Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!
Pierre Gosselin writes:
Another major European media outlet is asking: Where’s the global warming?
Image right: The August 7 edition of Denmark’s Jyllands-Posten, featured a major 2-page article on the globe’s 15-years of missing warming and the potential solar causes and implications.
Moreover, they are featuring prominent skeptic scientists who are warning of a potential little ice age and dismissing CO2 as a major climate driver. And all of this just before the release of the IPCC’s 5AR, no less!
Hat-tip: NTZ reader Arne Garbøl
The August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten, the famous daily that published the “Muhammad caricatures“, features a full 2-page article bearing the headline: ”The behavior of the sun may trigger a new little ice age” followed by the sub-headline: “Defying all predictions, the globe may be on the road towards a new little ice age with much colder winters.”
So now even the once very green Danish media is now spreading the seeds of doubt. So quickly can “settled science” become controversial and hotly disputed. The climate debate is far from over. And when it does end, it looks increasingly as if it’ll end in favor of the skeptics.
The JP writes that “many will be startled” by the news that a little ice age is a real possibility. Indeed, western citizens have been conditioned to think that nothing except warming is possible. Few have prepared for any other possibility.
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I find this part quite relevant, as I have also asked this obvious question.
Gosselin writes: Jylland Posten ends its 2-page feature story with questions and comments by Svensmark:
How should ocean water under 700 meters be warmed up without a warming in the upper part? … In the period 1990-2000 you could see a rise in the ocean temperatures, which fit with the greenhouse effect. But it hasn’t been seen for the last 10 years. Temperatures don’t rise without the heat content in the sea increasing. Several thousand buoys put into the sea to measure temperature haven’t registered any rise in sea temperatures.”
The “missing heat went to the deep ocean” meme being pushed by the Skeptical Science Kidz is pretty much about as relevant to the reality of climate change as their Nazi role playing.
Read the entire essay here, well worth your time:
Alan Watt: Point is, WE are not doing the counteracting–it is a newspaper who has been part of the Warmista propaganda machine that’s doing it–primarily as a consequence of system changes in both solar output and temperature declines.
So this is something relatively new–they are indeed acquiring “integrity or diligence previously lacking” (which, we don’t know) but whatever their driving force, they seem to be aware of current trends and are willing to do a news piece that doesn’t bode well for the Warmistas.
And once the Warmista meme has been dismantled, it won’t be long before insane policies pushed by the EU and other countries will be dismantled also. I predict that soon we’ll start to see such news items in newspapers across the globe, which will forever destroy the “Climate by CO2” fiction.
This is a whole new ballgame–and a welcome one at that.
I still wonder why it is so difficult for someone to get the same results as I did:
it will continue to cool until 2038 or 2039 and by that time we will be back to where we were in 1950. There will not be an ice age.
But we probably will have the droughts, due to a lack of moisture and weather….
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
lgl says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:33 am
Are you claiming the warming of the 0-700m layer was caused by an increase in CO2?
Is that what you believe to be the cause of the “0.5 W/m2 since the 70s” heat source?
I told you so a long time ago. The Berlin wall of denial has cracked down to its very foundation with this article, The water of truth is gushing through the crack. Now, watch the warmists employ their crowbars to widen the crack with their outlandish statements.
From the full article:
The JP then quotes Irish solar specialist Ian Elliott, who says these consequences could be dramatic: ” It indicates that we may be on the path to a new little ice age….”
More could be / may be scare stories, now going the other way.
Dalton minimum solar conditions is probably realistic but that does not mean we will experience D.M. temperatures in view of where temeratures are currently.
Reality and true science have shown CAGW to be false. Climate’s sensitivity to the increased C02 is so low that it can’t be ferreted out. Natural forces are, and always have been driving our climate. That is the breakthrough. The very fact that the MSM is beginning to carry articles such as this one, exposing more people to the other side is huge. Once the bogus CAGW dies, then and only then can the real scientific debate begin about how much of an influence the sun has, and how much cooling we can expect.
@lgl
Water with a temperature of 4C is the most dense. That’s why the temperature at the bottom of the sea will be roughly that. And that is why the missing heat will not be in the deep sea. Warm water is less dense so it will not go down in a body of water. Any currents that go down in the ocean are COLD currents, since they are more dense.
So, assuming heat snuck down deep in the ocean to hide since ~2000, why should we not assume it did the same thing from ~1940 to ~1980? And because they say CO2 caused all the warming from ~1980 to ~2000 then all that heat is still down there and even more is being added to it right now! Yikes, it also must have happened from ~1870 to ~1910 so THAT’S down there as well!
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s obvious that it might be really really hot ‘down there’ and I nominate Kevin Trenberth to go ‘down there’ and investigate.
And if he doesn’t come back then we’ll know he was right all along!
ozspeaksup says: August 10, 2013 at 5:08 am
Here in WA there is much anger and angst among those who bought solar panels, as the state Government has just passed the budget which includes dropping the ‘feed-in’ tariff from 0.40c Per Kw/hr to 0.20c – the supply price to the rest of us is .23c per kw/hr.
Federal Election on the 7th Sept should dump the LoonyLabor govt of the incompetent and the Liberal party Leader (Tony Abbott) is on record that “The science behind the Co2 scare is crap’ and the election manifesto includes the repeal of the Carbon Tax immediately on taking office.
One might say the clouds are still thick but rays of sunlight are beginning to poke through at last
[For the rest of the world, WA is West Australia? 8<) Mod]
RockyRoad
Some of it. Most of it was natural variability.
Scarface
700-2000m is not the bottom of the sea.
Otter says:
August 10, 2013 at 2:32 am
“I had been told by one of my detractors, where I post my skeptic articles, that skepticism is ‘a dying reactionary movement,’ ostensibly existing in the US and nowhere else.”
Be assured that it exists in Germany. The state media will only portrait it as a few crazy crackpots. We are used to that; and there is no love lost between us and the state media; which we are forced to fund to the tune of 7 bn EUR a year; a lavish payment for lardass pro-EU apparatchiks.
They have to smear so many different small movements these days their news turns into a hatefest every day.
lgl says: August 10, 2013 at 3:50 am “The forcing has remained high but not increased the last decade.”
This is new one to me. WHO is saying that the forcing has to keep increasing in order for temperature to keep increasing? Perhaps you are suggesting that we’re asymptotically approaching thermal equilibrium with the present forcing?
If that is what you are suggesting then you are admitting that now at this moment (last 17 years) we have a thermally STABLE climate condition. Such thoroughly EXCLUDES the idea that ‘excess’ heat is hiding deep in the ocean. You cannot have it both ways…
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Scarface says:
August 10, 2013 at 6:02 am
@lgl
Water with a temperature of 4C is the most dense.
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The ocean is saltwater, not distilled water.
The Ocean is absorbing 0.5 W/m2/year right now (a measly 0.002C/year which is also within the error margin),
… while global warming theory predicts ocean warming to currently be 1.2 W/m2/year,
… while the surface/atmosphere is absorbing Zero W/m2/year in this current temperature standstill,
… and the total net direct forcing is supposed to currently be 2.0 W/m2/year,
… and the indirect feedback forcing like water vapor is supposed to be another 1.6 W/m2/year,
… and increased emissions to space to be subtracted from these numbers is predicted to be 0.8 W/m2/year ,
… for a total forcing which should be showing up of 2.8 W/m2/year.
Simple math of the missing energy and the problems with the theory. Focus on a measly 0.5 W/m2/year ocean warming while it is only 40% of that predicted and 18% of the total forcing which is supposed to be showing up.
The behavior of the sun may trigger a new little ice age
The Danish text uses the word ‘kan’ which literally translates as ‘can’ and is somewhat stronger than ‘may’.
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:55 am
I’m going to stick my neck out and say we should not be trying to counteract doomsday prophecies of global warming with equally unsupported predictions about ice ages (mini or otherwise)….
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Alan they are not unsupported.
The Holocene is at the half precession point and solar insolation is declining. If you look at the trend from the Holocene Optimum, summer solar energy in the Northern Hemisphere has dropped about 30 W/m2 graph and link. This blog article is backed up by this sentence in a peer-reviewed paper:
Another blog article discusses another paper about Norway glaciers showing that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial activity has been in the past 600 years.
The key discussion that should be occurring is what happens as you approach the glacial inception threshold.
And finally. As reported in Nature Geosciences, “Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum,” Celia Martin-Puertas et al. took a meticulous look at annual sediment deposits in a German lake from 3,300 to 2,000 years ago. They analyzed the sediment layers—called varve—carefully measuring proxies for solar irradiance. This is what they found and their major conclusion:
Long term it is going to get cooler but the ride is also going to be ‘Bumpier’ as we enter the lower solar insolation area that is near the ‘Switching Point’ between the two bistable climate regimes. (Hat tip to Dr. Brown @ur momisugly Duke) Notice how there is a dispute as to whether we are headed towards glaciation or “a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial.” But no matter which thesis is correct, it is that ‘bumpy ride’ that climate instability near the ‘Switching Point’ that should concern us at this time.
Richard B. Alley of the U.Penn. chaired the National Research Council on Abrupt Climate Change. Discusses this instability in the opening paragraph in the executive summary of “Abrupt Climate Change – Inevitable Surprises”, Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002, ISBN: 0-309-51284-0, 244 pages, Richard B. Alley, chair : http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347
THIS is the area we should be focusing our money and attention. I really hope you are correct and this is just another tempest in a teapot but I fear not. Only additional REAL HONEST science will be able to tell us.
Maybe the historians of the future will call the last few decades the Obama Warm Period. There’s otherwise little else to remember him for.
Gail Combs says: August 10, 2013 at 8:01 am “Only additional REAL HONEST science will be able to tell us.”
Correct but if we rely on government for the science of global cooling we will likely get the same response we are getting for global warming, people giving the answers they believe will best insure their jobs/grants into the future. More and more it seems that our government is the LAST entity we should be trusting for honest information. If not them then WHO?
It all falls apart when actual science is applied. Falsified I think is the word to describe it. We need more real science.
Anthony, your handiwork, though unacknowledged in this report, is very much visible in this and the other CAGW “pauses” and turnarounds in the press. I found WUWT in 2007, searching to see if others like myself were counteracting this self immolation of civilization and freedom. In 2007, it was a bleak very worrisome picture with the Pied Piper(s) of Hamelin leading an innocent, unknowing throng of Kumbaya choresters to their destruction. Incredibly, 97% of the newspapers, TV, non-government organizations, funding sources and governments and 100% of the technical journals, universities and scientific institutions were marching in rhythm to the tune. Even as I write this, I have to pinch myself to believe this possible. It is like writing about the horrors of the Black Plague with the knowledge that this modern version was worse. I didn’t have much hope that we would wake up in time from this phantasmagoria http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantasmagoria.
With some relief from the dark lunacy, I hope we can take away huge lessons concerning how easy it actually is to destroy what we believed to be essentially an indestructible bastion of freedom and progress that we had come to understand as the natural way of things. Now that we know it is a delicate thread and that the vast majority of people and their institutions are so easily subvertible by a determined, permanent, hateful legion of nihilists, can we now understand that we must be constantly on guard to do battle without quarter to maintain this delicate thread? Does the growing disillusionment, at least among thinkers, in the well-meaning majority lead to any sense that we must be more vigilant, more skeptical, more resistant in the face of grand claims that clearly serve elitist dreams of distopia? Can we better recognize the subphylum of misanthropic pipers whose deceitful ends are dressed up in compelling causes (saving the planet)? We should be able to, having seen these types and their methods many times before.
Can we rehabilitate our universities and related institutions and journals, insisting on the highest standards of excellence and integrity. Can we change the things that inexorably lead to their corruption, the way they are funded, managed, their modus operandi?
The other lesson has no question marks. I learned that as long as there are at least a few, honest, stalwart skeptics like Anthony Watts who can attract a nucleus of the like-minded who use logic, evidence (or lack thereof), honest scientific criticism to dissect agenda-driven “science” of those of dark purpose or their unwitting collaborators, the tide can be turned against enormous odds. My cynicism concerning the vast majority has considerably dissipated. Given the clear logic of counter arguments, the revelation of manipulation and subversion (climategate) the presentation of corruption and failures of the status quo and the evidence of their own senses, it seems almost everyone (and the press) is ultimately from Missouri.
@beng
That is true. I immediately started looking for the temperature at which salt water is the most dense. I couldn’t find it, but this made me feel pretty sure that cold salt water will be at the bottom of the ocean:
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Density of Ocean Water
The density of pure water is 1000 kg/m3. Ocean water is more dense because of the salt in it. Density of ocean water at the sea surface is about 1027 kg/m3.
There are two main factors that make ocean water more or less dense than about 1027 kg/m3: the temperature of the water and the salinity of the water. Ocean water gets more dense as temperature goes down. So, the colder the water, the more dense it is. Increasing salinity also increases the density of sea water.
Less dense water floats on top of more dense water. Given two layers of water with the same salinity, the warmer water will float on top of the colder water. There is one catch though! Temperature has a greater effect on the density of water than salinity does. So a layer of water with higher salinity can actual float on top of water with lower salinity if the layer with higher salinity is quite a bit warmer than the lower salinity layer.
The temperature of the ocean decreases and decreases as you go to the bottom of the ocean. So, the density of ocean water increases and increases as you go to the bottom of the ocean. The deep ocean is layered with the densest water on bottom and the lightest water on top. Circulation in the depths of the ocean is horizontal. That is, water moves along the layers with the same density.
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Water/density.html
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So, ocean water gets more dense as temperature goes down and the temperature of the ocean decreases and decreases as you go to the bottom of the ocean. I still think that there will be no missing heat hiding at the bottom of the ocean. Agree?
We predicted most of this debacle more than a decade ago. See below, note especially points 1, 8 and 9.
Regards, Allan
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/16/onset-of-the-next-glaciation/#comment-1079770
[excerpts]
We predicted global cooling by 2020-2030 in an article written in 2002. I think there is a reasonable probability that this cooling will be severe enough to affect the grain harvest. Urgent study of this question is appropriate, but the climate science community is so contaminated by warmist hysteria that it is apparently incapable of objective analysis.
A full Ice Age is not required to hurt the developed world. More moderate global cooling could suffice.
Modern Western society is complex, so moderate global cooling, together with a crippling of our food and energy systems through green-energy nonsense, could have devastating effects. (Add a collapse of major global currencies due to excessive money-printing by central banks in the UK, Europe, the USA and Japan.)
Is this just more alarmist nonsense? Perhaps, but we have a strong predictive track record, unlike the warmists who have none.
__________________
Here are some background notes:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/23/ar5-climate-forecasts-what-to-believe/#comment-1064602
[excerpts]
Prediction Number 9
In a separate article in the Calgary Herald, also published in 2002, I (we) predicted imminent global cooling, starting by 2020 to 2030. This prediction is still looking good, since there has been no net global warming for about a decade, and solar activity has crashed. If this cooling proves to be severe, humanity will be woefully unprepared and starvation could result.
This possibility (probability) concerns me.
8 Successful Predictions from 2002 (these all happened in those European countries that fully embraced global warming mania):
See article at
http://www.apegga.org/Members/Publications/peggs/WEB11_02/kyoto_pt.htm
Kyoto has many fatal flaws, any one of which should cause this treaty to be scrapped.
1. Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.
2. Kyoto focuses primarily on reducing CO2, a relatively harmless gas, and does nothing to control real air pollution like NOx, SO2, and particulates, or serious pollutants in water and soil.
3. Kyoto wastes enormous resources that are urgently needed to solve real environmental and social problems that exist today. For example, the money spent on Kyoto in one year would provide clean drinking water and sanitation for all the people of the developing world in perpetuity.
4. Kyoto will destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs and damage the Canadian economy – the U.S., Canada’s biggest trading partner, will not ratify Kyoto, and developing countries are exempt.
5. Kyoto will actually hurt the global environment – it will cause energy-intensive industries to move to exempted developing countries that do not control even the worst forms of pollution.
6. Kyoto’s CO2 credit trading scheme punishes the most energy efficient countries and rewards the most wasteful. Due to the strange rules of Kyoto, Canada will pay the former Soviet Union billions of dollars per year for CO2 credits.
7. Kyoto will be ineffective – even assuming the overstated pro-Kyoto science is correct, Kyoto will reduce projected warming insignificantly, and it would take as many as 40 such treaties to stop alleged global warming.
8. The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.
[end of excerpts]
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Leif Svalgaard says:
August 10, 2013 at 7:48 am
The behavior of the sun may trigger a new little ice age
The Danish text uses the word ‘kan’ which literally translates as ‘can’ and is somewhat stronger than ‘may’.
……………..
How could that be if the TSI is responsible for only 0.1 C pp?
Or alternatively, is there another unknown solar ‘agent’ effective at work here?
Isn’t science advanced enough to discover its complicity?
Or alternatively, the ‘agent’ is well known to the well informed, but it would be against the interest of the climate establishment to revel its identity and its modus operandy?
Bill Illis says: @ur momisugly August 10, 2013 at 7:46 am
The Ocean is absorbing….
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Take a look at John Kehr’s analysis of the Trenberth Energy Cartoon. The Earth’s Energy Balance: Simple Overview and The Difference between “Forcing” and Heat Transfer
Mike M says: @ur momisugly August 10, 2013 at 8:17 am
Correct but if we rely on government for the science of global cooling we will likely get the same response we are getting for global warming, people giving the answers they believe will best insure their jobs/grants into the future. More and more it seems that our government is the LAST entity we should be trusting for honest information. If not them then WHO?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A lottery for grants?
Some one mentioned using an ancient method of ‘Democracy’ where random people off the street were added to the legislature to prevent the ‘Capture’ by the moneyed elite.
Unfortunately the moneyed elite seem to be able to capture anything and everything from activists to governments.