There’s a surging current of alarm that we’re headed for a food doomsday by 2050—that the world’s food-producing capacity will crash before population peaks at 10 billion. Don’t you believe it! Smart technology and better management policies will let us feed the hungry hordes to midcentury and beyond. —IEEE Spectrum, Summer 2013
World total cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7 percent in 2013 compared to last year, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14, according to the latest issue of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. —Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 11 July 2013
Africa’s economy is growing faster than any other continent, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). A new report from the AfDB said one-third of Africa’s countries have GDP growth rates of more than 6%. The continent’s middle class is growing rapidly – around 350 million Africans now earn between $2 and $20 a day. The AfDB’s Annual Development Effectiveness Report said the growth was largely driven by the private sector, thanks to improved economic governance and a better business climate on the continent. —BBC News, 11 July 2013
After nearly a decade of drought, Israel has decided to make its freshwater rather than wait in vain for enough of it to fall from the sky. The Sorek desalination plant opening next month will be the largest facility of its kind in the world. Once it’s operational, Israel’s four desalination plants will be capable of producing 60 percent of the country’s freshwater. There’s speculation that the country will soon see a water surplus, something that was almost unthinkable during the arid 2000s. –Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, 30 May 2013
Humans may never have to worry about the supply of fresh water again. The University of Texas at Austin reports that some of the university’s scientists have found a new way to desalinate sea water, potentially easing concerns over one of the crises facing human civilization we’ve been told is just around the bend. –Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, 13 July 2013
Thanks to The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser for that roundup.
Compare that news to the gloom and doom of Paul Ehrlich from juts a few months ago:
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Contemplating Collapse
by Paul Ehrlich
It’s been three months since Anne and I summarized our views on this topic for the Royal Society, and we’ve been pleased that it has generated a fair amount of discussion and particularly, invitations to share our take on the future in various forum in the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. So far the paper has not elicited any significant attacks, save one “rebuttal” based on climate denial that was rejected by a journal. But it has also not yet generated some of the discussion we might have hoped for, especially on key issues such as how to buffer the global agricultural system against global change so as to retain a real possibility of at least maintaining today’s nutritional situation and steps that need to be taken to increase human security against vast epidemics (such as that which now may be threatened by the H7N9 “bird flu” virus).
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Source: http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=88e1f9157b8a1070712b4dd12&id=22001abf1d&e=f8b6a6b78b
I’d love to see him explain how the world agricultural system will collapse in the face of gains like this, it should be entertaining.
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The world per capita demand for cereals is actually stagnant since the 1970s. This overall stagnation results from diminishing per capita demand in developed countries and still rising per capita demand in developing countries. Another process underlying the stagnant per capita demand for cereals is a slightly decreasing per capita demand for cereals as human food, and increasing per capita demand for cereals for other purposes (mainly for animal feed, and secondarily for biofuels). In the meanwhile, per capita demand for non-cereal foods is increasing, especially vegetable oil, meat of various kinds, fruit, vegetables and more. The adequate metric for total food production (or total agricultural production including non-food products such as hides, tobacco or wool) is total value of production at world average producer prices, converted into a common currency at Purchasing Power Parity conversion rates. FAO provides this metric in FAOSTAT (production – value of production). It has been increasing in per capita terms since the beginning of the series in 1961.
Sedron is a paid drone, a Progressive apparatchik whose world view is centered on belief rather than reason.
Mark Bofill says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:46 am
Ehrlich is like a living study in human stupidity, in that the guy has predicted disasters decade after decade that have never come to pass, and yet some people still pay attention to what he’s got to say…..
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Worse his co-author, John Holdern became Obama’s Science Czar.
I forgot to include the link http://zombietime.com/john_holdren/ (Sorry the power just went out again)
Wyguy says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:27 am
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”
― George Bernard Shaw
I believe the quote is relevant to conversations, arguments, discussions or attempts to reason with progressives.
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Shaw should know since he was co-founder of the Fabian society the well from which the progressives sprung.
Gail Combs says:
July 22, 2013 at 11:56 am (Edit)
——————————————–
Gail, you like so many people, believe that countries like Haiti are unable to counter the actions of America in her trade dealings. What you are basically saying is that places like Haiti are governed badly as though that is America’s fault. Why are you so keen to excuse bad governance in third world countries as if it is the fault of others?
Haiti has been independent of France for over 200 years. It is an economic and social catastrophe through the fault of its political leadership. America , like other advanced societies , will take advantage of this situation and why shouldn’t it. Until Haiti, and others , learn that being useless has big consequences they will never get their act together. That is nobody’s fault but their own.
Instead what we find are societies that claim equality and the right to pursue their own philosophies without interference yet claim exploitation when they fail. Good governance is the solution and if they are not up to the task so be it. That is the way the world works.
Steven Hales and Sedron L
The paper you are quoting is from 1999 – there have been significant changes to most indicators since this time and a much more optimistic outlook now pertains to a number of the factors in this paper. Primarily, productivity gains in the major cereals are on the rise and the FAO review quoted in the article points out that the increase in production has outpaced increases in population. Furthermore, estimates of population increase have declined over the past 15 years, with more recognition that reduced poverty and increased child mortality leads to reduced birth rates in developing countries.
There is a long way to go, but progress is being made, especially in Africa which missed out significantly on the agricultural productivity gains in the 70’s and 80’s. The IEEE article (also listed above) focussed on Africa in particular and noted that much of the improvement is based on adoption of ideas and technologies which are hardly new, but which had not been seen in Africa. Yes, we all trumpet cutting edge breakthroughs, but there is a long way between the highest and lowest yields even in a continent where productivity has been comparatively low. Raising the lowest to even a median level represents a productivity increase far in excess of that required just to cope with population growth.
Jeff York says:
July 22, 2013 at 10:00 am
It speaks very poorly of The Royal Society that there weren’t wholesale resignations when that once-august institution decided to confer Fellowship on Paul Erlich.
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What did you expect when The Royal Society hosted a pro-eugenics conference in 2004 link
Ian W says:
July 22, 2013 at 10:58 am
…..If the ‘grow line’ for crops moves 500 miles equatorward then the world is in a LOT of trouble. This could happen quite rapidly.
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Especially since the USA got rid of her grain reserves and the Food Safety Modernization Act is designed to drive family farms out of business via massive red tape. see: http://www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/FSMA/ucm257978.htm
Sedron L says:
July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am
(Ahem.) Of course, the relevant metric is production PER CAPITA, and it has been dropping for many years now:
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(Ahem) Of course, climate change is expected to directly affect TOTAL production, leading to lower per capita as a result. Any reduction in per capita production, as total production increases, must (kinda by definition) be because of increasing population.
To date at least, by far the biggest effect of climate change on available food has been the diversion of crops from food to fuel.
Paul still can’t get over the fact that we are not all going to starve to death in the next decade, or the next, or the next or next …
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Director of CIGI, last year was playing the same card with wheat and drought… Debunked again… I better understand why he sticks to anti pipeline politics these days!
JP says (July 22, 2013 at 9:47 am): “This demand demand for food will decrease, as will the number of acres farmed. Demand for energy will drop rapidly, commodity prices will plunge, as strong deflationary pressures mount on a global scale. As the number of consumers and producers fall, so will the demand for food, energy, and consumer goods.”
The decline in demand will be offset, partly or entirely, by the rising standard of living of the poorest Earthicans. Think of a world population with, on average, the living standards (and per capita demands) of the US today (the future US will be even richer, if our electorate stops mucking things up).
The good news is that more efficient production and higher yields may allow some reduction in the total amount of farmland needed with a hoped for reduction in habitat destruction.
Gail,
Thanks, I was unaware of that about Holdren.
Creepy…
Keitho says: @ur momisugly July 22, 2013 at 12:21 pm
….Gail, you like so many people, believe that countries like Haiti are unable to counter the actions of America in her trade dealings. What you are basically saying is that places like Haiti are governed badly as though that is America’s fault….
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Haiti’s a victim of an intentional policy of ‘Interdependence’ (I will cover that later)
No I do not consider it the fault of US citizens however I do consider it the fault of America’s Ruling Class. or the Regulating Class or what ever you want to call them
Until people figure out the ‘Us’ vs “Them” is not about progressives vs capitalists or blacks vs whites but about those who would rule us through lies and stealth vs the people who pay through taxes and in some cases lives this world will never be a better place.
IMHO our politicians are very rapidly hauling us toward a worldwide totalitarian state. Sound like a lunatics Conspiracy until you read the direct quotes from people like Pascal Lamy, Director General of the WTO.
Note the word interdependence. This is THE big clue. Al Gore and other liberals/Fabians/ progressives/socialists have been pushing that concept for years. SEE The Interdependence Movement
You can also look at the IMF.
There is a reason why interdependence vs self-sufficiency is being fostered by the world’s elite (aside from raking in mega bucks) Haiti was just a casualty of that movement and it is an intentional movement.
I suggest you also read DEATH BY GOVERNMENT By R.J. Rummel
My goal is to fight the accumulation of power by the unelected by shining a spot light on their activities.
Mark Bofill says:
July 22, 2013 at 1:29 pm
Gail,
Thanks, I was unaware of that about Holdren.
Creepy…
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Yes, Trying reading up on what the Fabian founders wanted if you really want nightmares!
The Real George Bernard Shaw
The eugenics movement Britain wants to forget
And the USA was no better.
Margaret Sanger, Founder of Planned Parenthood: In Her Own Words
This about my home state North Carolina:
If you think this is “Old News” you are wrong.
Gail Combs
Thanks, I’m not paranoid after all, they are out to get me.
Sedron, you assert that grain production has become more volatile. Droughts and floods have affected grain production throughout all history (earliest recorded that I am aware of is Egypt in the time of Joseph). That is the entire reason of building reserves.
Second, per capita grain production should be expected to level off at some point. Once I have the ability to consume 2,000 calories per day more wealth will not increase my consumption.
Let’s consider a world in which much less third world agricultural production goes to rot (almost twice the amount in the US). Even without any improvements in yield there could be a drastic drop in production to give the same amount of edible calories. Now lets add to that world an abolition of favorable treatment of ethanol. Grain production per capita would again be expected to drop. So, remove distortive subsidies and improve third world delivery efficiencies and production should be expected to plummet even as more people are well fed.
Even if Ehrlich were right about production he would still be wrong about hunger.
Note – primary rot in third world countries is primarily before delivery to final consumers while in the first world it is after. We can afford to throw away food when it goes bead in our refrigerator, third world countries have to throw it away because it goes bad in a warehouse somewhere. Thus even though we are often referred to as “wasteful” when it comes to food, we waste less than poorer countries. Somebody please build more electricity generation capacity in Africa and India so they can use refrigerators to improve the food storage situation.
SandyInLimousin says:
July 22, 2013 at 2:17 pm
Gail Combs
Thanks, I’m not paranoid after all, they are out to get me.
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Nah, All they are after is all your wealth. You don’t kill off the golden goose…. Well not unless you are Stalin (Only fitting that the article is from Stanford University)
It’s funny that they still talk about food shortages, when obesity is such a growing (no pun intended) problem. There’s way too much food, not a dearth of it.
Reblogged this on Anthropogenic Global Alarmism and commented:
“Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.” – Malthusian, eco-alarmist Paul R. Ehrlich in The American Spectator, September 6, 1992
“In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” – Paul R. Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
Ian W
You are correct if we do get a a Dalton minimum or Maunder Minimum the planet will have less water which means more difficult to feed our people. Gail Combs seems to have some reasons why a country would eliminate one of the primary functions of what government has done for thousands of years. Store food for bad times.
The US government at this point is not working for it’s people.
Sedron L @ur momisugly July 22, 2013 at 9:12 am talks about per capita.
There must be something amiss with your chart because it does not square with reality. Worldwide, starvation is on the decrease. Per capita caloric intake is on the increase. And India — which for decades was synonymous with starvation – is now exporting food.
It could be that the data sources for the chart are faulty, but there are a few peculiarities of the chart: First, it leaves off key food-production areas of the world. Second, the forward projections of decrease are not consistent with the historic record – even with the historic record presented in the chart. Third, the area of primary concern – with historic downward trends — would be Eastern Africa, and there are lots of reasons why this data may not be reliable for a projection: the area has low production so that any disruption either in production or reporting could be responsible for the trend. Potential disruption could be (a) wars in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eretria, Somalia, etc. – where not only production could be disruption but also data collection could be most dangerous; (b) Kenyan efforts to preserve wildlife parks at the expense of agriculture; (c) the destruction of productive farms in the transition from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe – an ongoing catastrophe; and (d) the socialist disaster of Mozambique.
And earlier this month
Arid areas of the Earth are greening. The Sahel and the biosphere in general. According to Ehrlich India was supposed to be the land of skelator, yet last year it was the world’s top exporter of rice. We are doomed……………again!
What I don’t understand is why, with so many spectacular failed predictions, does Paul ‘Nostradamus’ Ehrlich continue? How will history remember him? Not for being right that’s for sure.