According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
The river looks like it is melting to my untrained eye. It is going to be a close one.
Do people bet on this? Or is it a scientific thing?
Breaking News,
Al Gores Dirty Climate thugs spotted just out of web cam view up river trying to get the ice to break up before record is broken using sludge hammers and dynamite.
LOL..Not true breaking news story , just a little Monday morning humor..
Enjoy the paint drying on a humid day( ice break up).
Meanwhile there is a lot of ice breaking up going on in the Yukon
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/slideshow/photos-yukon-river-breakup-floods-alaska-villages
So I’m wondering if the flooding, raising the local river levels, actually reduce the water flow of the Tenana river. If so, that could decrease the wear off of the ice and delay the Nenana event.
Looking at the climate comparison 1962 and 1963 were really hard winters in N Europe, as were the last three years (this winter especially so). So the 1964 record for this tripod mirrors the European climate recod for cold winters.
Bob Tisdale says:
May 20, 2013 at 2:36 am
It’s still hanging on, Bob 🙂
Right now (9:18 EDT) it’s a frosty 28F in Nenana.
By the way, has anyone in the weather media mentioned the record low temperatures in Nenana over the weekend??
I wager it’ll break up on May 27, 1:13PM Alaska time.
Well, I’ll be ready to toast a NEW RECORD for the Nenana Ice Classic at 3:42 PM EDT today…
🙂
@frank K – since the time is in standard, and the east cost is on Daylight, I think that pushes it another hour. Make it 4:42 EDT.
Anyone live near the Nenana river that post on this trend? Someone has to get some off the ice when the breakup starts. E-bay, Record breaking ice for sale….???
So 9:33 on the webcam clock would be a new record?
Current record is 11:41 AM AST / 12:41 PM ADT so web cam will have to show 12:42 (ADT, which would be 11:42 AST).
@Steve Divine – I was unsure if Alaska went on Daylight, so I just did the change from EDT. Thanks for the information. But do they really need to save daylight when they get 20 hours of it? 😉
What about the academic calendar?
I’d fancy a chunk of that record breaking Nenana ice in my Macallan’s 18 YO. (If I took ice in my whisky, that is. Being a true Scotsman, of course, I drink my whisky neat.)
In this case the only clock and calendar that count are the ones used by the Nenana Ice Classic.
According to Google Earth at the moment the temperatures are -2C near Nenana and -8C up river at the moment. (28F to 15F more or less…)
To mark this exciting event I would like to dedicate a song to the IPCC..
Far more fitting than it should be..
“In the end, it will go quite quickly…”
I think it is important to keep in mind we are talking about two different records here.
The first is the Nenanna classic record by their own clock that is only dependent on their time measuring system.
Second is the meteorological proxy record for temperature as indicated by the ice breakup. As noted up thread probably the best way to measure that would be the time elapsed since the winter solstice on both 1964 (and other previous breakup dates/times) and the current year. By using that measure you bypass all manner of debate over how to treat leap years and such.
Does not matter a lot in the real world but fun to watch the paint dry and consider mother nature is trying to tell us something here.
Is it normal for there to be a large temperature increase during the day in Alaska at this time of year? From what I can see of the weather forecasts, things are really going to warm up over the next couple of days.
From the NWS:
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
439 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AKZ221-210000-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FA.A.0003.130523T0000Z-130525T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING…NENANA…ANDERSON…TANANA…MINTO…
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS…RAMPART…LAKE MINCHUMINA…LIVENGOOD
439 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013
…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM RAMPART TO TANANA…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM RAMPART TO TANANA
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* THE BREAKUP FRONT ON THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
CIRCLE AND FORT YUKON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURGE OF WATER AND
ICE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BREAKUP FRONT CAUSED MAJOR FLOODING IN
CIRCLE SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWNRIVER AND REACH
RAMPART AND THEN TANANA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
* THE RIVER WATCH TEAM HAS DETERMINED THAT THE ICE FROM FORT YUKON
TO STEVENS VILLAGE APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING…ARCHED AND
LIFTING. THE SURGE OF WATER AND ICE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAKUP
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRAVEL DOWNRIVER STEADILY AND
BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT REDUCING THE AMOUNT THE RIVER WILL RISE.
HOWEVER ANY RESISTANCE TO THE ONCOMING BREAKUP FRONT COULD ALLOW
THE WATER TO AGAIN COLLECT BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD RISK TO DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS EARLY TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. WATER LEVELS CAN RISE VERY QUICKLY WHEN
AN ICE JAM OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A COMMUNITY.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
&&
$$
Warmist response adjusted for political / financial consumption..
Hardly surprising at all..
97% of viewers are warm-mongers willing (and probably praying0 for the tripod to fall.
I can’t help but think that I am watching this piece of metal on ice with the entire WUWT community. What an eclectic bonding moment (or several hours, or day or two – whatever it be).
Here is a Panaramio picture of the bridge just downstream (to the left) of the tripod. Nothing easy for scale, if there is 15′ clearance at the first truss, it looks like 20′ above the ice level.
http://www.panoramio.com/photo_explorer#view=photo&position=2226&with_photo_id=33542027&order=date_desc&user=765658
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130519/circle-hit-major-flooding-yukon-river-surges
“A flood watch has been issued for … Nenana, …. from Wednesday afternoon to Friday Afternoon.”
As my wife left for work this morning she asked, “If the ice breaks up today, any chance of getting you back?” Maybe I’ll hold out for a better offer.
faboutlaws says:
May 20, 2013 at 8:12 am
Anthony? Sometimes… Just sometimes… That “Like” button is needed…
+1