Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!
Pierre Gosselin writes:
Another major European media outlet is asking: Where’s the global warming?
Image right: The August 7 edition of Denmark’s Jyllands-Posten, featured a major 2-page article on the globe’s 15-years of missing warming and the potential solar causes and implications.
Moreover, they are featuring prominent skeptic scientists who are warning of a potential little ice age and dismissing CO2 as a major climate driver. And all of this just before the release of the IPCC’s 5AR, no less!
Hat-tip: NTZ reader Arne Garbøl
The August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten, the famous daily that published the “Muhammad caricatures“, features a full 2-page article bearing the headline: ”The behavior of the sun may trigger a new little ice age” followed by the sub-headline: “Defying all predictions, the globe may be on the road towards a new little ice age with much colder winters.”
So now even the once very green Danish media is now spreading the seeds of doubt. So quickly can “settled science” become controversial and hotly disputed. The climate debate is far from over. And when it does end, it looks increasingly as if it’ll end in favor of the skeptics.
The JP writes that “many will be startled” by the news that a little ice age is a real possibility. Indeed, western citizens have been conditioned to think that nothing except warming is possible. Few have prepared for any other possibility.
===============================================================
I find this part quite relevant, as I have also asked this obvious question.
Gosselin writes: Jylland Posten ends its 2-page feature story with questions and comments by Svensmark:
How should ocean water under 700 meters be warmed up without a warming in the upper part? … In the period 1990-2000 you could see a rise in the ocean temperatures, which fit with the greenhouse effect. But it hasn’t been seen for the last 10 years. Temperatures don’t rise without the heat content in the sea increasing. Several thousand buoys put into the sea to measure temperature haven’t registered any rise in sea temperatures.”
The “missing heat went to the deep ocean” meme being pushed by the Skeptical Science Kidz is pretty much about as relevant to the reality of climate change as their Nazi role playing.
Read the entire essay here, well worth your time:
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:43 am
vukcevic says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:30 am
NASA’s fleet of THEMIS spacecraft discovered a flux rope pumping a 650,000 Amp current into the Arctic.
No, not at all. The flux ropes connect to the Earth’s magnetic field and feeds energy into the tail away from the Sun. The tail is unstable and ‘blows up’ occasionally. The electric currents then flow from the tail into the ionosphere and back out [that is the closing of the circuit].
—
As long as we are ‘blowing up’ the Earth, magneto tail. Maybe we should blow up Jupiter’s, magneto tail, at a time when Earth is located within close proximity to it. Talk a bout the possibility of some more ACR entering the halo region..
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:46 am
Accumulation of mass and gas due to the suns own gravitational function. It influences solar cycle
If you believe that then you might enjoy the ultimate theory on this [explaining everything]:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/See-and-Meteor-Theory-of-Sunspots.pdf
http://www.leif.org/EOS/See-and-Meteor-Theory-of-Sunspots-Figures.pdf
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:57 am
Maybe we should blow up Jupiter’s, magneto tail, at a time when Earth is located within close proximity to it.
We are never in ‘close proximity’ to it. It is at least 660 million km away.
Low-altitude cloud area variation with cosmic rays is a THEORY with mixed corroboration.
Influence of Low-altitude cloud area on average global temperature is a CALCULATION. http://lowaltitudeclouds.blogspot.com/
A physics-based equation, using only one external forcing, CALCULATES average global temperature anomalies since before 1900 with R2 = 0.9. http://climatechange90.blogspot.com/2013/05/natural-climate-change-has-been.html . Everything not explicitly considered must find room in that unexplained 10%.
The PT theorists may or may not like this. But is related to my comment above about a blowin up a Jovian magnetotail.
Cassini observation of Jovian anomalous continuum radiation
Sheng-Yi Ye1, D. A. Gurnett1, J. D. Menietti1, W. S. Kurth1,
G. Fischer2, P. Schippers1, G. B. Hospodarsky1
12 APR 2012
[1] Jovian anomalous continuum is a narrowband electromagnetic radiation near 10 kHz that can escape from Jupiter’s magnetosphere to interplanetary space. One possible source mechanism is the magnetosheath re-radiation of the Jovian low frequency radio emissions such as the quasiperiodic (QP) radio emissions, broadband kilometric radiation (bKOM) and non-thermal continuum. Jovian anomalous continuum was consistently observed by the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science instrument from 2000 to 2004, right before the Saturn orbit insertion, which means the radiation can be detected as far as 8 AU away from Jupiter. An analysis of intensity versus radial distance shows that the Jovian anomalous continuum has a line source rather than a point source, consistent with the theory that the emission is radiated by the whole length of the magnetotail. The emissions are modulated at the system III period of Jupiter and are unpolarized. Since the lower cutoff frequency of the anomalous continuum is related to the plasma frequency in the magnetosheath of Jupiter, which is a function of solar wind density, the recurrent variations of the lower cutoff frequency can be used as a remote diagnostic of the solar wind condition at Jupiter. We propose that the frequency dispersion, a unique characteristic of the anomalous continuum, is likely a comprehensive effect of both the slow group velocity near the local plasma frequency and the refraction/scattering of the waves by density structures as they propagate in the magnetosheath.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:43 am
…….
Long on comment but lot of it misleading and in part totally wrong.
Currents are induced into lithosphere up to several hundred km depth, with concentration of induction being the strongest within the areas of highest conductivity.
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:20 pm
Cassini observation of Jovian anomalous continuum radiation
You don’t seem to realize how weak radio emission is. The total energy received by all radio telescopes ever since the first one in the 1930s is less that the kinetic energy of a single snow flake falling to the ground…
vukcevic says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:25 pm
Currents are induced into lithosphere up to several hundred km depth
No, not ‘up to’, at several hundred km depth. They have no effect on the ground, except weakening the effects of the overhead currents.
henry@ulric lyons
IMO a quadrant (2 single solar cycles) is a quarter of the 88 year gleissberg cycle (=11 normal single solar cycles)
seems to me the saturn-uranus synodic cycle is the strongest in showing a direct correlation, of
the 4 quadrants of 22/23 years (av) that I am seeing and predicting.
If this be true we could expect to hit rock bottom (max. speed global cooling) in 2016
which is exactly as I had already predicted from my own data….
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
If the other planets have no influence…?
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:35 pm
(Currents are induced into lithosphere) at several hundred km depth.
So now we have induced currents, don’t we?
The current does not flow through Iceland at all.
Not if Iceland was floating in the air, but Iceland and surrounding seas are floating on just 15-20 km thick crust with highly conductive (high gravity coefficient –metal rich) magma
High latitudes volcanic activity from Iceland to Alaska is triggered by geomagnetic storms as measured by Ap index or another ‘mysterious’ coincidence?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Ap-VI.htm
Science is not settled; not on solar, not on volcanic, not on climate and certainly not even at anthropogenic Stanford
vukcevic says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:00 pm
So now we have induced currents, don’t we?
As I have told you many times.
Not if Iceland was floating in the air, but Iceland and surrounding seas are floating on just 15-20 km thick crust with highly conductive (high gravity coefficient –metal rich) magma
No, the magma is not particularly conductive. The induced currents are placed at about 500-700 km depth where the conductivity is 50-500 times higher than that of the magma.
High latitudes volcanic activity from Iceland to Alaska is triggered by geomagnetic storms as measured by Ap index or another ‘mysterious’ coincidence?
They are not. Not enough energy, and no convincing evidence. Many people have looked at this, but no evidence found.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:43 am
vukcevic says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:30 am
3. If you have an old cable with a ‘worn-out’ bit and if it is going to ‘blow’ it will be at its weakest part. Weakest and ‘worn-out’ bit is Iceland and surrounding atmospheric or even more so submarine volcanic area. This would blow-up
The current does not flow through Iceland at all.
—
Hey Vuks, I think he is right. Should have said, Greenland. The Greenland vortex dump and I think there is another on the opposite side.
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:16 pm
<i.The Greenland vortex dump and I think there is another on the opposite side.
Have you checked out the Bermuda Triangle?
If in the UK switch to BBC4, very relevant.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:01 pm
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:46 am
Accumulation of mass and gas due to the suns own gravitational function. It influences solar cycle
If you believe that then you might enjoy the ultimate theory on this [explaining everything]:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/See-and-Meteor-Theory-of-Sunspots.pdf
http://www.leif.org/EOS/See-and-Meteor-Theory-of-Sunspots-Figures.pdf
—
Yes, well talk about accumulations of mass, Jupiter and Saturn are ranked high as a duo system, within this solar system.
But the Jupiter magnetotail blow up you misunderstood?
If the Jupiter magnetosphere is impacted by a solar event, (CME or) and the magnetotail releases some of that energy into space, the particles it is said, “become accelerated to ACR levels.”
Depends on which angle, cause they think maybe we are getting some of our anomalous cosmic rays ACR from Jupiter.
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:44 pm
If the Jupiter magnetosphere is impacted by a solar event, (CME or) and the magnetotail releases some of that energy into space, the particles it is said, “become accelerated to ACR levels.”
The ACRs are but a tiny element in the energy budget of the heliosphere, and the part we may get from Jupiter is a tiny part of that tiny part.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:17 pm
Carla says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:16 pm
<i.The Greenland vortex dump and I think there is another on the opposite side.
Have you checked out the Bermuda Triangle?
—
Um.. no. Not lately, used to be associated with unusual atmospheric phenomenom.
In reply to:
HenryP says:
August 11, 2013 at 8:31 am
William Astley said
(William: Dr Nir J. Shaviv estimated) is estimated to be 0.47C ±0.19C or cooling in the range of 0.28C to 0.66C.
henry says
you did not specify a time period given by this guy but from the look at my tables, it looks earth’s energy stores are depleted now and average temperatures on earth will probably fall by as much as what the maxima are falling now. I estimate this is about -0.3K in the next 8 years and a further -0.2 or -0.3K from 2020 until 2038. By that time we will be back to where we were in 1950, more or less…
William:
The cooling will be more significant and more rapid than expected. This is an odd problem due to the climate war. The scientists are forced to explain what is happening based on CO2 causing the warming. The observations do not, however, support that assertion.
Comment:
It is obvious based on what is currently happening to Dr. Salby that the cabal will directly attack ones career and reputation if a person scientifically questions the extreme AGW paradigm. Dr Salby is a pure scientist an author of a graduate textbook on atmospheric science. I am deeply saddened by the attacks on Dr Salby. As people are not fearless and have families and love ones to support, there is a conscious and unconscious tendency to stay within the paradigm of one’s field to preserve employment and for future advancement.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521767180/ref=ox_sc_act_title_1?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabal
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/11/murry-salby-responds-to-critics/
The warming in the last 100 years is regional distributed, not global; the Greenland ice sheet and the high Arctic has warmed the most. As the CO2 forcing function is logarithmically proportional to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and CO2 is more or less evenly distributed in the atmosphere, the warming due to CO2 should be more or less evenly distributed in the global if solar energy was evenly distributed on the surface of the planet. As the planet is a sphere, solar energy is not evenly distributed on the surface of the planetl. The most amount of solar energy input occurs in the tropics and the least amount in the polar regions.
The most amount of warming due to the CO2 forcing function/mechanism should therefore occur in the tropics as the most amount of long wave radiation is emitted to space in the tropics. That is not what is observed. The Northern hemisphere ex-tropics warmed twice as much as the global as whole and four times more than the tropics.
The warmists appeal to TSI changes to explain the warming from 1850 to 1950. The warming 1850 to 1950 is regional not global following the pattern of warming 1950 to present. TSI changes cannot explain a regional pattern of warming. TSI forcing is not regional. The most amount of warming occurred in Greenland and in the high Arctic. TSI increases, if they did occur, should have warmed the entire planet and again as the planet is spherical the most amount of warming should have occurred in the tropics.
To produce regional warming rather than global warming with most of the warming concentrated in high latitude Northern regions requires a different mechanism. Modulation of planetary cloud cover can produced regional warming and as the modulation mechanism is strong in the high latitudes due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field the mechanism can explain the region pattern of warming that has occurred cyclically. I have provided a link to Svensmark’s paper three or four times which explains the polar anomaly (Antarctic ice sheet cools when the Greenland ice sheet warms and vice verse cyclically, this phenomena is also called the polar anomaly which is confusing as the entire pole region is not out of sync in terms of temperature rise, only the two ice sheets). I can explain why this is so physically if anyone is interested.
The point of the above comments is the inhibiting mechanism that was removing ions from the atmosphere is complete. GCR modulation of planetary clouds is now returning to normal. There will be significant and rapid cooling of both the Greenland Ice sheet and the Arctic. As both the Greenland Ice sheet and the high Arctic are covered by ice there will no delay in cooling due to the time lag to heat sea water. The total amount of global cooling will be delayed somewhat as the ocean temperature reaches equilibrium for a colder high latitude.
Comment: The warming is going to reverse. The mechanism that caused the warming in the last 100 years was not the increase in atmospheric CO2. The planet does not suddenly and rapidly cool for no reason. TSI is not reduced. There needs to be a physical explanation for cooling.
Vukcevic : High latitudes volcanic activity from Iceland to Alaska is triggered by geomagnetic storms as measured by Ap index or another ‘mysterious’ coincidence?
Dr. Svalgaard:: They are not. Not enough energy, and no convincing evidence. Many people have looked at this, but no evidence found.
Iceland and the Arctic are unique, there continental plates are spreading out. Magma pouring out to the surface is directly from the Mantle’s convection cell (thermal circulation all the way from outer core- liquid iron & nickel to the Earth’s surface).
In most of other volcanic areas magma is product of tectonic plates subduction process, with no direct link with convection cells.
Evidence is there if you look in the right place, and I did
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Ap-VI.htm
first posted on WUWT one year ago, almost to a day.
This article describes observations at 110 MHz to 2300 MHz pg. 9. Quite cool, on how they see our neighboring H1 shell rotate. We I think are in the L1 shell, adjacent to H1 and may have the same rotation qualities.
Rotation Measure Synthesis of the Local
Magnetized ISM
Maik Wolleben
Covington Fellow, DRAO
http://www.atnf.csiro.au/research/Astro2010/talks/wolleben.pdf
from pgs. 25-26 of this pdf presentation
– Positive φ in the east changes to negative φ in
the west, suggesting that the B-field is wrapped
around the bubble
– Polarized emission at φ=0 rad/m2 along the
centre of the bubble links these two regions
– Shape and implied B-field configuration of this
HI bubble suggest that is has expanded
asymmetrically
– Expansion constrained to only one direction
along the line-of-sight
– The shells act as a Faraday-rotating screen to the strong background
emission and also as a weaker mixed emitting and rotating slab
vukcevic says:
August 11, 2013 at 3:46 pm
Iceland and the Arctic are unique, there continental plates are spreading out.
So what, the plates are spreading all along the mid Atlantic ridge [from] North to South. and many other places http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_seafloor_crust_age_1996.gif nothing unique about Iceland, and no induced currents as the conductivity is too low: resistivity of the magma ~100 Ohm meter compared to some 5 Ohm meter at depth of ~500 km.
http://www.solen.info/solar/
Later we should have a poll to estimate when the sun will start having spotless days and how long the sun will be spotless. Livingston and Penn’s estimated in their 2006 paper was that the sun will be spotless in 2015 which is conservative as based on L & P’s data the sun will no longer be capable for producing sunspots in 2015. Based on past Maunder like minimums the sun will be spotless for 50 to 100 years.
Spotless days starting in 2014 and a completely spotless sun mid-2014 will catch everyone’s attention as there will also be significant high Arctic and Greenland Ice sheet cooling. (5C to 6C cooling in the high Northern latitudes.) The global cooling will lag 2 or 3 years as it takes time for the ocean to cool. The estimated range of global cooling based on Shaviv’s calculation is 0.28C to 0.66C.)
My prediction is that we will start having sun spotless days by the end of the year as there are no longer sunspots on the surface of the sun only short lived pores. Today for example there are no pores in the solar northern hemisphere only pores in the southern hemisphere.
It should be noted that the standard counting methodology for sunspots is likely not applicable for counting pores.
There are of course more pores generated as the magnetic ropes are torn to pieces in the convection zone. The resultant pore on the surface of the sun is short lived as compared to the larger higher magnetic field intensity sunspot. A sunspot’s life time is roughly one complete solar rotation although some of the larger sunspots in past solar cycles have survived for a couple of rotations. The pore’s life time is now typically ½ to ¼ rotation of the sun.
As no one is discussing the fact that pores have replaced sunspots likely people will be surprised when there are suddenly pore less days early 2014. The smooth sunspot graph will also look odd as it will appear to suddenly drop off early 2014 and then flat line starting mid 2014.
William Astley says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm
A sunspot’s life time is roughly one complete solar rotation
You are confusing sunspots with active region. A typical spot only lives a couple of days and even more than half of active regions [groups] live less than 2 days.
people will be surprised when there are suddenly pore less days early 2014.
I will be very surprised if there will be pore less days if spots are turning into pores. What are you going to do if your prediction does not come to pass?
pity you guys do not have any results, so all you do is speculate…
anyways, I am going with the saturn and uranus switch
perhaps Uranus’ apparent sideways motion (inclination of equator by 98 degrees) as distinct from the other planets operates as a pushpull trigger
In reply to:
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:45 pm
William Astley says:
August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm
A sunspot’s life time is roughly one complete solar rotation
You are confusing sunspots with active region. A typical spot only lives a couple of days and even more than half of active regions [groups] live less than 2 days.
people will be surprised when there are suddenly pore less days early 2014.
I will be very surprised if there will be pore less days if spots are turning into pores. What are you going to do if your prediction does not come to pass?
William:
I am not. If you prefer call the pores a group. The `sunspot group` evolves as you note and its lifetime is typically one rotation of the sun. The pore group`s lifetime is ½ to ¼ rotation of the sun.
You have not made any predictions. You do not have any skin in the game. Are you saying it is impossible that the sun could be spotless mid-2014 by the end of 2014?
Perhaps you could be more descriptive of what you predict will happen to the sun by mid-2014 and by the start of 2015. You have not explained why sunspots have been replaced by pores and do not acknowledge that the change from sunspot to pores will result in a spotless sun.
Any comment on the reduction in the solar large scale magnetic field cycle to cycle to cycle?
http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
Comment: Your attitude in this forum is flippant and sarcastic which is excusable for now as you do not understand the implications of significant abrupt cooling. The current solar magnetic cycle change appears to be the specific special solar magnetic cycle that causes Heinrich events. The Heinrich cooling occurs from time to time (roughly every 8000 to 10,000 years) after the warming phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle. We have had the warming phase and are now starting to experience the normal cooling of the D-O cycle.
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/transit.html
Until a few decades ago it was generally thought that all large-scale global and regional climate changes occurred gradually over a timescale of many centuries or millennia, scarcely perceptible during a human lifetime. The tendency of climate to change relatively suddenly has been one of the most suprising outcomes of the study of earth history, specifically the last 150,000 years (e.g., Taylor et al., 1993). Some and possibly most large climate changes (involving, for example, a regional change in mean annual temperature of several degrees celsius) occurred at most on a timescale of a few centuries, sometimes decades, and perhaps even just a few years.
ABRUPT CHANGE IN EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita/teaching/CClittell/readings/Jan31_Overpeck_and_Cole_2006.pdf
Cold-climate abrupt change occurs with a characteristic timescale of appro.1500 years, a feature that must be explained by any proposed mechanism. North Atlantic and the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) records exhibit a period of approx.1470 years (64, 65). However, the adjacent ice core isotope record from the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) site exhibits periods closer to 1670 and 1130–1330 years, which is in agreement with the independently dated record from Hulu Cave (49, 66). Time series studies generally converge on a picture of a noisy climate system paced by a regular, perhaps external, forcing, with the sensitivity of the system to the forcing varying depending on background conditions or stochastic variability [e.g., (67– 69)]. Solar forcing, although subtle, is the leading candidate for external forcing and has been found to be consistent with either a 1450–1470–year period (70, 71) or the 1667- and 1130-year periods (66).
The event at 8200 ka is the most striking sudden cooling event during the Holocene, giving widespread cool, dry conditions lasting perhaps 200 years before a rapid return to climates warmer and generally moister than the present. This event is clearly detectable in the Greenland ice cores, where the cooling seems to have been about half-way as severe as the Younger Dryas-to-Holocene difference (Alley et al., 1997; Mayewski et al., 1997). No detailed assessment of the speed of change involved seems to have been made within the literature (though it should be possible to make such assessments from the ice core record), but the short duration of these events at least suggests changes that took only a few decades or less to occur.