According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
It occurs to me that the ice excavated to slot in the tripod could exactly equal the weight of the tripod. That would be a good design — I’ll bet they do it like that.
Always worth remembering that the frozen river is down stream of Fairbanks, Alaska’s second largest city, with an urban population of 51,926. So it isn’t a crystal clear wilderness stream but one that is subject to urban influences. I have no idea how they keep the streets of Fairbanks ice free but any run off from that would be one small factor for instance…
This is almost as exciting as watching soccer. Check back in half an hour and it’s still 0 – 0 ( or 0 – 1).
Pontifical University is the leading university of the Roman-Catholic Church, the University of Alaska Fairbanks is the leasing university of the Church of Global Warming. Its pope is IARC chief scientist Dr. John Walsh.
any of you WUWT readers in the area that can go there and give us a wave! LOL
Jimbo says:
May 19, 2013 at 1:52 pm
“…wonder what Martin Jeffries thinks today.”
Perhaps:
M Courtney says:
May 19, 2013 at 12:05 pm
How do we know it’s a good proxy? We do it the old-fashioned way. We take a look at the observations. The following chart shows the normalized Nenana breakup date versus all temperature stations within 100km, also normalized.
Me, I’d call Nenana a pretty good proxy for the temperature changes of the last century, and this century as well.
w.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013
…COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANCHORAGE…
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 18TH 2013 PEAKED AT 40 DEGREES
AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE ON SAND LAKE ROAD.
THIS MARKS THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
SET A NEW LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. IT ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 45 DEGREES SET ON MAY 18TH 1922.
THE RECORD FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WAS EXTENDED ONE MORE DAY ON THE
18TH AS 0.1 INCHES WAS RECORDED. THIS SNOWFALL MAKES THE 2012-2013
SNOW SEASON THE LONGEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1917…WITH 232 DAYS
BETWEEN THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON SEPTEMBER 29TH 2012 TO THE
LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON MAY 18TH. THE PREVIOUS MARK OF 231 DAYS
WAS SET YESTERDAY…WHICH BROKE THE 230 DAY SEASON SET 1981-1982.
“It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …”
Wellllll. Not quite so for me. In fact,after three hours today,I HAD to put some coffee on just to watch it drip!
We’ve set records all over the state here in Alaska, with what has looked like an Alfred Hitchcock movie over the past week, with migratory birds dropping left and right from cold and lack of open ground to feed from.
Some of these birds have turned into cannibals, and that is not a good or natural sight…
At least the fox and scavenger birds have full stomachs.
Don B says:
May 19, 2013 at 8:41 am
The record late breakup was in 1964, a leap year, so a new record could be set on May 21.
Not true. Weather does not care about calendar dates, it is governed by the tropical year. And there’s 49.00000027 tropical years between 1964 May 20 11:41 AKST and 2013 May 20 08:30 AKST (to be shown in image as 09:30 AKDT). Therefore we have less than 19 hours left until record right now.
Maybe the clue that it is about to go will be a marked increase in the number of cars on the shore. Given that it is still Sunday afternoon, the local interest doesn’t seem all that great so far…maybe they know best!
“Well, first of all, do we need to? Don’t leap years already bring the standard calendar pretty close to the astronomical calendar? Since the breakup is always after Mar 1, there is no need to ‘account for’ the leap year. ”
That’s just my point , if we work on ‘day of year’ there is a progressive drift over 4 years and jump back. There is also a drift of almost a full day over the full period due to the precession of the equinox.
I’m rather of the opinion that this is small fry in relation to the annual variance in the record, so I’m not going to bother unless I find a reason.
“When it’s springtime in Alaska, it’s forty below” – Johnny Horton: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOT5VlbUsYk
David Chappell says: local interest doesn’t seem all that great so far…maybe they know best!
They’ve probably all lost the bet already !
It must be down to a handful of eccentric bets by now.
Has anyone charted the breakup vs. moon phase/tidal influences?
There’s more money on it than betting of grass growing.
@Greg
“down to a handful of eccentric bets” -not after 127,400 bets. There are probably some bets in June.
What time is it in Nenana? can somebody answer that question to me.
@ur momisugly Fred Martushev see the timestamp in upper right of the webcam image
Fred Martushev says:
May 19, 2013 at 4:40 pm
What time is it in Nenana? can somebody answer that question to me.
_________________
Look at the upper right hand corner of the tower cam pic.
Fred- Here’s a live link:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
I’d keep a closer watch on the live updates, but I need to get back to the laundromat and watch the clothes tumble in the dryer
But…… wy when people posting comments or questions , it shows one hour defrents?
The wind is really blowing those guy wires around! And it looks like people are starting to use the parking lot more. If they’re locals, they probably have a better feel for H-hour than the rest of us in the lower 48.
Its 4 pm in Nenana now, night is approaching which is forecast to be cold, -3 to -4 C, which should stabilise the ice a little. The forecast is for rising temperatures in the next few days and some possible rain on Thursday which could be decisive.