Lots of people talking about this article in the UK daily Mail:
A near miss for Earth: Solar flare that could have knocked out power, cars and phones came so close two weeks ago
- Earth has narrowly missed electromagnetic pulses caused by solar flares
- If they had hit, the pulses could have knocked out electrical equipment over continent-scale regions
An electromagnetic pulse that could have knocked electrical equipment over continent-scale regions barely missed Earth two weeks ago, it has been revealed.
Source: (h/t Jack Simmons)
But, not so fast…NASA’s Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com writes:
Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July.
The report is erroneous.
The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society.
There is even a recent SciFi movie revolving around the idea which seems to have gone straight to video:
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CodeTech says:
“There is very good evidence that a falling population will be devastating to economies and human productivity. I’m glad I won’t be around to see the wars that will follow.”
A *falling* population will be devastating!?
That sounds unlikely: its need for goods and services will decrease as the population decreases. Why would that hurt the economy or productivity?
If the fall in population is gradual, the change to the economy will be gradual, only it will be a matter of dismantling the unneeded factories and removing the concrete, rather than paving things over as we do now.
And pollution will be less with a smaller population. People will lead heathier lives, both mentally and physically.
Joel Renfrew says:
August 4, 2013 at 8:20 am (replying to)
Renfrew’s reply
You blithering idiot! What the Hades degree do you have and when will you ask for a refund of what the taxpayer’s paid for your so-called education? ( I am operating under the assumption that no one who could have written a stupid statement is actually educated, or is knowledgeable enough to have taught themselves anything. Somebody else obviously paid for those pieces of paper hanging on your wall.)
You NOW have about 20% of the population ALREADY PAST their productive ages of 20-65. Even more are too young to work. Those older people must be killed in your “ideal” economy of “a gradually reducing economy” and dismantling of unneeded concrete and factories, sicne TODAY’S workers are already too few to pay for their own retirement, the retirement and feeding and healthcare of TODAY’S workers and seniors and children. Social security programs and federal healthcare giveraways are going to be running out of money as soon as 2019 to 2021 – because these welfare programs were writtten on the sociast models in the 1930’s of a rare life past age 60 and a worker to retiree ratio of 8 to 1. (And THAT ratio was based on a civilized productive country – no the world’s average dirt-to-death society of squalor and need that you prefer.) Unneeded farms too? or just “unneeded” factories? Unneeded power plants – or do want these seniors and children to die in the dark and cold freezing as they die of thirst and poverty?
Gradual decline? That “gradual” decline would begin immediately since you cannot pay for the retirees and children people you need to kill – it is going on NOW as you kill the world’s poor with a deliberate policy of denying them their chance for low-cost fossil energy and better food, clothing, shelter, power, water, and sewage as “fight” CO2.
RACookPE1978 says:
“You blithering idiot! …. Those older people must be killed….or do want these seniors and children to die in the dark and cold freezing as they die of thirst and poverty?…..as you kill the world’s poor with a deliberate policy of denying them their chance for low-cost fossil energy and better food, clothing, shelter, power, water, and sewage as “fight” CO2.”
It is too bad Sit Ins and Power To The People rallys are no longer
in vogue; you would be a star at such gatherings.
Tom in Florida says:
August 4, 2013 at 7:27 am
I do not have the knowledge to agree or disagree with you but a statement such as that is a real BS flag raiser.
Thanks for the observation.
I used data to 160+ years to 2011 (as I have it), another 18 months isn’t going to be a decider. (see one of my posts above)
There are 3 steps in the graph, it is possible that another step up may be required, but any period shorter than 15-20 years may not be meaningful.
On two occasions correlation is reversed, most notably around 1930 and 1955, both of these are just under 10 years long, so it wouldn’t be odd if it happens again..
From the above can be concluded that extending data by 2 years can not demonstrate anything that has not been already seen.
Dr. Svalgaard as a scientist understands that, but if he wants to use 2 years of data to prove it phoney, he would have done it.
I do this for fun of it and gave you my honest view, it may be wrong but it is not ‘BS’ as I understand meaning of the phrase.
For the reason that in the past your comments directed at me, even if critical, were polite, else I would not reply to a BS qualification,.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2013 at 9:09 am
I used data to 160+ years to 2011 (as I have it), another 18 months isn’t going to be a decider. (see one of my posts above)
This is where the phoniness comes in. From the time in 2005 when Ap was greater than 15, there is 5.2 years to the end of 1002, so you could have plotted the five year average up to the end of 2011. [it was zero by your definition], so you should have entered a 4 as the last point. As that would destroy your claim you didn’t [in fact you hid the decline].
Vuk, I know you are offended when Gore dismisses the graph that suggests temperature rises before CO2 does. And you would hate anyone who shifts that data, essentially saying that there must be some other reason for the “chicken before the egg” appearance, but since it doesn’t matter “here is a graph that has been shifted to prove our catastrophic theme”.
In what way is your shifted Ap/temperature graph somehow better than that of the AGWers and their “CO2 causes temperature rise” shifted cough-hack-gag graphs?
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2013 at 9:09 am
I used data to 160+ years to 2011 (as I have it), another 18 months isn’t going to be a decider. (see one of my posts above)
Even without the extra 18 months you still ‘hide the decline’. This is how the Ap graph should look like http://www.leif.org/research/Vuk-Failing-13.png
If you want to overplot the temperature with your assumed CO2 contribution removed, then you remove it from the temperature curve, not adding it to the Ap curve. So,as I said ‘phony’.
From the time in 2005 when Ap was greater than 15, there is 5.2 years to the end of 2011
Vuk: this is what the honest version of your graph would look like http://www.leif.org/research/Vuk-Failing-14.png
I orange I have plotted average Ap without removing values below [the arbitrary] 15. It doesn’t make much difference. If you want to remove the CO2 contribution you should do that on the temperature curve. Similarly, if you want to shift data then shift the temperature curve since presumably Ap would precede the temperature variation if there is any relation..
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 2, 2013 at 5:47 pm
Since telephone exchanges all around the world continued to function and only this one was knocked out, I suggest that a solar storm may not have been the cause.
oldfossil says:
August 4, 2013 at 10:37 am
only this one was knocked out, I suggest that a solar storm may not have been the cause.
The effect of a solar storm is felt most strongly at high latitudes [and can be localized] and at that time there not many telephone exchanges at high latitudes, but there were reports of damage elsewhere.
““The disturbance was reported by cable to have burned out a telephone station in Sweden. It may have contributed to a short circuit in the New York Central signal system, followed by a fire in the Fifty-seventh street signal tower [which, quoting a Times story on May 16, left “the residents of many Park Avenue apartment houses … coughing and choking from the suffocating vapors which spread for blocks.”]. Brewster, N.Y., May 16. – A fire which destroyed the Central New England Railroad station, here, Saturday night, was caused by the Aurora Borealis, in the opinion of the
railroad officials. Telegraph Operator Hatch says he was driven away from his instrument by a flare of flame which enveloped the switchboard and ignited the building. The loss was $6,000.”
To those who were perhaps offended that I inadvertently may have appeared to accidentally have criticized your recommended policies of population control by edict and deliberately restricting population and energy growth and freedom.
Please pardon my earlier rant against those who favor these type of enviro’s and their ilk.
it was uncalled for and demeaning.
Environmentalists and those extremists who call for political positions limiting the earth’s population should be able to force that position, and their religion, on all others.
But, first, every politician who votes for such policies should lead by example and themselves be castrated. (Or merely sterilized, but preferably castrated. castration will reduce their desire to obtain the sexual benefits of high orifice (er, office) and the pleasures of partying and international conventions and travel.)
Even more important, before any voter can elect such a politician, every voter requesting a US democratic ballet (or a liberal party ballot in, for example, Europe or Australia) needs to show evidence he or she has already been sterilized.)
/sarcasm. That gaping hole between a liberal and the real world.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2013 at 9:09 am
“I do this for fun of it and gave you my honest view, it may be wrong but it is not ‘BS’ as I understand meaning of the phrase.
For the reason that in the past your comments directed at me, even if critical, were polite, else I would not reply to a BS qualification,.”
Vuk,
I was not referring to your work as BS, as I stated I am not knowledgeable enough to do that, however when someone appears to be avoiding a criticism by claiming themselves “not interested” in those criticisms I find that more often than not they are in an uncomfortable place and the excuse of being “not interested” is what I call BS.
Hi Tom
Thanks for your note. I don’t understand what is going there either, but I look at data and then if anything odd is found I express a view.
Miss Pamela I shall address Dr. Svalgaard’s objections further down.
Now I am back indoors from the bright sunshine and the fumbling-fingers i-pad to my trusted keyboard, let me add a short note or two.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2013 at 9:39 am
This is how the Ap graph should look like http://www.leif.org/research/Vuk-Failing-13.png
Well doc, that graph is a pitiful demonstration of if not you want us to see, then at least of your charting (dis)ability.
That graph should look like this:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ApGLT.htm
There is a couple of years drop in correlation at the end, but that has happened before, notably in 1935 and 1955. Another 10-20 years of date is required to see what this section might look like.
I shall leave it to kind Dr. S. to explain how temperature variability in a no way can be related to the geomagnetic signal, and it is all due to that ‘horrible’ CO2.
If I was a man of suspicious mind, I would assume that Dr.S knew all along what graph would look like, but preferred that I should highlight the global land temperature decadal oscillations to the geomagnetic impact.
After all Ap index is just another measure of another type of the solar magnetic activity in the similar manner the TSI is.
vukcevic says:
August 4, 2013 at 1:40 pm
That graph should look like this: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ApGLT.htm
You should not apply offsets to Ap, but apply them to the temperature if you believe they temperature rise has been caused by CO2 as you indicated before [interestingly you have now omitted that tidbit from the heading]
There is a couple of years drop in correlation at the end
There is no correlation. Whatever you see is made up by suitable shifting of the data back and forth. And in any event you should shift the temperature curve and not the [presumed] causative Ap-curve.
why temperature variability in a no way can be related to the geomagnetic signal … After all Ap index is just another measure of another type of the solar magnetic activity in the similar manner the TSI is.
As I have explained many times we expect a solar cycle variation of about 0.1 C due to the changing magnetic field of the sun as manifested in TSI and with no [nonphysical and nonsensical shifts back and forth].
To sum up: your graph is phoney [even more so than before]. It is sad that you pollute WUWT with your nonsense.
Vuk, you seem to disregard any ideas related to the highly variable intrinsic factors related to Earthly parameters. Why? Consider the entire time it takes a suspended molecule to travers the upper and lower overturning oceanic currents from its starting point back to its starting point. It takes decades. Even longer if it gets trapped in a circular pool. And consider the suspended molecule in semi-permanent atmospheric pressure systems and their slow migration from one pattern to another. That migration takes decades from starting point to starting point. These systems are FAR more powerful in terms of energy required to send temperatures from one status quo to another and then back again.
You disregard intrinsic factors at the obvious peril of your “solar butterfly created” temperature trend speculation. As do the CO2 folks.
Our understanding of solar dynamo is in rapid change mode. This is Janet G Luhmann’s fantastic presentation at the AGU conference 2012
Are they seeing a quadrapole on the sun? Sometimes it operates in what appears to be dipolar mode. Then at times LIKE NOW it appears to be operating in its equatorial mode. Stuck between quadrants..
I did not do this presentation any justice by pulling out the comments below.. but they do make an important point about the current solar polar configuration.
From the AGU Fall 2012 video presentation
Parker Lecuture
Janet G. Luhmann
Senior Fellow Space Sciences Lab., U Ca. Berkeley
8:54
What Dominates the Heliosphere
..And so, there is this issue of there seemingly unanchored fields that are convected to the top and yet are so important to what we see in the heliosphere.
Even though you don’t see polar fields very well in these full disk magnetograms. Ah these never the less control what we think of as our solar field polarity of the solar polarity cycle.
20:43
So something we our community still have to get our minds around, is how does this happen?
Where does this polar field actually ah.. anchor?
I think is still a very important question that needs to be answered.
25:00
pseudo streamers ubiquitous this cycle for reason that we are till trying to figure out.
..But you can also see, that there is much more than a solar dipole present..
..The sun is not a dipole. We need to take that into account when we look at it.
..The open field history over the solar cycle can also be gotten.
29:40
..What you find is, for an implication, for a full half of the cycle, if not more,
YOU HAVE NO POLAR CORONAL HOLE WIND AT ALL!
Your getting all your winds at virtually mid and low latitudes.
..So the old picture of solar wind that existed back in Parkers time.. I think is, taken a wide turn of a sort………………..
Large conductors are measured in kcmil, thousands of circular mils.
1 kcmil = 0.5067 mm^2
A 500 kcmil conductor is 500,000 circular mil
You can put 500 amps in a 1000 kcmil cable (1 inch diameter), or 500 mm2 cross section of conductor. (It is less than linear, a 500 kcml cable (250 mm2) can take about 350 amps.)
The Trans Alaskan Pipeline is 48 inches outer diameter with a wall thickness of about 0.5 inches. That is about 75 square inches of steel. Which converts to a conductor equivalent to 96,000 kcmil or about 45,000 mm2. So 2000 amps is probably less than 10% of the pipeline steel’s current capacity.
http://www.alyeska-pipe.com/TAPS/PipelineFacts
http://www.ihiconnectors.com/AWG%20wire%20sizes.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_mil
http://www.conversion-website.com/area/circular_mil_to_square_inch.html
Carla says:
August 4, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Our understanding of solar dynamo is in rapid change mode….
YOU HAVE NO POLAR CORONAL HOLE WIND AT ALL!
Your getting all your winds at virtually mid and low latitudes.
With all due respect to Janet, this is no news at all. That has been traditional wisdom for decades. In our 1978 paper on this http://www.leif.org/research/The%20Strength%20of%20the%20Sun%27s%20Polar%20Fields.pdf we pointed out that “the polar cap flux is almost sufficient to provide the interplanetary magnetic flux. With additional flux entering the solar wind from low latitude magnetic sectors it seems that the interplanetary magnetic flux is easily accounted for at least when the polar fields are strong near sunspot maximum. At time shortly after sunspot maximum [when the polar fields go away] the eqautorial sectors must supply all the necessary flux to maintain the observed constancy of the interplanetary magnetic field”
@ur momisugly Joel Renfrew says:
August 4, 2013 at 8:56 am
What is “too bad” is that you don’t even realize how grossly off base you are, and how right RACookPE1978 is, and that he’s simply responding in a bit of shock and outrage than anyone could be so blind to the horrible economic effects of an aging demographic as we are currently seeing begin in much of the developed world. See if perhaps the article below gets you started. From the International Monetary Fund: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/new061011a.htm
Supporting Aging Populations as Demographics Shift
Marina Primorac, IMF Survey online, June 10, 2011
**Massive demographic shift has far-reaching implications for global economy
**Countries need to rethink how to support growing elderly population
**Governments are at different levels of preparation to meet retirees’ needs
Demographic changes are threatening the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young, say Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason in Finance & Development (F&D) magazine.
According to their article, the world’s population is projected to rise from 7 billion this year to over 9 billion in 2050. But low fertility combined with the fact that people are living longer means that 1.25 billion elderly (ages 60+) and 1 billion working-age adults will be added to the global population by 2050, while the number of people younger than 25 will hold steady at 3 billion.
The dramatic aging of many countries’ populations has worrying implications for both policymakers and individuals, prompting a reevaluation of how countries will support the growing elderly cohort…. (continued online)
Rational Db8: What, if anything, are you proposing as a solution?
@ur momisugly Joel Renfrew says: August 4, 2013 at 5:32 am
The reason people respond to the “reduce population drastically” people this way is because the only way to significantly reduce populations quickly is by murdering large numbers, or forceful mass sterilization – and both options are extremely offensive to us, because we actually value human life, and it seems those advocating relatively quick reduction of population numbers do not seem to value human life any to speak of, and seem to think those options would be acceptable ‘for the [supposed] greater good.’ And they don’t even bother to look into how such changes would effect the economy, standard of living, poverty, starvation, etc., rates.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 4, 2013 at 1:56 pm
………..
Ok, I take your point; if a dc value is added to Ap, in order to avoid confusion that portion of the graph is now relabelled as F(Ap).
The object is to probe if there is global temperature related to the Ap index, thus GT values have to be preserved in the original and recognizable form, I might do it the other way too, but holiday is looming close.
CO2 bit is still on the original graph (see one of the earlier links), but it is followed by question mark. It is unlikely to be CO2 for the simple reason that its change is gradual.
It is more likely to be related to the geomagnetic jerks, since some of these are represented by a sudden reversal of direction
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/image018.jpg
which are close or coincidental to change in F(Ap) function, but are eliminated in the way Ap data is calculated.
@ur momisugly CodeTech says: August 4, 2013 at 6:19 am
I can’t believe you would say such a thing. Most of the 55 or so who died were firemen who went onto the roof to fight the fire, and others who also took extremely heroic action to try to mitigate the consequences. For example, several who died tried to manually lower the control rods into place, or restore feedwater flow. One helicopter crashed killing a few people, but it wasn’t from the radiation or fires, it was because they clipped a cable with the rotor. No one was “standing watching the pretty colors of the burning graphite.” And many were heroes by pretty much anyone’s definition.
Miss Pamela
Molecular thermodynamics is ‘the extreme danger no go area’ for me. I only venture in the parts of the forest where I can stumble out, bruised but still able to take another foray.
No I do not think geomagnetics is necessarily the direct cause as such, more kind of a friendly proxy. Not convinced ? well look at this
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NV.htm