Since failures in climate science claims are on the rise, can we start naming climate prediction failures after scientists and activists? I can think of a few: The Hansen Hiatus, for example.
Climate campaigners seem to think they have a winner with this takedown of elected officials who reject global warming science, in which fake news reports talk of the turmoil and tragedy created by Hurricane Marco Rubio, Hurricane James Inhofe, Hurricane John Boehner and more.
The trouble is, the science on a connection between hurricanes and global warming is going in the opposite direction, if the near-final draft of next month’s climate science assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is any indication.
Andrew Revkin at NYT’s DOT Earth
El Reno tornado reclassified from EF-5 to EF-3 highlighting some debate at the time about using radar wind data http://www.your4state.com/story/national-weather-service-re-classifies-el-reno-ok-tornado-to-ef-3/d/story/9i6cjSZVfUWnisUjHByPSg …
See also this WUWT story bringing the “widest tornado” claim into question.
What? Polar bears are out on that disappearing sea ice in late summer?
To put all this into perspective, note that research in this region between 2000 and 2005 determined that, on average, only 3.7% of all Southern Beaufort polar bears spent time on land between mid-September and the end of October (Schliebe et al. 2008). As the estimated total population at that time was 1,526 bears (and still is), it means that on average, only about 56 bears spent time on land each summer in the early 2000s.
See Susan Crockford’s blog: Ten out of ten polar bears being tracked this summer in the Beaufort Sea are on the ice
What? Algae don’t have enough atmospheric CO2 so they have to make their own?
A paper published today in Nature finds that marine algae, which evolved and thrived with atmospheric CO2 levels 15 times higher than the present, required a novel adaptation to adjust to the relatively low CO2 levels during the Cenozoic era, when CO2 levels were still more than twice current levels. According to the paper, this novel adaptation was to manufacture their own CO2 at the reaction site for photosynthesis, required due to a paucity of CO2 in the atmosphere. Algae evolved more than 500 million years ago, when CO2 levels were ~15-17 times higher than the present; current CO2 levels are near the lowest levels of the past 500 million years.
Algae evolved more than 500 million years ago, when CO2 levels were ~15-17 times higher than the present.
Rowers give up. Another “save the planet from global warming” Arctic trek gets a reality check from Nature:
Severe weather conditions hindered our early progress and now ice chokes the passage ahead.
Our ice router Victor has been very clear in what lies ahead. He writes, “Just to give you the danger of ice situation at the eastern Arctic, Eef Willems of “Tooluka” (NED) pulled out of the game and returning to Greenland. At many Eastern places of NWP locals have not seen this type ice conditions. Residents of Resolute say 20 years have not seen anything like. Its, ice, ice and more ice. Larsen, Peel, Bellot, Regent and Barrow Strait are all choked. That is the only route to East. Already West Lancaster received -2C temperature expecting -7C on Tuesday with the snow.”
Richard Weber, my teammate to the South Pole in 2009 and without doubt the most accomplished polar skier alive today, is owner and operator of Arctic Watch on Cunningham Inlet at the northern end of Somerset Island. Arctic Watch faces out onto our proposed eastern route. Richard dropped me a note the other day advising: “This has been the coldest season with the most ice since we started Arctic Watch in 2000. Almost no whales. The NWPassage is still blocked with ice. Some of the bays still have not melted!”
…we’d require at least another 50-60 days to make it to Pond Inlet. Throw in the issues of less light, colder temperatures, harsher fall storms and lots of ice blocking the route and our decision is easy.
…Our message remains unaffected though, bringing awareness to the pressing issues of climate change in the arctic.
Despite that admission of failure due to so much ice, readers are hard pressed to find many pictures of it in their photo stream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/95019072@N08/
I suppose showing pictures of ice is counter-productive to their mission, since like many fools before them, they expected the Arctic to be mostly ice free due to global warming. – Anthony
New paper finds cloud assumptions in climate models could be incorrect by factor of 2
More problems for climate models: A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres finds that models must take into account not only the presence or absence of clouds but also how clouds are stacked vertically. The authors find that changes in vertical stacking of clouds can change radiative forcing assumptions by a factor of two [100%]. However, state of the art climate models do not take vertical stacking into consideration, and most global datasets of cloudiness also do not contain this information. “Clouds, which can absorb or reflect incoming radiation and affect the amount of radiation escaping from Earth’s atmosphere, remain the greatest source of uncertainty in global climate modeling,” and according to this paper, that uncertainty has just doubled from what was previously thought.
See: THE HOCKEY SCHTICK
Why the forthcoming UN IPCC Report is already toast
The IPCC is set to release its latest Assessment Report 5 [AR5] in about 1 month, yet the report will be dead on arrival and hopelessly out-of-date in light of recent inconvenient peer-reviewed papers published after the cut-off date for inclusion, as well as papers published before the cut-off date which the UN continues to ignore. Since almost the entire report hinges on the output of climate models, and those models have recently been falsified at a confidence level of >98% over the past 15 years, and falsified at a confidence level of 90% over the past 20 years, the entire report and its Summary for Policymakers are already invalidated even before publication.