Temperature above 80 degrees north drops below freezing early, and continues to drop.
Many people have been watching the remarkable early drop in air temperature at the DMI plot here:
![meanT_2013[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/meant_20131.png?quality=75)
This drop looks to be about two weeks early. As this next analysis of sea surface temperature shows, much of the area is below freezing. Of course in seawater, ice doesn’t form until temperatures get below 28.4°F (-2°C), so it is close, but not quite there yet. [Note: due to lower salinity in the Arctic seawater freezes at -1.8C according to this essay at NOAA by Peter Wadhams]
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at sourceThe DMI sea ice plot looks to be slowing significantly, but has not made a turn yet.
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new11.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot isn’t quite so different from previous years, but does show some slowing:
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
With this slowdown becoming evident, and temperature dropping early, the possibility exists that a turn in ice melt may start earlier than usual. If it does, we might see a turn begin in about two to three weeks if there’s any linkage between 80N temperature and sea ice extent. Typically, we see a turn in Arctic sea ice melt around September 15th to the 25th.
Of interest is this plot done by the blog “sunshine hours” which shows the difference between Arctic sea ice in 2012 and 2013.
He writes:
The difference is quite dramatic if you graph the anomaly % from the 30 year mean.
Until day 175 or so, the anomaly was only around -5% or so (note that the anomaly actually went positive for a few days in 2012).
While 2013 was later, both started drifting down. 2013 has stabilized at -15%. At this time last year 2012 was -30%.
Click image to enlarge.
Check out all of the data at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page
UPDATE:
Some commenters have noticed a large drop in today’s most recent plot.
First, regarding this graph:
![icecover_current[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current1.png?quality=75)
That’s the old DMI plot, which DMI says we should now use this one on this page:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
They write:
The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.
And, that could be either an instrument failure or a processing failure. We’ve seen spikes like that before. It might also be real data, we won’t know until the next update.
I tend to favor loss of data, as reader “DJ” points out in comments, see this image:
![satcon.arc.d-00[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/satcon-arc-d-001.png?quality=75)
But yes, this post was edited last night at about 11PM PDT, and DMI updated the graph a few hours later.
Much of the most recent melting will still be primarily fresh water as will the melt ponds. As such I don’t think the temperature needs to be much below freezing for that ice to reform. We won’t see any ice gains at the edges but the overall downward trend could slow down and stabilize sooner than we’ve seen in recent years. Light winds would also help this along.
Don Allen says:
August 14, 2013 at 3:53 am
The DMI sea ice plot took a major “dump” today (8/14)
Allen here comes the reason:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/index.uk.php
There is a gigantic drop in DMI ice cover this morning.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
Instrument failure?
Any insight?
This DMI extent chart, seen on the last Sea Ice News, currently shows an amazing large drop, about 700,000 km²:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
But this one I just found on DMI’s site isn’t anywhere near as alarming, drop is much smaller:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
The alarming one is the old-type chart discussed and found here, which used 30% concentration. This product has been replaced, at some point they’ll stop making the old-type charts.
The new and current type of chart, discussed and found here, use 15% concentration. So DMI is now more compatible with the other 15% concentration extent records, such as IARC-JAXA. BTW, JAXA, as seen above, currently does not have a large drop on the chart dated August 13 2013. No drop at all, actually.
Looks like DMI will most likely be correcting their chart later.
From tommoriarty on August 14, 2013 at 6:03 am:
A few paragraphs worth, currently awaiting moderation.
Since “moderation” became the new spam bucket, hopefully you can read what’s up in less than an hour.
@tommoriarty and others regarding this graph:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
That’s the old DMI plot, which DMI says we should now use this one on this page:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
They write:
And, that could be either an instrument failure or a processing failure. We’ve seen spikes like that before. It might also be real data, we won’t know until the next update. I tend to favor loss of data, as DJ points out above, see this image:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/plots/satcon.arc.d-00.png
But yes, this post was edited last night at about 11PM PDT, and DMI updated the graph a few hours later.
DJ, They can’t have based their number on that image for the 13th? Isn’t it obvious there is a sensor error in that image? Nature doesn’t take perfect pie slices out of the arctic overnight.
Above 80 degrees? How about below 49 degrees? The growing season in Northern Minnesota is officially over as northern Minnesota has logged it’s first freezing temperatures of the fal, er, make that summer. At least I think it’s summer.
Actually, the surface water in the Arctic Ocean freezes at -1.7 C due to the somewhat lower salinity there.
(salinity varies in the oceans)
REPLY: Good to know, thanks. here they say -1.9C
http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/o_strat.html
Anthony
What happened to the building polar sea cyclone that was being discussed here as recently as a week ago???
Means nothing , such is the wondrous ‘power ‘ of CO2 it can both make ice grow and shrink , both of which are of course ‘poof ‘ of climate doom .
Awaiting a giant party thrown by the Warmist movement. Thermogeddon avoided; Polar Bears saved; CO2 reductions not necessary. Yay!
Make a bonfire of the CO2AGW papers and stacks of Nature Climate Change issues.
Marco says:
August 14, 2013 at 5:34 am
“For those of you wondering about that huge drop on the 13th:”
Looks like a continent sized triangular spaceship has landed with the tip at the pole.
RE: John Silver says:
August 14, 2013 at 6:36 am
Arctic Ocean water is weird. When a lot of freezing is going on, the new ice is exuding salt, and the brine briefly increases the salinity of the surface water, (as it sinks through it,) and that lowers the freezing point of the surface water. However, the ice becomes mostly fresh, (with a few embedded pockets of brine,) and when that fresh-water-ice later melts it lowers the salinity of the surface water, which raises the freezing point of the surface water. Right now it is easier to freeze the surface water, (by a tenth of a degree or two tenths,) than it will be once freezing gets underway in earnest.
Watching ice melt is not as easy as it looks.
RE: wws says:
August 14, 2013 at 6:39 am
“What happened to the building polar sea cyclone that was being discussed here as recently as a week ago???”
All over and done with. Didn’t break up the ice as much as last year’s, likely because it was colder, and also swirled winds around the pole rather than across the pole.
For a while the gale stood nearly atop the pole, and thus became a storm with no north side. Alarmist media blew a big chance for a sensational headline: “Global Warming Creates Storm With 360 Degrees Of South Side!!!”
@kadaka
“Anyone seeing another extent-wrecking major storm coming soon?”
Did you miss the storm that started a week ago Tuesday and ended yesterday? That is what caused the temperature to drop north of 80 and brought the anomalously warm temperatures over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2012/avn/Rhavn00120120807.png
The latest ECMWF has another storm forming over the CAB in ten days, but that is so far away it may likely change.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013081400/ECH1-240.GIF?14-12
There seems to be a seasonal shift this year in southern Canada. We are currently experiencing mid-September temperatures and have been for several weeks. This reminds me of the summer of 1959 when a person needed to wear a jacket to go outside in mid-August. We survived then and we will survive now. I have been reading predictions made this year for my region in the Farmers Almanac – it seems spot on – and the Alamanac uses in large part, projections based upon solar activity.
REPLY: Good to know, thanks. here they say -1.9C
====
first you get melt…..which makes it a little less salty
“By the way, you have to wonder when the fine organizations that produce the graphs will use 1989-2010 as the standard, instead of 1979-2000. It would really change the perspective on the Arctic.”
I’ve wondered about this myself. However, since this is new instrumental data, why not provide both. Why not also calculate since-the-beginning averages that update constantly. These aren’t physical cherries, we can pick em and munch em more then once.
at this time of the season the ice is significantly melted from below, not above.
I’m going to give a theory of why this is happening. So jump on.
1) Solar UV is down, lowering the temperature in the 60-80 km range.
2) Ice crystals form in the 60-80 km range called Noctilucent Clouds.
3) The ice crystals reflect low angle Solar energy into space reducing the energy reaching the North/South Poles.
4) A positive feedback loop is created until Solar UV ramps backup.
5) This weak Solar cycle will produce less UV for the next 8 years.
6) If the next Solar cycle is also low, expect the world cooling to continue at an increased rate.
The easy way to monitor the total Solar output reaching the Earth is by using the 10.7cm Flux readings:
1) 70-100 -> cooling.
2) 100-130 -> stay the same.
3) 130-up -> warming
Remember that the energy reaching the Earth is the area under the Flux curve throughout recorded history [1600 until now]. The almost 2 years [2006-7] of zero Sun spots gave average Flux readings of 65.
MODIS Satellite images caught tantalizing peeks through the clouds today that show large areas of open water near the North Pole.
Terra: http://tinyurl.com/oe648ks
Aqua: http://tinyurl.com/ndw5u7q
Need to keep an eye on when snow starts falling in Siberia. The sooner the snow, the colder the NH winter. That’s where cold air is manufactured and exported.
On the anomaly graph, the arrival of the August 2012 storm is plainly visible, yet CACCAists have tried to deny the effect of that egregious cyclone.
Isn’t jai mitchell’s alarmism amusing? Like Chicken Little, he is running around in circles shouting, “The sky is falling!!”
But it was only an acorn.