Lots of people talking about this article in the UK daily Mail:
A near miss for Earth: Solar flare that could have knocked out power, cars and phones came so close two weeks ago
- Earth has narrowly missed electromagnetic pulses caused by solar flares
- If they had hit, the pulses could have knocked out electrical equipment over continent-scale regions
An electromagnetic pulse that could have knocked electrical equipment over continent-scale regions barely missed Earth two weeks ago, it has been revealed.
Source: (h/t Jack Simmons)
But, not so fast…NASA’s Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com writes:
Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July.
The report is erroneous.
The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society.
There is even a recent SciFi movie revolving around the idea which seems to have gone straight to video:
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Carla says:
August 3, 2013 at 9:15 am
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I was addressing his “solar-cycles/magnetics = climate/temperature-change” replies, which I & many others have passed over hundreds of times.
beng says:
August 3, 2013 at 7:49 am
The Military Channel showed some EM-pulse testing. A modern car was placed under an EM-pulse apparatus to simulate a high-altitude nuke blast. The car stopped, but after a few minutes restarted OK. Several different car models reacted similarly. Of course they couldn’t simulate the effects on long stretches of AC-power grids — the real question.
Obviously, a car w/o an operating gas station in range won’t work for long.
As was seen in NY and NJ after Sandy last year.
Joel Renfrew says: August 3, 2013 at 9:45 am
cba says:
> “There is nothing wrong with large populations. If the pressure
> gets too great, we expand and migrate.
Where to?
> There are no cities under the
> sea or even in most of the land area. Never mind lunar colonies,
> martian colonies, asteroid mining, or L5 society style
> megasatellites.
Even if we had the technology to dwell in those places, who in his
right mind would trade a life on a lovely planet like Earth, with
its oceans, trees, flowers, mountains, for a nightmarish life in a
cave on the moon or mars, or on an asteroid, or in an orbiting tin
can!?
It is hard to understand how you can think of such things as other
than nightmare choices.
—————————————————————
Yes, earth is a nice planet, but the various governments are intent on sliding into socialist utopia (aka hell). Whether they want to escape to freedom, to prepare for an asteroid impact, or because they want to push the new frontier, there are plenty of sane people who would welcome the opportunity to move off world. If living in a cave and conducting all your commerce in tunnels is so terrible, then why do so many people live in big cities and do just that? I know New Yorkers who are PROUD of being able to live without going outdoors.
Personally, I would jump at the chance to give up all I have to move to a struggling Mars colony. The meek shall inherit the earth while the adventurous shall go to the stars. But that’s just my personal opinion. Or restated: “The Earth is the cradle of mankind. But we can’t live in the cradle forever.” I believe that was A. C. Clarke Finally, for a readable speculation on civilization after a major comet strike, I recommend Lucifer’s Hammer, by Niven and Pournelle.
I just got corrected. That “cradle of mankind” quote is from Konstantin Tsiolkovsky.
The greater threat to satellites? Tin whisker (and other material!) ‘growth’ in the zero G environment …
There are some of us who have rated EMP threats as being over-rated; to understand why would take introducing a number of subjects laymen are not normally exposed-to in the popular press …
.
The thinking is ‘the effects’ by the war-planners (and scare-mongers, rent-seekers, consultants-in-search-of-gig, et al) is overblown; let’s take a look at a paper written by somebody who has taken a closer look at this issue:
Effect of the FAST NUCLEAR ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE on the Electric Power Grid Nationwide: A Different View (pdf)
by Mario Rabinowitz
Electric Power Research Institute
Here is the abstract:
Bolding mine.
.
For all you know there may have been a primary (say, at 14 KV) to secondary (208/240/120V etc.) arc take place (induced by lightning, a nearby a strike even) out on the ‘pole’ or line somewhere; there is little one can do at that point (think: Plasma discharge ‘arcs’ are basically “short circuits”) …
.
Bzzzt. What stops a high intensity magnetic field?
(So-called Faraday Cages are E-field effective only!!!! An oft-repeated misuse/mis-prescription by layman which doesn’t change the real meaning of the term. Is it one of those things that must be used to seem like one is knowledgeable in the area of Electro-Magnetics?)
.
‘Smoke’ and semaphore are also EMP resistant; The Soviets at the time had copied Korean-war vintage gear we had fielded in that past era and were unable to fabricate solid-state (transistors) as we progressed away from tubes; the small, “pencil” tubes have a whole host of other frailties and don’t lend themselves to high-density integration into modern (for the time) RADAR-targeting, IFF or ‘scrambling’ equipment either. The presence of vacuum tubes was purely a result of having no other viable technology at the time. A ‘comm’ radio is a lot less sophisticated than the other systems aboard a fighter … and unless you had access to the (no doubt) secret analysis report we don’t really know what the highest level of ‘sophistication’ really was nor if any of their technology (or capability though perhaps *crudely* implemented) exceeded ours …
.
ONLY if you happen to ‘gas’ all the personnel operating the few dozen control centers that actively *supervise* the operation of generating and transmission systems around the country. One of the watched-for events now-a-days ARE solar flares (and other solar events).
What? You thought these systems operated statically (after everyone left at 5 PM)? News flash: There are personnel on-duty 24 hrs a day actively engaged in assuring a stable power system …
PS. The key to (the grid) ‘surviving’ is “Islanding”. I leave it to the reader to research ‘the why’ …
beng says:
August 3, 2013 at 8:04 am
Magnetics have zero effect on a TSI
Hi beng
An interesting observation, but is it correct?
Wang, Lean, Sheeley In this study, we have used a magnetic flux transport model to explore the long-term relationship between sunspot activity, the total photospheric flux, the open flux, and solar irradiance (my bold,) or as we know it TSI http://sun.stanford.edu/LWS_Dynamo_2009/61797.web.pdf
i.e. if sun was not magnetically active, it is unlikely that TSI would be very variable.
The Ap index I used in my graph is directly related to the same solar magnetic activity, therefore I see no harm or prejudice in making a link between Ap index (variability is solar generated) and the climate.
The Ap index is just another measure of the solar energetic output reaching the Earth, as the TSI is in another form.
There aren’t many branches of science were any further research or for that mater discussion is superfluous and solar-climate science is far from conclusive.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 3, 2013 at 6:23 am
……..
Dr. Svalgaard says its phoney, I explained here how it was done , so Dr.S or anyone else can reproduce it. Many may not agree with method implemented, but there is nothing phoney about it if anyone can reproduce it.
I write what I find in the data usually result of many people’s observations, measurements or otherwise effort, over decades or centuries, left to the later generations to utilise for further research.
It doesn’t bother me too greatly if someone may not like it, call it phoney, numerology, astrology or any other ‘ology’ you can think of.
Critical comments are always welcome, especially when supported by facts. Approving comments are appreciated but not sought after.
Thanks to all who do find time to read or look at what I post.
Apologies, that was far too long,
Termed a “Temporary upset”; this can be induced by placing a 4 or 5 Watt HT (e.g. a Motorola HandieTalkie) close the wiring which routes to the ECM/ECU (engine control module) while it is ‘keyed’ (put into transmite mode). DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME OR ANYWHERE ELSE! This could result in engine failure and worse (including but not limited to air bag deployment, an angry friend, wife or girlfriend. I take NO responsibility whatsoever even if this test involves a rental or loaner car!)
A *safe* way of demonstrating this effect without owning a 4 Watt HT is this: Open your PC’s main cover, take a vacuum cleaner with a longish cord and route two or 3 turns of the power cord in and near the MB (esp. near the CPU and memory), now ‘cycle’ the power on the test vacuum cleaner several times by simply plugging it in (with power SW on) and un-plugging it into a powered wall socket … said target PC may or may not exhibit a ‘temporary’ upset when the vacuum is unplugged (note also the brief ‘arc flash’ seen at the wall socket when the vacuum cleaner is unplugged may be coincident with the ‘temporary upset’ event exhibited by the PC under test) …
.
The UK Daily Mail would have done better to rename the fake event with an appropriate fake new name such as “Ho Lee Fuk,” or “Bang Ding Ow.” I mean this in the nicest possible way
Hi Jim
appreciate your comments especially in regards to the frailties of valave componenets. No I didn’t have access to secret documents. Think I read it in Omni ( lightweight science mgazine of the 1980’s). The article ended that US planes were having their microcircuits hardened starting with the F-14 Eagle.
Your obervations about semaphore and smoke would be complementary to the use of loclaised EMP on the battlefield. One of the principles of warfare is to disable the enemies ability to fight. If you know that your are destroying electonics you do use more primitive means.
And yes the USSR was technically behind, but it was also the first to launch a satellite and the first to put a man in orbit even with their industrial deficencies. Their philosopsohy semed to be if it works use it to its full potenetial, if we don’t have it then we copy it ( Concordski the prime example)
This article speaks for itself. Was doing a search on how far south of the pole, aurora have been seen.
…the aurora of 4 February 1872 was seen worldwide, and that in the Caribbean, Egypt, Southern Africa, the Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and China these observations extended as low as 20° magnetic latitude…
Low-latitude auroras: The great aurora of 4 February 1872
S.M. Silverman
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682608000989
Abstract
The aurora of 4 February 1872 was comparable to, and perhaps even greater than, that of 1/2 September 1859. In this paper we show that the aurora of 4 February 1872 was seen worldwide, and that in the Caribbean, Egypt, Southern Africa, the Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and China these observations extended as low as 20° magnetic latitude. Observations are also available in the north to as far as the vicinity of the north magnetic pole. This aurora is then comparable to, or greater than, in geographical extent, and in equatorward closeness, to that of 2 September 1859. Both must now be included as the only known members in the class of greatest auroras of the past few hundred years. For the 1859 aurora, however, there is no accepted observation at a lower magnetic latitude than about 20°. By contrast, several observations for the aurora of 4 February 1872 are reported at magnetic latitudes of the order of 10°, and one probable observation at an even lower magnetic latitude of about 3°. This paper presents a survey and discussion of these observations.
Was there one similar in the late 1950’s auroras seen around 20 deg. magnetic latitude?
The potential problem lies in the GIC (geo-magnetically induced currents) with large levels that overheat and destroy the electrical distribution transformers and they do not need to be powered at the time of event.
A large event means 6-20 months awaiting replacement transformers and that would be bad news for large geographical areas.
Jtom says:
August 2, 2013 at 7:50 pm
… and when a Nuke Plant shuts down. It’s not just the loss of power from that station that is of primary concern, it’s the support equipment. Things like cooling pumps that keep storage containers circulating. Think Fukishima. It will all be dependent on how the system is designed, but it is a concern. Yeah, Fukishima encountered a Black Swan (Taleb Style), and the reactors themselves suffered little damage, but the auxiliary equipment took it in the shorts and did not come back. How many systems in the US have such vulnerability? (Not just Nuke Plants, medical, chemical and biological containment systems too)
Yeah, Fukishima encountered a Black Swan (Taleb Style), and the reactors themselves suffered little damage, but the auxiliary equipment took it in the shorts and did not come back. How many systems in the US have such vulnerability?
+++++++
US plants have battery back ups that can be manually rolled around to where energy is needed. They can maintain circulation to the cooling enough to prevent boil off.
Jim, you seem to have a lot of faith in people moniroring the grid and doing exactly the correct thing when multiple failures hit simultaneouly, but exactly what can they do when there are enough independent failures to bring down the grid? Regardless of how good they are, they can’t reroute circuits when there is nothing left that can handle the load. A more basic question, though, is how vulnerable are their own systems for detecting and analysing grid anamolies?They won”t be able to do much if their own systems suffer failures.
What is it about this thread that attracts the ‘MALenTHUSiasts who want to kill off several billion people to end up with 1B max. Who did they have in mind. Perhaps they would submit to a random selection of candidates. There would only be a 5 in 6 chance of dying. As to the areal size of the “problem” : ~90 billion people would fit into Lake Superior, each with a square metre to tread water in and you’d still have the other Great Lakes left over!
Let me help you Mals solve this. Your dream isn’t going to happen so get over it – you’ve wasted much of your life with this angst. Probably the “problem” is closer to home, arising out of unhappy family dynamics.
”
Joel Renfrew says:
August 3, 2013 at 9:45 am
cba says:
>
> “There is nothing wrong with large populations. If the pressure
> gets too great, we expand and migrate.
Where to?
> The occultic whack jobs
> and malthusians seem to thing that 1 B is too many and the target
> should be 500 million.
Sounds good to me.
> They should have all the credibility of a convicted mass
> murderer and any actions they attempt along those lines should
> be met with the full force of the law.
Why do you think it is against the law to advocate a reduction of
the world’s population?
> There are no cities under the
> sea or even in most of the land area. Never mind lunar colonies,
> martian colonies, asteroid mining, or L5 society style
> megasatellites.
Even if we had the technology to dwell in those places, who in his
right mind would trade a life on a lovely planet like Earth, with
its oceans, trees, flowers, mountains, for a nightmarish life in a
cave on the moon or mars, or on an asteroid, or in an orbiting tin
can!?
It is hard to understand how you can think of such things as other
than nightmare choices.
> A quick calculation yields the fact that Texas
> alone could house the world’s current population in suburban style
> average density.
Wow, that is certainly something to wish for. Problem solved, right?
It is like saying 2+2 = 4 to say that a lower population is better
than a larger one. It might be difficult or impossible to attain
the lower population, but that is no reason to react to the idea
as if it is criminal or insane, and then to come out with the
really insane ideas of migrating to an asteroid or a tin can.
”
It’s not against the law to say. It is to act and prepare for genocide. Considering most of these lunes are idiots of the highest order, they should be put somewhere where they cannot harm themselves and others.
On the very long term, this beautiful planet is doomed along with all life on it. It’s also possible though unlikely that the planet or most life on it are doomed in the short term. Such catastrophes occur infrequently but it’s just as likely to happen tomorrow morning as it is to happen any other morning over the next 100 million years.
As for preferring to live on Earth, there are places here you would move anywhere else to get away from and who says that living in a tin can has to be horrible and squalid?
Since you like the idea of a world population of under 500 million what do you think your odds of making the cut and being allowed to live in this new Reich that will last a thousand years? Random chance says you have a 90% chance of being exterminated. What are the odds that these societal engineering idiots will pick you? What are the odds these idiots know enough and understand enough about society to even make intellegent choices? Obama’s mentor and confidant, david (the unrepentent domestic terrorist) ayers once stated that exterminating 20 million americans to convert the country to a communist dystopia would be acceptable in his mind.
What do you think of the prospect of moving to another continent was like a few hundred years back. Australia was a penal colony. So were some of the settlements in north america. Some were idealistic socialist utopias being experimented with – until the inhabitants were faced with dumping the stupid ideas and doing what worked. Would you choose to be carted off from London to Australia over being hanged or confined to debtor’s prison?
Besides, we don’t need self important retards to save the world from mankind and bring about some mythical garden of edan or heaven on Earth. Nature deals with problems like genuine overpopulation all the time.
cba: First, Malthus was proved wrong a long time ago.
“expand & migrate”: Well, there’s always Siberia and the Australian outback…..
Texas: area: 268,820 square miles; world population: 7.1 billion; packed density 26411 people/mi^2; = 26411 people/27 878 400 square feet = 0.00095 ppl/ft^2 = 1055 ft^2/person.
Hong Kong population density: 6620 ppl/km^2 = 6620 ppl/10 763 910 ft^2 = 0.0006 ppl/ft^2 = 1625 ft^2/person
Hong Kong is what we might consider a really crowded city. Besides that, think of the sewage infrastructure – and the food supply, energy &c.
The reason so much of the Earth is uninhabited (like Siberia and the Australian outback) is because it’s uninhabitable. Extreme heat, extreme cold, dry desert, tropical rain forest, millions of species of critters, small and large, all trying to kill us.
“… against the law to advocate a reduction of the world’s population?”
It depends on the method. WW III would certainly do it, but advocating that might be seen by some tender-hearted folks as immoral.
Technology saved us from Malthusian doom over the last 100 years or so. There’s no reason to expect that it won’t keep on doing that. The only thing standing in the way is the crowd of Luddites who see AGW as the “planet-killer”, and the only way to prevent that is for everybody to give them all their money, and eventually live in mud huts. Except for the elite, who know so much more than we do and therefore will be entitled to live as they always have.
vukcevic says:
August 3, 2013 at 12:29 pm
Dr. Svalgaard says its phoney,
There are several reasons for this. We shall perhaps take them one at a time. The 1st one: You say that the graph shows a 5-yr running mean. If so, here would be 2.5 years of ‘missing’ data at each end of the Ap curve. But there are 10-yr blanks.
For those who’ve mentioned nuclear plants – the primary equipment is all within the containment domes – which are in effect very large faraday cages because they are all rebar reinforced concrete. You’d lose the switchyard, but not primary equipment and pumps. On losing offsite power when the swichyard blew, he plant would immediately trip (scram, shut down), and the emergency diesels would kick in.
In other words, sorry to disappoint all those doomsayers looking for some sensationalism, but no Fukushima.