Quote of the Week – marketing the consensus before it's '97% Cooked'

Ryan says:
June 4, 2013 at 4:23 pm
““If the conclusions were foregone, why do the research at all?”
Because there are a lot of people motivated to lie about it, forestalling progress addressing one of the greatest threats we have ever faced.”
Wait a moment. What does increased CO2 do? Promotes greening of arid regions. What does Global Warming do -assuming for a moment the CO2AGW theory were not already falsified by the last 15 years of non-warming- ? Increases biodiversity. As warm regions are generally having a higher biodiversity than cold ones.
So these are the things you call the greatest threat we have ever faced, a higher biodiversity and a greening of arid regions. And don’t come to me with sea level rise; coastal regions have been under threat of flooding throughout history so if they are not prepared now – like Long Island – that is entirely their mistake.
There are two possibilities, either you are not able to think rationally or you have a vested interest in the CO2AGW gravy train.

Sadly, the 97% consensus meme has been taken up and totally misrepresented by the Sydney Morning Herald:
“The proportion of scientific papers published on the subject that reject the man-made origins of climate change is, however, far smaller than the proportion of sceptics on the Coalition benches.
Of about 12,000 scientific papers published worldwide in the 20 years to 2011, only 1.9 per cent did, a survey last month by James Cook University showed, and 97 per cent argued that climate change was real and man-made.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/canary-isle-shows-climate-change-is-real-20130603-2nm5r.html#ixzz2VLihNMgM.
Oh well, one can only expect it, but its about time the scientific community actually started correcting these mistakes.

Paul Homewood says:
June 5, 2013 at 3:13 am
“The trouble is that the media have already bought the 97% meme, hook, line and sinker.”
It’s not “buying” Paul it’s “selling” from the same political tribe. You’re giving them credit for making “honest” mistakes. A usual skeptic failing I’m quite weary of. The consensus and media meme that goes with it is aimed at the public out of CORRUPTION and left-wing DOGMA to the Proletariat. It’s not because they’re stupid but that they are evil.
Most media are operatives are not journalists seeking truth at all. What kind of world do you think you’re living in? Academics in this field, politicians, media and green interests are GUILTY as sin, they have upsurped the Republic with lies. There is no innocence or naivete involved in AGW leadership advocacy. Some skeptics are hated for this understanding while others skeptics dream of Purple Unicorns and finding common ground through reasoning. That’s what I call DENIAL of the facts and history of AGW totalitarian goals.
Better to be honest and hated than the game being played for the most part by mainstream skeptics. The worst sort of intellectual appeasement given the facts at hand.

Ryan says:
June 4, 2013 at 4:23 pm
“If the conclusions were foregone, why do the research at all?”
…..
Because there are a lot of people motivated to lie about it, forestalling progress addressing one of the greatest threats we have ever faced.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..
I think you have the wrong end of the discussion it is cooling not warming that is the greatest problem facing earth. The actual debate should be when we go into the next glaciation and is the climate bi-stable? If it is bi-stable, how unstable does the climate become as the solar insolation value needed to tip the earth in glaciation is approached?
New research shows the violent weather swings that occur during the descent into an ice age can occur within a decade. This is weather that could happen NOW not thousands of years from now if the climate is bi-stable.

Abrupt Temperature Changes in the Western Mediterranean over the Past 250,000 Years
….Predictable orbital variations led to insolation changes, which triggered less frequent but very intense oscillations. Accordingly, the last glacial inception (substage 5d) has been attributed to a connection between orbital forcing and thermohaline circulation beyond a freshwater threshold within the ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice system…

Woods Hole Observatory also warned about wide temperature swings a few years ago:

Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried?
….Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earth vs climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries….
This new paradigm of abrupt climate change has been well established over the last decade by research of ocean, earth and atmosphere scientists at many institutions worldwide. But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policy makers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world leaders may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur….

So what is the magic insolation value? That is the where research dollars should be spent.
One Paper says:

….The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2, which is the 65oN July insolation for 118 kyr BP (ref. 9). This value is only slightly below today’s value of 428 Wm2. Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again…..”
http://www.particle-analysis.info/LEAP_Nature__Sirocko+Seelos.pdf

That “… sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2…” is where the actual debate is.
There was even a committee formed and a report published: ‘Abrupt Climate Change – Inevitable Surprises’ from the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences Richard B. Alley, chair
The take home is at the tipping point solar insolation the climate can change within a decade.
.From the opening paragraph in the executive summary:

…Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe.Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age….
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347

This is what scientists who agree with CO2 causing ‘Global Warming’ have to say on the subject:

….the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….
http://lorraine-lisiecki.com/LisieckiRaymo2005.pdf

“….Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379107002715

Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
….Below, we consider each inception in detail in relation to astronomical and CO2 changes (Figs. 3 and 4).
MIS 5e: glacial inception … large decline in summer insolation (110 W m−2 ) and associated feedbacks during MIS 5e appear to have been sufficient to lead to inception, despite the relatively high CO2 concentrations of 256 ± 3 ppmv.
MIS 7e: a large decline in summer insolation (92 W m−2 ) coupled with a considerable drop in CO2 concentrations to 244.5 ± 0.5 ppmv …. The short interglacial duration (9 kyr) is likely a result of the strong eccentricity-precession variations and the occurrence of the obliquity minimum (232 kyr BP) near the insolation minimum (231 kyr BP).
MIS 9e: glacial inception … occurred at the summer insolation minimum… Insolation and CO2 declined by 78 W m−2 (to 463 W m−2 ) and 43 ppmv (to 256 ± 3 ppmv), respectively.
MIS 11c: interglacial values persisted over two insolation peaks. Glacial inception occurred… Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at inception remained high (259–265 ppmv), but summer insolation had decreased to 466 W m−2
MIS 13a: interglacial values persisted over two insolation peaks. Glacial inception occurred…, when summer insolation was relatively high at 500 W m−2 , but CO2 concentrations had dropped to 225 ± 2 ppmv. Glacial inception appears to have taken place well ahead of the minimum in summer insolation (475 kyr BP) and the minimum in obliquity (474 kyr BP)…
MIS 15a: glacial inception occurred…, when summer insolation was 480 W m−2 and CO2 concentrations 240 ± 5 ppmv. The timing of inception post-dates the insolation minimum by 5 kyr and pre-dates the obliquity minimum by 5 kyr.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/cp-8-1473-2012.pdf (PDF raw)
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/cp-8-1473-2012-hlt.pdf (PDF highlighted)

Discussion of new paper above: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
So far no one has actually pinned down the magic solar insolation number (probably because there are other forcings involved) but they all seem to think keeping the CO2 levels high is a really good idea if we don’t want to head into glaciation especially since another bit of research found: Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California.
More information on new papers in geology/glaciation are mentioned and discussed at WUWT:
The Antithesis
On “Trap-Speed”, ACC and the SNR
The End Holocene, or How to Make Out Like a ‘Madoff’ Climate Change Insurer:

geran says:
June 4, 2013 at 4:25 pm
Ryan says…
>>>>>>>>>
WOW….
(They will never lose their fear of CO2. Imagine their nightmares–molecules of CO2, with chainsaws, and tentacles, and three eyes…..)
>>>>>>>>>>
A shock cure for that fear would be placing them in a sealed chamber with no CO2 since they think it is a ‘Pollutant’
http://www.normalbreathing.com/CO2-blood-pH-respiratory-alkalosis.php
http://www.normalbreathing.com/co2-lung-damage.php#.UNB89LARh0E
A fitting ‘punishment’ for those pushing the CO2 is EVIL scam.