some sort of cooling or pausing. Wouldn’t know, don’t care. Superficial fluff. I do know that NSW had its largest bushfire in 1974-5, with 3,755,000ha burnt, 50,000 stock lost and 10,170km of fencing destroyed out west. The perimeter of one fire was 1,000km. THIS ALL OCCURRED NOT AFTER BUT IN THE HEART OF THE 1973-6 EXTENDED LA NINA!
    Let’s just tidy up the fuel loads, okay?

  27. milodonharlani says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:39 pm
    It was only 300 hundred years before that the Co2 pollution from a large populations of Mayans created a drought that decimated their numbers.
    /SARC

  28. From April:
    Peter S says:
    April 18, 2013 at 2:26 pm
    “4wdweather says:
    April 18, 2013 at 1:27 pm
    Monckton isn’t a Lord.”
    Repeating BS is never going to make it true.
    There is no such thing as a “Lord” per se, it is the form of address that is used for certain classes of title. These titles are ranked, in ascending order of prestige from the entry level Baron to the top end Earl.
    Most “Lords” in the UK are Barons (including all the “Life Peers”).
    Viscount Monkton outranks these in about the same way that a Major does a Lieutenant in the army.
    So not only are you wrong, you are egregiously wrong.
    The fact that he does not have a seat in the House of Lords is irrelevant. The titles predate the institution. Think of it this way- the Peers make the House of Lords and as a class existed before the House, it is not the other way around.
    ———————————-
    To these excellent comments I’d like to add that what the British call an earl is on the continent a count, originally the viceroy of a county or shire. It stems from the Norse jarl. Nobles below the earl, ie viscounts & barons, were his vassals, as he was of the local duke & the king. Duke is from the Late Latin dux bellorum, or battle leader, but came to be the overlord of a region composed of counties under earls or counts, eg William the Conqueror, Duke of Normandy.
    There are also royal dukes, below princes in rank among the children of the sovereign. Princes originally weren’t just royal children but rulers of fiefs higher in rank if not necessarily area & wealth than those of dukes, as with the Welsh Princes of Wales before Edward I awarded his infant son that position.
    In the British peerage system, a marquess ranks between an earl & duke. Marquesses are addressed as “My Lord”, but dukes as “Your Grace”. Princes & royal dukes rate “Your Royal Highness” & monarchs “Your Majesty”.
    Of course now titles usually don’t carry with them administrative duties. The difference can be seen between for instance the earlier Earls of Devon (Courtenays!) & later Dukes of Devonshire.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Courtenay,_1st_Earl_of_Devon
    Devon felicitously abuts Cornwall, seat of this blog’s esteemed family Courtney.
    Christopher, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley indubitably has inherited the right to go by Lord Monckton, whether he sits in the House of Lords or not.

  29. David Ball says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:20 pm
    From which we may conclude along Greenish lines of thought (sic) that the worst thing for humanity is too many humans, so that we must destroy humanity in order to save it.

  30. Sam Grove says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:48 pm
    Correct, FDR kept cruising US ships back & forth in Japanese-controlled waters hoping to sucker them into attacking us, in order to get into the war “through the back door”. After a change in leadership, they took the bait.
    The ousted Japanese Foreign Minister was a former Oregonian who knew that attacking the US was nuts (who was himself viewed as crazy by many in the regime). He tried to get Japan to help the Nazis by assaulting the USSR instead, but was thrown out. The Imperial Japanese Army was afraid of the Russians after the 1939 Battle of Khalkhin Gol. The 1940 Royal Navy air strike on the Italian fleet at Taranto gave the IJN the example it needed for hitting Pearl, & the rest is history.

  31. milodonharlani:
    At October 27, 2013 at 3:20 pm you mention that I live in Cornwall. I do, but Devon was the county of my birth.
    Actually, the name of Courtney has an interesting meaning, and I often ponder why Americans often use it as a given name to their children: I suspect they don’t know what it means.
    It has several popular spellings and the spelling of Courtenay which you cite is nearest to its origin. It derives from the Norman French ‘coure de nez’ (pronounced cor de nay) and literally translates as ‘short of nose’. Simply, our family name is an insulting reference to the family nose.
    So, it seems that when Americans see a baby in a cot and think it has a stubby nose then they decide to name it Courtney.
    Richard

  32. richardscourtney says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:34 pm
    As you know, people naming kids rarely consider the meaning of the names, at least in the US. Nowadays, many of the most popular names are meaningless arrangement of syllables from once meaningful names, or other sources, with random punctuation marks thrown in for good measure.
    A friend of mine in college was a highly intelligent Japanese American then-young woman who didn’t know what her name “Claudia” meant. She wasn’t lame in the least but actually quite agile.

  33. milodonharlani says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:41 pm
    PS: In medieval France, having a short nose might have been considered attractive rather than ugly.

  34. polski says:
    October 27, 2013 at 12:46 pm
    —————————–
    Lawn, golf course grass is a C4 pathway plant and doesn’t benefit that much from increased CO2. Some, but not by large amounts. No harm in trying I guess. And it might work better in areas that don’t get much water and are susceptible to drying out. Increased CO2 will help with that on a C4 plant. Let us know what the results are since there are fellow golfers here (me) and many have a lawn as well.

  35. milodonharlani:
    Yes, of course French fashions may have been different centuries ago. The information about my family name was factual, but I only provided it because I thought it may be amusing to some people.
    Richard

  36. As I understand it Admiral Yamamoto actually said that Japan can not win the war. Further more, many times you don’t go into action because you have calculated that you will win but because you must go into action regardless.

  37. Further to the windmill story in Japan. From my feeble knowledge of Japan I would say that the Japanese are the least stupid of the industrialized nations. But the present government has political maneuvering to do. In the scheme of things the cost of the three windmills is small beer. But it will enable the government to maneuver latter.
    The Japanese often do things taking a long view and will plug away at things the oxidentals have given up on long ago. That is why they are where they are.

  38. From David Martin’s review of
    Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor
    by Robert B. Stinnett

    […]
    Stinett has gone far beyond Toland through use of the Freedom of Information Act and years of digging in the archives and hunting down U. S. military personnel and foreign diplomats who knew with great precision exactly when and where the Japanese would attack. They had duly relayed the information to Washington, but, as it turned out, Kimmel and Short were systematically kept in the dark.
    The case, as Stinnett lays it out, is open and shut. We had broken all the Japanese radio codes. We knew what the commanders were telling the ships at sea. We knew what Tokyo was telling its diplomats around the world. We even knew what a spy in Hawaii was reporting back to Tokyo. Even without having broken the codes, we knew from directional analysis that there was a large fleet in the North Pacific poised to strike Hawaii. The Japanese attack fleet had been forced to abandon radio silence when a fierce storm had separated the ships beyond the reach of light signals.
    Honor bound to protect their men, Kimmel and Short might have taken pre-emptive measures that would have deprived Roosevelt of the dramatic national affront that he needed to persuade the country to join in the battle against the Axis powers, particularly Germany. Germany and Japan had signed a mutual defense treaty which obligated each to go to war against the belligerent opponents of the other. That Germany would oblige Roosevelt and declare war on the United States as soon as the U.S. was at war with Japan was therefore a given.
    […]
    Had he waited a couple more years to publish his book, Stinnett would not have had to lean so heavily upon this document to show that Roosevelt was determined to bring the U.S. into the war against Germany, whether by provoking Japan or by any other means. He would have had the new book by Thomas E. Mahl, Desperate Deception, British Covert Operations in the United States, 1939-1944, to refer to. The British certainly wanted the United States to join the war, and whatever the Brits wanted, Roosevelt was more than willing to deliver, even if he had to subvert American democracy to do it.

    http://www.dcdave.com/article3/000910a.html

  39. milodonharlani says: Duke is from the Late Latin dux bellorum, or battle leader
    The Roman Dux and Comes came down to us as Duke and Count. The “dux bellorum” is Nennius recounting possibly our best clues to Arthur from the depths of the Dark Ages Are you on the quest for Arthur?
    Unc Arthuris pugnabat contra illos

  40. This is of no relevance to anyone save those who read these comments in far more detail than is necessary but…
    Both my father and I have quite large noses.

  41. Old’un says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:22 pm
    Otteryd at 1.13pm:
    Lord Oxburgh wants to amend the new UK Energy Bill to require total decarbonisation of the UK energy industry by the year 1230. The Bill is being debated in the House of Lords tomorrow and I hope that (Lord) Matt Ridley speaks and slaughters the idiot (In a Lordly sort of way of course).

    1230! Did you mean 2030? Anyway here are Lord Oxburgh’s registered parliamentary interests.

    Register of Interests
    1: Directorships
    2OC Ltd (clean energy)
    Non-executive Director, Green Energy Options Ltd (GEO) (energy monitors to manage domestic energy consumption)
    2: Remunerated employment, office, profession etc.
    Occasional professional advice is given to: Deutschebank; Evo Electric Ltd (electric motors); Climate Change Capital; Government of Singapore (higher education; water resources; energy); Fujitsu (IT services); Geothermal Engineering Ltd; McKinsey & Company
    http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lords/lord-oxburgh/2494

    We must act now to protect the greedy Lord’s financial interests. Follow the money >>>>>>>

  42. Richard
    Glad you liked that met office graph.
    I had a meeting at the met office Last week with David Parker who created it.
    M courtney
    That wind turbine that fell over is very close to me. Quite why it should fall over on Saturday night is a bit of a mystery as it wasn’t especially windy here then
    Tonyb

  43. This is a very interesting paper.
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658
    The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
    …As cause always must precede effect, this observation demonstrates that modern changes in temperatures are generally not induced by changes in atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the sequence of events is seen to be the opposite: temperature changes are taking place before the corresponding CO2 changes occur. As the theoretical initial temperature effect of changes in atmospheric CO2 must materialize first in the troposphere, and then subsequently at the planet surface (land and ocean), our diagrams 2–8 reveal that the common notion of globally dominant temperature controls exercised by atmospheric CO2 is in need of reassessment. Empirical observations indicate that changes in temperature generally are driving changes in atmospheric CO2, and not the other way around….
    …A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the ocean surface temperature, and it remains a possibility that a significant part of the overall increase of atmospheric CO2 since at least 1958 (start of Mauna Loa observations) simply reflects the gradual warming of the oceans, as a result of the prolonged period of high solar activity since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004). Based on the GISP2 ice core proxy record from Greenland it has previously been pointed out that the present period of warming since 1850 to a high degree may be explained by a natural c. 1100 yr periodic temperature variation (Humlum et al., 2011). ….
    …Analyses of a pole-to-pole transect of atmospheric CO2 records suggest that changes in atmospheric CO2 are initiated south of the Equator, but probably not far from the Equator, and from there spreads towards the two poles within a year or so (Fig. 13). This observation specifically points towards the oceans at or south of the Equator as an important source area for observed changes in atmospheric CO2. The major release of anthropogene CO2 is taking place at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 12), but the north–south transect investigated show no indication of the main change signal in atmospheric CO2 originating here. The main signal must therefore be caused by something else. A similar conclusion, but based on studies of the residence time of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, was reached by Segalstad (1998); Essenhigh (2009).

  44. Climate Change is the sceptical position. This is because that’s what the climate always does. What many Warmists don’t realise is that the climate has over the last 15 years changed. No extreme weather trends over 30 years, global sea ice ‘normal’, Antarctica sea ice record extent, the Arctic BAD crumbly rebound, temperature hiatus, lost deep sea heat, record polar bear numbers, double number of Emperor Penguins, cold, snowy winters are not a thing of the past. THIS is climate change in action.
    PS: No matter what happens it will be blamed on man’s heathen greenhouse gases. This is a founding pillar of their religion.

  45. Re: Luke Warmist’s comment regarding his work:
    “1.) It has to be right.
    2.) It has to be on time.
    3.) It has to be within budget.”
    And therein lies the difference between the private and public sectors.

  46. Robin Hewitt says:
    October 27, 2013 at 4:34 pm
    I have been in search of the source of the Arthur legend since youth, yes.
    It wasn’t just the possibly apocryphal Arthur who was a putative dux bellorum, however. There were such leaders (duces) in other parts of the crumbling Roman Empire who acted as local warlords against various barbarian invaders. Dux even in classical Latin was any leader of troops, foreign or Roman (but Caesar uses it only to refer to Gaulish war leaders), although not then a formal military rank, of course. As you know, our word ductile stems from the same root.
    Comes, as you are probably also aware, stems from companion, as in the retainers of a leader.

  47. M Courtney says:
    October 27, 2013 at 4:38 pm
    Not surprising after so many generations of regression to the mean. And beyond!
    But your father’s origin in Devon is noteworthy, even if purely accidental.

  48. Tonyb says:
    October 27, 2013 at 4:45 pm
    Action by Birds First, the ornithological defense wing (!) of Earth First?

  49. M Courtney says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:06 pm
    “In lesser news, it’s a bit windy here in Britain. So do our windfarms generate oodles of electricity?
    No, of course not. They are all locked down.
    And one has fallen over anyway. One, so far.”
    Has nobody told the Brits that you need thousands of tons of energy intensive to produce, CO2-outgassing concrete as foundation.

  50. Steve P,
    Stinnett overlooks something: the treaty between Germany and Japan was a mutual defense treaty, which required each country to come to the other’s aid if attacked. It did not require Germany to come to Japan’s aid if Japan launched an offensive attack against another country.
    But Hitler was feeling his oats at the time, and the Japanese managed to convince him to join forces. Hitler’s unilateral declaration of war against the U.S. on December 11, 1941 was arguably his biggest blunder. Up until then, Americans were not very enthusiastic about getting involved in another European conflict, as memories of WWI were still pretty fresh — only two decades had passed. And Americans had their hands full at the time due to the devastating Japanese attack.
    This is explained very well in Herman Wouk’s The Winds Of War, which is much better that the television drama. It is well researched, covering the time just before America’s entry into WWII. Very highly recommended! [You can buy a copy on Amazon for a dollar or two, or download it for 99¢.]
    Here’s another interesting article that shows the divided loyalties in Hawaii at the start of the war:
    http://www.damninteresting.com/incident-on-niihau-island
    [Reading time: about 6 minutes]

  51. @polski, bill. About 25 years ago I used “rock” or then called “Glacial” dust as a project on a vineyard compared to a few other fertilizers and composting efforts to see which ones had a real effect on LONG term improvements. We had 8 test plots and 2 controls. I was very surprised ( not nowadays anymore) with the long term effect of the really fine rock dust. Vines were hardier, sugars and acids much more balanced but the cost in those days for a 45 acre vineyard were prohibitive.

  52. dbstealey says:
    October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
    Correct that Germany was not bound to declare war on the US by its treaty with Britain. But it was more than feeling its oats that compelled the Reich to commit this blunder. It was because Berlin calculated that it could knock Britain out of the war by unleashing its navy on American escorted convoys that impelled this folly. Also the Germans hoped to disrupt US aid to the USSR through victory in the Battle of the Atlantic.
    It was a rational decision, a calculated risk, on Germany’s part, which in the event proved mistaken.

  53. vukcevic says:
    October 27, 2013 at 1:00 pm
    Is the solar magnetic input negligible ?
    I’ve been monitoring daily solar magnetic input due to solar eruptions – CMEs and the Earth’s response via its own field. The Earth’s response averages about 1% of its field’s intensity:…
    _______
    Not to mention that in the SAA there would be more “irridiance’sss”
    But you may find this to be of interest.
    Changes in the Earth’s magnetic field over the past century: Effects on the ionosphere-thermosphere system and solar quiet (Sq) magnetic variation
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JA018447/abstract
    Ingrid Cnossen1,2,*, Arthur D. Richmond1 7 FEB 2013
    [1] We investigated the contribution of changes in the Earth’s magnetic field to long-term trends in the ionosphere, thermosphere, and solar quiet (Sq) magnetic variation using the Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (CMIT) model. Simulations with the magnetic fields of 1908, 1958, and 2008 were done….
    …The simulated Atlantic region trends in hmF2 and foF2 are ~2.5 times larger than the estimated effect of enhanced greenhouse gases on hmF2 and foF2. The secular variation of the Earth’s magnetic field may therefore be the dominant cause of trends in the Atlantic region ionosphere.
    They have an earlier version of this that is available as a full pdf from Dr. S. and was critiqued by Dr. S. as well…
    The dependence of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere thermosphere
    system on the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment
    http://www.leif.org/EOS/2012JA017555.pdf
    Ingrid Cnossen,1 Arthur D. Richmond,1 and Michael Wiltberger1
    Received 23 January 2012; revised 27 February 2012; accepted 19 March 2012; published 3 May 2012.

  54. dbstealey says:
    October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
    “Up until then, Americans were not very enthusiastic about getting involved in another European conflict, as memories of WWI were still pretty fresh — only two decades had passed. ”
    Americans were not but FDR was very much so.

  55. Sam Grove says:
    October 27, 2013 at 2:48 pm
    “Well, they simply failed to have a look at US industrial capacity, not a difficult task at all.”
    Actually, they did look at US industrial capacity and planners calculated that the US had 600 times the production capacity of Japan. They also figured that war with the US was inevitable, as FDR was maneuvering to get the US into the conflict. FDR had actually sent US warships into Japan territorial waters and pressured the Dutch to cut Japan off from petroleum imports.

    Not quite 600 times, no, the US was more like 10 times more capable than Japan. But that’s plenty. And no, there is no inevitable war, the Japanese would just had to negotiate their terms of withdrawal from China (but not from Manchuria and Korea). For a while. Later on the Americans themselves would have urged them to re-enter China to fight the Communist threat off. This way there was no one left to be used for that purpose.
    Building utterly uneconomic offshore floating windmills so that people can consume overpriced electricity not when it is needed, but when it is available is not less insane than starting a war which was lost from the beginning.

  56. George Steiner says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:57 pm
    Yamamoto, who had lived, studied & been offered a good job in US (oil), presciently stated that the IJN would run rampant for six months after Pearl before getting its comeuppance, which is indeed what happened between Dec 7, 1941 & June 4-7, 1942 (Midway).
    But Japan didn’t attack Hawaii just because its rulers calculated that “you must go into action regardless”. They considered their strategic alternatives, which included doing nothing against either the USSR or USA, but continuing their drive in China. The threat to their oil supply in Indonesia is probably what decided them against attacking the Soviet Union & in favor of trying to disarm America. If they had known of & developed the oil resources of their half of Sakhalin Island (now all Russian), world history might have developed quite differently.

  57. DirkH says:
    “Americans were not but FDR was very much so.”
    Correct. Isn’t that the way it always is?
    milodonharlani says:
    “Correct that Germany was not bound to declare war on the US by its treaty with Britain.”
    You meant Japan, not Britain? Otherwise I’m confused.
    Also, the Herman Wouk book really is excellent. You would enjoy it, I’m sure.

  58. Bill Illis says:
    October 27, 2013 at 3:47 pm
    C3 and C4 plants do seem to react differently. Bruce Kimball did pioneer work on CO2 in growth chambers and then open field tests. Here he gives a long explanation on different factors and often big benefits by adding to the CO2 concentration of test plants…not the best quality but interesting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52UJLpBCssU If you can stay with the video wait till you get to the effect on oranges!Also a C3 C4 comparison http://www.co2science.org/articles/V2/N21/B3.php
    What I find interesting is the almost universal improvement in plant growth when they are under stress. For me it would be Sunday afternoons with temps around 30C and greens browning off waiting for us to syringe them. We want slow growth,uniform density and firm conditions for quick greens which means that the low cut turf is usually under stress

  59. dbstealey says:
    October 27, 2013 at 6:44 pm
    Yes, of course I meant Japan. Sorry.
    I’ve read Wouk.
    Germany so wanted to win the Battle of the Atlantic that they were willing to risk fighting another two-front war, as in WWI, hoping to be able to knock Britain out of the war & cripple the USSR by cutting the lifeline to our allies by unleashing their subs without worrying about killing Americans.

  60. The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct. They came close to winning the Second Battle of the Atlantic, due to lack of US preparations.
    The first “Happy Time” among German submariners was 1940–41. The Second Happy Time, aka the American Hunting Season or Golden Time, lasted from Jan to Aug ’42, during which U-Booten attacked merchant shipping along the East Coast with virtual impunity.
    American defensive measures were weak & disorganized, allowing German subs to inflict massive damage with little risk, due in part to our older destroyers already having been Lend-Leased to the UK. They sank 609 ships totaling 3.1 million tons for the loss of only 22 U-boats, amounting in this brief period to roughly one quarter of all shipping sunk by U-boats during all of WWII.

  61. None of the Science, none of the papers, none of the ranting and raving on blogs, is going to decide the fate of our Climate. That is going to be decided by the lawyers and the politicians.
    The Supreme Court will hear an important case in early 2014 that will decide the limits of the EPAs power to regulate CO2. Maybe we’ll get lucky and they won’t decide in favor of the EPA. If not, it could become very unpleasant in the USA. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/27/Supreme-Court-Takes-Groundbreaking-Case-on-EPA-Power

  62. milodonharlani says:
    October 27, 2013 at 7:03 pm
    The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct.
    ________________________
    My uncle was a US Navy signalman assigned to merchant shipping during the war. His assignments were exclusively aboard tankers or ammo transports. His years of watching ships sunk all around him and the endless days of terror changed him and his companions forever.
    . After the Allies honed their sub- hunting skills and stifled the U boats, the fear must have been even worse for the men of the Kreigsmarine, with losses of roughly 75% of their numbers (30,000?) to the cold Atlantic.
    My uncle’s instructor at signalman school was the actor, Henry Fonda.

  63. milodonharlani says:
    “The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct.”
    The Germans came close to winning both word wars. They controlled more territory at the Armistice than they had at the beginning of WWI. And Gen George Patton wrote in his autobiography War As I Knew It that he re-read his notes from 1943 [IIRC], and found he had written: “The Germans might still win this war.”
    They came close.
    Another of Hitler’s blunders was passing up the chance to bag the British standing army at Dunkirk. That would have left only the Home Guard, consisting of old men and young boys. Maybe he could have pulled off a successful invasion of England, which would have ended any thoughts of D-Day.
    Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.

  64. John Spencer says:
    A full 60 per cent of voters object to paying ‘green taxes’. Just 18 per cent support the taxes.
    Roughly the same numbers that do not want Obamacare over here. But those in power do not care what the people want or do not want. They know what they want.
    For all intents and purposes, democracy and the rule of law is gone. Anything left is just a pretence. Window dressing. Lipstick on a pig.

  65. Alan Robertson says:
    October 27, 2013 at 7:34 pm
    Liberal Democrat Fonda’s best friend was conservative Republican Stewart, who was so skinny he had to refrain from urinating for a day to make the weight limit to enlist in the Army Air Forces. Fonda joined the Navy at the same time.
    My college girlfriend’s roommate freshman year was Stewart’s daughter, whose brother was killed in Vietnam. When the GF’s dad, a grocery wholesale salesman, met the actor in their daughters’ room, he said, “The last movie actor I met, I didn’t recognize.” It had been Henry Fonda, before filming “Sometimes a Great Notion” on the Oregon Coast. Stewart said, “That must have done Slim’s ego some good.”
    The Happy Time turned sad for German submariners after the British invention of centimetric radar & the US deployment of escort carriers to fill the Greenland Gap. Your numbers are about right.
    You might find this exhaustive site, maintained by an Icelandic friend & colleague of my brother’s, interesting:
    http://uboat.net/fates/losses/cause.htm

  66. dbstealey says:
    October 27, 2013 at 7:42 pm
    “Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.”
    The “goblins” were not released in the Russian revolution, they were brought to Russia from Manhattan and Zurich. Same story as the Arab Spring.

  67. Herewith a cautionary tale about greenie weenie legislation.
    A while ago I met an old friend and ex colleague for a rather grand not to say bibulous lunch at a very smart London venue which he paid for.
    He seemed very prosperous which surprised me since he is the business of making and supplying incandescent light bulbs. Which I imagined would have been hard hit by the EU legislation banning them.
    Quite the contrary. Apparently the supermarkets had taken over the business for common or garden incandescents, 100 watts and the like, supplied in packs of four or six many years ago. These used to come from Eastern European manufacturers at very cheap prices and later were imported under various brand names from India, China etc. which put many EU makers out of business.
    This trade has ceased since the import of such to the EU is now banned. And the supermarkets have stopped supplying them.
    Moreover my friend could not compete and so did not make such items, he specialised in rarer designs which sold through wholesalers to small retail outlets.
    But now the world is upside down, he imports these standard 100 watt and the like from Poland, part of the EU, and repackages them for the UK market supplying wholesalers who in turn supply small retailers. And in very considerable amounts.
    How so? well the EU directive does not apply to rough service bulbs so they are sold as such. When i queried that he chortled and assured me that the bulb was exactly the same one I could have bought before, the difference was each bulb was packaged in a glossy little carton which said it was ‘Rough Service’ but otherwise there was no difference except that he added a few pennies on the price as no doubt did the wholesalers and retailers. And said business had never been so good.
    I was amazed. Prior to the ban i had bought up stocks of 100 watts etc, and haven’t needed to buy since.
    So I hied me down to my local ironmonger, you call it a hardware store, where they keep all sorts of things including light bulbs. And inquired of the owner, an old friend, who in response showed me racks and racks of incandescent bulbs of every shape and size, every one in a little glossy carton quoting its EU number and ratings and displaying the notice ‘Rough Service’. Can’t get enough of them it seems.
    So as my old schoolmaster used to say, read, learn and inwardly digest.
    Kindest Regards

  68. milodonharlani says:
    October 27, 2013 at 7:57 pm
    __________________________
    “it’s a small world, but I wouldn’t want to paint it.”– Steven Wright, comedian

  69. @H.R.
    Think it is hilarious that you still have a functioning copy of TurboCAD dating back to v.3 which is the first Windows one. I started with 1.8 for DOS back when it was owned by Pink Software in Johannesburg. You have to have v.3 to convert the DOS files and v.15 to convert v.3 to anything above v.15. You can guess that I throw IMSI a little money each year to provide (my own) drawing capability for work.
    Yeah, real world engineering needs models that work first time round. Climate models are sort of like a drawing programme where you enter the dimension 5mm and it enters 22 instead, but puts the arrows 5mm apart. It is only 5 but claims it is 22. They should revisit the scaling and Constraint Manager.

  70. Richard Courtney, WUWT is an endless source of unlikely information, such as your post which ended:
    “So, it seems that when Americans see a baby in a cot and think it has a stubby nose then they decide to name it Courtney.”
    ———————————————
    But I think that you have hit on something else here – i.e. differing standards of beauty. While the Brits have long admired a good sized and shaped nose, such as with Princess Diana and the gorgeous Patricia Hodge (see her in the Inspector Morse episode “Ghost in the Machine” and have your socks knocked off by a stunning British beauty with a long nose)
    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0388092/
    Americans have seemingly preferred the “perky”, shorter, Ginger Rogers model.
    Possibly, in the UK, it’s the origin of the expression “looking down your nose”.
    Then there are those people who prefer dogs whose noses have been so far squashed into their skulls, they can hardly breathe. And the Brits are right up there in that respect.
    I need a grant to discover the links to Climate Change.

  71. DirkH,
    No doubt you are right. Still, they are evil goblins.
    =========================
    a jones,
    You made me look up “bibulous”!
    Good for you. Good for me, too. I like new words.
    =========================
    johanna says:
    “Then there are those people who prefer dogs whose noses have been so far squashed into their skulls, they can hardly breathe. And the Brits are right up there in that respect.
    “I need a grant to discover the links to Climate Change.”
    LOL! Very good!

  72. Tonyb said @ October 27, 2013 at 4:45 pm

    That wind turbine that fell over is very close to me. Quite why it should fall over on Saturday night is a bit of a mystery as it wasn’t especially windy here then

    When we were in Cornwall in 1963, my dad fell over on a Saturday night. I suspect the local cider he drank was the cause. Had he been driving, and had there been a windmill, I imagine he could have had the windmill join in the fun of falling over 🙂

  73. University of Windsor for a think-tank, the Lake Erie Millenium Network, hoping the best and brightest can figure out how to make and keep the lake healthy.”
    Isn’t Lake Erie ‘s fate well understood – as soon as Niagara Falls erodes back another mile or so, (giant flushing sound)!

  74. @ db stealey says:
    “Another of Hitler’s blunders was passing up the chance to bag the British standing army at Dunkirk. That would have left only the Home Guard, consisting of old men and young boys. Maybe he could have pulled off a successful invasion of England, which would have ended any thoughts of D-Day.
    “Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.”
    —————————————————————————-
    What point is there in my making any comment? Your own words are more than sufficient.

  75. johanna says:
    October 27, 2013 at 8:59 pm
    Funny you should cite that episode of Morse. It features the fictional “Courtenay College”, portrayed by Oriel College, west along the High & across it from my Queens College.

  76. If you would like to see the perfect example of a British long-nosed beauty, see Patricia Hodge (Lady Hanbury’s) first scene at 6.09.

    It just gets better as the show moves along. Superbly dressed and made up, and aristocratically disdainful, Hodge is unforgettable.
    Well worth a look for fans of the best of English murder mysteries.

  77. ObamaCare sign up has been a huge success, contrary to the news reports. On track to exceed the half million enrollment goal for October. In spite of all the glitches that are… ahem… primarily occurring in Red States where the Federal website is having problems interacting with state databases. Imagine that! 500,000 new policy holderss might not sound like that many out of the 40 million folks who need coverage, but enrollment isn’t counted until the first premium is paid, and the bulk of enrollees have been deferring that first payment until December. So we really don’t know how many people have actually signed up. Obama’s mother spent her last days fighting with an insurance company and now others won’t have to die that way. About Christmas time there will probably be lots of celebration.

  78. milodonharlani said @ October 27, 2013 at 11:50 pm

    Ed Mertin says:
    October 27, 2013 at 11:39 pm
    You forgot your sarc tag.

    Oh, I don’t know. I expect “About Christmas time there will probably be lots of celebration” is almost certainly true 😉 Especially chez Git as is very favouritest brother-in-law and sister spend Christmas here…

  79. Crispin in Waterloo says:
    October 27, 2013 at 8:58 pm
    May I suggest TinyCAD (a Brit Product) and FreePCB (American) for electronic drafting (schematics and PCBs)?

  80. The “goblins” were not released in the Russian revolution, they were brought to Russia from Manhattan and Zurich. Same story as the Arab Spring.
    Is the Arab Spring an attempt to raise oil prices?

  81. Talking of German U-boats and WW2, Germany almost had that battle for the Atlantic won. Germany had developed several U-Boat types as we know, but the most advanced type that almost made it to full scale active deployment was the type 21, “Electroboat”. It is, essentially, the father of modern submarines. Of the numbers built, only two entered in to active war duty but neither ever sunk a ship. They were faster underwater than any surface ship, quieter and able to evade sonic guided weapons.
    The very first American military base during WW2 was constructed and serviced in Derry, Northern Ireland.

  82. William Astley says:
    October 27, 2013 at 4:52 pm
    This is a very interesting paper.
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658

    This has been discussed over and over for the past years. What the authors have done is extrapolating the short term variability which is temperature related to the longer term increase which is pressure related without much connection between the two.
    Humans emit 9 GtC/yr as CO2 in a slightly quadratic increase (a 3-fold) since 1960, or about ~140 ppmv since 1960, if there were no sinks active. The increase in the atmosphere is ~4.5 GtC/yr (also a 3-fold) or 70 ppmv since 1960:
    http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2_acc_1960_cur.jpg
    All what the near-linear increase of 0.5 K in temperature since 1960 has done is increase the atmosphere with maximum 8 ppmv, according to Henry’s law of the solubility of CO2 in seawater and the fast temperature variability (from seasons to a few years) causes a 4-5 ppmv/K variability around the increase rate:
    http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/dco2_em2.jpg
    where human emissions are twice the average increase rate and temperature is modulating the sink rate (NOT the source rate!).
    Further, their figure 11 is highly misleading, as they use different units for CO2 release from fossil fuel burning (kiloton carbon) vs. ppmv for the increase in the atmosphere. That gives the impression that the emissions are only halve of the increase in the atmosphere, while it is the reverse, as can be seen in the above graph, where the same units were used.
    Analyses of a pole-to-pole transect of atmospheric CO2 records suggest that changes in atmospheric CO2 are initiated south of the Equator, but probably not far from the Equator, and from there spreads towards the two poles within a year or so (Fig. 13).
    Again, that is right for the short-term variations (up to 2-3 years) in sink rate caused by temperature variations, partly in the oceans, partly (also drought related) in the tropical forests.
    That the main release of CO2 is in the NH can be seen in the plot of yearly averaged CO2 levels of different stations:
    http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends_1995_2004.jpg
    The S to N propagation of the year-to-year variability around the trend doesn’t prove that the SH is the main cause of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, only that it is the main cause of the variability around the increase…

  83. Sun and SC24 not done yet?
    As the end of the month is near, it is clear that the SIDC sunspot count SSN for October is going to be above 80. If so, it may mean that SC24 hasn’t shown its maximum as yet. This would mean that ‘variable’ forecasters as the NASA’s Dr. Hathaway may need to do some upward revision, but it is in line what the extrapolation from 2003 published in January 2004; it is still holding firm.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN.htm
    Carla says: October 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm
    ………..
    Thanks for the link.

  84. Notrickszone got drudged due to Pierre posting on the EU’s plan to ban vacuum cleaners; first the bigger ones then the smaller ones.
    http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/27/another-european-directive-that-really-sucks-eu-now-banning-energy-hungry-home-appliances/#comment-832020
    Which led to interesting tips from commenters and send me on a search where I found the central planning for the living standard of EU serfs.
    http://www.eup-network.de/product-groups/overview-ecodesign/
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Ecodesign_Directive
    For instance, from July 2014 on, the performance of graphics cards / GPU’s will be limited.
    http://www.eup-network.de/fileadmin/user_upload/REG_617-2013_Computers.pdf
    But they basically have plans for all kinds of electrical appliances.

  85. @Crispin & M. Simon
    Oh my. I’m not using TurboCAD 3, although my first version was V2. I’m using Turbocad 14 and the latest version is V20. Time flies, I thought I was only three versions back so it’s time to upgrade. I need to shop the bargain bins for TurboCad 17.
    If I get a chance, I’ll check out TinyCAD. At worst it will be a lark and best case, I’ll have a better cheap CAD to use.
    That solved, then all I have left to do is figure out how to eliminate walking uphill going either to or returning from work. The snow? Not much I can do about that until Global Warming hits its stride. I’m all for global warming. The alternative is not good.

  86. William Astley says:
    October 27, 2013 at 4:52 pm
    There was a direct response to the article of Humlum e.a. in Elsevier’s, but that is behind a paywall:
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000891
    From Troy Masters and Rasmus Benestad (one of the more reasonable people over at RealClimate)
    I suppose that it is the same article as this one here:
    http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/08/31/comment-on-the-phase-relation-between-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-and-global-temperature/

  87. Ron Cram:
    Thankyou for your post at October 28, 2013 at 9:30 am and its link.
    That is extraordinary!
    Perhaps the government of Nebraska can employ some scientists: it seems to have mistakenly appointed some closed-minded and ignorant bigots.
    Richard

  88. The Pompous Git says:
    October 27, 2013 at 11:56 pm
    You’re right that part of the statement might have been serious.

  89. dbstaley says October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
    For goodness sake, Herman Wouk’s Winds of War is a fictional novel. I’ve read it years ago, and also watched the series.
    Relying on novels, TV series, or Hollywood movies for one’s historical perspective is a recipe for false knowledge, but I did it once too.
    milodonharlani says: October 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm
    Some sources view the Tripartite Treaty differently:

    But the key to America’s early involvement occurred on September 28, 1940, when Japan, Germany and Italy signed the Tripartite Treaty. This treaty required that any of the three nations had to respond by declaring war should any one of the other three be attacked by any of the Allied nations. This meant that should Japan attack the United States, and the United States responded by declaring war against Japan, it would automatically be at war with the other two nations, Germany and Italy.

    http://www.threeworldwars.com/world-war-2/ww2.htm
    ARTICLE 3. Japan, Germany, and Italy agree to cooperate in their efforts on aforesaid lines. They further undertake to assist one another with all political, economic and military means if one of the Contracting Powers is attacked by a Power at present not involved in the European War or in the Japanese-Chinese conflict.
    http://ww2db.com/battle_spec.php?battle_id=84
    Whatever the case, the United States Navy was already shooting at German submarines in the Atlantic well before Pearl Harbor:

    In August 1941, Roosevelt and Churchill met at the Atlantic conference. Churchill told his Cabinet “The President had said he would wage war but not declare it and that he would become more and more provocative. If the Germans did not like it, they could attack American forces. . . . Everything was to be done to force an incident.”
    After the U.S. had officially entered the war, on February 15, 1942, in the House of Commons, Churchill declared, of America’s entry into the war: “This is what I have dreamed of, aimed at, worked for, and now it has come to pass.”

    https://mises.org/daily/1450
    Hitler didn’t bag the BEF because he was still harboring the vain notion that he could enlist the British in his crusade against the Bolsheviks. Not long thereafter, Hess flew to Scotland, where Churchill had him thrown in jail. Blighty is not known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
    ~
    Just as egregious and even more decisive than the destruction of old battleships at Pearl was the annihilation of MacArthur’s air force in the Philippines.
    Disobeying standing orders, MacArthur had refused to launch air missions against Japanese air bases on Formosa after word arrived of the attack at Pearl Harbor. As a result, these same Formosa-based Japanese air squadrons later caught MacArthur’s entire air force on the ground, crews having lunch, and destroyed some 45 P-40s, and 35 B-17s.
    The loss of this powerful force facilitated the Japanese conquest of the Philippines, but it was by no means”Dugout Doug’s” only failure there. More than anything else, it was the loss of MacArthur’s air force that allowed early Japanese success in the war.
    Far from ever being held accountable for these enormous defeats, MacArthur was instead awarded the Medal of Honor for the defense of Bataan, just seven days before Gen. King ‘s surrender there.
    And so it went.
    Finally, I too have a rather substantial nose, which I try to convince myself is somewhat aquiline in appearance, if not spirit.

  90. Steve P says:
    “For goodness sake, Herman Wouk’s Winds of War is a fictional novel. I’ve read it years ago, and also watched the series.
    “Relying on novels, TV series, or Hollywood movies for one’s historical perspective is a recipe for false knowledge, but I did it once too.”
    .
    Wouk’s historical novel was thoroughly fact checked. I have never seen any criticism regarding incorrect facts. Of course I haven’t read everything, but Wouk himself said that he had read every TIME magazine entry from the 1930’s in order to get an understanding of what the American public saw and felt at the time. The fact that he made it a historical novel only made it more interesting and easier to read. But the facts in it are undisputed. That makes it a valuable resource.
    If you want an on-the-ground, first hand account of the war in Europe, Patton’s War As I Knew It can’t be beat. German armies surrendered to his 3rd Army specifically, refusing to surrender to anyone else.
    Incidentally, Patton was probably murdered after the war by Russian and American agents.
    And finally, my nose is not a dainty button, either. ☺

  91. I know that this thread has now gone cold but if anyone is interested, the proposed amendment (to adopt a decarbonisation target for 2030) to the UK energy bill, was NOT carried in the House of Lords debate yesterday.
    (Viscount) Matt Ridley did not disappoint, making a powerful speech in which he likened the UK’s unilateral approach to carbon reduction to building a flood dam at the bottom of ones garden when your neighbour isn’t. More importantly, he cited all of the elements of the IPCC report that indicate less certainty over earlier warming projections.
    Although the vote went very much along party lines, his speech may well have swayed some doubters to vote against the amendment. Apart from the vote, It was good to hear the facts spelt out so clearly in such an important venue, and I am sure that it has given a number of our lawmakers food for thought.
    In the UK, the debate is on BBC Iplayer for the next five days and it is worth hearing Matt Ridley. He speaks about two thirds of the way through (skip the rest).

  92. Steve P says:
    October 28, 2013 at 1:19 pm
    Not just German submarines. The US was already effectively at war with both Japan & Germany before Dec 7, 1941, contrary to leftwing British mythology. For instance, there was the critical US assistance in sinking German BB Bismarck.
    An RAF Coastal Command Catalina, piloted by Ensign Leonard B. Smith, USN, flying out of Castle Archdale flying boat base, Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, located, at 1030, 26 May 1941, ~690 nmi northwest of Brest, the German battleship Bismarck, attempting to evade Royal Navy forces. This sighting eventually led to the destruction of the German battleship.
    Patton was indeed murdered by communist agents before Truman realized the extent to which FDR was a tool of Soviet interests, abetted by his wife Eleanor & most trusted confidant Harry Hopkins.

  93. Re:Patton murdered.. . That’s just nuts. His wife was at the hospital. Had he been shot by something powerful enough to break his neck an equal concern would be bleeding to death and she sure didn’t say anything about that or attempted murder. People die of pneumonia in hospitals. Staff infection, fungus and all kinds of things can take your life quickly.
    People trying to get rich selling books. Just like the Fox News book promotion scam.

  94. Agreed Patton was likely murdered for his post-war views of what Churchill had called “our gallant Soviet allies,” and his opinion that “we had fought on the wrong side.” Later, even Churchill himself reverted to his fierce pre-War anti-Bolshevism – he had argued for their gassing during the Allied intervention after WWI – and acknowledged “We’ve slaughtered the wrong pig.”
    Seldom in history have so many diabolical scoundrels and infamous traitors paraded across the world stage in such short order

    • As Professor Rummel of the University of Hawaii calculated, Stalin killed 43 million, Mao 38 million, Hitler 21 million and Chiang Kai Shek 10 million.

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