From the GWPF: Met Office To Hold Crisis Summit On Epic Forecast Failures
The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm. None of the forecasts issued ended up too cold. That makes the errors systemic and significant.
Met Office To Hold Summit On Disappointing (sic) UK Weather
The Guardian, 14 June 2013: Climate scientists and meteorologists are meeting next week to debate the causes of UK’s disappointing weather in recent years.
Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame? To try to answer the question the Met Office is hosting an unprecedented meeting of climate scientists and meteorologists next week to debate the possible causes of the UK’s “disappointing” weather over recent years, the Guardian has learned.
Met Office 2008 Forecast: Trend of Mild Winters Continues
Met Office, 25 September 2008: The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.
Reality Check: Winter of 2008/09 Coldest Winter For A Decade
Met Office, March 2009: Mean temperatures over the UK were 1.1 °C below the 1971-2000 average during December, 0.5 °C below average during January and 0.2 °C above average during February. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2 °C, which is 0.5 °C below average, making it the coldest winter since 1996/97 (also 3.2 °C).
Met Office 2009 Forecast: Trend To Milder Winters To Continue, Snow And Frost Becoming Less Of A Feature
Met Office, 25 February 2009: Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future. “The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850.”
Reality Check: Winter Of 2009/10 Coldest Winter For Over 30 Years
Met Office, 1 March 2010: Provisional figures from the Met Office show that the UK winter has been the coldest since 1978/79. The mean UK temperature was 1.5 °C, the lowest since 1978/79 when it was 1.2 °C.
Met Office 2010 Forecast: Winter To Be Mild Predicts Met Office
Daily Express, 28 October 2010: IT’S a prediction that means this may be time to dig out the snow chains and thermal underwear. The Met Office, using data generated by a £33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years… The new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office’s website.
Reality Check: December 2010 “Almost Certain” To Be Coldest Since Records Began
The Independent, 18 December 2010: December 2010 is “almost certain” to be the coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office.
Met Office Predicted A Warm Winter. Cheers Guys
John Walsh, The Independent, 19 January 2010: Some climatologists hint that the Office’s problem is political; its computer model of future weather behaviour habitually feeds in government-backed assumptions about climate change that aren’t borne out by the facts. To the Met Office, the weather’s always warmer than it really is, because it’s expecting it to be, because it expects climate change to wreak its stealthy havoc. If it really has had its thumb on the scales for the last decade, I’m afraid it deserves to be shown the door.
BBC Analysis: A Frozen Britain Turns The Heat Up On The Met Office
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010: Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre’s predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?
A Period Of Humility And Silence Would Be Best For Met Office
Dominic Lawson, The Sunday Times, 10 January 2010: A period of humility and even silence would be particularly welcome from the Met Office, our leading institutional advocate of the perils of man-made global warming, which had promised a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and one of the “warmest winters on record”. In fact, the Met still asserts we are in the midst of an unusually warm winter — as one of its staffers sniffily protested in an internet posting to a newspaper last week: “This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings.”
Met Office 2012 Forecast: Drier than average conditions for April-May-June
Met Office 3-month Outlook, 23 March 2012: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period… This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.”
Reality Check: Wettest April for 100 years
April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show. Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.”
June: June on course to be wettest in a century: Flooding, storms and persistent showers have blighted the country in recent weeks putting this June in line to become one of the soggiest in 100 years.
25 June: Spring is wettest in Britain for 250 years – England and Wales are on course for the wettest late spring and early summer for 250 years, experts said yesterday. June has just seen its fourth washout weekend and yet more downpours are forecast. Now it is feared combined rainfall for April, May and June will break the record of 13.2in (336mm) set in 1782 and be the highest since records began in 1766.
Met Office 2013 Forecast: Feb-March Above-Average UK Temps More Likely
Met Office, 20 December 2012: For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.
Reality Check: Met Office confirms coldest March in more than 50 years
Press Association, 29 March 2013: This March is the coldest in the UK since 1962, forecasters have confirmed. After weeks of speculation about whether this miserable March would top the list, the Met Office has announced it is the coldest in 51 years according to provisional statistic.
Paul Hudson: Met Office global forecasts too warm in 11 out of last 12 years
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 10 February 2012: Although this discrepancy is within the stated margin of error, it is the 11th year out of the last 12 when the Met Office global temperature forecast has been too warm. In all these years, the discrepancy between observed temperatures and the forecast are within the stated margin of error. But all the errors are on the warm side, with none of the forecasts that have been issued in the last 12 years ending up too cold. And, in my opinion, that makes the error significant.
Martin Rosenbaum: The Met Office and its seasonal problems
BBC Open Secrets, 23 December 2010
As Britain remains cold and snowy, an interesting little dispute has boiled up between the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and the Met Office over the quality of longer-range weather forecasting.
And this is illuminated by documents obtained by the BBC under freedom of information from the Met Office. These shed new light on the problems faced by the Met Office in its public communications and the strategies it has adopted for tackling them.
The Met Office is under attack from the GWPF, for its “poor advice” on the likelihood of a harsh and cold winter.
The GWPF is drawing attention to a map published on the Met Office website in October which indicated that the UK was likely to experience above-normal temperatures in the ensuing three-month period.
For the GPWF, which is sceptical of the Met Office and other mainstream analysis of global warming, this is evidence of a Met Office tendency to under-predict cold weather and over-predict mild winters…..
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Will the meeting include the same 28 people who helped drive the BBC’s direction?
Is it possible to have an honest discussion of the weather in the UK?
I don’t think the science is mature enough there. They’re still blaming CO2, doh.
cn
With the Sun Quiet, the Gulf of Mexico cooling, the Gulf Stream less intense and cooler, prepare for a “Vicious Winter” in England and Europe. Watch the Mid to North Atlantic temperatures: as they continue to decrease the cold will follow. Stock-up on coal, wood, propane, extra insulation, “NOW”. Get portable generators, since the increasing load on the utility grid will cause increasing brownouts and failures.
Taxed says: “Over recent years the Azores highs have been moving northwards over the Atlantic. ”
Are you sure? Take a look at the current synoptic chart. There is high pressure between Newfoundland and Ireland, in a position like you mention. But I believe it is the Greenland high moved south, rather than the Azores high moved north. You can see the Azores high peeking at the bottom of the chart, south-west of Portugal, or roughly where the Azores are. It’s nice in the Azores so I suppose we can’t blame it for not wanting to come out to play…
Rich.
Mycroft
if it helps, send your MP my chart showing the drop in temperature graphed against the rise in fuel prices.
http://climatereason.com/Graphs/Graph11.png
They do want to get re-elected you know…
tonyb
elmer says:
June 15, 2013 at 6:16 am
The MET Office must be publicly funded.
I believe to the tune of some £200 million a year. They’re not worried about wasting money on a computer that doesn’t work or hosting a meaningless meeting, the taxpayer picks up the bill.
Ryan says:
June 14, 2013 at 12:51 pm
“I don’t think it’s too surprising that they are having trouble predicting weather in a country so near the arctic. The inputs to the system have adjusted, so the output models aren’t going to be very accurate.”
But I thought the purpose of a model was to use the inputs (whatever they are at the time) to generate the output? Essentially, you’re admitting that the models are crap by implying that the only time they would work is when the inputs don’t change. Alternatively, I suppose, your statement could imply that the models aren’t using relevant inputs. Either way, you’re saying the models are crap. Classic case of GIGO.
By the way, I agree with your implication, regardless which alternative you mean to imply.
WWF-UK Chief Executive Robert Napier has been appointed the new chairman of the Met Office.
————————-
Absolutely stunning conflict of interest, dont you think?
Lets just hand the keys over to this leftist political operative so he can do his part for the WWF..
There is no way that a bunch of leftists (met office) will be able to call a meeting to self regulate the leftism out of their tax funded theater arts make work project.. No way.. They will call for greater funding and more time (please!) so they can continue to fund their political beliefs with tax dollars (illegal)..
No AGW for 20 years means no climate catastrophe.. No climate catastrophe means no AGW..
its high time “green” gets called on its predictions that put its political movement above the election laws in western democracies.. You can not use tax dollars to fund a political movement in a democracy..
What they are doing is illegal..
climatereason says:
June 15, 2013 at 6:24 am
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Tony
Very pleased to hear that you are preparing something for them. I am of the firm view that one problem in climate science is a lack of historical perspective.
Surprising as it may be, I strongly suspect that the majority of those attending the meeting will have little detailed knowledge about CET, its variability, and historic UK climate events. Accordingly, I envisage that your comments will be very enlightening. Having viewed many of your articles/comments, I know that you will make a good presentation.
A midwestern USA perspective. http://www.skinnyski.com/trails/articles/midwestwinters2006.pdf
Since 2006, we’ve had 3 mild winters and 3 harsh winters!
Pretty much the same.
Max
Richard Verney
Thanks for your kind comments. As they, say you can lead a horse to water…..
I very much doubt if anyone will see the document, let alone read it, let alone believe there might be a perspective on climate they hadn’t t considered. But you can only try!
Tonyb
See ~ owe to rich
Hi having looked back at the charts for the spring of 2012 it looks like you were right it was a Greenland high rather then a Azores high. What l mean was that l have noticed a increase in the Azores high forming a ridge to the north over the Atlantic and at times joining up with the Greenland high. lf you take a look at the chart for 18.00 hours Friday 14th June it shows a example of what l mean. But sorry my fault l should of made myself clearer.
Richard Verney
You mentioned way above about the hot dry weather in 1540 so I went to see what my own records said;
1540 Great heat and drought agc
Excessive drought rivers dried up ‘in other places (All over the country?) hottest and healthiest year in the memory of man (Short)
Summer exceedingly hot wof
Fine weather and heat Feb to Sept 19th mid harvest on June 25th grapes ripe in July, rain fell only six times exceedingly early spring cherries ripe by end may . Extreme drought at end of summer Baker
This year was remarkable for the abundance of corn and fruit Lowe
So the programme was right 🙂
tonyb
Fire your climate scientists, return the overpriced computers, sell the office buildings, and save a ton of money for your tax payers. One good, unbiased statistician with access to historical meteorological records and a laptop PC, working from home, would do a better job at making the official predictions than that expensive, over educated mob you’ve let your politicians hire on your behalf. The mob members know this and they are getting nervous.
Tonyb
Yes we could both send it to Bradshaw but seeing it was his party that drew up Climate Change Act what would you think his response would be?
Besides I emailed him last week on other matters and he hasn’t the decency to answer me on that yet..as you said you can lead a horse to water…
If you start with the assumption that global warming is real, which side of the coin toss would you favour.
Similar to the Gore Effect, MET Office predictions prove there is a God and he has A sense of humor
DirkH said @ur momisugly June 14, 2013 at 3:36 pm
No-one has even attempted to “get cloudiness right” in a GCM. The resolution of a GCM is orders of magnitude coarser than even the larger clouds. GCMs model average cloudiness. Cilmate is driven by actual clouds, not average cloudiness.
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 10 February 2012: Although this discrepancy is within the stated margin of error, it is the 11th year out of the last 12 when the Met Office global temperature forecast has been too warm.
========
the odds of this being due to chance are 4000 to 1.
OK, this is a pointless exercise and bad for one’s health. But if you look at the comments to the article in The Guardian, that Anthony has linked, the depth of denial (i.e., denial of there being any basis for suggesting there may be any doubt about the CAGW theory) is just astounding. So, Mr. Watts, keep the good work up. There are some very thick skulls out there.
The Ol’ sea dog. said; “I have learnt that the Guardian lost 33 M pounds last year…. The readership dropped 12.5 % to 261,000.”
Wonderful news to start the day with. Let’s hope the Guardian repeats or better still, increases it’s losses of readership and money this year, next year and every year.
As for the Met Office having a meeting, one wonders if they will take a leaf out of the BBC book and invite heads of comedy, Greenpeace, the WWF and assorted NGOs and people from foreign embassy’s to participate.
Perhaps they think that the problem with their forecasts is not really a problem with their forecasts, but rather a failure to communicate the science of global warming effectively enough, that the population of the UK need to be suitably indoctrinated to believe that co2 causes all known variations in the weather.
I’m sure they think that their forecasts are accurate and match reality perfectly, the problem must be that ‘denialists’ are falsely proclaiming that their forecasts were wrong. So they will seek to discuss how to silence the ‘denialists’ and how to better promote the message they want to get across about the need to destroy the economy and peoples lives in order to reduce co2 and increase their power and position.
The meeting cannot possibly be about weather and climate because it’s obvious the Met Office haven’t the faintest idea about either.
Fred Liebkemann said “One good, unbiased statistician with access to historical meteorological records and a laptop PC, working from home, would do a better job at making the official predictions than that expensive, over educated mob you’ve let your politicians hire on your behalf.”
Yes we have that already, he’s called Piers Corbin, for years he would place bets at betting agencies on his forecast being more accurate than the Met Office forecasts, until he had won so often that the betting agencies banned him.
Mycroft said “Besides I emailed him last week on other matters and he hasn’t the decency to answer me on that yet..as you said you can lead a horse to water…”
You need a better MP. I emailed my MP, John Redwood on a Sunday to ascertain his position on the climate change bill and received a reply just 17 minutes later.
climatereason said:
“So you noticed a change in the jet stream since 2000? That is nothing I noted them as being relevant to British weather for the period 1530 onwards in my article”
Relevance to British weather isn’t my main point though that is a help.
The points are:
(I) That the jet stream behaviour change was global although the effect is most pronounced in Western Europe presumably for geographical reasons.
(ii) A change in trend became discernible as long ago as 2000 and I have been saying as much since 2008 yet it is only now being acknowledged.
The implication is that close observation of jet stream behaviour on a global basis is a better diagnostic indicator of net global warming or cooling than the amount of CO2 in the air (or anything else for that matter).
I also suspect that total global cloudiness is linked closely to jet stream behaviour.
Dr. Lurtz says:
“prepare for a “Vicious Winter”…. Stock-up on coal, wood, propane, extra insulation, “NOW”. Get portable generators,…
********************************
Excellent advice.
Good but far, far, far too verbose. Whilst most readers of this blog will read thoroughly many of the “undecided” – our target audience – will not bother. It needs to be half the length and attention grabbing.