One topic to consider: It seems that there are plenty of holes in the Miller et al paper to go around. Steve McIntyre adds more moss here.
Feel free to discuss other topics within policy.
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As I understand it Admiral Yamamoto actually said that Japan can not win the war. Further more, many times you don’t go into action because you have calculated that you will win but because you must go into action regardless.
Further to the windmill story in Japan. From my feeble knowledge of Japan I would say that the Japanese are the least stupid of the industrialized nations. But the present government has political maneuvering to do. In the scheme of things the cost of the three windmills is small beer. But it will enable the government to maneuver latter.
The Japanese often do things taking a long view and will plug away at things the oxidentals have given up on long ago. That is why they are where they are.
From David Martin’s review of
Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor
by Robert B. Stinnett
http://www.dcdave.com/article3/000910a.html
milodonharlani says: Duke is from the Late Latin dux bellorum, or battle leader
The Roman Dux and Comes came down to us as Duke and Count. The “dux bellorum” is Nennius recounting possibly our best clues to Arthur from the depths of the Dark Ages Are you on the quest for Arthur?
Unc Arthuris pugnabat contra illos
This is of no relevance to anyone save those who read these comments in far more detail than is necessary but…
Both my father and I have quite large noses.
1230! Did you mean 2030? Anyway here are Lord Oxburgh’s registered parliamentary interests.
We must act now to protect the greedy Lord’s financial interests. Follow the money >>>>>>>
Richard
Glad you liked that met office graph.
I had a meeting at the met office Last week with David Parker who created it.
M courtney
That wind turbine that fell over is very close to me. Quite why it should fall over on Saturday night is a bit of a mystery as it wasn’t especially windy here then
Tonyb
This is a very interesting paper.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658
The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
…As cause always must precede effect, this observation demonstrates that modern changes in temperatures are generally not induced by changes in atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the sequence of events is seen to be the opposite: temperature changes are taking place before the corresponding CO2 changes occur. As the theoretical initial temperature effect of changes in atmospheric CO2 must materialize first in the troposphere, and then subsequently at the planet surface (land and ocean), our diagrams 2–8 reveal that the common notion of globally dominant temperature controls exercised by atmospheric CO2 is in need of reassessment. Empirical observations indicate that changes in temperature generally are driving changes in atmospheric CO2, and not the other way around….
…A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the ocean surface temperature, and it remains a possibility that a significant part of the overall increase of atmospheric CO2 since at least 1958 (start of Mauna Loa observations) simply reflects the gradual warming of the oceans, as a result of the prolonged period of high solar activity since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004). Based on the GISP2 ice core proxy record from Greenland it has previously been pointed out that the present period of warming since 1850 to a high degree may be explained by a natural c. 1100 yr periodic temperature variation (Humlum et al., 2011). ….
…Analyses of a pole-to-pole transect of atmospheric CO2 records suggest that changes in atmospheric CO2 are initiated south of the Equator, but probably not far from the Equator, and from there spreads towards the two poles within a year or so (Fig. 13). This observation specifically points towards the oceans at or south of the Equator as an important source area for observed changes in atmospheric CO2. The major release of anthropogene CO2 is taking place at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 12), but the north–south transect investigated show no indication of the main change signal in atmospheric CO2 originating here. The main signal must therefore be caused by something else. A similar conclusion, but based on studies of the residence time of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, was reached by Segalstad (1998); Essenhigh (2009).
Climate Change is the sceptical position. This is because that’s what the climate always does. What many Warmists don’t realise is that the climate has over the last 15 years changed. No extreme weather trends over 30 years, global sea ice ‘normal’, Antarctica sea ice record extent, the Arctic BAD crumbly rebound, temperature hiatus, lost deep sea heat, record polar bear numbers, double number of Emperor Penguins, cold, snowy winters are not a thing of the past. THIS is climate change in action.
PS: No matter what happens it will be blamed on man’s heathen greenhouse gases. This is a founding pillar of their religion.
Re: Luke Warmist’s comment regarding his work:
“1.) It has to be right.
2.) It has to be on time.
3.) It has to be within budget.”
And therein lies the difference between the private and public sectors.
Robin Hewitt says:
October 27, 2013 at 4:34 pm
I have been in search of the source of the Arthur legend since youth, yes.
It wasn’t just the possibly apocryphal Arthur who was a putative dux bellorum, however. There were such leaders (duces) in other parts of the crumbling Roman Empire who acted as local warlords against various barbarian invaders. Dux even in classical Latin was any leader of troops, foreign or Roman (but Caesar uses it only to refer to Gaulish war leaders), although not then a formal military rank, of course. As you know, our word ductile stems from the same root.
Comes, as you are probably also aware, stems from companion, as in the retainers of a leader.
M Courtney says:
October 27, 2013 at 4:38 pm
Not surprising after so many generations of regression to the mean. And beyond!
But your father’s origin in Devon is noteworthy, even if purely accidental.
Tonyb says:
October 27, 2013 at 4:45 pm
Action by Birds First, the ornithological defense wing (!) of Earth First?
milodonharlani
The obvious explanation now I think about it
tonyb
M Courtney says:
October 27, 2013 at 3:06 pm
“In lesser news, it’s a bit windy here in Britain. So do our windfarms generate oodles of electricity?
No, of course not. They are all locked down.
And one has fallen over anyway. One, so far.”
Has nobody told the Brits that you need thousands of tons of energy intensive to produce, CO2-outgassing concrete as foundation.
Steve P,
Stinnett overlooks something: the treaty between Germany and Japan was a mutual defense treaty, which required each country to come to the other’s aid if attacked. It did not require Germany to come to Japan’s aid if Japan launched an offensive attack against another country.
But Hitler was feeling his oats at the time, and the Japanese managed to convince him to join forces. Hitler’s unilateral declaration of war against the U.S. on December 11, 1941 was arguably his biggest blunder. Up until then, Americans were not very enthusiastic about getting involved in another European conflict, as memories of WWI were still pretty fresh — only two decades had passed. And Americans had their hands full at the time due to the devastating Japanese attack.
This is explained very well in Herman Wouk’s The Winds Of War, which is much better that the television drama. It is well researched, covering the time just before America’s entry into WWII. Very highly recommended! [You can buy a copy on Amazon for a dollar or two, or download it for 99¢.]
Here’s another interesting article that shows the divided loyalties in Hawaii at the start of the war:
http://www.damninteresting.com/incident-on-niihau-island
[Reading time: about 6 minutes]
@polski, bill. About 25 years ago I used “rock” or then called “Glacial” dust as a project on a vineyard compared to a few other fertilizers and composting efforts to see which ones had a real effect on LONG term improvements. We had 8 test plots and 2 controls. I was very surprised ( not nowadays anymore) with the long term effect of the really fine rock dust. Vines were hardier, sugars and acids much more balanced but the cost in those days for a 45 acre vineyard were prohibitive.
dbstealey says:
October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
Correct that Germany was not bound to declare war on the US by its treaty with Britain. But it was more than feeling its oats that compelled the Reich to commit this blunder. It was because Berlin calculated that it could knock Britain out of the war by unleashing its navy on American escorted convoys that impelled this folly. Also the Germans hoped to disrupt US aid to the USSR through victory in the Battle of the Atlantic.
It was a rational decision, a calculated risk, on Germany’s part, which in the event proved mistaken.
vukcevic says:
October 27, 2013 at 1:00 pm
Is the solar magnetic input negligible ?
I’ve been monitoring daily solar magnetic input due to solar eruptions – CMEs and the Earth’s response via its own field. The Earth’s response averages about 1% of its field’s intensity:…
_______
Not to mention that in the SAA there would be more “irridiance’sss”
But you may find this to be of interest.
Changes in the Earth’s magnetic field over the past century: Effects on the ionosphere-thermosphere system and solar quiet (Sq) magnetic variation
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JA018447/abstract
Ingrid Cnossen1,2,*, Arthur D. Richmond1 7 FEB 2013
[1] We investigated the contribution of changes in the Earth’s magnetic field to long-term trends in the ionosphere, thermosphere, and solar quiet (Sq) magnetic variation using the Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (CMIT) model. Simulations with the magnetic fields of 1908, 1958, and 2008 were done….
…The simulated Atlantic region trends in hmF2 and foF2 are ~2.5 times larger than the estimated effect of enhanced greenhouse gases on hmF2 and foF2. The secular variation of the Earth’s magnetic field may therefore be the dominant cause of trends in the Atlantic region ionosphere.
They have an earlier version of this that is available as a full pdf from Dr. S. and was critiqued by Dr. S. as well…
The dependence of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere thermosphere
system on the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2012JA017555.pdf
Ingrid Cnossen,1 Arthur D. Richmond,1 and Michael Wiltberger1
Received 23 January 2012; revised 27 February 2012; accepted 19 March 2012; published 3 May 2012.
dbstealey says:
October 27, 2013 at 5:48 pm
“Up until then, Americans were not very enthusiastic about getting involved in another European conflict, as memories of WWI were still pretty fresh — only two decades had passed. ”
Americans were not but FDR was very much so.
Not quite 600 times, no, the US was more like 10 times more capable than Japan. But that’s plenty. And no, there is no inevitable war, the Japanese would just had to negotiate their terms of withdrawal from China (but not from Manchuria and Korea). For a while. Later on the Americans themselves would have urged them to re-enter China to fight the Communist threat off. This way there was no one left to be used for that purpose.
Building utterly uneconomic offshore floating windmills so that people can consume overpriced electricity not when it is needed, but when it is available is not less insane than starting a war which was lost from the beginning.
http://www.livescience.com/40676-arctic-temperatures-record-high.html
Still paddling …..
George Steiner says:
October 27, 2013 at 3:57 pm
Yamamoto, who had lived, studied & been offered a good job in US (oil), presciently stated that the IJN would run rampant for six months after Pearl before getting its comeuppance, which is indeed what happened between Dec 7, 1941 & June 4-7, 1942 (Midway).
But Japan didn’t attack Hawaii just because its rulers calculated that “you must go into action regardless”. They considered their strategic alternatives, which included doing nothing against either the USSR or USA, but continuing their drive in China. The threat to their oil supply in Indonesia is probably what decided them against attacking the Soviet Union & in favor of trying to disarm America. If they had known of & developed the oil resources of their half of Sakhalin Island (now all Russian), world history might have developed quite differently.
DirkH says:
“Americans were not but FDR was very much so.”
Correct. Isn’t that the way it always is?
milodonharlani says:
“Correct that Germany was not bound to declare war on the US by its treaty with Britain.”
You meant Japan, not Britain? Otherwise I’m confused.
Also, the Herman Wouk book really is excellent. You would enjoy it, I’m sure.
Bill Illis says:
October 27, 2013 at 3:47 pm
C3 and C4 plants do seem to react differently. Bruce Kimball did pioneer work on CO2 in growth chambers and then open field tests. Here he gives a long explanation on different factors and often big benefits by adding to the CO2 concentration of test plants…not the best quality but interesting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52UJLpBCssU If you can stay with the video wait till you get to the effect on oranges!Also a C3 C4 comparison http://www.co2science.org/articles/V2/N21/B3.php
What I find interesting is the almost universal improvement in plant growth when they are under stress. For me it would be Sunday afternoons with temps around 30C and greens browning off waiting for us to syringe them. We want slow growth,uniform density and firm conditions for quick greens which means that the low cut turf is usually under stress