According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
The ice has frozen again except for the steadily widening main current. The record is 8 + hours away. Tomorrows warmth should finish the ice.
Ben says:
May 19, 2013 at 9:37 pm
“There may also be horizontal wooden beams in the ice, at the bottom of the tower legs.”
Yes, there is a cross-beam frame underneath that holds the legs.
Here is a picture of the “tripod” from August 2003. It seems the construction has changed a bit—this model had a horizontal mid-section frame:
http://www.pbase.com/henkbinnendijk/image/23089632
Willis also has a summer picture in his May 15 post:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/15/the-icy-nenana-river
At 10:12 am yesterday (and earlier on the earlier Nenana thread) I wrote “I therefore declare that 2013′s ice break-up will be a record if it occurs later than May 20th 8:33am.” This is in relation to time since the spring equinox. But someone pointed out that the records are kept in Alaskan standard time, so we have to add an hour to get Alaskan daylight savings time, so 9:33am on the webcam clock is the crucial time to break the record (by this measure, it would also be good if it beat 12:41pm webcam time to beat the actual time in 1964).
Just over 12 hours to go to the first point.
Rich.
Sorry, I mean just over 10 hours to go.
Rich.
“Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
‘The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.’”
I don’t mind Dr. Jeffries getting some credit but we should also acknowledge earlier groundbreaking work by Stanford phenologists and AGW promoters Dr. Sagarin and Dr. Micheli:
Raphael Sagarin
Fiorenza Micheli
Climate Change in Nontraditional Data Sets
Science, sciencemag.org, volume 294, 26 OCT 2001
“A celebrated betting pool in Alaska is providing researchers with a remarkably accurate record of global climate change, according to a new study in the journal Science. And the results show that spring is coming earlier and earlier.”
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2001/october31/alaskabet-1031.html
Let’s give credit where credit is due. A “remarkably accurate record” trumps a “pretty good proxy” any day of the week. And they beat Dr. Jeffries to it by 8 years.
I’m going to make proper English tea, with boiling water, while I wait…
and watch the pot closely… 😉
‘The canary in the coal mine’?
How does this correlate with [Arctic] ice levels?
I meant Arctic ice levels.
and today is a day of prayer in N. Ireland for an end to the 14 month weather nightmare for farmers .. out of food and money ..
“For those who can’t stand to wait any more and need some sort of closure, this is what it is going to look like when it goes (from 2011)”
Watching IANs video of ice out on 2011, it would appear the tripod does not tip, but floats on down the river aways before ice out horn blows. There was a large bit of water between the close shore and the tripod when it started to float. So I say we easily have the record, if not at least 24 hours to go.
I will be honest I could not watch the whole video, i had to forward to the end.
OK, it’s 20th May now, and still standing. Can we call it the Neener-Neener ice classic yet or do we have to wait another day?
”
OK, it’s 20th May now, and still standing. Can we call it the Neener-Neener ice classic yet or do we have to wait another day?”
Have to wait another day to tie, since the previousl record of May 20 was set during a leap year.
It’s now May 20 Alaskan standard time. Break-up no earlier than the same day. I think record will be set. If nothing else I’ve enjoyed the company. Many have likened this to watching grass grow. Actually my 600 hot pepper seedlings have grown a lot more over the last few days than the tower has moved. Fingers crossed.
Looks like it’s starting to sink at 1:33:49. Maybe not.
In the video from the ’11 break-up, the ice along the shore showed considerable movement before total break-up. Little or no movement is observable in the time lapses yet.
Here is the Barrow Sea Ice Webcam where one can spend many hours, days, months watching the Arctic sea ice break up.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
John from Holt: see See – [owe to Rich — May 19, 2013 at 10:12 am] for a demolition of your concern. Anyway, the Ice Classic organizers keep it simple, good for them.
While we’re all waiting with bated breath for the ice break up, we can review other comparable events on the web http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/6495349/Is-the-HMRC-tax-video-the-most-boring-on-YouTube.html
Leon0112 says:
May 20, 2013 at 1:22 am
“How does this correlate with [Arctic] ice levels?”
Not sure but judging from this: Leon0112 says:
May 20, 2013 at 1:22 am
How does this correlate with [Arctic] ice levels?
Not sure but judging from this:
“Russian explorers headed home Thursday after proving it is possible to drive from Russia to Canada across the North Pole, in buses with bloated tires over drifting ice, using a pickaxe to clear the way. ”
http://phys.org/news/2013-05-russians-russia-canada-north-pole.html
there is still some arctic sea ice around too 🙂
Iceagenow reports on record snow extent for the Northern Hemisphere for the period November 2012 to April 2013 since 1966.
Not so long ago Warmists were complaining about declining spring snow cover. This is climate change my friends and that’s why most sceptics insist that climate change is real and is happening.
http://iceagenow.info/2013/05/snow-cover-sets-record/
H/t
http://icecap.us/
Thanks to:
Colorado Wellington says: May 20, 2013 at 1:04 am
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2001/october31/alaskabet-1031.html
“The authors analyzed the entire Ice Classic record and discovered that, on average, the Tanana River breakup occurs 5.5 days sooner than it did back in 1917. The earliest breakup on record took place on April 20, 1998; the latest on May 20, 1964.”
“These results show that springtime is coming earlier,” notes Sagarin. “This trend also matches up pretty well with historic temperature data from Nenana and Fairbanks.”
“”Warmer climate would be expected to advance the time of breakup” !!!
Someone smarter than me is going to have to plot the dates, I’m sure it’s a hockey stick that would make Marcott (sp?) blush, or not…
May snow in the UK and Iberian Peninsula!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324803/UK-weather-Its-middle-May-Two-inches-snow-months-rainfall-day-65mph-winds-hit-Britain.html
http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/snow-hits-iberian-peninsula-103344277.html
OK – I know it’s weather but I’m having fun…
Adam
From the looks of the channel that has melted in the center of the river out and the previous years videos on YouTube. It may be few more days to a week before the ice out event starts.
209 Ice break video..
Yep – freezing here in the UK – I normally (you know, ‘pre-temperature-standstill’) put my pool heat on around the middle of April – certainly not going to put it on until the beginning of June this year..!
Has someone started an over-under? Did not find in other comments after quick scan.