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How about a thread devoted to the NYT’s piece in their regular Tuesday science supplement today, on THE PAUSE. I see this as a major development. This is the great bastion of western climate alarmism conceding the lack of additional warming. The piece itself is full of self-serving hypocrisy, but also surprisingly frank in some ways…
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/science/index.html
Just as an FYI for everyone, tech news site Ars technica bans anyone who posts dissenting comments in their climate articles. Have a different view? Ban.
The World Is Stupid-You Can’t Fix It!: But Could Something Be Done?
http://books.google.ca/books?id=_gKU9Z1h7K0C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_vpt_buy#v=onepage&q&f=false
With regards to Polar Bears…page 84.
Hank busted Keenan, and Keenan is dodging and MIA….
You’d think if your paper was that big of a deal….you might want to correct it’s mistakes
========================
James Sexton says:
June 9, 2013 at 11:53 am
Regarding the Keenan/Met dustup. Hank, a fine statistician did a head to head comparison of the models. AR1 vs ARIMA 3,1,0. Hands down ARIMA out performs AR1 in every possible metric. Well written without the hard to follow statistical jargon and formulas. It utterly destroys the Met position.
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/keenan-confirmed-met-position-laid-to-utter-waste/
As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…
Bearing in mind that the earth’s climate has been trending warmer since the last Ice Age, that brilliant statement could be applied to almost any period in the past 12,000 years (excepting, of course, the LIA). The same holds true for sea level rise, all without the help of anthropogenic CO2. It’s amazing how frightening ‘facts’ can appear when you’re ignorant of the context. As Goethe said, “Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.”
There is an Interesting article over at The Resilient Earth blog describing the problems with prematurely failing solar panels:
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/solar-power-failing-world-wide
“Most of the concerns over quality center on China, home to the majority of the world’s solar panel manufacturing capacity. Inspections of Chinese factories on behalf of developers and financiers revealed that over the last 18 months even the most reputable companies are substituting cheaper, untested materials. Others are outsourcing production to smaller, less reputable companies. SolarBuyer, a company based in Marlborough, Mass., discovered defect rates of 5.5% to 22% during audits of 50 Chinese factories over the last 18 months.”
According to the article, cheap solar panels are not likely to last anywhere near the 20 year manufacturers’ expectation, with many failing in 2.5 years. Another boondoggle in the making?
Here is something that climate and geoscience have to work out among themselves one day, until than the message carrier will be blamed from promoting pseudoscience or be declared an insane crank, just because there are many natural events for which we have no adequate explanation.
Here we go: Ob and Yenisey are two largest sources of the Arctic’s fresh water inflow, discharging ~32,000 m3/sec of fresh water in the Arctic Ocean. Some years later portion of these waters will pass through the Denmark Strait with the East Greenland Current, one of the main contributors to the sub-polar gyre -SPG, affecting salinity and thermo-haline circulation. The SPG is the home of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilation – AMO.
And what I see in the data is the direct correlation of the AMO (generated by the SPG) with geomagnetic changes 12 years earlier, at the delta of the two great Siberian rivers 6,000km away.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/YAMAL-GMF-AMO.htm
Further away from this general area the correlation progressively weakens. Just result of observations.
Is this against the laws of physics or just a plain coincidence lasting whole of 140 years, decade by decade?
Anybody know of a reasonable approach to estimating joules required per millimetre of SLR? I know, depends on how deep down the energy goes; thermal coefficient of expansion varies and all that, but it’s more the contribution due to melting ice and irregular bounding shoreline that are giving me fits. Any suggestions welcome!
Is there anything new with the Climate Gate emails since the password was released?
Anthony personally should see this!!!!! Someone is posting comments on Bishop Hill’s website using his (Anthony’s) name. Judging from the comments it is not Anthony although I was fooled the first couple of times. I can’t believe there are not warm relations between Anthony and the Bishop so Anthony may want to put a stop to the practice.
Some one is also posting there using Pointman’s handle. I know he reads WUWT so this is a heads up for him, too. When I get to Pointman in my travels around the web I intend to alert him.
bladeshearer says:
June 11, 2013 at 1:10 pm
As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…
=====
most (but not all) of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently…so the present warming is not unprecedented
which is only a fraction of a degree…which does not denote a trend
The sun has one very small sunspot about to rotate from our view. Usually Spaceweather.com has a picture of one or two spots rotating from the backside of the sun but they don’t right now. Wonder if we are going to have our first SSN of zero in the next day or so.
With all the Murray Salby discussion going on, it got me wondering about setting up a multi-decadal experiment to measure CO2 outgassing from the Pacific Ocean. If I was going to do that, where would be a good location for the measurements ……….. ?
bladeshearer says:
June 11, 2013 at 1:10 pm
As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…
It’s amazing how frightening ‘facts’ can appear when you’re ignorant of the context. As Goethe said, “Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.”
—————————————-
I like Schiller’s take on it:
“Against Ignorance, even the gods contend in vain”.
‘The NYT says
‘Rarely do they mention that most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently’
The author is confused about the difference between ‘it has warmed’ and ‘it is warming’. Or between the data itself and its first derivative wrt time.
Consider a ball thrown into the air. In the first half the ball is going up. Its height is increasing and its direction is up. The long term trend (average) of its position is up. At some point it reaches its highest point. The direction is neither up nor down, and the long term trend is still up. On its way down the direction is obviously down but still higher that when it started (there has been warming). And its average height (long term trend) is still up. Only when it returns to its starting point do all the indicators go to zero.
Important point. Long term trends and recent observations do not tell you anything about what is happening now ..just about what has happened. Newton (and Leibnitz) understood this 350 years ago and invented calculus to handle such problems.
It is a shame that today’s climatologists and their apologists do not seem to have progressed thus far in their study of scientific mathematics as few of them have grasped it.
If the world ends whole you’re gone, we’ll post something about it. ;-))
I stumbled on this today. For those who think UHI or Watts et al. 2012‘s paper (link at upper right of this page) concerning siting issues is much ado about nothing, I’d love to hear an explanation.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/wxhistory/wxhistory.html
Here’s the text in case it can’t be retrieved after today. (Bold is mine.)
“NWS Wilmington Ohio Weather History
Please select the desired date to view the weather history for that day, thet hit submit.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Submit
June 11
Ohio’s coldest June temperature occurred in 1972, but more impressive was the difference in temperature noticed between urban and rural weather stations. In Columbus, the difference was 12 degrees!
Multiple casualties resulted from the 5 mile path of a F-2 tornado that went through Fairfield, Perry, and Licking Counties in 1922.“
PS That record low was 35*F
PaulH says June 11, 2013 at 1:14 pm
“There is an Interesting article over at The Resilient Earth blog describing the problems with prematurely failing solar panels…”
That’s not a bad finesse, Paul, and a good point. China supports (say) the UN’s/Greens’ drive to ‘renewables’ and they corner the market in PVs. The West installs, and comes to rely on PVs, which the Chinese have made sure will not survive too long. West sees excess cost in maintaining ‘renewables’ and also suffers power outages, while the Dragon forges ahead with its agenda.
Not bad for a conspiracy. No?
Here is one for you…
Reblog of a story on a SLAPP suit and WInd Turbines:
http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/2013/06/09/legal-bullies-wind-turbine-corporation-picks-ridiculous-excuse-to-go-after-environmentalist/
Ezra Levant, Edmonton Sun
A $32 billion energy corporation has filed a massive lawsuit against an Ontario environmentalist named Esther Wrightman. It’s a SLAPP suit: Strategic litigation against public participation. It’s not really about legal arguments. It’s about crushing Wrightman with legal bills and burning up her time, so she can’t spend time campaigning against them.
The lawsuit doesn’t allege Wrightman vandalized their property, or trespassed, or anything like that. Their complaint is that, on her homemade website, Wrightman mocked the company’s name. She even had the temerity to publish a satirical version of their logo. That’s it. That’s why they hired three lawyers at one of Canada’s largest law firms, McCarthy Tetrault, to sue her into the ground.
And the only reason you have not heard of this lawsuit — the Canadian Civil Liberties Association is not defending her free speech, the CBC has not put this on their nightly news — is because the corporate bully here is not an oil company like Exxon. It’s a wind turbine company called NextEra. See, that kind of bullying is OK.
Welcome to the world of Green Energy!
Antarctic sea ice forming very rapidly as we go into the SH winter. A 500,000 increase over the anomaly (ie the average increase over this period) in the last week, although it has fallen back a bit today.
Interestingly, the increase in Antarctic sea ice started around the time the time CFCs and other ozone destroying gases started to decline and was a predicted consequence. Maybe climate science has finally got a prediction right.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n11/fig_tab/ngeo1296_F3.html
Be interesting to see what happens next SH spring, with the albedo increase from more sea ice.
Very weird, but Glenn Tamblyn agreed that Arctic modelling was, shall we say, less than accurate…
https://theconversation.com/dont-care-bears-should-we-be-worried-about-polar-bears-14560#comment_169618
Carbon dioxide is quite bewitching to some, here’s C02 in action…
http://www.wimp.com/dramaticlipsync/
That should have been,
A 500,000 sq km increase IN the anomaly
Latitude says:
June 11, 2013 at 1:08 pm
Hank busted Keenan, and Keenan is dodging and MIA….
You’d think if your paper was that big of a deal….you might want to correct it’s mistakes
========================
James Sexton says:
June 9, 2013 at 11:53 am
Regarding the Keenan/Met dustup. Hank, a fine statistician did a head to head comparison of the models. AR1 vs ARIMA 3,1,0. Hands down ARIMA out performs AR1 in every possible metric. Well written without the hard to follow statistical jargon and formulas. It utterly destroys the Met position.
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/keenan-confirmed-met-position-laid-to-utter-waste/
=================================================
Err…… a little clarity. Hanks findings support what Keenan was saying. The Met has it all wrong, and Keenan was right. The AR(1) model is useless for determining anything, and on every measurable metric, Keenan’s ARIMA was shown to be superior.