Guest essay by David Archibald
This post drew attention to the similarity between the recent warm decades and the period leading up to the extremely cold year of 1740. Now let’s investigate how a 1740-type event might play out. This graph shows the average of the monthly temperatures for the years 1736 to 1739 plotted with the monthly temperatures of the year 1740:
With respect to growing conditions, the 1740 season was a month later than the average of the previous five years and the peak months of the season were 2.5°C cooler. To get a perspective on how a repeat of 1740 might affect growing conditions in the Corn Belt, Bill Fordham, advising the grain industry in the Midwest, has kindly provided an update on the current season:
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“So far here in the center of the Midwest, the 2013 growing season is almost identical to 2009 in regards to Growing Degree Days (GDD).
In 2009 48% of the corn was planted by May 12 and 62% was planted by May 19.
In 2013 18% of the corn was planted by May 12 and 71% was planted by May 19.
In 2009, we never received a killing frost until November 5 when the low was at 28F. The Midwest had a huge crop that was wet and light test weight, but never got killed by a frost. In 2009, the total GDD accumulation from May 15 thru September 30 was 2,530 GDD.
The bulk of the corn planted in the Midwest ranges from 2,300 to 2,700 GDD (based on Fahrenheit). With the volcanoes that have been erupting in Alaska and Russia, especially with Mt Sheveluch erupting to 7.4 miles on June 26, I will be surprised if we get through the month of September in 2013 without an early killing frost. If the heat dome and high pressure ridge stays centered in the west and over Alaska until Labor Day, the clockwise rotation will pump the cold air south over the Midwest along with the ash. There are millions of acres at risk in IA and MN, that are 2-3 weeks behind normal.
After silking, it takes 24-28 days to reach the Dough Stage when kernel moisture is about 70% and about 50% of the total dry matter has accumulated in the kernel.
After silking, it takes 35-42 days to reach the Dent Stage when kernel moisture is about 55% and about 70% of the total dry matter has accumulated in the kernel.
It takes about 55-65 days after silking for a corn plant to mature and for the kernel to reach black layer, normally at 30-35% moisture.
A killing frost, <30F, will do damage whenever it occurs before black layer, the earlier the frost, the more severe the damage. A hard killing frost <28F can reduce the yield up to 25%, or more depending on the variety, even a week before black layer.
In 1974 I experienced severe loss on some late planted corn when I got rained out on May 7 and didn’t get back in to finish planting for 3 weeks. The May 7 corn yielded 190 bushels per acre and the May 28 corn yielded 90 bushels per acre, same variety.”
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Based on Bill Fordham’s experience of 1974, planting three weeks later reduced the crop yield by 50%. If the peak growth months of June, July and August are 2.5°C (4.5°F) cooler as per the CET record of 1740, that would reduce the GDD by 414.
A repeat of the climate of 1740, with a late planting and reduced heat in the three months prior to harvest can be expected to reduce crop yield by well more than 50%.
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Don’t understand the real point of the article. Basically all it says is that cooler years tend to reduce yield (which we already know). Is there any indication of any common condition between 1740 and 2013 aside from spring temperature? Any common atmospheric conditions or other thing that might indicate we are actually looking at a 1740 and not a 2004? Basically the article is speculative, presents nothing to show why 2013 might be like 1740 and presents only that yield drops if crops are planted late. That is already a widely known fact. Every day after May 15 that corn is planted results in lower final yield and that is why farmers will switch to planting soy beans if they can’t get corn in on time.
Other areas of similarity are Solar output and a cold Ocean flow.. We are already within 1-2 deg F of that years low temps along with a very wet spring which place this year very close to that one.. If the solar output trend continues to fall a Maunder or Dalton event could be very likely. Given earths population and the current killing off of our ability to warm and feed them due to the CO2 garbage agenda it would be the deaths of millions.. all for the CAGW Agenda…
Man doesn’t do well in a cooling environment… And the eugenics crowd knows it..
Crosspatch: See June article referenced. 2015 – maybe.
Bill H says:
July 5, 2013 at 1:14 pm
If the solar output trend continues to fall a Maunder or Dalton event could be very likely.
Have you considered the possibility that the Sun’s output was higher during the Maunder Minimum than today? Sunspots diminish the output of energy [they are darker and cooler]. With no sunspots there would not be a diminution of solar output…
agree with ya, crosspatch. I find the idea of a repeat of 1740 intriguing; but we’ve got to remember that no matter how well the graphs match, the chances of something like that both repeating and being predictable is a very, very long shot. I recognize the possibility, and if it happens we will gain some very valuable knowledge about the workings of this system – but I can’t, as yet see any reason to believe that the odds of this happening as predicted are very high.
And the problem I have with the speculation about the parade of horribles that are laid out is the same complaint I have with so many pro-global warming pieces I’ve read, Rather than looking at the likelihood and mechanism of the predicted event, the formula followed seems to usually be: 1) just Assume the Bad Thing happens, whatever it is, for whatever reason,
2) Look how Bad this Thing is! It’ll be Really, Really Bad!!!
(well yeah, because the whole case rests on the assumption that it will be)
Makes for a punchy, tabloid style article but not all that much science in it.
(P.S. I’ve always been a big fan of Archibald’s posts – it’s just that for me,this one misses the mark.)
I”ve never seen the crops this far behind. Corn was not knee-high by the fourth of July, but it has always been waist to shoulder high in my lifetime. Those beans that actually got planted on time are about two inches tall. A lot of the corn was sent back and exchanged for shorter-season corn, which will yield less. The upshot is that meat will be more expensive next spring.
I read this as, What if we get a repeat of 1740?
I’d like to see it taken further. Exploring the consequences for global food supplies.
The bad year 1740 was likely the result of volcanic activity [Tarumai, Japan, 1739 and likely more important for England temperatures: Bárdarbunga Iceland, 1739] so is not predictable.
This article is a very good description of a believable scenario and those who understand it can use it to in strategic planning for the next year. That is a hell of a lot better than being caught cold (no pun intended) with the reality of a grain shortfall without a plan. What it is not is an example of the little boy who cried wolf. There is no hyperbole in this post but much that can be used as a hedge against inflation. My first thought on reading it was to go out and buy a side of beef on speculation.
There is more to it than just 1740
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET1690-1960.htm
If we’re predicting a reduced corn crop, the B.O. regime should consider backing off on the ethanol requirement for gasoline, so more corn can go to feeding people.
Mike McMillan says:
July 5, 2013 at 2:10 pm
If we’re predicting a reduced corn crop,
Since great volcanic eruptions are not very predictable, we can hardly be predicting a reduced crop…
A point that can be made, considering the focus of WUWT; is it a good. or even prudent, idea to be using corn as a substitute for oil, specifically when a 50% drop in crop yields is ever present?
WHEW
You had me worried there for a moment
“A repeat of the climate of 1740, with a late planting and reduced heat in the three months prior to harvest can be expected to reduce crop yield by well more than 50%.”
It looks like the harvest would still OK to allow for the production of Ethanol
Boy was I worried /SARC
“Don’t understand the real point of the article. Basically all it says is that cooler years tend to reduce yield (which we already know).”
Agree
I love this website, but the quality of the articles is all over the place. I would be surprised if Skepitical Science would pick out a hot year from the last three or four CENTURIES and write what this author wrote.
Blue sky says:
July 5, 2013 at 2:17 pm
I love this website, but the quality of the articles is all over the place.
You can count of Archibald to deliver articles with a consistent [unvarying] quality…
A similar condition occurred in Italy with their delayed-planted tomato crop this year.
Many Italian growing regions were forced to delay tomato planting by two and some by as much as three weeks due to the extremely cold Spring in Europe.
The Italian tomato crop yields will be much lower this year than average, so expect to pay more for your Italian canned tomatoes this year due to the cold Spring and the tanking US$, which makes imports more expensive.
This “Global Warming” is kicking our butts with its cold.
Is it the cold they’re referring to when the Warmunistas say, “it’s worse tha we thought.”?
BTW, the TSI dropped about 1watt/M^2 in June, so in Hansen NEWSPEAK, I guess that’s the equivalent of about 150,000 Hiroshima bombs NOT going off….
It now seems almost certain that SC24 hit its peak sunspot number in December 2012; about a year earlier than projected. Now comes the slow slide to 2020, when the weakest solar cycle since 1715 starts….
When is the world going to come to its senses and pull the plug on this flatlined CAGW blue eggs and scam?
That made me laugh.
I think our skeptic standards should be much higher.
Here is the Farmland Forecast on July 2, 2013, “Although corn crop conditions are better than last year at this time, historically late planting may have an adverse affect on crop yields.”
With no sunspots there would not be a diminution of solar output…
Dramatically reduced UV output which we have already seen to be a driver in the recent contraction of the atmosphere as noted by the change in satellite drag in low Earth orbit.
denniswingo says:
July 5, 2013 at 3:25 pm
Dramatically reduced UV output which we have already seen to be a driver in the recent contraction of the atmosphere as noted by the change in satellite drag in low Earth orbit.
of the thermosphere at 400 km altitude. Reduction of the visible will have a much larger effect in what reaches the ground and heats the troposphere and the oceans. You got to get the perspective right.
SAMURAI says:
July 5, 2013 at 2:32 pm
BTW, the TSI dropped about 1watt/M^2 in June,
Compared to what? to May? No, May 1361.36, June 1361.39..
There was a drop of 0.25 W/m2 recently, but that was due to a change of data set version from 13 to 14, causing a recalibration of the whole dataset since 2003 with all value dropped by 0.25W/m2.
JFD says: “Here is the Farmland Forecast on July 2, 2013, “Although corn crop conditions are better than last year at this time, historically late planting may have an adverse affect on crop yields.” And the crop report from Southwestern Minnesota is drought ending Spring rain (Good), but it delayed planting as in the article. I can agree with the article, denting of the kernals is a milestone each year, as well as the hard frost date which aids the corn in drying while stopping its growth. Farmers can be helped by a good hard frost date, as drying corn costs money and adds a step.
ldenniswingo says:
July 5, 2013 at 3:25 pm
Dramatically reduced UV output which we have already seen to be a driver in the recent contraction of the atmosphere as noted by the change in satellite drag in low Earth orbit.
of the thermosphere at 400 km altitude. Enhancement of the visible will have a much larger effect in what reaches the ground and heats the troposphere and the oceans. You got to get the perspective right.
— is perhaps the better way of expressing it.