From the GWPF: Met Office To Hold Crisis Summit On Epic Forecast Failures
The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm. None of the forecasts issued ended up too cold. That makes the errors systemic and significant.
Met Office To Hold Summit On Disappointing (sic) UK Weather
The Guardian, 14 June 2013: Climate scientists and meteorologists are meeting next week to debate the causes of UK’s disappointing weather in recent years.
Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame? To try to answer the question the Met Office is hosting an unprecedented meeting of climate scientists and meteorologists next week to debate the possible causes of the UK’s “disappointing” weather over recent years, the Guardian has learned.
Met Office 2008 Forecast: Trend of Mild Winters Continues
Met Office, 25 September 2008: The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.
Reality Check: Winter of 2008/09 Coldest Winter For A Decade
Met Office, March 2009: Mean temperatures over the UK were 1.1 °C below the 1971-2000 average during December, 0.5 °C below average during January and 0.2 °C above average during February. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2 °C, which is 0.5 °C below average, making it the coldest winter since 1996/97 (also 3.2 °C).
Met Office 2009 Forecast: Trend To Milder Winters To Continue, Snow And Frost Becoming Less Of A Feature
Met Office, 25 February 2009: Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future. “The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850.”
Reality Check: Winter Of 2009/10 Coldest Winter For Over 30 Years
Met Office, 1 March 2010: Provisional figures from the Met Office show that the UK winter has been the coldest since 1978/79. The mean UK temperature was 1.5 °C, the lowest since 1978/79 when it was 1.2 °C.
Met Office 2010 Forecast: Winter To Be Mild Predicts Met Office
Daily Express, 28 October 2010: IT’S a prediction that means this may be time to dig out the snow chains and thermal underwear. The Met Office, using data generated by a £33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years… The new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office’s website.
Reality Check: December 2010 “Almost Certain” To Be Coldest Since Records Began
The Independent, 18 December 2010: December 2010 is “almost certain” to be the coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office.
Met Office Predicted A Warm Winter. Cheers Guys
John Walsh, The Independent, 19 January 2010: Some climatologists hint that the Office’s problem is political; its computer model of future weather behaviour habitually feeds in government-backed assumptions about climate change that aren’t borne out by the facts. To the Met Office, the weather’s always warmer than it really is, because it’s expecting it to be, because it expects climate change to wreak its stealthy havoc. If it really has had its thumb on the scales for the last decade, I’m afraid it deserves to be shown the door.
BBC Analysis: A Frozen Britain Turns The Heat Up On The Met Office
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010: Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre’s predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?
A Period Of Humility And Silence Would Be Best For Met Office
Dominic Lawson, The Sunday Times, 10 January 2010: A period of humility and even silence would be particularly welcome from the Met Office, our leading institutional advocate of the perils of man-made global warming, which had promised a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and one of the “warmest winters on record”. In fact, the Met still asserts we are in the midst of an unusually warm winter — as one of its staffers sniffily protested in an internet posting to a newspaper last week: “This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings.”
Met Office 2012 Forecast: Drier than average conditions for April-May-June
Met Office 3-month Outlook, 23 March 2012: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period… This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.”
Reality Check: Wettest April for 100 years
April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show. Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000.”
June: June on course to be wettest in a century: Flooding, storms and persistent showers have blighted the country in recent weeks putting this June in line to become one of the soggiest in 100 years.
25 June: Spring is wettest in Britain for 250 years – England and Wales are on course for the wettest late spring and early summer for 250 years, experts said yesterday. June has just seen its fourth washout weekend and yet more downpours are forecast. Now it is feared combined rainfall for April, May and June will break the record of 13.2in (336mm) set in 1782 and be the highest since records began in 1766.
Met Office 2013 Forecast: Feb-March Above-Average UK Temps More Likely
Met Office, 20 December 2012: For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.
Reality Check: Met Office confirms coldest March in more than 50 years
Press Association, 29 March 2013: This March is the coldest in the UK since 1962, forecasters have confirmed. After weeks of speculation about whether this miserable March would top the list, the Met Office has announced it is the coldest in 51 years according to provisional statistic.
Paul Hudson: Met Office global forecasts too warm in 11 out of last 12 years
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 10 February 2012: Although this discrepancy is within the stated margin of error, it is the 11th year out of the last 12 when the Met Office global temperature forecast has been too warm. In all these years, the discrepancy between observed temperatures and the forecast are within the stated margin of error. But all the errors are on the warm side, with none of the forecasts that have been issued in the last 12 years ending up too cold. And, in my opinion, that makes the error significant.
Martin Rosenbaum: The Met Office and its seasonal problems
BBC Open Secrets, 23 December 2010
As Britain remains cold and snowy, an interesting little dispute has boiled up between the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and the Met Office over the quality of longer-range weather forecasting.
And this is illuminated by documents obtained by the BBC under freedom of information from the Met Office. These shed new light on the problems faced by the Met Office in its public communications and the strategies it has adopted for tackling them.
The Met Office is under attack from the GWPF, for its “poor advice” on the likelihood of a harsh and cold winter.
The GWPF is drawing attention to a map published on the Met Office website in October which indicated that the UK was likely to experience above-normal temperatures in the ensuing three-month period.
For the GPWF, which is sceptical of the Met Office and other mainstream analysis of global warming, this is evidence of a Met Office tendency to under-predict cold weather and over-predict mild winters…..
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I note with interest that the Met Office, with all their expensive technology, is unable to give reasonably good forecast for this weekend. Yet they insist that when using this same technology they can predict decades into the future with remarkable accuracy. Until they can give valid, accurate, and verifiable forecasts for at least 1 month ahead they should be called to task for wasting tax-payers money.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/14/forecasting-challenges-this-weekend/
When checking the UK, I got this.
Chief Forecaster’s Commentary
There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to the potential spread of rain from the south across England and Wales during Sunday.
At least the Met Office can admit to a lot of uncertainty in forecasting the weather less than 2 days ahead.
A bunch of hubris-sodden embarrassments playing darts while blindfolded. The gall!
The MET record is a convincing demonstration that even one of the world’s most powerful super-computers should be expected to produce garbage if it is FED garbage. The imposition of adult supervision of this monstrous “toy” would seem to be indicated.
“The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm.”
It might be time to consider the tiny possibility that the Met Office climate models tend to over-estimate warming.
“Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame? ”
This is a question best asked by Chicken Little. Seriously. We must do something!!! (sarc/off)
KNR says: “The bottom line is the MET stopped making long term forecasts public because they were so wrong ,so often and these forecasts were always ‘by lucky chance ‘ in favour of ‘the cause ‘ Now can anyone spot a pattern?”
It’s my understanding that a few years ago Mad Madame Metoff had two forecasts, one for the public, and another private forecast for paid subscribers. In order for the latter to have enough value to warrant purchase. it must be better in some way than the former. I.e., the two forecasts were different.
So why did they drop the public forecast? What were they afraid of?
Mike Smith says:
June 14, 2013 at 8:49 pm
“The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm.”
It might be time to consider the tiny possibility that the Met Office climate models tend to over-estimate warming.
++++
FUNNY 🙂 It’s too late for that. I think about a decade ago, many people more than considered that to be the case!
As a Brit I’m ashamed at this happening, especially as it’s the weather that’s “disappointing” – implying that it’s the weather that’s wrong, not the forecasting. How our amateur scientists of past centuries, some of them sincerely enquiring noblemen, would have given wry laughs.
I hope they don’t overlook their own corrupt collusion with the BBC and the CRU..
“Disappointing weather” You see they WANT IT TO WARM, even though they cry GW as bad. Sick minds.
Starting a few years ago, I had never in my life been so excited about the future, because I could see, as many here also see, that the end of this yet another liberal attack on sensibility will come crashing to an end. But, with so much news about this administrations self inflicted economic wounds with regard to energy policy, money printing, spying on citizens, lying about Mexican gun running, fabricated stories about Benghazi, IRS political attacking, and most current offensive with regard to a no fly zone and getting more involved with the war on Syria, to continue helping the Arab Spring, I fear what’s coming. I pray the US actions do not get us into a war with Russia.
“People are always complaining about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Anon
Rather than the usual suspects having a pointless gabfest in an echo-chamber of mutual affirmation, I would prefer to see an independently-led enquiry. This is how it might proceed:
Chairman: “So, this 33 million quid supercomputer of yours, can it forecast the weather?
All: “Not so that you could rely on it, no.”
Chairman: “But you’ve invested a million man-hours of programming into the model! Surely it can at least hindcast the weather?”
Julia Slingo: “No. It suggested that we should have been planting bananas in Scotland.”
Chairman: “So, what do you propose to do about it?”
Sheepish Professor: “We’ve ordered twenty pieces of peer-reviewed seaweed.”
Chairman: “Why twenty?”
All: “Our science is firmly based on consensus.”
We need to have two Met offices. At the end of each year, the more accurate Met office gets bonuses paid for from the salaries of the less accurate Met office.
They just withdrew their support of the Marcott mess. They were not smart enough to figure out the problems themselves. Exactly how much confidence does that instill in educated readers regarding a crisis conference that they would conduct? Morons.
Mark T
Seems that the Met Office has overloaded its model dice.
They may wish to consult overload experts, such as
http://www.nairaland.com/1150145/picture-overloaded-car/2
http://www.nairaland.com/1150145/picture-overloaded-car/3
http://www.jokeroo.com/pictures/car/system-overloaded.html
As a Brit living locally to the Met Office I would like to say what a wonderful job they do and that their grant ought to be increased.
This has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that I use their splendid archives and library frequently and the they contribute huge amounts to the local Exeter economy.
tonyb
I have a number of comments;
1. The repeated forecasts since say 2007 for milder/warmer winters has always surprised me, since if only they looked at CET, it is apparent that whatever may be happening GLOBALLY (temperature anomaly hiatus), as far as the UK is concerned, since 2000, there is a downward temperature anomaly trend, and one would have expected the Met Office to be guided by what CET is telling them. What is the purpose of CET, if it is to be ignored in favour of GLOBAL temperature anomaly data sets?
2. As from 2000, CET has now fallen by about 0.5degC, which is more than half of the last century’s warming!
3. As from 2000, CET winter temperatures have fallen by almost 1.5degC. That fall, which has occurred in just 12 years, is more than the rise in temperatures measured last century!
4. There is no such thing as GLOBAL warming, or GLOBAL climate change, but rather temperature and climate is subject to regional variations. Perhaps even more significantly, the effects of temperature/climate changes are sustained, on a local/regional basis, not globally. It is only for the political mantra, ‘we are all in it together, we must all act together, a world solution is required’, that the spin (and that is what it is), talks about GLOBAL warming/climate change. For many countries (those in high northern latitudes) climate change would be a god send; those countries would benefit enormously from a 3 to 6 degrees warming. For other countries climate change may be a problem. Even sea level rise (which, in any event, is unlikely to be felt globally) may adversely affect some countries, not others, eg., Switzerland is land locked, some countries have coasts only in the Med, Adriatic, Black Sea, if one looks at the Fjord nature of Norway with its coast line rising cliff like from the sea, sea level rise of several metres is unlikely to be a problem, etc.
5. The Met Office problem is that it has been subverted by the GLOBAL warming/change mantra and is failing to address what is happening to the UK. If it had been looking at CET, it would have been aware of the downward trend. How long that downward trend will last for is a different matter and many would say not capable of predictable. However, being alive to the downward trend, ought to have made the forecasts post 2007 far more cautious, and if anything, leaning towards a colder (and snowier) forecast. That is clearly what CET is telling us.
6. Climate change/global warming is also used by governments (and their departments) to cover up bad management. The Met Office have been singing global warming/climate change to cover up governmental failings. Rainfall/flooding is a particularly good example of this.
7. From the late 1980s/early 1990s to about 2007/8, the Met Office were always going on about drought, and water shortages. These predictions of a drier climate and drought conditions were surprising since the rainfall data for the UK since the 1960s has been showing a slight upward trend (ie., the UK is receiving slightly more rainfall, but not to a substantial effect). So why was the Met Office giving the impression of less rainfall/more drought, when its statistics were telling it the very opposite? The answer is to cover up immigration and poor water management. In the South East of England the population since the 1970s has grown by about 10 million (some would claim more). However, in all that time, not one single water reservoir has been built to meet increased demand. The water shortages in the South East (which have led to hose pipe bans) is not due to a shortage of rainfall, but simply due to increased demand (due mainly to immigration) and poor management (the failure to build new reservoirs and get on top of leaky infrastructure). To cover up these governmental failings, and not wanting to alert the public to one of the effects of mass immigration (ie., a strain on infrastructure), the Met Office sings the global warming is to blame mantra.
8. Since about 2007/8, there has been a change in the record being played by the Met Office. It is now all about floods. However, whilst there has been a slight rise in the amount of UK rainfall, it is not substantial. Further, rainfall is falling very much in traditional areas. So why the change in the mantra? The answer again is to cover up governmental failings. Much of the new housing that has been built in the UK (which has been required mainly as a consequence of immigration, and marriage breakdowns) has been build in the flood plains of rivers. Over the last decade many homes have experienced flooding as a consequence of poor town planning, poor building regulation. Flood plains are there for a reason, to enable the river to flood in times of heavy rainfall. Building on flood plains creates an obvious risk of flooding. Usually, this flooding is on the plains on which new housing developments have been built. No surprise there, if one is foolish to build in a flood plain, then flooding is a risk that one can expect. However, sometimes rivers have flooded in areas which in the past were not prone to flooding. This is largely because the natural flood plain has been built on and flood defences put in to protect the development. The river is then unable to flood in its usual area, and backs up causing flooding further up stream. All of this is simply bad management, and to cover up this bad management the Met office sings the global warming/climate change mantra of ‘more extreme weather, more flooding etc’ when in reality very little has changed.
9. The upshot of the points made in 7 and 8 is that in the past it was more critical to cover up poor water management and hence spin global warming/climate change as the cause for water shortages, but now the consequences of poor management are being felt more in flood damage and the inability to obtain flood insurance/house insurance at reasonable cost. So the mantra has now changed to cover up poor town planning/lack of proper building regulation. The rainfall data has not substantially changed, it is only the most serious consequence of poor governance that has changed.
tonyb says:
June 14, 2013 at 11:44 pm
./////////////////////////////////////////
Tony
Being an expert on CET, it might be useful for you, in advance of the meeting, to write to the Met Office providing them with a summary of what CET shows and is showing. CET shows quite a bit of natural variabilty but no correlation with a rise in CO2 levels. It is interesting that we are today experiencing temperatures seen in the 1500s not withstanding the rise in CO2 since pre-industrial times.
I know that you have been reconstructing CET back further in time. The other day I was watching a re-run of the Tudors which ties in with your historical reconstruction. During the marriage to Catherine Howard (I think round about 1540), there was a very warm summer, and a summer without rain. When I saw those scenes, it made me think of the reconstruction that you are undertaking (how sad when Catherine and her ladies were dancing in the muddy remains of a dried up lake, and then in the rain when it finally came!).
THE BRITS DON’T APPRECIATE WHAT THEY HAVE
Sure, the Met is comically bad at predictions, especially those about the future.
However, it could have been comically bad at recording the past as well, like NASA-GISS…
DirkH says:
June 14, 2013 at 3:36 pm
Just to give a rough impression; the simulation of a chaotic system develops an error that grows EXPONENTIALLY over time. Meaning – each DOUBLING of computer power buys you a CONSTANT increase in forecasting horizon in the optimal case.
__________________________________________________________
If engineers believed that, we wouldn’t have jet engines today.
Fortunately, making better models is not just matter of putting in more CPU power.
Being overconfident in immature models is bad.
But so is being too scared to even attempt to advance.
Consulting Soothsayers, Druids, chimps and flipping coins – all far more accurate. It’s probably because these “supercomputers” (that can only run the same garbage code faster – not better) are being fed the criminally “adjusted” data. No reasonable projection can be made of that.
Philip Bradley says:
June 14, 2013 at 6:46 pm
When checking the UK, I got this.
Chief Forecaster’s Commentary
There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to the potential spread of rain from the south across England and Wales during Sunday.
At least the Met Office can admit to a lot of uncertainty in forecasting the weather less than 2 days ahead.
They also admit to UHI effect in their daily forecast but according to their climate unit uHI is non existent.
Adrian O says:
June 15, 2013 at 12:38 am
THE BRITS DON’T APPRECIATE WHAT THEY HAVE
Sure, the Met is comically bad at predictions, especially those about the future.
However, it could have been comically bad at recording the past as well, like NASA-GISS…
They are !! CRU 2 (adjusted), CRU3 (adjusted), CRU 4 adjusted. UK Met = GISS + NOAA/NASA
tonyb says:
June 14, 2013 at 11:44 pm
As a Brit living locally to the Met Office I would like to say what a wonderful job they do and that their grant ought to be increased.
CREEP 🙂
MinB says:
June 14, 2013 at 5:29 pm
“I hear a lot about the poor Met forecasts on this blog. I’m curious about how well national agencies in other countries are forecasting, e.g., Germany (DWD?)?”
The DWD was never stupid enough to put out a seasonal forecast.