Plus notes on the ARCUS sea ice forecasting contest
As I pointed out on September 16th in Sea Ice News Volume 4 Number 5: No ice free Arctic this year – it appears that Arctic sea ice has turned the corner sea ice has most definitely turned the corner now.
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at sourceDetails and raw data on this graph product here
From NSIDC, who finally made the call yesterday:
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Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2013
On September 13, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2013. The minimum ice extent was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. Sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter. Meanwhile, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent reached a record high on September 18, tied with last year’s maximum.
Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds could still push ice floes together, reducing ice extent further. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the melt season in early October, once monthly data are available for September.
Overview of conditions
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 13, 2013 was 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 median extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
On September 13, 2013, sea ice extent dropped to 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles). This appears to have been the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will now climb through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower. The minimum extent was reached two days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average minimum date of September 15.
Conditions in context
Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of September 19, 2013, along with daily ice extent data for five previous years. 2013 is shown in blue, 2012 in green, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, and 2008 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. Sea Ice Index data.
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
This year’s minimum was 1.69 million square kilometers (653,000 square miles) above the record minimum extent in the satellite era, which occurred on September 16, 2012, and 1.12 million square kilometers (432,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average minimum.
Varying distribution of ice in 2013 versus 2012
Figure 3. This image compares differences in ice-covered areas between September 13, 2013, the date of this year’s minimum, and September 16, 2012, the record low minimum extent. Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2013 and 2012, while white and dark gray areas show ice cover unique to 2013 and to 2012, respectively. Sea Ice Index data. About the data
Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Comparing this year’s minimum extent to 2012, while extent was higher on average this year, there were variations from region to region. There was considerably higher sea ice extent in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian sea regions, with the ice edge several hundred kilometers farther south compared to last year. This year the Canadian Archipelago also retained much more ice, keeping the Northwest Passage closed. The most notable area of less ice this year compared to last was off the east coast of Greenland, south of Fram Strait. Other small areas of decreased extent were found north of the Kara and Laptev seas.
See an animation of this summer’s sea ice extent produced by the NASA Scientific Visualization Studio at http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?4104.
Previous minimum Arctic sea ice extents**
| YEAR | MINIMUM ICE EXTENT | DATE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS | IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES | ||
| 2007 | 4.17 | 1.61 | September 18 |
| 2008 | 4.59 | 1.77 | September 20 |
| 2009 | 5.13 | 1.98 | September 13 |
| 2010 | 4.63 | 1.79 | September 21 |
| 2011 | 4.33 | 1.67 | September 11 |
| 2012 | 3.41 | 1.32 | September 16 |
| 2013 | 5.10 | 1.97 | September 13 |
| 1979 to 2000 average | 6.70 | 2.59 | September 13 |
| 1981 to 2010 average | 6.22 | 2.40 | September 15 |
* According to near-real-time data, this year’s minimum extent is slightly lower than 2009. However, the ranking between 2009 and 2013 is close, and may change once the final version of the data are processed. See our Frequently Asked Questions: Do your data undergo quality control? for more information about near-real-time data.
** Note that the dates and extents of the minimums have been re-calculated from what we posted in previous years; see our Frequently Asked Questions for more information.
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The ARCUS sea ice forecasting contest
WUWT’s ARCUS Arctic sea ice forecast wasn’t far off the mark in June 2013, we actually did better than most with 4.8 million sqkm:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
I had to laugh at the Met Office forecast. So much for supercomputer driven model skill.
WUWT didn’t participate in July due to scheduling conflicts with 4th of July holiday I had in making the deadline, but here are the entries:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
The gloom and doom forecast of the Met Office didn’t change at 3.4, but it was bested by ultra-gloomer “Neven” at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog who said 3.2 would be the value.
WUWT did participate in August, essentially no change for the averaged top 5 vote.
Since ARCUS didn’t plot them, I’ve plotted all the participant forecasts below.
Figure 5: plot of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Mean forecasts submitted to ARCUS in August 2013.
WUWT’s value is based on a weighted calculation of the top five vote getters in our poll here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/11/sea-ice-news-volume-4-3-2013-sea-ice-forecast-contest/
The most popular value picked by WUWT readers was 5.0 msq/km 8.9% (94 votes), though it wasn’t a runaway vote, hence I opted for a weighted average of the top 5 vote getters.
The Met Office seems to have bowed out, and even at the late date, “Neven” was firmly in the gloom category again with 3.6.
The NCAR model ensemble guess didn’t do much better.
It should be noted that ARCUS has not made the final report yet, and that their forecast contest is based on the NSIDC September extent average, which has yet to be recorded. I’ll report that when it is available. Overall though, I’d say WUWT readers did better than gloomers, modelers, and of course, Wieslaw Maslowski.
Most certainly, even though the counter on the sidebar has not reached the Autumnal equinox indicating the end of summer, clearly Maslowski is falsified for 2013:
BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
Maslowski joins NASA’s Jay Zwally in the Hall of Lame:
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
And of course, let’s not forget the Sierra Club:
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
Source: http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease
Read more on the ARCUS forecast here: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook
And of course, the WUWT sea ice reference page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
Now we have to wait for the official alarmist comments of either: i) this is exactly what the models had been forecasting, or ii) “extremely unusual conditions prevailed in the Arctic this summer and so this is no more than an aberration…..”
So will Professor Peter Wadhams receive his P45 (dismissal notice) in September 2015 if his prediction fails (as it almost certainly will)? Fat chance that. They can clearly say what they like and stay in position. Maybe he will even get a bonus as a reward for failure.
Viking artifacts have been found on Baffin and Ellesmere Islands. In fact, the artifacts on Baffin Island suggest a small settlement with a trading post. This begs the question as to how extensive was Arctic sea ice 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Warming Period, not to mention the overall temperature for the area.
Interestingly they talk about the global temperature but never seem to mention global sea ice that is now about the same as it was in 1990.
To me, the most relevant thing here is that the 2013 line is within the 2sd area. This means “move along, nothing to see here”. We’re back to normal.
Peter gives the epitome of head meeting nail.
Could the bias, hopes and intent to mislead the public be any more obvious to even the most casual observer than that reflected in NSIDC’s tortured announcement of the 2013 Arctic sea ice summer minimum extent?
It’s great news that arctic ice has turned the corner for 2013, as well, that the low was 5.1M. However, it’s not a time for gloating, as the result could easily have been very different. The two graphs that I’ve been watching this melt season are ice thickness and ice drift. Considering how little multi-year ice there is and the high drift rates that have observed this season, had the prevailing winds and/or ocean currents not been so favourable, a lot of that thin loose ice could have been swept out to warmer seas where it would have melted, rather than circulated around the polar region where a lot it thankfully remained intact. I hope it freezes with a vengeance and we go into the next melting season with a more solid ice pack than we started this season with.
It may have looked like this work from Lamb in 1965.
H.H. Lamb – 1965
The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel
The Arctic Warm Periods I’m aware of since then is the 15th century Arctic warming and the 1920s to the 1940s Warm Period.
quotes from Jimbo:
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
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The Scotsman – 29 August 2012
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
This same Professor Peter Wadhams from the illustrious Cambridge University wants us to let him play God with global climate “engineering” – aka tinkering with something you don’t understand.
Since Prof Wadhams is far left field on the outrageous predictions scale and has an unbelievably poor grasp on what is happening, I think he has made it clear to all that he [is] last person on Earth to be trusted with messing about with climate.
He hopes to at the forefront of the God-Complex Team, yet does a great job showing everyone why this must never happen.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bbQ4vIdJyvE/ULQ-HPk-flI/AAAAAAAAG88/NXa5Dz0q3pw/s1600/FIGURE11.JPG
Greg Goodman says:
September 21, 2013 at 11:39 am
” and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. ”
Jeez, what would have to have happened to _not_ reinforce it in their minds. Anything short of an instant return 1979 ice coverage, I guess.
Not to defend the NSIDC (because I’m not a alarmist / warmist), but If you look at the long-term trend line, the extent for this year is right on the line. I believe that is what is meant by “reinforces the long-term downward trend”, and like it or not, it is a “reasonable” statement. Had the extent been higher by enough that it was above the trend line, or even better, above the variation along the trend, they would not have been able to make that claim.
To quote the NSIDC: “The minimum ice extent was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent.”
Umm – sure. And 2014 will be the seventh lowest, and 2015 will be the eighth lowest, and and 2016 will be the ninth lowest in the satellite record, and will further reinforce the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent aso, aso, aso…
The quote of the NSIDC could be funny if it wasn’t so utterly ridiculous.
It must be something in the water. Here is a Letter to Nature published in 1993.
Some of us have noted that 2013 has shown record cold north of the 80th paralel going back to 1958. It does make you wonder about air temperature and thermometers in airports around the Arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Whatever happened to that “green” fleet of sailboats caught in the North-West Passage this summer and reportedly awaiting rescue? I suggest naming that shivering band of adventurers, “The Wadhams Expedition”.
why do all current sea ice graphs start at 1979 when the 1990 IPCC report showed a NOAA sea ice chart going back to 1973 (when the anomaly was almost -1 million sq km)?
Let’s not get carried away here.
The long-term trend in Arctic Ice is till, most definitely, down.
Personally, I don’t think that means a thing… but it will not surprise me if the Arctic is ice-free in my lifetime.
It is worth noting that the date of the end of the seasons melt, and beginning of the cold season expansion continues to change very little if at all. See, see the discussion at
Temporal Trends In Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Maximum and Minimum Areal Extents. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/09/09/temporal-trends-in-arctic-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-and-minimum-areal-extents/
The reason this is important is that the added CO2 and other greenhouse gases does not yet (if it ever does) alter the dominance of the seasonal solar cooling with respect to when the sea ice recommences to freeze.
The IPCC had an Arctic sea ice anomaly graph in its 1990 report. It showed 1974 lower than the years between 1979 to 1990. Since then I don’t think this graph has appeared in any of their other reports since.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/ignoring-inconvenient-arctic-data/
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
Roger, always able to zero in on the meat of the matter. If you’re married, do you have a brother?
M Courtney says:
September 21, 2013 at 12:39 pm
Let’s not get carried away here.
The long-term trend in Arctic Ice is till, most definitely, down.
Personally, I don’t think that means a thing… but it will not surprise me if the Arctic is ice-free in my lifetime.
_________________________
Really? All 5+ million square kilometers, gone?
Did you also point at the low- ice result of ‘the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012″ as being a significant indicator of sea ice loss?
How long is your lifetime? Have any more meaningless and unverifiable statements?
They predict this cr*p. People get worked up. It doesn’t happen. All people remember is that they are worked up. Keep chipping away to take the shine off the sh*t. The sheepeople aren’t stupid. Just uninformed.
Ultra alarmist V alarmist – Professor Peter Wadhams V Professor Julia Slingo
Here is Wadhams who appears to be defending his 2015 projection in the UK parliament.
” and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. ”
The Earth is 4.5bn years old.
The current interglacial has lasted 12,000 years
They have 34 years worth of data.
How the [self snip] do you determine long-term trends from 34 years worth of data?
The 2012-2013 gain is roughly half of the difference between 2013 and the 1979-2000 average. I don’t really want to hope for colder weather, but wouldn’t it be fun if the 2014 gain would be equal to the 2013 gain? Also notable is that the gain is close to the whole 2009-2012 loss.