Follow up: the bogus ‘North Pole becomes a lake’ story

Remember this Associated Press before and after image that purportedly showed the North Pole turning into a lake due to “global warming”?

North Pole Lake

This was the day Brad Johnson of “Forecast the Facts” (a political group affiliated with the Center for American Progress and paid to harass TV weathercasters and meteorologists who don’t share their melting world view) made himself look like the complete idiot we know him to be. Observe the propaganda they sent around: 

FTF_arctic_lake

Note that WUWT published on why this imagery has no scientific merit, and the principal scientist issued a statement saying that it wasn’t anything out of the ordinary.

Even AP saw they’d screwed up and issued a retraction:

Title : ELIMINATION North Pole Lake

Caption : EDITORS, PHOTO EDITORS, AND PHOTO LIBRARIANS – PLEASE ELIMINATE AP PHOTO NY109 THAT WAS SENT ON SATURDAY, JULY 27, 2013. THE CAPTION INACCURATELY STATED THAT ‘THE SHALLOW MELTWATER LAKE IS OCCURRING DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM PERIOD.’ IN FACT, THE WATER ACCUMULATES IN THIS WAY EVERY SUMMER. IN ADDITION, THE IMAGES DO NOT NECESSARILY SHOW CONDITIONS AT THE NORTH POLE, BECAUSE THE WEATHER BUOY CARRYING THE CAMERA USED BY THE NORTH POLE ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATORY HAS DRIFTED HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM ITS ORIGINAL POSITION, WHICH WAS A FEW DOZEN MILES FROM THE POLE- This frame grab provided by NOAA shows images from the wide-angle camera trained on a weather buoy maintained by the North Pole Environmental Observatory at the North Pole. The top image is a June 7, 2013 frame grab. The bottom image is a July 25, 2013 frame grab. (AP Photo/NOAA)

Source: http://foto.agerpres.ro/index.php?i=7147048

Will Brad Johnson and “Forecast the Facts” issue a retraction? Doubtful, because to do so would highlight their own stupidity disguised as paid agenda.

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112 thoughts on “Follow up: the bogus ‘North Pole becomes a lake’ story

  1. So it wasn’t unusual, it wasn’t ‘global warming’ and it wasn’t at the North Pole.

    But apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

  2. THE IMAGES DO NOT NECESSARILY SHOW CONDITIONS AT THE NORTH POLE

    What do they mean “does not necessarily show”? It does not. Period. Full stop. The picture was taken hundreds of miles from the North Pole.

  3. What I have read, from non reputable sources I must admit, is that the device that took the picture of the “north pole lake” was some 350 nautical miles from *THE* north pole.

  4. It’s OK. They are aware some of us know they phenomenally screwed up. It’s enough. It’s public and on the record. We can’t ask for more.

    And, btw, AP does not like to issue retractions. This means they will (certainly should) be more careful from now on. It is a small victory.

  5. stuart L says:
    August 10, 2013 at 3:52 am
    It doesn’t matter the damage is done, few people read retractions

    Stuart, that was the point. Sucker punch the public with a falsehood and then walk away unscathed. Tried and true media methodology.

  6. “You can’t make this stuff up!”
    Oh, wait… they did.

    If a retraction is made and no one ever sees it, is it still a retraction?

  7. Even more interesting…. Have you seen it lately? The pictures same camera 2. Is it this one on the sea ice page?

    Funny, 404 on that lake, if that is it. Must be climate changed part 2.

  8. Now I am wondering if that is the actual AP site, and if it is an actual retraction.
    This should be reviewed very careful to avoid egg-on-face syndrome…….

  9. …THE CAPTION INACCURATELY STATED THAT ‘THE SHALLOW MELTWATER LAKE IS OCCURRING DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM PERIOD.’ IN FACT, THE WATER ACCUMULATES IN THIS WAY EVERY SUMMER. IN ADDITION, THE IMAGES DO NOT NECESSARILY SHOW CONDITIONS AT THE NORTH POLE…

    It would be extremely interesting to find out how that erroneous caption got there in the first place….

  10. If the press, including the AP, was actually unbiased, at least one of these climate reporting mistakes over the years should have been erroneously reporting a cooling event. The absence of any such reporting error suggests such misleading reports are intentional.

  11. I agree with Hunter @ 5:01. I have worked in media for 30+ years and have never seen AP do anything like this. Even though the photo is bogus in several ways I encourage caution.

  12. It may be just a spring shoot, but AP issuing a retraction of an alarmist story which was inaccurate, is a significant thing and a sign of that slow tectonic shift now occurring in the MSM. Somebody cut and pasted a press hand-out without really checking it and mebbe they’ll think twice before doing it again.

    Pointman

  13. So we have people wandering around the Arctic breaking up the ice with huge ice breakers, and the result of this
        “butterfly flapping its wings”
    is what?
    How many eco-tourists go tootling up and down the Fram strait, the Northwest passage, the Northeast passage, breaking up the ice jams so they could see everything with what result?

    They might want to think about Dunning-Kruger effect and Glass’s “levels of ignorance” as well as the SMBC “climbing Mt. Stupid” before answering.

  14. Walt Meier used the melt pond as evidence of a warm summer at the North Pole, as I write about here. Our e-mail exchange will be interesting to some.

  15. Why oh why oh why do journalists and politicians and academics keep insisting that the world is going to Hell in a warming climatic handbasket? Given that the empirical data shows everything they’re saying and predicting is pure BS. Other than the trivial rewards of great scientific fame, massive personal fortunes and total power over nearly every aspect of our lives that is.

  16. The globalists who control Thomson-Reuters and AP are throwing CO2AGW and its fairytales under the bus; to preserve the remains of their credibility; hoping to maintain several other lies of vital importance.

  17. Allencic says:
    August 10, 2013 at 6:48 am
    “Why oh why oh why do journalists and politicians and academics keep insisting that the world is going to Hell in a warming climatic handbasket? ”

    A quest for absolute power. None of them has an honest bone in his body.
    Pascal Lamy is on the board of trustees of Thomson-Reuters, replacing Crispin Tickell. Just one example. It is the globalist machine; running on the taxes we pay; and the credit they issue in our name.

  18. Oh yea of little faith. I suspect that the picture was taken close to the north MAGNETIC pole. Just a minor detail, I am sure.

  19. These jump-the-gun alarmist reports need their own WUWT page. I suggest calling it “Stupid Is as Stupid Does” or “Failures in Media.” There are just too many of these howlers not to have their own Hall of Shame.

  20. There will be a significant recovery in the Arctic sea ice this year.

    Here is a nice Zoom-in of the numbers covering day 215 (Aug 3rd) to day 275 (Oct 2nd) with all the key years showing. There is still 44 days to go to the typical lowest extent date of Sept 12 but 2013 is much higher than it has been in recent low years.

    At this time of the year, 1996 had the highest sea ice extent recorded and was the lowest overall melt year which is not that well recognized.

  21. ShrNfr:

    Your entire post at August 10, 2013 at 6:55 am says

    Oh yea of little faith. I suspect that the picture was taken close to the north MAGNETIC pole. Just a minor detail, I am sure.

    You “ASSUME”? You mean you don’t know but you present your excuse anyway?

    And the magnetic North Pole is moving at a rate of about 40 miles per year so if the camera were initially situated at the magnetic pole it would not be “near” it now.

    Your presentation of an unsubstantiated excuse is NOT “just a minor detail”.

    Richard

  22. They must have CO2 as the devil incarnate or their push for power falls apart. Does anyone else notice that more and more the phrase “ocean acidification” is becoming a larger and larger part of their argument. Of course, anyone who’s taken high school chemistry and has even heard of pH knows the acidification is pure scientific nonsense. But it’s also true that anyone who’s had high school physics and maybe a geography course with a bit of weather and climate knows that AGW is crap too. But as I said before, fame, fortune and most importantly, massive power and control is the goal, not saving the planet.

  23. The cyclone centered over the north pole appears to have opened up some very large areas of open water very close to the north pole.

    http://tinyurl.com/moqzvpm

    The University of Bremen’s concentration map is showing a huge drop in concentration north of 80 degrees.

    http://tinyurl.com/m7ch6tb

    The most recent ECMWF run is forecasting the storm to be below 850mb for another 48 hours and the anomalously warm temperature over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS to continue for at least another 72 hours.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013081000/ECH100-72.GIF?10-12

    Things are becoming very interesting!

  24. Richard111, Thanks for the video of the Russian icebreaker reaching the pole on July 31. I like to use my lying eyes, rather than trusting media, and that film shows how thick and un-slushy the ice is, up there this year. All the fracturing is due to winds and not warming, (and also due to the icebreaker.) Usually it is slushier up there in July, as usually average temperatures are a bit just above freezing for weeks (because the sun never sets) starting in late May and ending at the start of September.

    I like to sit back and use my lying eyes via the so-called North Pole Camera, and have done so for years. Therefore, even before the media uproar, I happened to know all about “Lake North Pole,” and was saying it was a melt-water pool that would drain away, and the fact it hadn’t drained away might show the ice was thicker than usual. That put me one step ahead when all the media hype started. http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/07/24/north-pole-ice-melt-watching-the-summer-thaw/

    I decided to alert a fellow who seemed nice enough, but also seemed naive, who was sensationalizing “Lake North Pole” at a site called “Mother Nature Network.” This involved registering at the site and filling out a form that won me some sort of silly points for “green” behavior, but at last I could comment. Then I wrote a polite note warning the melt-water was likely to drain away in a rush, but it wasn’t printed. There was no explanation, nor was there any mention, (as would happen here,) that I had commented but was “snipped.” So I wrote an even more polite note, after the water drained away, explaining the dynamics of the draining, and that too was never printed either.

    My philosophy is that, while my comments might not have reached the “Mother Nature Network” readers, they did reach the eyes of the guy who snipped them. He knows what he has done. Furthermore, so do you who read this, and also so do those who read my post. While my blog is comfortably obscure, with perhaps 20 views most days, hundreds visited during that “Lake North Pole” episode. While a majority came from here or Goddard’s site, I was somewhat surprised to see a fair amount of visitors from the Huffington Post and then, to my complete amazement, even visitors who started coming from Deltoid. So they too know the guy at “Mother Nature Network” snipped me.

    I like to think even people who try to justify censoring certain views, and who knowingly take steps to keep open and honest (and hopefully polite) debate from occurring, can be touched by a thing called “shame.” Maybe they can steal cookies from the cookie jar without twinges of conscience if no one sees them, but when photographed doing so and caught red-handed, they haven’t completely lost the capacity to blush.

    Some are too invested in the censorship to change. (Naming no names, one mann springs to mind.) However hopefully the young, idealistic and naive can and will change. Being wrong and blushing about mistakes is an important part of learning. If being idealistic and naive was a crime I would have received serious jail-time by now; (around 329 life-sentences, if the judge was kind.)

    The thing that best awakes a dormant conscience is to be caught red-handed. I think that is a huge service Watts Up With That provides, simply by pointing out the truth, over and over and over again. When the silence seems deafening, and all you hear is the chirping of crickets, remember Jiminy Cricket was Pinocchio’s conscience. And when it comes to Climate Science, a whole lot of noses are getting pretty darn long.

  25. @Richard111
    The video of the Russian icebreaker at the North Pole was uploaded in 2009, so unless the person who uploaded that video has mastered time travel , that video is certainly not from July 2013.

  26. RE: Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 8:08 am

    Thanks for pointing that out, before I once again made an ass of myself. (I was about to post a link to that video, stating it was from 2013.)

    Yet it proves my point: It takes a certain amount of blushing to learn.

    However that icebreaker did visit the pole, back on July 31 this year. Anyone know of any video? (I suspect they make some money bringing tourists up there, and tourists have cameras.)

  27. RE: Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 7:42 am

    “….Things are becoming very interesting!”

    I agree. Who would think watching ice melt could be so engrossing!

    DMI still shows temperatures below freezing north of 80 degrees. While the polar low looks weaker some sort of secondary is stronger on Siberian coast. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php

    “Northpole camera” lens snow-covered. Your ECMWF model run shows the camera to get hit by some bitter cold, as arctic rowers get a break and above normal temperatures.

  28. @Caleb
    There was a dramatic rescue during the first week of June by the Russian icebreaker Yamal which sailed very close to the pole to evacuate scientists whose research station was on an ice flow that crumble . The trip took half the time they had forecast because of the ice being badly fractured by PAC2013. Here are a couple links to the story, the first one is in German so you’ll have to use Google translate.

    http://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Atomeisbrecher-rettet-Forscher-article10813126.html

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/yamal-to-the-rescue.html

  29. To Arfur Bryant

    Thanks for your posting about Sierra Club Canada (http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease). I went to the URL and found no place to post a comment. I wanted to ask if PhDs in climatology were now coming as prizes in Cracker Jack packages.
    The present voice of Sierra Club Canada told us at a talk that he got his start selling Save the Whales buttons and was taken under the wing of Elizabeth May (of Green Party fame). He gave a talk on global warming several years ago in my home town (Saint John, NB). I went and threw as much contradiction at him as allowed by the moderator. It obviously had no effect on him- I wonder if any of the true believers in the audience took any note.

    IanM

  30. @Caleb

    The DMI is using data from the ECMWF, which produced the maps I have posted here. It is the exact same forecast and it will not be weakening for a couple more days.

    From your link at DMI
    “Surface Pressure and 2 meter air temperature over sea ice and ocean, North of 60°N.
    Data are based on analysis data from the global operational weather forecasting model at ECMWFs.”

    Here is a link to the ECM site, it is very user friendly and allows you to do ten day model runs for multiple parameters.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

  31. Steven Goddard has a nice summary for the Arctic and other calamatological canaries.

    400 PPM CO2 Update!
    Posted on August 10, 2013 by stevengoddard
    Coldest summer on record at the North Pole
    • Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006
    • Record high August Antarctic ice extent
    • No major hurricane strikes for eight years
    • Slowest tornado season on record
    • No global warming for 17 years
    • Second slowest fire season on record
    • Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/08/10/400-ppm-co2-update/

    It does make you wonder what all the global warming fuss and predictions are all about.

  32. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 7:42 am
    “The University of Bremen’s concentration map is showing a huge drop in concentration north of 80 degrees.

    http://tinyurl.com/m7ch6tb


    So I take it that you are in Bremen and have an account; because everybody else has no access.
    Are you working at an alarmist institute?

  33. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 9:03 am
    “Here is a link to the ECM site, it is very user friendly and allows you to do ten day model runs for multiple parameters. ”

    How sweet! Alarmists allow simple proles now to model their own personal preferred future by choosing their own parameters? Great!

  34. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 9:03 am
    “Here is a link to the ECM site, it is very user friendly and allows you to do ten day model runs for multiple parameters. ”

    And guess what I got as a web ad there? The web ad at the bottom of the page was personalized to my own interests (as I could easily tell; I orchestrate myself what ads are shown to me by searching for the right terms on google); the one on the left was obviously targeted at the typical demographic using that site… and it was

    “Politikberatung
    http://www.advicepartners.de
    Interessensvertretung, Lobbying, Public Affairs, Issue Management”

    or in English – “Politicy advice (URL) – interest representation, Lobbying, …”

    Yeah I thought so; that’s 90% of the work of an alarmist.

  35. @Caleb 7:54 am

    Thanks for the blog on the “Lake North Pole” web cam.
    The facts I was looking for were there:
    July 10: The lake-lead first appeard in the distance.
    July 16: lake fingers approached the bouy.
    July 20: the web cam bouy was nearly surrounded by a melt water puddle.
    July 26: bouy in water extending far away, but not deep enough to float.
    July 28: the lake drained away between July 27 and July 28.
    July 28: ice very glossy, residual water from lake froze as the lake drained.

    BTW, where did you get the picture of that “fallen tree wood rack”
    Google Images gives up http://www.alastairheseltine.com/index.htm, but I have no idea he was the creator.

  36. Those ponds aren’t even melt in many cases, they are often accumulated rain. Rainwater ponds create bodies that eventually freeze solid in winter creating ice that is harder to melt the following summer as it has no salt content at all.

  37. @DirkH
    Sorry about the link to the University of Bremen concentration map, here is a direct link to the Bremen site.

    What is you point regarding ECM allowing individuals to have free access to their models?

    Rather than attack the messenger, why not address the actual information posted like a real sceptic would. You are exposing yourself to be a bitter cynic rather than a true sceptic.

  38. hunter says:
    August 10, 2013 at 4:55 am

    Just another typical AGW claim: hyped, deceptive and untrue.

    It’s not about truth. It’s about getting the headlines. That’s what most folks at home will see. The correction? Very few. The facts? Very few. Thank you Al Oil Check Gorzeera for inventing the Internets thingy. :)

  39. @DirkH
    Since the DMI states that their forecasts are based based on analysis data from the global operational weather forecasting model at ECMWF, are they now suspect too?

    Don’t you realize how silly you look with you conspiracy ideation?

  40. Master of Space and Thyme:

    In your reply to DirkH at August 10, 2013 at 9:42 am

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/10/follow-up-the-bogus-north-pole-becomes-a-lake-story/#comment-1386315

    you ask and say

    What is you point regarding ECM allowing individuals to have free access to their models?

    Rather than attack the messenger, why not address the actual information posted like a real sceptic would. You are exposing yourself to be a bitter cynic rather than a true sceptic.

    Say what!?
    DirkH had asked at August 10, 2013 at 9:17 am

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/10/follow-up-the-bogus-north-pole-becomes-a-lake-story/#comment-1386292

    Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 7:42 am

    The University of Bremen’s concentration map is showing a huge drop in concentration north of 80 degrees.
    http://tinyurl.com/m7ch6tb

    So I take it that you are in Bremen and have an account; because everybody else has no access.
    Are you working at an alarmist institute?

    DirkH asked if you are associated with an alarmist Institution and he explained the reason for his question; viz. you are posting anonymously and citing information from the alarmist institution when the information is only easily obtainable by associates of that Institution. Such an association is pertinent information concerning your possible undeclared conflict of interest.

    So, the question from DirkH is NOT an “attack” and your refusal to answer it – together with an unfounded insult of DirkH – implies that you have the undeclared personal interest of “working at an alarmist institute”.

    Richard

  41. Put climate in your own backyard, where the data are less likely to have been “adjusted” to fit the hypothesis.

    I live in the part of Oregon with the greatest temperature extremes, its NE. The highest temperature ever recorded in the state was 119 F, at Pendleton on this date in 1898 (forecast calls for 92 today). The lowest was -54 F set at Seneca on Feb 10 in 1933. The next day it was almost 100 degrees warmer there, at 45 F. You want extreme WX, we’ve got it, but not so much lately.

    However some low records were set in Oregon recently. For instance, Portland recorded a new low for Feb 26 in 2011, when the temperature dipped to 18 degrees. The previous record low for that date was 20 degrees, set in 1962.

    I recall the late ’60s as remarkably cold, especially December 1968, when WA state sets its record low.

    But we did not participate in the putative global warming of the ’80s & ’90s. Southern Oregon record highs were set in the extreme WX heat wave of 1946, as in 115 F at Medford & 103 F Burns. Salem’s high was 108 F in 1941, late in the US-wide Interwar, Depression Era or Dustbowl Climatic Maximum of the 20th Century. Records at Astoria (100) & Portland (107) were set in 1961 & 1965, respectively. (In between those years the extreme WX event of the Columbus Day 1962 storm happened.) Among major cities, only Eugene recorded a high during the alleged global warming period, in 1981. But it had undergone great development in prior decades.

    To see globally, look locally, IMO.

  42. @richardscourtney

    I am confused, are you implying that the University of Bremen is an alarmist institution?

    Anway, I can post a concentration map from the United States Navy that shows similar decline in concentration. It’s unlikely that they are “alarmists”

  43. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 10:33 am

    Few are the universities anywhere in the world that are not alarmist institutions, except perhaps some in China & Russia. Follow the funding.

    In this corrupted age, “science” is for sale.

  44. Master of space and thyme says: Anway, I can post a concentration map from the United States Navy that shows similar decline in concentration. It’s unlikely that they are “alarmists”

    Well you would be wrong about the alarmists idea. The admiral in charge of the weather part of the USNavy is an alarmist.

  45. [snip - enough of that talk - mod]
    [ Waaay off topic - threadjacking - permanent moderation status now - Anthony]

  46. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 9:53 am
    …..
    Don’t you realize how silly you look with you conspiracy ideation?
    =====================
    Conspiracy ideation. ……… hmmmmmmm, now where have I heard that before?

    /rolling eyes emoticon.

  47. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 7:42 am
    . . .
    The most recent ECMWF run is forecasting the storm to be below 850mb for another 48 hours and the anomalously warm temperature over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS to continue for at least another 72 hours.
    === === === ===
    850 mb – not at sea level, surely!?

    I don’t think even 900 mb has been measured, even in the biggest cyclones/hurricanes.
    Surface pressure – fine – in the hills, or mountains.

    But – interesting times? Yes, I fear so. How the UK will cope if we get three or four more winters like 2012-3, having closed coal-fired power stations [CO2, you see], and started to rely on wind . . . .?

    OT – but – oh! how delightful to see the criminal Huhne [formerly an MEP and UK Minister, imprisoned for eight months for perjury] is to be paid $150,000 annually for a two-day-a-week job with Zilkha Biomass energy. Well, it got their name in the UK Press!

    Auto

  48. Several days ago, I noticed an effort to explain this photo snafu at msnbc. Their take was that the water had now ‘drained’ through cracks in the ice. That does not make sense to me. How would fresh melt water drain into the heavier sea water that underlies the ice? It looks to me like the ‘lake’ water simply refroze.

  49. Most people on this side of the aisle will not get this because we really have a hard time understanding how divisive the other side is. But we are not part of their group. What we say, show or do is irreverent.

    Just look at your home Anthony vs Al Gore’s home which Al gore is the messenger or for some the prophet. We are not doing what we do for their version of the greater good.

    In order to be recognized you must adhere to their beliefs otherwise we are second class citizens. They have already done this in terms of using the laws to their advantage. Sooner or later they will issue rules to this effect such as the SAME like minded people did with blacks being 3/5′s of a person.

    What we say or do makes no difference to people like Brad Johnson or USA today:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/25/newser-north-pole-lake/2586469/

    Note the bottom story at USAtoday:
    “The CIA is studying how to control the world’s climate.”

    *rolls eyes* this is what has become of the main stream news.

  50. @goldminor

    Here are before and after pics.
    Based on far up the water is up the buoy in the first photo, it appears likely the water drained. It didn’t necessarily have to go down, it could have drained off the side of the flow
    July 25 (check out the rainbow)

    July 29

  51. The Arctic ice extent has shrunk over the time of measurement. But that is less than half a century.
    It means nothing in terms of the age of the earth. There is no climate knowledge of significance hin this story.

    The points of note here are related to the political spin:

    1) The Arctic is the last canary still dying in the mine. The tropical hot-spot, desertification, Kilimanjaro’s ice, the Himalayan ice… even the rising temperatures that started this panic. They have all turned against alarmism. So any extrapolation from the Arctic to the rest of the world needs also to address the other cherries that are conveniently unpicked. That they aren’t addressed is a clear sign of (at best) small-mindedness.

    2) The photo was misplaced by a hundred miles or more. Thus the news story is withdrawn. But more important is the editorial failing that led to the failed check in the first place. Any story reported by these journalists must be assumed to be unchecked. Environmental journalists the world over have failed in their first duty. Ignore them.

    3) As the article says, not everyone has retracted their misleading editorials. Those who haven’t aren’t wrong in accidental error. They are wrong deliberately. They wish to mislead their readers. They hold their readers in contempt. That is worth knowing.

  52. @Lars P

    Here’s a link to an archived copy of a Life Magazine article written by Commander James Calvert about his subs surfacing at the pole in 1959. He estimated that the ice around the polynya he surfaced at was 40 feet thick.

    http://tinyurl.com/Skate90DegNorth

  53. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 12:50 pm
    He estimated that the ice around the polynya he surfaced at was 40 feet thick.

    The text reads:
    “In August the Arctic was at its bland best,…, Cruising under the 10 foot thick pack we repeatedly have found open water where we could surface”
    When he talks about March he says again on second page:
    “…. surface sealed of by a hard curtain 10 feet thick…”
    In the photo that you uploaded above one can see behind pressure ridges that can raise higher

    This is exactly what is mentioned when there is a photo with a higher ridge.
    So why are you delusional?

  54. “”Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 8:08 am

    @Richard111
    The video of the Russian icebreaker at the North Pole was uploaded in 2009, so unless the person who uploaded that video has mastered time travel , that video is certainly not from July 2013.””

    Thanks for pointing that out. I aquired that link at the same time as this
    link which records the ships daily position. Scroll down the page and check
    July 31 entry. The ice breaker was there even if the video is for the wrong year.
    Unless this link is faulty as well.

    http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UGYU

    @Caleb says: August 10, 2013 at 8:20 am

  55. @Lars P

    You seem to have missed this quote from Commander …..

    “It marked a stark contrast to the enveloping pack whose pressure ridges rimming the polynya extended as much as 40 feet BENEATH THE SURFACE”

  56. .“It marked a stark contrast to the enveloping pack whose pressure ridges rimming the polynya extended as much as 40 feet BENEATH THE SURFACE”

    Forgive me for interrupting but does this mean that ice is formed (or accumulates) in a wave formation?

    40ft at the peak and less at the nadir of the ice formation.
    It makes sense. there are lateral forces (wind and wave) that push ice together and vertical forces (gravity and buoyancy) that would smooth the amplitude.

    In which case you may be talking at cross-purposes and may both be right?

  57. Richard111 says:
    August 10, 2013 at 5:11 am
    I think this is the site with the wonky camera.

    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcams1and2.html

    That “wonky” camera got turned over on its side a few days ago, and then the lens froze over, the heating presumably failed. If you look at the last picture before it was turned over you can guess what happened. There are Polar Bear tracks right in front of the camera.

  58. Forgive me for interrupting but does this mean that ice is formed (or accumulates) in a wave formation?

    Certainly not. Pressure ridges form when wind and/or current compress the pack. This is completely normal and the size of a pressure ridge has little relation to the thickness of the surrounding ice. It even happens on reasonably large lakes. A pressure ridge floats like all sea ica and since the ice is only slightly less dense than the water a pressure ridge 40 feet deep would only rise something like 5 feet above the surrounding ice. I’ve seen bigger ones in the Baltic.
    Pressure ridges are a great problem to icebreakers, since they can be impenetrable even to large icebreakers.
    There is an even worse variety “stampisvall” (I’m not sure there is an English word). This is a ridge of finely divided ice and sludge that has become compacted by wind and waves against e. g. the edge of the fast ice. It can go down for tens of meters but does not stick up at all, and can also
    be quite impenetrable.
    The Master of Space and Thyme either has not the slightest idea about how sea ice works or is deliberately obfuscating.

  59. tty; To be honest, I also have not the slightest idea about how sea ice works either… but please believe I am not deliberately obfuscating.

    It just seemed to me that if ridges form – then 40ft pack ice could be adjacent to ice that is only just thick enough to avoid shearing.
    From the text I read, the reference to 40ft was a reference to maximum height of ice (top to bottom) not height above surface or mean height of ice.

    There seemed to be the possibility that you could both be talking about the same ice formation but looking at different parts of the sinusoidal-shape ridge.

    But if I was wrong then, again please “Forgive me for interrupting”.
    What I know on this I have learnt here. I just hoped to move your debate beyond mere disagreement.

  60. No, not really a “wave” as you are probably thinking.
    Rather, “normal” sea ice “normally” just freezes up exactly as you would expect: First year sea ice is about 1 meter thick, 90% of it is under the water, 10% visible above the water. It is more-or-less flat. 2nd year sea ice is a little thicker: still 90% below “waterline” and 10% above the waterline.

    But, after it freezes, it is a solid (obviously!) as so it can get blown over, tipped over, or crashed by the storms and wind into piles and “cracked together” masses of ice. If two long plates crash together, the resulting ridge (just like mountains are created when two continental plates are pushed together by tectonic forces) both pushed up into 50 -60 ft high visible ridges, and also and below into (invisibly) deep ridges just as deep. But, because these ridges are compressed together – the ice right at the ridge should be considered independently floating anymore: Rather the whole wide combined area of the two plates helps to “float” the thin ridge squished between the flat areas, and so the ridge isn’t statically “buoyant” with 90% below/10% above. (An iceberg, of course, IS independently floating, and so it will have 90% below/10% above all of the time. Still, after melting irregularly, you can find online movies of icebergs “rolling” over as they get top-heavy.)

    The sub’s under-ice sonar looks “vertically” up from the conning tower to track those deep ridges and the flat spaces between them. Hopefully, the flat spot will be less than 1 meter thick ice, and can be broken through by the conning tower’s upper plates without causing damage. 2 meters? Rather more iffy about whether or not damage will occur.

  61. RACookPE1978 says August 10, 2013 at 2:29 pm…
    Thank you for the detail. I kind of wish I had never tried to play bridge-builder in ignorance now. Insert your own joke, privately, if you wish.

    But, although I knew (know?) nothing of sea-ice formation or structure, re-reading the comments above doesn’t lead to conflict.

    The historical source could be interpreted to refer to both tty and Master-Space-Time’s viewpoint.
    The historical source (the sub commander) is vague enough to not be definitive.

    Perhaps I am too sceptical. Good bye from me to this this thread (I am not helping the debate).

  62. RACookPE1978

    Sorry, but you don’t know what you are talking about. The ice in a pressure ridge is floating like any other sea ice. When two ice fields get crushed together the forces are horizontal. Just how do you think they get turned through 90 degrees to float your pressure ridge?

  63. stewgreen says:
    August 10, 2013 at 3:36 pm

    Hilarious!

    Nincompoops still don’t know it was a hoax.

  64. tty says:
    August 10, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    As you know, much of English ice, glacial & Arctic feature vocabulary consists of loan words from other languages. I’ve seen “stampisvall” translated as “dike” to distinguish it from “normal” pressure ridges, but this doesn’t really do the phenomenon justice, IMO.

    Wiki has a perhaps surprisingly good tutorial on sea ice, for anyone wanting to learn more, or start to learn:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_ice

    The NSIDC site has this on its formation.

    http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/formation.html

    Speaking of linguistic loans, “frazil” is a Quebecois word, from French “fraisil”, which means coal cinders.

  65. ” tty says:
    August 10, 2013 at 1:48 pm

    Richard111 says:
    August 10, 2013 at 5:11 am
    I think this is the site with the wonky camera.

    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcams1and2.html

    That “wonky” camera got turned over on its side a few days ago, and then the lens froze over, the heating presumably failed. If you look at the last picture before it was turned over you can guess what happened. There are Polar Bear tracks right in front of the camera.”

    It appears polar bears don’t like paparazzi either. That or Sean Penn was up north.

    P.S. Still diggin’ the preview button.

  66. Lars P. says:
    August 10, 2013 at 11:26 am

    this one in March!

    This is a rather controversial photo, it may be from August 1958.

    See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/17/submarines-in-the-winter-twilight/ for part of the discussion/controversy about it.

    The site http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm seems to be the clearing house for the Skate’s photos, it has a photo that it attributes to 17 March 1959, I didn’t know about that photo (or at least, that date), when I wrote the post. See http://navsource.org/archives/08/575/0857824.jpg . I’m not entirely convinced things have settled, see this account and photo from the actual ceremony to scatter “the mortal remains of the legendary Australian explorer Sir George Hubert Wilkins.” http://www.vintagehikingdepot.com/tag/uss-skate/ – note the sub is much lower in the water/ice. It may be that it surfaced elsewhere too or got more aggressive after the storm (read account) wound down, as the former photo shows milder and lighter conditions.

  67. Oh – another thing see my just posted comment. http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm has the same photo twice (once in color, once in B&W) The first has the description “Three crew-members of the Skate (SSN-578) checking the ice on deck while above the Arctic Circle in 1959,” the second says “On 17 March 1959, Skate (SSN-578) surfaced at the North Pole to commit the ashes of the famed explorer Sir Hubert Wilkins to the Arctic waste.” I suppose that description doesn’t explicitly say it was from the surfacing for the ceremony….

    I suspect a lot of the problem may be from dodgy record keeping and not keeping track of the various surfacings and dates during a long deployment. When I was a photographer for the college newspaper I often wrote on paper or blackboard the date and subject, then took a photo of that before (or after- better late than never) of various shoots. I’m sure the photographer, Jack Treutle, never thought they’d be part of a future climate debate.

  68. “Forecast the Facts is dedicated to ensuring that Americans hear the truth about climate change: that temperatures are increasing, human activity is largely responsible, and that our world is already experiencing the effects. We do this by empowering everyday people to speak out in the face of misinformation and hold accountable those who mislead the public.”
    ———–
    Talk about the knife that cuts both ways.

  69. I am a ‘non expert’ observer with limited info, however it seems clearer to me daily that these people are not idiots or morons. Rather, they are evil.

    I think it’s time to drop the stupid and complete idiot labels, and call them what they are. Driven by personal reputation, political agenda and threats from the ‘establishment’ they distort and suppress the truth, and coerce and threaten dissenters.

    Let me add another truth. The largest part of the blame lies at the feet of Charles Darwin. As we are merely advanced animals, this behavior is the natural end of Godless Darwinism and their is no basis to call it wrong. In fact it is the survival of the fittest, the strong crush the weak and there is nothing unnatural about it. I however am certain that lying is wrong and evil. It is one thing to switch from ‘global warming’ to ‘climate change’ to ‘weird weather’. It is another to fabricate ‘proof’.

  70. Interestingly enough here is an article about the first round trip from Murmansk in 1977 by a Russian ice breaker. It took 13 days with a 15 hour layover at the pole.

    The latest rescue was not much faster….

    http://books.google.com/books?id=tkGDkpkQh-sC&pg=PA327&lpg=PA327&dq=arktika+trip+to+the+north+pole&source=bl&ots=fuK5qVummJ&sig=0CPLYkd88NDbXVyHyufvEQTR-6E&hl=en&sa=X&ei=im67Uc7pO-G8yAGCyoGgDg&ved=0CF4Q6AEwBA#v=onepage&q=arktika%20trip%20to%20the%20north%20pole&f=false

  71. Most Arctic ice maps underreport the ice — the microwave satellites miss a lot. The most reliable Arctic ice maps are the ones made for boaties, because safety is paramount. Those ice charts do not miss the ice! However, those charts are strangely missing from most compilations, maybe because the user has to click a box to get them. Here are three rarely-seen ice charts which are the best:
    (1) USA National Ice Center:

    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ps/ProductViewer/ProductViewer_Low.htm

    These guys do not miss any ice!
    (2) Russian State Research Center — Arctic and Antarctic: http://www.aari.ru/main.php?lg=1
    Click on “Operational data” at left, then “Arctic Ocean ice charts”. You will then see a dead-cert accurate ice map of the Siberian waters. Weekly chart only, though, but that’s good enough.
    (3) Anchorage Forecast Office Ice Desk: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php?img=ice
    Bering Sea & Chukchi Sea & Beaufort Sea ice in the greatest detail. No missing the ice here.

  72. Oh, on (1) above, USA National Ice Center, make sure the box at upper left corner says “Arctic Daily”, otherwise you’ll need to select it.

  73. “milodonharlani says:
    August 10, 2013 at 4:59 pm
    Literal translation perhaps “jammed ice wall”?”

    Not quite, “vall” translates more like ‘bank’ or ‘mound’. Dike isn’t bad at all since like a dike a “stampisvall” goes down but not up. “jammed ice dike” more or less describes it.

  74. It got down to 26.2 at the “North Pole Camera” yesterday. Hard to watch ice melt when the darn stuff won’t thaw. However the big storm towards the pole is finally shoving the ice down towards Fram Strait. It ought pass 84 degrees latitude today, at long last. Hopefully it will melt before it gets to Bermuda, but I’m not all that sure that will happen. It’s downright chilly, for August, here in New Hampshire.

    (I’m suppose to be taking time off camping, but had to zip home to tend to goats, and I find I have to also check WUWT to see if there’s any news from the north pole.)

  75. Ric Werme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 6:31 pm
    This is a rather controversial photo, it may be from August 1958.
    I see, thanks!

  76. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 1:31 pm
    August 10, 2013 at 1:31 pm
    You seem to have missed this quote from Commander …..
    “It marked a stark contrast to the enveloping pack whose pressure ridges rimming the polynya extended as much as 40 feet BENEATH THE SURFACE”

    No I haven’t missed it. However you seem to be a bit confused about what a pressure ridge is.

    Here is a description of a pressure ridge:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pressure_ridge_%28ice%29_Formation_Drawing.svg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_%28ice%29

    and here at the surface:

    You will see these are similar to the one in your photo – seen from above not under the water.
    Now you may also know that ice is almost same density as water, 9/10 of the ice lies under the water. To have 2 meters above the water it should be the equivalent of 18 meters below.
    You seem to have missed this quote from Commander …..
    “It marked a stark contrast to the enveloping pack whose pressure ridges rimming the polynya extended as much as 40 feet BENEATH THE SURFACE”

    No I haven’t missed it. However you seem to be confused about what “pressure ridge” is. tty explained also above:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/10/follow-up-the-bogus-north-pole-becomes-a-lake-story/#comment-1386522

    Here is a description of a pressure ridge:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pressure_ridge_%28ice%29_Formation_Drawing.svg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_%28ice%29

    and here at the surface:

    You will see these are similar to the one in your photo – seen from above not under the water.
    Now you may also know that ice is almost same density as water, 9/10 of the ice lies under the water. To have 2 meters above the water it should be the equivalent of 18 meters below.

  77. It appears that the genuine “lakes” at the North Pole have increased in size and area. MODIS Terra caught a peek through the clouds this morning.

    http://tinyurl.com/k9tan67

    Navy HYCOM shows significant areas north of 85 with 50 percent concentration.

    http://tinyurl.com/n4qmcb6

    This melt seasons third cyclone is winding down but significant positive temperature anomalies
    over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS are forecast to last for a few more days.

    http://tinyurl.com/m5eok6d

    The extremely warm air blowing over the Beaufort and ESS has caused significant flash melt in the five days this cyclone has been spinning at the North Pole.

    http://tinyurl.com/kl974ay

    http://tinyurl.com/6666bx

  78. Hit and run science reporting is going to really have to gear up from this point on as the AMO is in serious (obvious) cyclical decline now, and joins PDO temp cycle, South Atlantic sea temps, and solar cycle. Try reporting on single melt drops if you can find any as these macro cycles join to erase prior warming cycles.

  79. goldminor says:
    August 10, 2013 at 11:45 am
    Several days ago, I noticed an effort to explain this photo snafu at msnbc. Their take was that the water had now ‘drained’ through cracks in the ice. That does not make sense to me. How would fresh melt water drain into the heavier sea water that underlies the ice? It looks to me like the ‘lake’ water simply refroze.

    Not possible, at the maximum of the melt pond the stake in the foreground of the picture was completely immersed in water. A day later all the water was gone and the stake was now ~0.75m above the ice, clearly the melt water had drained away.

  80. Ian L. McQueen says:
    August 10, 2013 at 8:53 am

    Hi Ian,

    Nope, I couldn’t find a way to post either (without joining, and I just couldn’t bring myself to do that!).

    A shambles.

    Regards,

    Arfur

  81. Well, one of the two pole cams fell over a while back (a blizzard gust got to it?). It is now completely buried in a drift. The other camera, the one that shows the massive instrument station and snow depth stakes is still in good order. It depicts ongoing accumulation and drifting. Only the tallest two stakes are still visible. Maybe the whole set up will get buried soon.

  82. Re:Ian George says:
    August 10, 2013 at 4:43 am
    Watched the video – wonder how many doom and gloomers did? The surface melt was present for a very small proportion of the total video. However, now that the story is out about the “major North Pole melt” this will be used over and over again to “prove” whatever climate process is occurring this week. Anybody see a retraction is any local papers that carried the lake pictures? I didn’t. Only by my regular reading of WUWT have I learned that AP acknowledges they were mistaken. As most media outlets are in the CAGW camp, this retraction will be put aside “due to lack of space”. But thanks Anthony once again.

  83. Master of Space and Thyme says:
    August 10, 2013 at 12:14 pm


    July 29

    Those pressure ridges in the distance indicate very substantial ice thickness.

  84. @Piper Paul (11:18PM, 8/10), LAUGH-OUT-LOUD, I thought, essentially (you were much more creative) the same thing. “Are those their real names? Naaaa.” Thanks for sharing the funny Monty Python video. #[:)]

  85. James At 48 says:
    August 12, 2013 at 11:51 am
    Well, one of the two pole cams fell over a while back (a blizzard gust got to it?).

    Actually a polar bear got to it!

    It is now completely buried in a drift. The other camera, the one that shows the massive instrument station and snow depth stakes is still in good order. It depicts ongoing accumulation and drifting. Only the tallest two stakes are still visible. Maybe the whole set up will get buried soon.

    The three missing stakes fell down early on Aug 10th, the snow fall/drift only amounts to a couple of inches.

    Six hours before:

    Rather than be buried, soon it will be floating in the ocean (or recovered by PSC).

  86. This was copied from a 1998 eye-witness report on Curry’s SHEBA ice mission – where they spent about a year actually locked-in within the ice pack, drifting along with through the high Arctic.

    Notice the extreme effect of very localized water vapor influence through open leads, and – more importantly and germainly to this discussion/argument about open water “lakes” on top of the Arctic Ice – notice how the leads and polynnas around her icebreaker kept forming and re-freezing. Also, see the influence on albedo: reflection from above the cloud cover was more important than the dark – BUT REFROZEN!!! – ice below the clouds.

    4. Meteorological conditions
    Between 7 and 9 May 1998 (Julian Day 127-129) a persistent low-stratus deck, capped by a strong thermal inversion, was present at the SHEBA ice camp. According to the visible light image made by the NOAA satellite (Fig. 1) there are extended white areas
    intersected by black lines, which are refrozen cracks in the sea ice. These cracks frequently open and cause a strong surface flux of heat and moisture, since the temperature of the open water is just slightly below 0°C [Pinto et al., 1995].

    Early in the month of May, two leads opened in the vicinity of the measurement site, several hundreds meters wide. These leads froze and reopened intermittently during the month, but during the latter half of the month virtually no open water could be seen in the vicinity of the experimental site. To the northwest of the ice station, the cracks are poorly visible because of the denser arctic stratus clouds. At first glance however, it is hard to distinguish from this figure whether the white area is covered by clouds or snow only, because the visible reflectance of a snow-covered ice surface is virtually the same as that of a cloud overlying a snow-covered ice surface. On the right of the visible image there is a whiter spot which is indicated in the figure as a ‘clear’ area; the same area looks black in the infrared image. In the infrared image the whiter areas represent high clouds which have a much larger thermal contrast with the snow-covered sea ice than the low stratus clouds.

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