Temperature above 80 degrees north drops below freezing early, and continues to drop.
Many people have been watching the remarkable early drop in air temperature at the DMI plot here:
![meanT_2013[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/meant_20131.png?quality=75)
This drop looks to be about two weeks early. As this next analysis of sea surface temperature shows, much of the area is below freezing. Of course in seawater, ice doesn’t form until temperatures get below 28.4°F (-2°C), so it is close, but not quite there yet. [Note: due to lower salinity in the Arctic seawater freezes at -1.8C according to this essay at NOAA by Peter Wadhams]
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at sourceThe DMI sea ice plot looks to be slowing significantly, but has not made a turn yet.
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new11.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot isn’t quite so different from previous years, but does show some slowing:
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
With this slowdown becoming evident, and temperature dropping early, the possibility exists that a turn in ice melt may start earlier than usual. If it does, we might see a turn begin in about two to three weeks if there’s any linkage between 80N temperature and sea ice extent. Typically, we see a turn in Arctic sea ice melt around September 15th to the 25th.
Of interest is this plot done by the blog “sunshine hours” which shows the difference between Arctic sea ice in 2012 and 2013.
He writes:
The difference is quite dramatic if you graph the anomaly % from the 30 year mean.
Until day 175 or so, the anomaly was only around -5% or so (note that the anomaly actually went positive for a few days in 2012).
While 2013 was later, both started drifting down. 2013 has stabilized at -15%. At this time last year 2012 was -30%.
Click image to enlarge.
Check out all of the data at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page
UPDATE:
Some commenters have noticed a large drop in today’s most recent plot.
First, regarding this graph:
![icecover_current[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current1.png?quality=75)
That’s the old DMI plot, which DMI says we should now use this one on this page:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
They write:
The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.
And, that could be either an instrument failure or a processing failure. We’ve seen spikes like that before. It might also be real data, we won’t know until the next update.
I tend to favor loss of data, as reader “DJ” points out in comments, see this image:
![satcon.arc.d-00[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/satcon-arc-d-001.png?quality=75)
But yes, this post was edited last night at about 11PM PDT, and DMI updated the graph a few hours later.
show large areas of open water near the North Pole…..
90% is called open water?
The Warmunists just can’t seem to catch a break these days. These must be trying times indeed for even the most stalwart of True Believers. They need a miracle, perhaps another Sandy-type event. Who knows, maybe their “missing heat” deep in the ocean will suddenly decide to show itself. If they Believe hard enough, maybe it will happen. Reality is a beach.
@ur momisugly dbstealey
What jai mitchell stated about bottom melt is correct, the largest percentage of melt at this time of year is bottom melt. In extreme cases the bottom melt will continue well into winter, albeit at a very slow rate. Here is an example.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012L.htm
Now here is a graph showing thickness
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/irid_data/2012L_thick.png
If you don’t let the “smoke” get in your eyes, it’s obvious that bottom growth on that particular piece of ice did not start until February.
@Latitude
Not according to concentration maps.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen/nowcast/icen2013081318_2013081400_035_arcticicen.001.gif
Sept 1st the start of the great 2013/14 ice recovery? living in hope. all the storms this year are associated with ice area improvement.
whoopee…..>50% is open water
You still claimed it was large areas of “open water”…………
Master,
[I see what you did there.☺]
Anyway, the factoid may be correct, but it is just an example of reaching for something, anything, which might possibly salvage the endlessly wrong predictions of continuing Arctic ice decline, which in turn are only hopeful [but wrong] predictions of runaway global warming.
Looking at the big picture, the climate Null Hypothesis has never been falsified. What is being observed now has happened repeatedly in the past — and when CO2 levels were much lower than they are now. Nothing we are seeing is either unusual or unprecedented. Current parameters have all been exceeded in the past, and to a much greater degree.
In fact, there is solid evidence that the Arctic was entirely ice-free at times during the current Holocene. The current routine natural fluctuation in Arctic ice is nothing to get alarmed about. It is well within the parameters of natural climate variability.
@Latitude
In the fact based version of reality, 50 percent is significant, especially when compared to concentrations in past years
Winter is coming…
dbstealey says:
“I see what you did there.☺”
Don’t worry, your secret is safe, mums the word.
Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 14, 2013 at 8:30 am
“In the fact based version of reality”
…the CO2AGW theory has been falsified on every account. I take it you will defend it though until the funding runs dry. Given the insolvency of Europe that might be any day now. Thanks for helping in ruining the continent.
Paul Homewood says:
August 14, 2013 at 3:10 am
The temperature scale only goes down to -1.5 and below.
Presumably it could already be below -2C?
###
The plot is of sea surface temps. Water has a lower temperature bound below which it turns to ice, at which point it is no longer part of the sea surface water.
Between Day 120 and Day 135 it appears some sort of new mode kicked in. The whole curve shifted down a notch, at that juncture. Temps ran low in general from that point on.
Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 14, 2013 at 8:30 am
@Latitude
In the fact based version of reality, 50 percent is significant, especially when compared to concentrations in past years
===
I agree 100%…..especially when it’s wind and nothing to do with melt or temps
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 14, 2013 at 7:19 am:
Nope. How did you completely miss that I said ANOTHER, as in ANOTHER extent-wrecking major storm?
(Damn ignorant young punks, too much in a hurry to blog their gold-plated earth-shattering opinions of incalculable worth to actually READ what they’re commenting about beforehand.)
So, your domain is Space and Thyme. Are you really the Master of that?
@Latitude
This map of SST anomalies seems to indicate otherwise.
http://tinyurl.com/og33w9h
The ice certainly appears to be melting in this thickness map
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013081318_2013081400_035_arcticictn.001.gif
why did you post a link to the anomalies…..
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png
the thickness map has not changed in weeks
Suggest you change the first sentence from “Temperature above 80 degrees north…” to “Temperature above 80 degrees north latitude…”, otherwise someone or other will run with the story that the arctic is now above 80 degrees (temperature)!
Caleb says:
August 14, 2013 at 7:06 am
“Watching ice melt is not as easy as it looks.”
Josh! Calling Josh? What a great line!
~~~~~
But we could make a bullets list
Things not as easy as they look:
– watching ice melt
– measuring air temperature
– tracking heat
–
–
– counting sun spots
– closing the Ozone hole
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 14, 2013 at 9:04 am:
Why mess around with an anomaly map which doesn’t tell you the temperatures so you can gauge the possibilities of melting and freezing, which is the implied reason for looking at a SST-type map?
I already gave the link above to the US Navy map with actual temperatures, not anomalies:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsst/nowcast/sst2013081318_2013081400_035_arcticsst.001.gif
You sourced your very next link, the thickness map, from that same US Navy source for the SST map.
So why not just use the US Navy SST map?
Because it shows about 70% of the Arctic Ocean is at the lowest chart temperature, -1.8°C.
Your next self-designation, Master of “Hide the Decline”.
I saw a video recently (cannot recall where) of snow falling onto sea water just below 0C.
The snow didn’t melt, despite the salt water not being frozen – it just sat there, and accumulated.
Perhaps this mechanism is partly responsible to the ice growth.
Latitude says:
“the thickness map has not changed in weeks”
Reality disagrees with your assertion.
August 1st
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013080118_2013080100_035_arcticictn.001.gif
August 13th
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013081318_2013081400_035_arcticictn.001.gif
I am not sure I understand your problem with the temperature anomaly map.
John Silver says:
August 14, 2013 at 6:36 am
Actually, the surface water in the Arctic Ocean freezes at -1.7 C due to the somewhat lower salinity there.
(salinity varies in the oceans)
###
Catostomus catostomus, the Longnose Sucker, is found in many rivers of North America AND in the Arctic Ocean. Pretty amazing considering that the entire order that this species belongs to, Cypriniformes, is decidedly fresh water.
I am not sure I understand your problem with the temperature anomaly map.
===
anomalies don’t freeze water
=====
Reality disagrees with your assertion.
======
really hard to get a drum beat going when no one really cares….isn’t it?
This year humbled a lot of self-proclaimed ice experts. I don’t think many saw this slow of a season coming right on the heels of 2012 when the ice was in the worst shape it has been in since we had accurate records.