Open thread weekend

open_thread

One topic to consider: It seems that there are plenty of holes in the Miller et al paper to go around. Steve McIntyre adds more moss here.

Feel free to discuss other topics within policy.

 

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milodonharlani
October 27, 2013 6:52 pm

dbstealey says:
October 27, 2013 at 6:44 pm
Yes, of course I meant Japan. Sorry.
I’ve read Wouk.
Germany so wanted to win the Battle of the Atlantic that they were willing to risk fighting another two-front war, as in WWI, hoping to be able to knock Britain out of the war & cripple the USSR by cutting the lifeline to our allies by unleashing their subs without worrying about killing Americans.

milodonharlani
October 27, 2013 7:03 pm

The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct. They came close to winning the Second Battle of the Atlantic, due to lack of US preparations.
The first “Happy Time” among German submariners was 1940–41. The Second Happy Time, aka the American Hunting Season or Golden Time, lasted from Jan to Aug ’42, during which U-Booten attacked merchant shipping along the East Coast with virtual impunity.
American defensive measures were weak & disorganized, allowing German subs to inflict massive damage with little risk, due in part to our older destroyers already having been Lend-Leased to the UK. They sank 609 ships totaling 3.1 million tons for the loss of only 22 U-boats, amounting in this brief period to roughly one quarter of all shipping sunk by U-boats during all of WWII.

GunnyGene
October 27, 2013 7:25 pm

None of the Science, none of the papers, none of the ranting and raving on blogs, is going to decide the fate of our Climate. That is going to be decided by the lawyers and the politicians.
The Supreme Court will hear an important case in early 2014 that will decide the limits of the EPAs power to regulate CO2. Maybe we’ll get lucky and they won’t decide in favor of the EPA. If not, it could become very unpleasant in the USA. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/27/Supreme-Court-Takes-Groundbreaking-Case-on-EPA-Power

Alan Robertson
October 27, 2013 7:34 pm

milodonharlani says:
October 27, 2013 at 7:03 pm
The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct.
________________________
My uncle was a US Navy signalman assigned to merchant shipping during the war. His assignments were exclusively aboard tankers or ammo transports. His years of watching ships sunk all around him and the endless days of terror changed him and his companions forever.
. After the Allies honed their sub- hunting skills and stifled the U boats, the fear must have been even worse for the men of the Kreigsmarine, with losses of roughly 75% of their numbers (30,000?) to the cold Atlantic.
My uncle’s instructor at signalman school was the actor, Henry Fonda.

John Spencer
October 27, 2013 7:39 pm

—-
A full 60 per cent of voters object to paying ‘green taxes’
Just 18 per cent support the taxes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477677/Britain-says-green-levies-More-half-voters-object-paying-eco-taxes.html

October 27, 2013 7:42 pm

milodonharlani says:
“The Germans’ calculation almost proved correct.”
The Germans came close to winning both word wars. They controlled more territory at the Armistice than they had at the beginning of WWI. And Gen George Patton wrote in his autobiography War As I Knew It that he re-read his notes from 1943 [IIRC], and found he had written: “The Germans might still win this war.”
They came close.
Another of Hitler’s blunders was passing up the chance to bag the British standing army at Dunkirk. That would have left only the Home Guard, consisting of old men and young boys. Maybe he could have pulled off a successful invasion of England, which would have ended any thoughts of D-Day.
Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.

October 27, 2013 7:46 pm

John Spencer says:
A full 60 per cent of voters object to paying ‘green taxes’. Just 18 per cent support the taxes.
Roughly the same numbers that do not want Obamacare over here. But those in power do not care what the people want or do not want. They know what they want.
For all intents and purposes, democracy and the rule of law is gone. Anything left is just a pretence. Window dressing. Lipstick on a pig.

milodonharlani
October 27, 2013 7:57 pm

Alan Robertson says:
October 27, 2013 at 7:34 pm
Liberal Democrat Fonda’s best friend was conservative Republican Stewart, who was so skinny he had to refrain from urinating for a day to make the weight limit to enlist in the Army Air Forces. Fonda joined the Navy at the same time.
My college girlfriend’s roommate freshman year was Stewart’s daughter, whose brother was killed in Vietnam. When the GF’s dad, a grocery wholesale salesman, met the actor in their daughters’ room, he said, “The last movie actor I met, I didn’t recognize.” It had been Henry Fonda, before filming “Sometimes a Great Notion” on the Oregon Coast. Stewart said, “That must have done Slim’s ego some good.”
The Happy Time turned sad for German submariners after the British invention of centimetric radar & the US deployment of escort carriers to fill the Greenland Gap. Your numbers are about right.
You might find this exhaustive site, maintained by an Icelandic friend & colleague of my brother’s, interesting:
http://uboat.net/fates/losses/cause.htm

DirkH
October 27, 2013 8:15 pm

dbstealey says:
October 27, 2013 at 7:42 pm
“Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.”
The “goblins” were not released in the Russian revolution, they were brought to Russia from Manhattan and Zurich. Same story as the Arab Spring.

a jones
October 27, 2013 8:22 pm

Herewith a cautionary tale about greenie weenie legislation.
A while ago I met an old friend and ex colleague for a rather grand not to say bibulous lunch at a very smart London venue which he paid for.
He seemed very prosperous which surprised me since he is the business of making and supplying incandescent light bulbs. Which I imagined would have been hard hit by the EU legislation banning them.
Quite the contrary. Apparently the supermarkets had taken over the business for common or garden incandescents, 100 watts and the like, supplied in packs of four or six many years ago. These used to come from Eastern European manufacturers at very cheap prices and later were imported under various brand names from India, China etc. which put many EU makers out of business.
This trade has ceased since the import of such to the EU is now banned. And the supermarkets have stopped supplying them.
Moreover my friend could not compete and so did not make such items, he specialised in rarer designs which sold through wholesalers to small retail outlets.
But now the world is upside down, he imports these standard 100 watt and the like from Poland, part of the EU, and repackages them for the UK market supplying wholesalers who in turn supply small retailers. And in very considerable amounts.
How so? well the EU directive does not apply to rough service bulbs so they are sold as such. When i queried that he chortled and assured me that the bulb was exactly the same one I could have bought before, the difference was each bulb was packaged in a glossy little carton which said it was ‘Rough Service’ but otherwise there was no difference except that he added a few pennies on the price as no doubt did the wholesalers and retailers. And said business had never been so good.
I was amazed. Prior to the ban i had bought up stocks of 100 watts etc, and haven’t needed to buy since.
So I hied me down to my local ironmonger, you call it a hardware store, where they keep all sorts of things including light bulbs. And inquired of the owner, an old friend, who in response showed me racks and racks of incandescent bulbs of every shape and size, every one in a little glossy carton quoting its EU number and ratings and displaying the notice ‘Rough Service’. Can’t get enough of them it seems.
So as my old schoolmaster used to say, read, learn and inwardly digest.
Kindest Regards

Alan Robertson
October 27, 2013 8:35 pm

milodonharlani says:
October 27, 2013 at 7:57 pm
__________________________
“it’s a small world, but I wouldn’t want to paint it.”– Steven Wright, comedian

Crispin in Waterloo
October 27, 2013 8:58 pm

@H.R.
Think it is hilarious that you still have a functioning copy of TurboCAD dating back to v.3 which is the first Windows one. I started with 1.8 for DOS back when it was owned by Pink Software in Johannesburg. You have to have v.3 to convert the DOS files and v.15 to convert v.3 to anything above v.15. You can guess that I throw IMSI a little money each year to provide (my own) drawing capability for work.
Yeah, real world engineering needs models that work first time round. Climate models are sort of like a drawing programme where you enter the dimension 5mm and it enters 22 instead, but puts the arrows 5mm apart. It is only 5 but claims it is 22. They should revisit the scaling and Constraint Manager.

johanna
October 27, 2013 8:59 pm

Richard Courtney, WUWT is an endless source of unlikely information, such as your post which ended:
“So, it seems that when Americans see a baby in a cot and think it has a stubby nose then they decide to name it Courtney.”
———————————————
But I think that you have hit on something else here – i.e. differing standards of beauty. While the Brits have long admired a good sized and shaped nose, such as with Princess Diana and the gorgeous Patricia Hodge (see her in the Inspector Morse episode “Ghost in the Machine” and have your socks knocked off by a stunning British beauty with a long nose)
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0388092/
Americans have seemingly preferred the “perky”, shorter, Ginger Rogers model.
Possibly, in the UK, it’s the origin of the expression “looking down your nose”.
Then there are those people who prefer dogs whose noses have been so far squashed into their skulls, they can hardly breathe. And the Brits are right up there in that respect.
I need a grant to discover the links to Climate Change.

October 27, 2013 9:03 pm

DirkH,
No doubt you are right. Still, they are evil goblins.
=========================
a jones,
You made me look up “bibulous”!
Good for you. Good for me, too. I like new words.
=========================
johanna says:
“Then there are those people who prefer dogs whose noses have been so far squashed into their skulls, they can hardly breathe. And the Brits are right up there in that respect.
“I need a grant to discover the links to Climate Change.”
LOL! Very good!

October 27, 2013 9:04 pm

Tonyb said October 27, 2013 at 4:45 pm

That wind turbine that fell over is very close to me. Quite why it should fall over on Saturday night is a bit of a mystery as it wasn’t especially windy here then

When we were in Cornwall in 1963, my dad fell over on a Saturday night. I suspect the local cider he drank was the cause. Had he been driving, and had there been a windmill, I imagine he could have had the windmill join in the fun of falling over 🙂

Jean Parisot
October 27, 2013 9:33 pm

University of Windsor for a think-tank, the Lake Erie Millenium Network, hoping the best and brightest can figure out how to make and keep the lake healthy.”
Isn’t Lake Erie ‘s fate well understood – as soon as Niagara Falls erodes back another mile or so, (giant flushing sound)!

johanna
October 27, 2013 9:36 pm

db stealey says:
“Another of Hitler’s blunders was passing up the chance to bag the British standing army at Dunkirk. That would have left only the Home Guard, consisting of old men and young boys. Maybe he could have pulled off a successful invasion of England, which would have ended any thoughts of D-Day.
“Might have been for the best. He could have then bottled up the goblins released in the Russian revolution — goblins that are still destroying human liberty. And they could still succeed.”
—————————————————————————-
What point is there in my making any comment? Your own words are more than sufficient.

milodonharlani
October 27, 2013 10:00 pm

johanna says:
October 27, 2013 at 8:59 pm
Funny you should cite that episode of Morse. It features the fictional “Courtenay College”, portrayed by Oriel College, west along the High & across it from my Queens College.

johanna
October 27, 2013 10:02 pm

If you would like to see the perfect example of a British long-nosed beauty, see Patricia Hodge (Lady Hanbury’s) first scene at 6.09.

It just gets better as the show moves along. Superbly dressed and made up, and aristocratically disdainful, Hodge is unforgettable.
Well worth a look for fans of the best of English murder mysteries.

October 27, 2013 11:39 pm

ObamaCare sign up has been a huge success, contrary to the news reports. On track to exceed the half million enrollment goal for October. In spite of all the glitches that are… ahem… primarily occurring in Red States where the Federal website is having problems interacting with state databases. Imagine that! 500,000 new policy holderss might not sound like that many out of the 40 million folks who need coverage, but enrollment isn’t counted until the first premium is paid, and the bulk of enrollees have been deferring that first payment until December. So we really don’t know how many people have actually signed up. Obama’s mother spent her last days fighting with an insurance company and now others won’t have to die that way. About Christmas time there will probably be lots of celebration.

milodonharlani
October 27, 2013 11:50 pm

Ed Mertin says:
October 27, 2013 at 11:39 pm
You forgot your sarc tag.

October 27, 2013 11:56 pm

milodonharlani said October 27, 2013 at 11:50 pm

Ed Mertin says:
October 27, 2013 at 11:39 pm
You forgot your sarc tag.

Oh, I don’t know. I expect “About Christmas time there will probably be lots of celebration” is almost certainly true 😉 Especially chez Git as is very favouritest brother-in-law and sister spend Christmas here…

October 28, 2013 12:20 am

but when it is available is not less insane than starting a war which was lost from the beginning.
It is a LOT less expensive.

October 28, 2013 12:32 am

Crispin in Waterloo says:
October 27, 2013 at 8:58 pm
May I suggest TinyCAD (a Brit Product) and FreePCB (American) for electronic drafting (schematics and PCBs)?

October 28, 2013 12:37 am

The “goblins” were not released in the Russian revolution, they were brought to Russia from Manhattan and Zurich. Same story as the Arab Spring.
Is the Arab Spring an attempt to raise oil prices?