Temperature above 80 degrees north drops below freezing early, and continues to drop.
Many people have been watching the remarkable early drop in air temperature at the DMI plot here:
![meanT_2013[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/meant_20131.png?quality=75)
This drop looks to be about two weeks early. As this next analysis of sea surface temperature shows, much of the area is below freezing. Of course in seawater, ice doesn’t form until temperatures get below 28.4°F (-2°C), so it is close, but not quite there yet. [Note: due to lower salinity in the Arctic seawater freezes at -1.8C according to this essay at NOAA by Peter Wadhams]
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at sourceThe DMI sea ice plot looks to be slowing significantly, but has not made a turn yet.
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new11.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot isn’t quite so different from previous years, but does show some slowing:
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
With this slowdown becoming evident, and temperature dropping early, the possibility exists that a turn in ice melt may start earlier than usual. If it does, we might see a turn begin in about two to three weeks if there’s any linkage between 80N temperature and sea ice extent. Typically, we see a turn in Arctic sea ice melt around September 15th to the 25th.
Of interest is this plot done by the blog “sunshine hours” which shows the difference between Arctic sea ice in 2012 and 2013.
He writes:
The difference is quite dramatic if you graph the anomaly % from the 30 year mean.
Until day 175 or so, the anomaly was only around -5% or so (note that the anomaly actually went positive for a few days in 2012).
While 2013 was later, both started drifting down. 2013 has stabilized at -15%. At this time last year 2012 was -30%.
Click image to enlarge.
Check out all of the data at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page
UPDATE:
Some commenters have noticed a large drop in today’s most recent plot.
First, regarding this graph:
![icecover_current[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current1.png?quality=75)
That’s the old DMI plot, which DMI says we should now use this one on this page:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
They write:
The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.
And, that could be either an instrument failure or a processing failure. We’ve seen spikes like that before. It might also be real data, we won’t know until the next update.
I tend to favor loss of data, as reader “DJ” points out in comments, see this image:
![satcon.arc.d-00[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/satcon-arc-d-001.png?quality=75)
But yes, this post was edited last night at about 11PM PDT, and DMI updated the graph a few hours later.
MS&T says:
Translation: “Yes, I smeared a respected scientist, but I refuse to apologize because I am a no-account who only posts talking points, and who accuses everyone else of my own failings. But I will look for similar no-accounts, and post their no-account opinions in order to attack a well respected scientist.”
That about right?
You are the same hypocrite who demanded only ‘peer reviewed’ authority because you couln’t answer a question. And you have no training or education like the person you smeared. But you intend to continue being a reprehensible no-account, with no education, and hiding behind a screen name? What a guy. Why is it that the alarmist crowd is populated by your kind?
Global sea ice anomaly positive 5th or 6th time this year and staying there. Time to make post on this Anthony?
Master of Space and Thyme:
Post your apology, not drivel.
Richard
This is really interesting … most of you, including the author don’t really understand the physical relationship between the salinity of water and its freezing point! I’m amazed lol
I hope you realize I was sent here to prove a point about the lies and censorship at this blog. Thanks for making my job so easy.
I have screen shots of all my comments to prove what a fraud this blog has become
BYE
MST,
Is “Angech” correct? Are you arefugee from a blog/echo chamber that is unable to generate any traffic? LOL! So you come here… and raise the traffic on WUWT. And all the while complaining of non-existent ‘censorship’.
That sounds like James Hansen claiming he was muzzled by GW Bush — after some 1,400 speeches. Could you be any less credible?
[and this is waaaaayyyy off topic and hasn’t one darn thing to do with this thread… your threadjacking is getting tirsesome, and you are now on premoderated status – only relevant comments will be approved per site policy – feel free to be as upset as you wish – Anthony]
MST,
Thanks for admitting we were excatly right about you. You were “sent here”, eh? I’m surprised you admit it. But they probably only paid you peanuts. That’s how it usually works with paid trolls.
Probably sent from some no-account blog that gets zero site traffic and is desperate to fabricate some sort of story.
And complaining about “censorship”, when you had your comment snipped for labeling Anthony a “liar”? Earth to spiceboi: you violated site Policy. That is not ‘censoring’ you, and more than five dozen of your comments that were posted prove it. Could you be any less credible?
If you want to see real censorship, use my name, and post on RC, or SkS, or Closed Mind. That comment will never see the light of day. If it does, it will be a first on all of them.
Also, as you know anyone can fabricate screen shots, so have at it. It’s easy-peasy.
Anyway, I think I speak for lots of folks when I say, “Good riddance, troll.” I’m just surprised you admitted it.
Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 15, 2013 at 4:48 pm
“I hope you realize I was sent here to prove a point about the lies and censorship at this blog. Thanks for making my job so easy.
I have screen shots of all my comments to prove what a fraud this blog has become
BYE”
=====
How pitiful…..”I’m not really stupid….I’m really somebody….I’m a secret agent”
I think Thyme is a vegetable isn’t it.
It might be a herb instead but it is certainly in a vegetative state.
Anyway, it ain’t growing on the Arctic sea ice right now with temps well below normal and well below zero.
When they could not tweak the PIOMASS input anymore (Al Gore ithms) to produce a lower volume and it started to rise there was widespread lamentation at your non favourite sites db
jon says:
August 15, 2013 at 4:47 pm
We (collectively) are aware of its effect, have looked at its effect in real time on sound path ray paths and temperature vs depth curves, and know its (very distant past) effect and its today’s values of salinity on sea water circulation. In earlier points, we discussed its effect on sea ice melt ponds at various times-of-year, and at various “depths” above and below the ice.
What particular part of salinity do you wish to discuss further?
Note that temperature now is running lower and dipping earlier than it did in 2005.
Bill Illis,
Yes, I’ve herb of Thyme before.
Lettuce discuss the matter further before this thread fennelly closes; I truly ask your sage advice: of watt parsely in thyme shall we stay whilst we dell in the subject?
Pamela Gray says:
August 15, 2013 at 4:26 pm
Thank you for the png.
It is “labeled” average” sea ice extent for September, identified as 5,600 Kkm2 of sea ice: Can you locate an image of the actual “outline” of the sea ice at actual minimum that year?
Coming late to this one, but surely any MST fans must realize that the warmists are somewhat welcomed here.
It’s called target practice.
philincalifornia says:
August 15, 2013 at 6:04 pm
Sire! I resemble that remark! By his explicit silence, Master has verified that he HAS researched ALL of the previous discussion and as a bonified and certified Secretary-has-denied skeptical member of the JEFD, he has certified that he HAS independently researched ALL of his previously-agreed-upon talking points, and needs no further “practice” before entering more talking points to be targeted.
“Record heat wave bakes Canada’s North
Temperatures 10 degrees above normal across Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories”.
That is 10 degrees Celsius, about 18 Degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/08/13/north-weather-heat.html
The NSIDC charts show continued Ice Melt and continuing reduction in Arctic Ice Extent and area.
nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png
Umm…is it safe to come out now?
Meanwhile, back at the “North Pole Camera….”
Today temperatures bottomed out at -8.6 Celsius. (That is 16.5 Fahrenheit.)
Temperatures have since risen to -5.4 Celsius. (22.3 Fahrenheit.)
Winds are not coming from the bitter cold icecap of Greenland. Winds are from the north, crossing miles and miles of ice which cannot be slushy to have temperatures so low. Slush will have frozen and melt-water pools will be freezing, releasing latent heat in the process, but that latent heat isn’t warming things up much at all.
Roughly 100 miles north-northeast is another buoy, “Paws Buoy 975420.” It must be across a weak area of high pressure, for winds there are from the south-southeast. The temperature there is nearly the same: -5.3 Celsius, and falling. Temperatures at that buoy have been below the freezing point of salt water since August 10, and below the freezing point of fresh water for well over a week.
At the very least it should be obvious that a wrench is in the works of typical ice-melt, in that quadrant of the Arctic Sea.
Further thoughts at bottom-of-post update at http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/north-pole-camera-one-pictures-polar-bear-tracks/
Kelly Manning says: “Eeek!! S-O-S! S-O-S! Mayday! Mayday!!”
[Well, maybe that wasn’t verbatim…]
To counteract Kelly’s terrible fright at the Arctic ice situation, here is the same info, except it’s for the Antarctic:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_daily_concentration_hires.png
See, Kelly? You can relax now. There’s nothing to be alarmed about. It’s all in your head.
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 15, 2013 at 4:11 pm:
Um, I just said above:
It was hot, which happens, not unusual. I asked for proper data. Granted it’s a bit hard to accept when the US Navy shows so much water surrounding the coast is below freezing, but that’s how it can go when the heat comes up from the south. Did you also not see what crosspatch had wrote?
That’s the problem when you do too much mass debating, it’s harder to see things. You have to stop rushing to the end and posting your victory. Take your time, be sure you know what you’re doing. Make your words glide straight and smooth, well oiled, before they slam home like steel. Then when you hit the button and eject your thoughts upon the internet, you’ll know it feels right, you had to do it. And you liked it!
Come on, shoot out those warm globs of thoughts all over the blank canvas of the internet and see what sticks. Come, oh Master, come!
Kelly Manning says:
August 15, 2013 at 6:51 pm
Hi Kelly! Robt waves very friendly-like. 8<)
(Are you here jest in Thyme two? ) Remember the rules of the game for this thread, what comment you do not respond to, you have independently researched, and have completely agreed with as stated.
Yes, we all agree that the tundra and forests 1200 km south of the Arctic ocean shore have warmed up this summer. Seems like they often do that though.
By the way, what is the measured water temperature up under the edge of the Arctic sea ice today? How much did change from yesterday's or last weeks or lastyear's "average" for this week in mid-August?
What do you fear from any potential Arctic Sea Ice decline? Thyme says (by emission and omission) that he either fears everything or doesn't fear it all because declining sea ice from the past few years of minimum sea ice in September don't really mean a thing. If not more cooling.
Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 15, 2013 at 4:22 pm (replying to)
@richardscourtney
Neat!
I have 32 peer-reviewed papers on open ocean albedo alone already copied, and 96 more on Arctic sea ice and heating and weather and other stuff. What can I help you research?
Oh. By the way, none of these papers support your talking points. But you knew that already, because you agree with all of our earlier statements.
RE: Retired Engineer John says:
August 14, 2013 at 9:33 am
I’d like to thank you for your comment, early on in this discussion. It really got me thinking about the dynamics of the refreeze. While I think Dr. Wadham’s idea of the entire water column needing to chill right down to the pycnocline has merit, (and have seen some neat video of ice freezing below the ice and slowly floating upwards that seems to affirm that concept,) I think other factors can come into play as well, not the least of which is that the pycnocline needs to be punctured by sinking brine in order for thermohaline circulation to occur.
Dr. Wadham’s ideas are wonderfully elegant, and likely explain a lot of what occurs during a refreeze, however as engineer I’m sure you know “a lot” isn’t always good enough, as reality tends to to throw a wrench in the works of well thought out ideas. (Murphy’s Law)
There is stuff going on during this current refreeze that seems to break certain rules, and that baffles me. Therefore I am casting around for ideas such as your idea about the power of hydration energy. Another idea involves the fact salt water does not necessarily need to sink before it reaches it’s freezing point when cooled, if it is in contact with ice already floating and already below the freezing point. (Think of the complex problem created when a falling freshwater snowflake at just below the freezing point lands on saltwater just above the freezing point; will the snowflake melt or will the saltwater it lands on freeze? Besides the hydration energy you have to factor in the latent energy of the phase change from ice to water or from water to ice.
Straining my mind about this stuff is great fun, but I doubt I am close to any sort of answer. (I thought I had it all figured out at one point, but then I rolled over and woke up.) In any case I really appreciate your attitude and what you add to the discussion.
RE: RACookPE1978 says:
August 15, 2013 at 3:50 pm
While I listen with interest to your political ideas, what I find most cool are your ideas concerning direct and indirect sunshine, and the whole matter of albedo. You’ve done some hard work there, and I thank you for sharing.
It would be nice if we got paid for all this hard work we are doing, but it is likely “our reward is in heaven,” and therefore we might as well just enjoy the fun of seeing truth as it is displayed to us by nature here on earth. Witnessing such truths is a joy which those who distort truth for political ends know nothing about. Sort of sad, when you think of it. They are impoverished, yet think that makes them better off.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.php?all=y
Sea ice minimums. Click the “show all” button if they don’t all show up. Scroll down to September minimum 2005.