Denmark gets a dose of global cooling in major newspaper

I don’t think we are heading for another Little Ice Age. If that were true, CO2 and methane and black carbon would have to have very little effect.
I agree that the IPCC has overestimated climate sensitivity — I’ve thought that for quite a while, just following temperature trends — and now we have a number of peer reviewed article suggesting that the IPCC was on the high side.
But just because I think that we aren’t going to warm as much as the IPCC thinks, doesn’t mean that all of a sudden, CO2 and such won’t cause any warming.
The LIA was about 1.5 degrees C cooler than today, worldwide average; let’s say that about 0.5 degrees of that is due to human influences of all kinds, the other 1 degree due to solar.
Suppose we double CO2 and equivalents, and that produces (everything else equal) only 2 degrees C warming, which is around where the new climate sensitively calculations coalesce. Now suppose we also go back to the Little Ice Age due to 70 years of a cooler sun (they couldn’t find sunspots for 70 years, during the Maunder Minimum). Subtract one degree C (cooling) from 2 degrees C (warming, from doubling CO2 and equivalents) and you get one degree warmer than today around 2070. More CO2, more plant growth, and a slightly warmer world.
No Little Ice Age, but reduced warming and lots of food.

Scarface says: @ur momisugly August 10, 2013 at 8:30 am
…. Density of Ocean Water…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yo also have the effect of freezing and evaporation on ocean water. The icebergs are relatively fresh water while the remaining water becomes more salty.

….As sea water evaporates the salt remains behind, only the freshwater is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, hence a region of excess evaporation, such as the subtropics (Fig. 14) tend to become salty (Fig. 15), while the areas of excess rainfall become fresher. The tropical belt, or Intra-tropical Convergence Zone is such an area. Ocean circulation acts to move lower salinity seawater into evaporative regions, and more saline water into humid regions, this is part of the hydrological cycle.
The relative freshness of the Pacific Ocean surface water contrasted sharply with the surface salinity of the Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 15). Excess evaporation of the Atlantic and excess precipitation of the Pacific are balanced to some measure by an atmospheric flux of water vapor over Central America, amounting to 0.35 Sv. The Arctic Sea is very fresh, due to the enormous amount of river water that drains into it from the northern continents.
In the polar regions seawater freezes (Fig. 16). Southern ocean ice exhibits lots of seasonal variability, and is generally only 0.5 meters thick. Arctic sea ice is thicker, ranging from 2 to 3 meters. The sea ice contains only part of the seawater salt, about 0.5% (5 ppt), hence ice formation like evaporation, concentrates salt in the remaining body of seawater. This causes very dense water (cold), which in some regions in the Southern Ocean leads to deep reaching convection forming a water mass that spreads along the sea floor well into the northern hemisphere. This water mass is called Antarctic Bottom Water (see below). The very low salinity of the Arctic prohibits the development of deep reaching convection in the Arctic Sea…..
http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/o_strat.html

You can then add in Drakes Passage which has been modeled and Bob Tisdale on ENSO.
From what I can tell the constriction through Drakes Passage sends some of the Antarctic cold water up along the coast of South America. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is driven by wind and therefore the strength of those winds may have something to do with the formation of El Nino/La Nina. (SWAG)

…The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the most important current in the Southern Ocean, and the only current that flows completely around the globe. The ACC, as it encircles the Antarctic continent, flows eastward through the southern portions of the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans….
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current’s eastward flow is driven by strong westerly winds. The average wind speed between 40°S and 60°S is 15 to 24 knots with strongest winds typically between 45°S and 55°S. Historically, the ACC has been referred to as the ‘West Wind Drift’ because the prevailing westerly wind and current are both eastward.
Without the aid of continental reference point, except for the Drake Passage, where by convention, all flow through the Passage is the ACC, the current’s boundaries are generally defined by zonal variations in specific water properties of the Southern Ocean (Gordon et al., 1977). Variations in these properties have been used to classify regions whose edges are defined by fronts, where there is rapid changes in water properties which occur over a short distance. North of the ACC is the Subtropical Convergence or Subtropical Front (STF), usually found between 35°S and 45°S, where the average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes from about 12°C to 7 to 8°C and salinity decreases from greater than 34.9 to 34.6 or less…..
The southern boundary of the ACC is approximately at 65°S in most of the Indian and Pacific Ocean, from 50°E to the dateline; moves northward to 60°S, east of the dateline to 140°W; is near 70°S by 120°W and moves northward to 60°S, east of the Drake Passage; and northward to 55°S at 10°E. Northward displacement of the southern boundary of the ACC are in the areas of gyres with clockwise surface circulation in the Weddell Sea and in the Ross Sea.
Strong, nearly zonal, westerly winds force a large, near-surface, northward Ekman transport and a northward pressure gradient. The ACC current is in approximately geostrophic equilibrium, so that inclined layers of constant density slope towards the surface poleward across the ACC to balance the current’s northward sea surface height elevation. The alignment between the prevailing winds and the resulting geostrophic current intensifies the ACC. Because stronger gradients give rise to stronger flow, the majority of the ACC transport is associated with the fronts within the current….
http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/southern/antarctic-cp.html

Last you can add in ozone.

…Scientists have linked the ozone hole that forms each Antarctic spring high above Earth to changes in the fierce band of westerly winds that swirls around Antarctica. Those winds, closer to the continent’s surface, have grown stronger and moved poleward over the past several decades. And now a new study suggests that the ozone hole has an even broader reach. It finds evidence those shifting winds are speeding circulation patterns in polar waters….
“The models were indicating there could be some change in ocean circulation (caused by ozone depletion), but there was a lot of debate about whether what the models were saying was actually happening,” said lead author Darryn Waugh, a climate scientist at Johns Hopkins University.
His research, published Thursday in the journal Science, bears those models out. It was published alongside a separate study, from researchers at Pennsylvania State University, that affirms the ozone hole has been the main driver of the changes in Antarctica’s winds, dwarfing the role played by climate change…..
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ozone-holes-shifting-winds-may-be-sapping-major-carbon-sink-15530

And the last link is the changes in the amount of solar UV and E-UV wave lengths as well as the solar winds changing the Cosmic Ray flux.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Ozone/ozone_2.php
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/31/ozone-depletion-trumps-greenhouse-gas-increase-in-jet-stream-shift/

Leif Svalgaard says:
“The Danish text uses the word ‘kan’ which literally translates as ‘can’ and is somewhat stronger than ‘may’.”
————————
Correct Sir, “kan” translate to “can” as in Obama’s “Yes we Can” as in “if You put your mind to it”
“I CAN make a comment on WUWT, but My arguments MAY fail”

The Danes are probably concerned the first real climate refugees will be their neighbors to the north and east. Check your maps. That would represent a lot of fellow EU citizens looking for a warm place to hang their hat and some sweet pastries. It would not be the first time the Swedes came to town to kick the snow off their boots (Scanian war). The LIA was especially hard on the Fins and Estonians as well, and surely they will not sit quietly by and freeze to death this time.
The LIA was the last important glacier building period, too, and we can expect a repeat of that should LIA II come to pass, and quaint alpine villages will surely be crushed under glaciers thought to be in their death throes in a more naive time. The very expensive glass houses at Mauna Kea and Haleakala in Hawaii would also be at risk. Hawaii once had glaciers, too.
Time will tell, but it is certainly true that climate change is the greatest threat we face. Depending on what the climate changes to. It may be a good time to duffel up the seed cache at Svalbard and move it to a safer place.

Kelvin Vaughan says:
August 10, 2013 at 2:25 am
CO2 is innocent – release CO2. Witnesses were lying!
And, furthermore, it was convicted in a kangaroo court, with neither witnesses nor lawyers for the defence.

BTW, southern Summit County, Colorado (near Breckenridge) had mid day snowfall down to 13000 ft on Aug. 7. 2013
http://i44.tinypic.com/25koqz9.jpg
Subject: Pacific Peak, Crystal Peak, Peak 10 (Left to Right) Aug 7, 2013.
The snow didn’t last 24 hrs. I can’t prove snow this early is unusual,
but here is a link from Rocky Mtn News Aug 13, 2008
And this: “Snow in August, You Betcha!” from Aug 17, 2008.

1.August 8, 2013 at 12:51 pm
2.
Leif Svalgaard, is in a dream wolrd when it comes to what is currently taken place on the sun and the future climatic implications.
3.
Leif has no regard for past history which lends support that the sun is much more variable then what he keeps trying to convey and that the solar conditions during the MAUNDER MINIMUM were very weak(aa index near 0 ,solar wind 200km/sec) and how this correlated to the very cold conditions at that time. In addition he keeps trying to down play the significance of how very very weak solar cycle 24 is and will be going forward.
4.
This flip is nothing like a normal flip and I would not be surprised (as the prolonged solar minimum continues due to angular momentum exerted by the planets on the sun, which Leif also says is not correct) that this may be the last flip , or at the very least the future flips are going to be even less pronounced then even this one.
5.
Leif, and the mainstream keep trying to play up the fact that the sun is acting the same now as it has all of last century which can not be further from the truth.
6.
This cycle could be weaker then solar cycle 5, and is much weaker then solar cycle 14 . Layman sunspot counts and graphs which are correct show this clearly to be the case.
7.
The AP index and solar flux going forward will end this debate, and as of today we have solar flux around 105 at the maximum ! It should be north of 150.
8.
Also since Oct 2005 the AP index has been extremely low and I expect sub 5 will be the rule in the not to distant future, at least post 2015.
9.
Once the solar parameters hit the levels I have been saying (see below) I list the potential secondary effects which could take place as a result.
10.
1. solar flux sub 90 but better sub 72, less UV light less ozone more meridional atm. circulation ,more clouds,snow cover and precip.,higher albedo ,colder temp. N.H.
11.
2. precipitation patterns changing can impact the thermohaline circulation perhaps slowing it down if precip increases substancially and adds more fresh water to the system.
12.
3. solar wind sub 350 km/sec but better sub 300 km/sec, more cosmic rays more clouds ,higher albedo, colder temp. more geological activity especially in high latitudes.the geo magnetic field weakening of earth promoting this even more.
13.
4. solar irradiance off .015% less visible light ocean heat content subsides
14.
5. ap index 5 or lower with isolated spikes will cause the plates to be more unstable, more volcanic activity and earthquake activity. more shocks to the magnetosphere.
15.
6. low solar in addition to being correlated with an increase in major volcanic activity and earthquakes in and around the solar minimums also can be tied to a cold pdo/amo. a cold pdo translates to more la ninas versus el ninos the result global cooling.
16.
7. low solar actiivty having severe impacts to the Thermosphere and Ionopsphere.
Thermosphere will contract and cool substancially during a prolonged solar minimum which will inter act with all the other layers of the atmosphere.
17.
This explanation is the ONLY explanation that can explain the many past abrupt climatic changes of the past both up and down. There are no other explanations from Milankovitch Cycles, to the Thermohaline circulation shutting down, to extra terrestrial impacts,to the sudden increases in greenhouse gases like methane or co2 etc etc.
18.
The explanation above shows how the climate could be brought to thresholds if the solar parameters change in degree of magnitude strong enough and for a period of duration long enough following a sufficient number of years of sub- solar activity in general, which no other explanation is able to show.
19.
Thresholds have to be met to flip the climate from one climatic regime to another. When the climate is in the same climatic regime changes are gradual and slow and always stay within particular boundaries.
20.
I am still waiting for alternative explanations, have yet to see one.
21.
22.
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