WUWT Hot sheet for Monday August 12th, 2013

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In case you missed it over the weekend, AP retracts the North Pole Lake image: Follow up: the bogus ‘North Pole becomes a lake’ story

North Pole Lake

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Obama’s OFA (not actually Obama but they play him on Twitter) says “because the science says so”. Really? That’s the best you’ve got?

But let’s not let such things like ‘climate changing’ fossil fuel emissions deprive my family of our dog’s company while on vacation.

Obama_dog_copter

I feel for the Marine that got that pilot duty.

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The journey from hippie believer to climate skeptic, yours truly gets a mention:

http://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/2013/08/08/climate-change-what-are-the-real-questions/?singlepage=true

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New paper finds climate models are unable to reproduce the known climate of the past 6,000 years — Published in Climate of the Past

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Speaking of models, so does Hans Von Storch: ‘the warming stagnation ’98-’12 is no longer consistent with model projections even at 2% confidence.’

In recent years, the increase in near-surface global annual mean temperatures has emerged as considerably smaller than many had expected. We investigate whether this can be explained by contemporary climate change scenarios. In contrast to earlier analyses for a ten-year period that indicated consistency between models and observations at the 5% confidence level, we find that the continued warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 -2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level.

http://t.co/Krk8ps5gEW

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I’m tempted to ask for donations to buy this table myself, but Mike would probably be a “no show” once he found out he’d be in the same room with me and five other climate skeptics. via Tom Nelson:

Who’s up for spending $5000 for a “Science & Psychology of Climate Change” event with Michael Mann?

Citizens for Pennsylvania’s Future (PennFuture)

Proceeds from the evening will benefit PennFuture’s environmentally diverse programming, education and community initiatives.

$5,000 sponsor table ($4,100 tax deductible, two available)

Personalized copy of Dr. Mann’s The Hockey Stick and Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front LinesName recognition on all anniversary event materials, including the PennFuture website, and on-site recognition and acknowledgement during the event

Reserved seating for six (6), which includes either Dr. Mann or Dr. Van Susteren as your table host

Private reception with Dr. Mann — McKee Library

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Also from Tom Nelson:

Warmist John Abraham: Super-duper enthusiastic about a particular “armchair scientist with little formal training”, since this one agrees with him

Global warming, Arctic ice loss, and armchair scientists | John Abraham | Environment | theguardian.com

Neven, like many other armchair scientists has little formal training. But, he makes up for that with a doggedness that would impress anyone. While he describes his blog as basically weather reports, many publishing researchers turn to him for a comprehensive view of current conditions. Do you want to know what the short term ice conditions will likely be? Ask Neven. Interested in learning about impacts of current conditions on the atmosphere? Ask Neven.Not only is he a great resource, but the commenters provide insightful thoughts as well.

People like Neven, who can provide clear descriptions to the larger public are doing a great service. This is particularly so because scientists who are employed at major research institutions are often not trained in communication and such activities are not rewarded. I view these complementary activities and viewpoints an exciting development in the larger conversation about climate change.

But I’m evilz with our volunteer surfacestations project and my viewpoints on the world’s most visited climate blog, oh well. Stay tuned on those issues John.

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Bishop Hill notes: NASA rewrites the past

Lord Deben just asked me on Twitter why he should trust me and not official versions of “the science”. I gave him a raft of reasons, but then came across this posting on Unthreaded from Brent Hargreaves:

GISS record of temperature at Teigarhorn, Iceland:

Feb 1901: 0.0C – reported Nov 2011

Feb 1901: -0.9C – reported Mar 2012

Feb 1901: -1.2C – reported Aug 2013

Brent has a full post about what he has found here, but for me his findings seem like a pretty good reason to distrust the official tale.

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Oh darn. Worms are eating methane that could be used for climate alarm: Study finds novel worm community affecting methane release in ocean

Scientists have discovered a super-charged methane seep in the ocean off New Zealand that has created its own unique food web, resulting in much more methane escaping from the ocean floor into the water column. It will not make it into the atmosphere, where it could exacerbate global warming. However, the discovery does highlight scientists’ limited understanding of the global methane cycle — and specifically the biological interactions that create the stability of the ocean system.

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Dr. Roy Spencer is poking ‘the Slayers’ again:

Does a Greenhouse Operate through the Greenhouse Effect?

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42 thoughts on “WUWT Hot sheet for Monday August 12th, 2013

  1. Let’s just say you $5,000 to eat some crappy food and have climate crap shoved down your throat. There is no guarantee that he would acknowlege you. The best you might get is a Filner headlock for your wife.

  2. Toned down version:
    Congress needs to investigate data molestation by GISS, initiated under Hansen, & its unindicted co-conspirators in cooling the old figures since the satellites limit the amount they can warm the present & recent past.

  3. Below is a link to an article in the Spectator. It’s about de-rehabilitating Vikings. In other words, forget the PC vision of them as traders & navigators etc. They really were the bloodthirsty hounds from hell; as was believed 50-60 years ago.
    ” For almost half a century, the academic line on Vikings has been that our old idea of them as raping, pillaging bastards who’d sack a monastery as soon as look at it was a childishly transparent bit of propaganda, perpetuated by Christian monks who were obviously biased against the pagan Northmen. As a recent Cambridge conference put it, ‘Vikings shared technology, swapped ideas and often lived side-by-side in relative harmony with their Anglo-Saxon and Celtic contemporaries.’ So much for the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.”
    Now the CONSENSUS is swinging back to the conclusions of earlier decades; the artefacts coming to the British Museum next year, are hard to square with them as peaceful farmers with an interest in travel.
    What forcibly struck me was that if “Vikings” were substituted by “Climate Change” the article would be doing justice to the simple facts of proper science. Read & see if you agree?
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8989111/sorry-the-vikings-really-were-that-bad/

  4. I read through Dr Spencers link. I am not a scientist, but I was totally impressed to hear him say ‘look Im not sure about this, and I have ignored that, and does anyone else have any ideas’
    This is what real science is about. This is why I became sceptical of the tree ring certitudes. too much certainty there.

  5. @crosspatch
    “Lake Huffington” will be gone soon, it’s going to melt out completely in the Greenland Sea after if passes through the Fram Strait.

  6. The ‘Obama’ tweet followed by the hippie-to-skeptic item raises this question. Obama never was a hippie (although his mother could be considered one). What environmental activism was Obama involved with in his formative youth? (if any?) How deep are his concerns (if any) now?

  7. I wonder what Bo’s carbon footprint is. Oh, let’s don’t forget he exhales CO2 and is flatulent like any other dog. Bring on the methane, and CARBON TAX THAT DOG!! /SARC

  8. Is Hans Von Storch impatient now? No need to wait 5 years my friend, this one is a dead parrot.

    Dr. Hans von Storch – Spiegel – 20 June 2013
    “…the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero….If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models….”

  9. Oh he flew his dog to their vacation. Oh my!!!!!
    That’s as bad as seven trips to Africa blowing five times + as much money!!!!!
    President and Mrs. Bush Discuss Africa Policy, Trip to Africa
    http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/02/20080214.html
    “Tomorrow, President Bush and I leave for what will be my fifth trip to Africa since 2001, and his second trip to Africa since 2001. I’ve seen the determination of the people across Africa — and the compassion of the people of the United States of America.” Laura Bush

  10. How big is the fracking “promise”? I knew it was important. But today I was floored.
    This week I am at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (<a href=http://www.urtec.org/)
    Scott Scheffield of CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources lead off the key note. Part of what he said:
    The Sprayberry-Wolfcamp Play, part of the Permian Basin in West Texas, currently stands at 50 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves and best estimates are that the technically and economically recoverable resources exceed 100 billion barrels. That make s Spraberry-Wolfcamp the second largest oil field in the world behind Ghawar. (guess the oil sands of Athabasca and tar field of Orinocco are in different categories).
    As difficult as it is to believe that this much oil can be found and extracted in the onshore US in the 21st century, try these numbrers:
    A township in the United States is 6×6 miles, 36 square miles (sections). 24 miles in circumference — you can walk around it in a day. Fracking wells are now typically drilled with 4000-5000 foot horizontal lateral sections, 500 feet apart. so that is 10 wells per section, 360 wells per township. Each well will have an ultimate recovery of between 0.5 and 2 million barrels of oil. Run the numbers: even at the low side of the estimate, that is 0.2 billion barrells of oil (economically recoverable) per township 6 miles on a side. The Sprayberry Trend is about 600 townships! That is your 100 billion barrels. The Sprayberry is only one of a couple dozen unconventional plays, albeit probably the largest. But several other plays are already above 10 billion and growing.
    100 billion barrels found in the “minds of men” in the past decade. Ok, once you can accept that thought, there is another thought to cogitate upon: These figures assume about 5% of the oil in place is what is recoverable. 10 years ago, we didn’t know how to get out that 5%. Imagine what we might be able to do tomorrow.
    Here is a picture of the Eagleford activity from space at night:
    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/07/05/eagle-ford-shale-wells-visible-from-space/#13828-2
    and the Bakkan in North Dakota.

  11. Typo in one of the sections: “Van Storch” should be “Von Storch”. Not sure he would appreciate his nationality being changed. 😉

  12. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 12, 2013 at 2:51 pm
    It appears that the genuine “lakes” at the North Pole have increased in size and area. MODIS Terra caught a peek through the clouds yesterday.
    http://tinyurl.com/k9tan67
    Navy HYCOM shows significant areas north of 85 with less than 50 percent concentration.
    http://tinyurl.com/kup954b
    It is my understanding that the measurements of Arctic sea ice cover is that anywhere with greater than 15% ice is classified as 100% ice. Your <50% ice cover (not concentration as you state) is more than 15% or "they" would have specified <15%.
    Can we please compare apples with apples, not meteorites?

  13. @Richard of NZ
    So all those large area of open water near the North Pole don’t exist?
    You seem to be a wee bit out of touch with reality if that is what you are claiming.
    Ice extent is only one measurement, ice is also measured by volume and area.
    “Concentration is a unitless term that describes the relative amount of area covered by ice, compared to some reference area. Thus, concentration describes how much of a 25 kilometer by 25 kilometer (9.65 mile by 9.65 mile) box is covered by sea ice. Ice concentration typically is reported as a percentage (0 to 100 percent ice), a fraction from 0 to 1, or sometimes in tenths (0/10 to 10/10). Our Sea Ice Index products show ice concentration as a percentage. A value of 0 means there is no ice, while a value of 100 means the region is completely covered by ice.”
    http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/data/terminology.html

  14. RE: Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 12, 2013 at 2:51 pm
    Thank you for that great link to the very nice satellite shot, catching a glimpse of the ice between the clouds. However the water you see is not melt-water pools, (an example of which was seen by “North Pole Camera #2” for a while in July.) Rather they are very large “leads,” which are areas of open water between large sections of ice. Initially they are just a crack, and in the winter they swiftly freeze over, but in the summer they can become so numerous that the ice itself shrinks to scattered plates between large areas of water.
    One interesting aspect of “leads” is that they release latent heat through both evaporation and through refreezing. In some cases this heat can prevent complete refreezing, even when ice is refreezing elsewhere. This latent heat adds to the more ordinary summer melting that occurs most summers. It hasn’t occurred this summer.
    That particular quadrant of the arctic shown by your link, (the quadrant between 90 degrees and 180 degrees east, longitude,) has had “leads” all summer. Often the areas of many leads has approached the pole, and I figured there might even be a patch of open water at the pole, (and a great deal of hoop-la about it,) this summer. It hasn’t happened.
    Please compare, if you have the time to do the search, the current Navy map of ice concentration with the map issued back at the end of May. You will see that even in May there were many leads, quite near the pole, and that open water created areas where “concentration” was well under 90%, even when temperatures were well below freezing. The ways last winter’s storms shifted ice about piled up pressure ridges in other areas, but made that quadrant be full of the cracks called leads. In effect, that quadrant had a head start, in terms of melting. If ever there was a year there should have been open water at or near the pole, this year was the year. It hasn’t happened.
    Look again at the satellite picture you gave us. Just above the center, (in the pie-slice between 120 degrees and 150 degrees,) you can see a situation that is more typical for late summer: Large white plates of ice surrounded by wide leads of dark blue, with the leads in some cases so large they could be called “polynyas.” However just to the left, (in the pie-slice between 150 degrees and 180 degrees,) you’ll notice the same plates are utterly surrounded by a sort of slush of very small pieces of ice. It is my assertion that the slush should not be there, according to convention. Between the effects of 24-hour-a-day sunshine, warm water beneath, and the released latant heat of evaporation, that slush should be long gone, especially when you consider the fact winter storms gave that area a head start. But it hasn’t happened.
    Furthermore, consider the fact melting ice uses up available heat, turning it into latent heat. Conversely, forming ice releases heat, warming the area. Judging from the DMI daily temperature maps, that area has been forming ice more than it has been melting ice, and therefore that area has been adding heat to the system rather than sucking it up. Despite this unusual extra heat, rather than that slush vanishing it looks all the world like the slush means business, and is refreezing. The expected melting isn’t happening.
    Lastly consider the fact a sub-970-mb gale just battered that area. Last year a similar gale, located closer to Siberia, pretty much swept the quadrant clear of ice, once you got 400 miles from the pole. I think you are on record as saying the same thing would happen with this year’s gale. Look again at the glimpse Nature gave us between the clouds. It hasn’t happened.
    What is happening instead? I venture the view that we are at “the stand of the tide,” where the decreasing levels of ice give way to rising levels of ice. The next 21 days will show us a lot.
    It is interesting to consider the fact that nearly all we know about the dynamics of sea ice has been developed during a time of diminishing ice. While we know a great deal about the dynamics of diminishing ice, we know far less about the dynamics of increasing ice. There is a chance we are about to observe things, and learn things, that never crossed our minds.

  15. @Caleb
    Those are not leads or polynyas. PAC2013 did a number on the ice and lefty ice in the CAB badly broken up. The ice has also suffered from significant bottom melt and the most recent cyclone of brought up warmer saltier water.
    Navy HYCOM shows large areas near the pole are less than half a meter thick and forecast to melt significantly in the next week.
    Aug 12 http://tinyurl.com/lh7emmy
    Aug 19 http://tinyurl.com/lfs7vek
    The second link indicates that it’s likely that the southern route of the Northwest Passage could be open by the weekend.

  16. From Master of Space and Thyme on ugust 12, 2013 at 2:51 pm:

    Navy HYCOM shows significant areas north of 85 with less than 50 percent concentration.

    Latest Cryosphere Today Concentration Map shows about 90% of whatever-is-left is 60% concentration or higher, about a third is 80% and up.
    August 9, 2013: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20130809.jpg
    Is there a reason for getting into this here rather than the very-fresh Sea Ice News thread?

  17. @kadaka
    It is on topic because Anthony wrote about the “lakes” at the North Pole and by golly there certainly is a lot of open water at the pole. He also wrote about Neven, so my other comments were also on topic.
    By the way, it reached 87 degrees at Kugluktuk NU yesterday, breaking the old record by 8 degrees. Are you still going to attribute that to UHI on the shores of the Arctic like you did for the records set last Friday? It appears the claim that the Arctic has cooled early is not entirely based in reality. It is cold over the pole because of the storm that spinning last Tuesday, but the temperatures have been well above normal in the Beaufort, CAA and ESS.
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=12&mode=9&carte=1

  18. Is anybody else having problems with climatedepot.com?

    Site temporarily unavailable.
    Connection timed out – please try again.

    Thats what i get.

  19. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    Pass the KoolAid, would you? Thread-bombing is thirsty work. (It’s also very loud).

  20. I welcome the efforts of Master of Space and Thyme to highlight what ois going on in the Arctic.
    His interpretation is different to most who post here and so is of value. Don’t scare off alternative views.
    Certainly, his Arctic posts are more stimulating than my opinion that – the Arctic is the last ball in the air for teh catastrophists and they can’t afford to let this drop like the Tropical Hotspot, the rising teperatures, desertification… do you remember when the Sahara was due to overwhelm Spain?
    http://desertification.wordpress.com/2008/09/27/spain-at-risk-of-becoming-like-sahara-google-the-olive-press/

  21. From Master of Space and Thyme on August 12, 2013 at 9:08 pm:

    By the way, it reached 87 degrees at Kugluktuk NU yesterday, breaking the old record by 8 degrees.

    http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/bulkdata_e.html?format=csv&stationID=1641&Year=2013&Month=8&Day=1&timeframe=2&submit=Download+Data
    The Aug 10 high was 29.2°C, which is 84.6°F. Aug 11 was 29.3°C, which is 84.7°F.
    Note both of those are noted with an asterisk, “Data for this day has undergone only preliminary quality checking”.

    Are you still going to attribute that to UHI on the shores of the Arctic like you did for the records set last Friday?

    Were you going to bother to note those measurements are from an airport?
    http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/generate_custom_chart_e.html?StationID=1641&Year=2013&Month=8&Day=11&timeframe=2&MeasTypeID=maxtemp,mintemp,extrmaxtemp,extrmintemp&selSize=medium&selPeriod=month
    Yesterday, Aug 11, did indeed break the high record by about 8 degrees CELSIUS. The temperature record only goes from 1977. But the August 11 record high was broken, because there is an inexplicable 8°C drop in record highs between Aug 10 and Aug 11.
    On the graph I’m looking at right now, the Aug 10 record high is something just under 29.5°C, while Aug 11 has dropped to about 21.5°C. Why is that? I don’t know. But it is amazing, and puts the record in question.
    Oh, BTW, You have lead me to evidence of airport temperature record contamination.
    As seen on the graph, over three days, Aug 2 to Aug 5, the daily maximums zoomed up 19°C, the minimums up 13°C. That corresponds with Civic Holiday, the first Monday in August, which was the 5th, aka the August Long Weekend. When airport traffic due to a holiday would be expected to spike, over a Long Weekend, the measured temperatures at the airport ZOOMED SKYWARDS.
    Increasing airport temperatures correlating with increasing airport traffic does not prove the airport temperature reading are crap, not suitable for climatological records. But it is strong evidence that something is likely amiss, deserving of further investigation.
    Thank you for leading me to this revealing information on the making of (C)AGW-pusher compatible new high temperature records.

  22. @kadaka
    Why are you arguing about weather? Why can’t you least accept the fact that it was hot in parts of the Arctic this week. Don’t you realize that you make this blog look bad when you start to promote you personal alternative reality.

  23. From Master of Space and Thyme on August 13, 2013 at 4:37 am:

    Why can’t you least accept the fact that it was hot in parts of the Arctic this week.

    YOU were making big noises about A RECORD BREAKING HIGH.
    YOU were asking dismissively if I’d also blame it on UHI.
    Now it’s revealed the “record high” was at an Arctic airport, which have problems that cause false high readings, including UHI-type issues. For those and other reasons, your “big noises” are revealed as hollow bloviation.
    So now that you have completely FAILED, you ask:

    Why are you arguing about weather?

    Why are you? Why make an issue of the varying temperatures of Arctic settlements, of fluctuations in sea ice coverage? It’s all just weather.

  24. RE:Master of Space and Thyme
    At last report the temperature at the North Pole Camera was -3.9 Celsius, (25 degrees Fahrenheit.) That is cold enough to refreeze. Then check out today’s DMO arctic temperature map at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather_imagecontainer.php A lot of the area where you expect the polar storm to have stirred up “warm” water is below freezing. All that exposed water is being chilled.
    We shall see what we shall see.

  25. Go with von Storch. He has really laid out the dilemma for the alarmists. Good discussion @ the Bish’s.
    ================

  26. Teen Dream date with gorgeous Dr. Mann — McKee Library
    Fixed, for that this whole circus is starting to resemble.

  27. Just like his hero, the Obamanation, mikey mann specializes in sucking money from wallets of the unwary & clueless.

  28. ***
    Perry says:
    August 12, 2013 at 10:49 pm
    Master of Space and Thyme,
    Why do comment here? It’s not sage.

    ***
    It’s not even parsley or rosemary. 🙂

  29. There are a couple of ways of showing warming when it is actually cooling. Change historic readings to a lower value, exclude readings that are thought to support the warming, relocate stations so they now read higher, & don’t correct high readings that are known to be not representative of reallity. If you do all of the above, it makes it hard to remember which cup the pea is under.

  30. @Master of Space and Thyme
    Neven’s blog has a lot of great resources on it. But they are biased towards melting ice just like this site is biased toward higher ice extent. Neven’s blog’s prediction a month ago was for a new record low ice extent. By a lot too. 3.2 million sq km to be exact for the September NSIDC minimum. This was despite mounting evidence that this season was far different from 2012. It was the lowest prediction for the ARCUS survey. It’s also going to be the most inaccurate when the melt season finishes.
    http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/july
    Like any site, you have to take the good with the bad.

  31. I feel for the Marine that got that pilot duty.
    Why? He/she got to fly a fucking helicopter. Again.

  32. The sentence in bold says that the net present value (NPV) of the damage done by just the methane release alone (ignoring all the other climate change and ocean acidification impacts)could be roughly big as the world economy (measured as GPD).

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