Lots of people talking about this article in the UK daily Mail:
A near miss for Earth: Solar flare that could have knocked out power, cars and phones came so close two weeks ago
- Earth has narrowly missed electromagnetic pulses caused by solar flares
- If they had hit, the pulses could have knocked out electrical equipment over continent-scale regions
An electromagnetic pulse that could have knocked electrical equipment over continent-scale regions barely missed Earth two weeks ago, it has been revealed.
Source: (h/t Jack Simmons)
But, not so fast…NASA’s Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com writes:
Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July.
The report is erroneous.
The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society.
There is even a recent SciFi movie revolving around the idea which seems to have gone straight to video:
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“…. just people getting more crazy.”
Another strong storm hit in May 1921:
From http://www.tjugofyra7.se/msb/Arkiv/Avdelningar/Nyheter/Svar-solstorm-drabbade-Karlstad-1921/
2012-04-20
Severe solar storm hit Karlstad 1921
One of the most severe effects of solar storms in Sweden hit the telephone station in Karlstad the night before Whitsunday in 1921. The station, then one of the first in Sweden, caught fire and the damages were made worse by the destruction of the system in place to alert the fire department.
During Easter 1921 the Northern Hemisphere was hit by a severe solar storm. Already the night before Whitsunday the telephone station in Karlstad had suffered disturbances when fuses and circuit breakers had burned out and tripped.
Around 2 am at Whitsunday night the 15th May [1921] a neighbor watched the wires and cables leading to the telephone station begin to glow, soon causing the station to catch fire. A policeman on patrol tried to activate a fire alarm installation, but since that did not had any reaction, a cyclist was sent to alert the fire station.
The fire in the telephone station caused all fire alarm installations to malfunction causing confusion at the fire station. The message from the cyclist brought clarity and action, but still with 20 minutes delay. The destruction was great and the next day the director of the Telephone Line Technical Service, F.R.Fredericksson from Goteborg arrived with the news that the disturbances were felt everywhere in the Swedish Telephone Net, especially in Svealand, but nowhere as severe as in Karlstad.
The Telegraph Company [who was in charge of the Telephone Network] assured everybody that no resources would be spared. Additional personnel from Goteborg and Orebro were called in to work 24/7 in three shifts. A temporary telephone station was set up within a few days, but initially only the most important customers were connected.
The newspapers in Karlstad followed the repair work from day to day and reported that businesses were paralyzed. The fire led to severe problems for banks and the Chamber of Commerce was talking about ‘Force Majeure’. Every day, businesses and banks would announce on the newspapers’ front page that their phone number was again ready for use.
The fire and the damages due to the solar storm became an expensive event for the Telegraph Company. The cost was computed to reach 200,000 kronor and, according to the Nya Wermland paper, the station was insured for 177,000 kronor, but when the insurance was up for renewal on April 1st it had been allowed to lapse as a cost-cutting measure.
———
These storms are real and dangerous
“During Easter 1921 …” should, of course, be “Over Pentecost 1921 …”
@Leif, agreed.
It isn’t a matter of “if” we’ll get another Carrington type event, it is simply a matter of when. If we aren’t prepared, we’ll be back into the pre-industrial era in a few seconds.
At some point such an event will occur. At some point a major asteroid impact will occur. In the short term the lesson is : Don’t believe anything in the Daily Mail without checking a reliable source.
I for one would not mind losing my cell phone connectivity along with ready computer access. I yearn for the days of a party line and a big black heavy phone along with a smelly inky newspaper to read. Ready access to connectivity and news has raised my stress levels immeasurably.
If it happens it will be interesting to see how the greenies react. they seem to want us to be in the preindustrial era anyway.
The problem is that anyone who needed to buy anything with a credit or debit card would probably be truly screwed.
I wonder how long it would take the electronic banking system to get back up to speed?
As sure as the “If” should be “when” will be the claims that it would not have been as bad if it weren’t for the nasty CO2 in the air.
This threat is real & very dangerous, better to spend money protecting our grid vs. CAGW protection. Lots of reading material here: http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/category/homeland-security/infrastructure-and-emp/
Hey, that one’s right up there in scientific realism ratings with the “Absolute Zero” movie!
Loving to scare people who love to be scared (or don’t know better than being)
The one thing that made the 1859(?) event “special” was the fact that telegraphs were a brand new technology. They actually has single wires, no breaks, transformers, or suppressors, from New York to Kansas City, many hundreds of miles, and this is what can generate quite a d.c. jolt in a magnetic storm, it’s the unbroken length of the wire in a varying magnetic field, not really a.c. but slow varying d.c.. As far as something as small as a cars, or personal computer, or a watches ceasing to work is one huge stretch of the imagination to me. If you know how electricity, magnetic fields strengths, frequencies and distances are related just calculate it for yourself and see if you think this is as dangerous as many portray it.
As for the Montreal transformers that has past problems a few decades ago it is much the same scenario with huge transforms unprotected (and very sensitive) for large stray d.c. fluxes over long hauls I do believe most power companies learned a good lesson there and have since protected their equipment.
Seems this topic keeps popping up here at wuwt regularly and this seems about as bad as the haarp hype.
Maybe I’m wrong but that is how I view this Carrington topic. If I am incorrect and power companies have all left themselves wide-open for huge losses let me know specifically where and why (preferably in the physics and numbers).
But I admit, this is an interesting topic if nothing else but to dismiss the misunderstanding.
Recent analysis http://www.leif.org/EOS/swsv130015.pdf suggests that the Carrington-event was not a ‘500-yr flood’ type event, but may happen a lot more frequently. ‘When’ may not be all that far off.
Don’t understand why that movie went straight to video with an all-star cast like that…
Good, we need this as a teachable moment. The AGW death cult is intent on returning us to both the climate and the technological state of pre-1880. Coincidentally this is the pre-electrical era.
One day, then a week, then two weeks without electricity for their TV, phones, tablets, hot water, heat and cooking will re-calibrate the mindset of population, changing them from being spoiled and stupid back to thankful.
Once power is restored the AGW luddite fanatics will open their mouthes at their peril.
So what’s the comparison of a Carrington event with an EMP from a nuke blast in the stratosphere? The effects of them have been well studied. I would guess the Carrington event would contain a lot less of the higher frequency stuff and therefore do a lot less damage to smaller systems.
If you sign up here,,,,, you would know of the issue well ahead of most.
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
One must ask of themselves,,,,, how would I do with no power, internet, cell, etc..
Being in a hurricane zone,,, it might be a bit different perspective for me.
How would city dwellers do?
BTW, if you sign up for space weather alerts, make sue you understand how to use the filters.
Lessons learned from these shoes 😉
And global warming, oops Climate Change will make it likelier that such events devastate us
While this is not such an event in a solar perspective. It has a similar impact with respect to energy none the less.
Yep, it is old, but is it any different/lesser today?
@Dan So what’s the comparison of a Carrington event with an EMP from a nuke blast in the stratosphere?
Well there is the book One Second After (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After)
which is a supposedly well researched novel on the effects of an EMP attack on the continental US. Not pretty, but entirely plausible.
“Bennett In Vermont says:
August 2, 2013 at 6:17 pm
I wonder how long it would take the electronic banking system to get back up to speed?”
Large sections of the electronic banking system would be unavailable for weeks, years or even permanently. I know from experience that most banks, their branches, datacentres and communications networks, are in no way prepared to deal with an event like this.
In a situation like a hurricane, you have most of the country to use as a staging area to bring in equipment and supplies. Imagine the grid going down across the hemispere. Nukes would shut down. Unquestionably there would be damage to the grid by sudden load imbalances. Breakers would trip throughout the network. You need to get men, parts and equipment all over the country, but there’s no power. Must fuel planes by handpump or emergency generator (which likely will be taken away by some government agency!) Can’t pump fuel into cars, either, except by hand. Can’t manufacture any special parts. How do you get the right people to the right places? Underground landlines might still work off of central office batteries, but forget the cellphone network. No way to communicate with the experts you need. The grid would have to be boot-strapped. Power plants must be restarted and parts of the grid connected in deliberate fashion to avoid more load imbalances, or undiscovered equipment failures.
How long would this take? What would major cities be like after week-long blackouts, no food deliveries, and essentially no way to cook the food? No running water, backed up sewage. No garbage collection. Police scrambling to maintain order. I can’t even imagine.
Before Dr. Svalgaard enlightened us that Carrington events were likely more frequent than a 500 year average I figured there was a 16 per cent chance of one in my lifetime (now down to about a five per cent chance, since my future life expectancy has grown considerably shorter) Now I have to raise the threat level of one. Guess I’ll add to my stock of emergency supplies.
At least the ill effects of global warming wouldn’t literally happen over night. 🙂
Re iterate what Anthony post scripted on Dr. Svalgaards post above.
I’ll repeat it again
[quote] It isn’t a matter of “if” we’ll get another Carrington type event, it is simply a matter of when. If we aren’t prepared, we’ll be back into the pre-industrial era in a few seconds.[/quote]
PRE Industrial era
Forget about internet banking or any banking for that matter.
You know the line from the Gilligans Island theme? – “:No Phones, No lights, No motor cars, not a single luxury”:.
Survival will be the premium.
@Blade says: August 2, 2013 at 6:58 pm
MANY many people would die. I sure as heck wouldn’t be wishing this one anyone. Take the southwest for example – you plunge major cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tuscon into power outage, and it happens to be summer with 115 degree temperatures, and a lot of people start dying pretty blasted quickly – or even if it’s the very very common 105-110 temps throughout the SW. Or northern cities in the winter with no heat, same result. And if the EMP/Solar flare is large enough to actually affect not just the electric grid, but also transportation, suddenly major cities all over the nation have NO food within a very few days. And what about water? How do people manage to get water, when pumping stations are down without electricity – that would be a massive problem within the first day or two…
This wouldn’t be a “teachable moment” unless you like the idea of one he!! of a brutal lesson with possibly millions dead. But I’ll grant you it would certainly re-arrange priorities for all those who survive lickety split. Personally, I’ll wish for a re-alignment that’s a little less gruesome and severe.
And the Critical National Infrastructures Report (http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf) states:
“Geomagnetic Storms. Probably one of the most famous and severe effects from solar storms occurred on March 13, 1989. On this day, several major impacts occurred to the power grids in North America and the United Kingdom. This included the complete blackout of the Hydro-Quebec power system and damage to two 400/275 kV autotransformers in southern England. In addition, at the Salem nuclear power plant in New Jersey a 1200 MVA, 500 kV transformer was damaged beyond repair when portions of its
structure failed due to thermal stress. The failure was caused by stray magnetic flux
impinging on the transformer core. Fortunately, a replacement transformer was readily
available; otherwise the plant would have been down for a year, which is the normal
delivery time for larger power transformers.”
This is the biggy, is there a shortage of spares or not??