According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
The laptop that I had all of my image editing software on it just died and I haven’t looked for/found the license keys for a reinstall on another yet, but it should be easy to paste in Willis’ photo as a base and overlay a semi-transparent layer of the current (from above, not the Nenana page) image on top and line them up. That’s what I would have done the day before yesterday, anyway. 🙂
Full quote of Dr Jeffries from WUWT in 2009:
” By this measure, spring comes to central Alaska 10 days earlier than in 1960, said geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks — and that trend is accelerating. “The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century,” Dr. Jeffries said.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/10/river-ice-in-alaska-pretty-good-proxy-for-climate-change-in-the-20th-century/
Do you think that now that its not “accelerating” and we may break an all time record late date that Dr. Jeffries will be mugging this for the cameras? We’ll see.
A little ‘Binging’ yields a Nenana River Ice Breakup at 11:41 P.M. on May 20, 1964. Well over 24 hours from now. I think I’ll check back in a day or two.
Tom Mahany, Coshocton, Ohio
Thomas the value you give for 11:41 p.m. is incorrect according to the actual log at official website it is an AM value
One thing I asked the iceClassic website and did not get an answer is, “Why is the tripod placed 24 inches down in to the ice?” Wouldn’t that create a weak point? Wouldn’t that help the tripod drop in to the water sooner than if the tripod was sitting on top of the ice?
Am sure Willis has the answer.
NENANA ICE COMPETITION RUINED BY GLOBAL WARMING
Scientists in New York are blaming global warming for upsetting the Nenana Ice Competition stating that a recent navel survey clearly indicated that the heat energy that would normally cause the river to release its life giving waters to the downstream environment had been redirected to deep ocean sequestation where it was being used by the oil industry to kill sharks.
“Nenana is in Alaska which is far away. If you were to go outside here you would see that it is a warm day. This means it must be cold in Alaska.” said Given Schmith of the Great International Science Swindle. When challenged about it being warm outside Mr. Schmith indicated that he was not in the entrtainment industry and left the room.
Residence of Alaska were reported to have said, “It’s the Nenana Ice Classic.”
Somewhat related to this. I was up at the family cottage on Lake Winnipeg this weekend for the Victoria Day long weekend, the lake is still completely frozen to the horizon in all directions. Talking to the neighbors who have had a cottage in the same spot (near Gimli, Mb.) they have never seen any ice on the lake on the long weekend, never mind being completely frozen over.
Why does everyone tell me I can’t believe my lying eyes when I tell them it is not warming….
Don B May 19, 2013 at 8:41 am
The record late breakup was in 1964, a leap year, so a new record could be set on May 21
I believe a person could argue a 1/4 day delta for an apples to apples (err ice break to ice break) record. 2012 was a leap year and we are 1/4 day/6 hours behind from a solar perspective. I must view negatively anyone pontificating that the human calendar dominates the solar calendar.
Given the chaotic feedbacks in the actual breakup, it is now in unusual range:
any theory or hypothesis that did not predict it are suspect.
I’ll repeat the comment I made on the earlier Nenana thread today. Summary is that relative to astronomical time, breakup will be a new record if it occurs later than 8:33am tomorrow.
“HenryP said “1964 was a leap year, and the equivalent time in days in 2013 would be 21 May?”, and has been praised for this analysis. But since minutes count for the Nenana sweepstake, so should they for the measurement of the record. So we should be measuring astronomically, with reference to the time since the vernal equinox.
A first cut would say that since 2013 is one year after a leap year, the equinox occurred about 6 hours later than in 2012, so instead of May 20th 11:41am we should set the target to be May 20th 5:41pm.
A second cut needs to actually find out when the equinox occurred in 1964 and in 2013. The wonders of Google (or other good search engines) reveal the site http://ns1763.ca/equinox/vern1788-2211.html where you can see that, surprising to some (but not me), the equinox was actually _earlier_ in 2013 than in 1964. Namely, both were on March 20th but 1964′s was at
1410UT and 2013′s was at 1102UT. Therefore we should subtract 3h08m from the target time.
I therefore declare that 2013′s ice break-up will be a record if it occurs later than May 20th 8:33am.”
Rich.
Susan Corwin, May 19, 2013 at 9:56 am
And you could look at the historical data to see if there was an actual correlation between ice breakup dates and leap years.
I wonder if the change to daylight savings had an impact [/tongueincheek]
But, but, but wait. Forget the ice what about New York??????
Huh?
Oh for humanity:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/19/heatwave-deaths-new-york-city-rise?CMP=twt_fd&CMP=SOCxx2I2
Urban heat islands even get a mention.
Did I just see a speed boat go by in the narrow channel just behind the tripod? I swear it looked like Michael Mann with a lasso. I swear it, really.
Mike jarosz says:
May 19, 2013 at 9:19 am
“After spending the last few months reading almost entirely non alarmist books and information I still find myself rooting for the cold weather and I hate cold weather. Can I be saved?”
Mike, you’re already saved. Better a free man in the cold than a green commerade .
In Climatology, real science, the Scientific Method, has been overwhelmed by propaganda.
Cold weather and cooling climates( there are many) seem to be the only things to successfully debunk these insipid watermelons, The Socialist “planning” class. Those snakes in the grass of environmentalism.
Western Liberty and possibilities for third world prosperity would be jeopardized If our Earth continued to warm, regardless of the natural causes.
The UN jackboots would indeed come.
My calibrated eyeball doesn’t see any movement of the device either downstream or towards shore, after comparing photos from today and several days ago.
having said that, the river ice appears to now have a clear central channel, persistent since yesterday
There appears to be a wind blowing to the right from the flag on top of the tripod. I pray that is upstream to the right. I pray, really.
For sure if it had been an earliest ice break up record we had been looking at the MSM and the usual suspects would have been all over it.
‘Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.’
Now, Geophysicist Martin Jeffries is either much smarter than anyone realizes, or he’s, well, rather much less smarter than anyone, including himself, realizes. Last time I checked 2009 was in the 21st century, not the 20th. But, then again, maybe he knows something about time travel that I don’t. Or maybe the Nenana Ice Classic was a good proxy back in the 20th century but stopped being a good proxy in the 21st century now that it’s not showing what he wants it to show. And, maybe intermingled in all this confusion is his definition of what a ‘pretty’ good proxy is. A proxy that’s better than a mere good one? Or, a proxy that’s not quite so good as, simply, a good one? And, what is a proxy anyway? The definition I get for the word ‘proxy’ (and I looked it up) is a substitute. So, precisely how is the Nenana Ice Classic a substitute for climate change?
See what I mean? Much smarter than anyone realizes or much less smarter than anyone realizes? Climate warriors are a mysterious bunch.
It appears the camera is located on the South side, which would make the wind blowing to the right to be blowing UPSTREAM. Prayers answered.
I’ve added a blink comparator to the head post, the 16th vs. the 19th …
w.
‘Don B says: May 19, 2013 at 8:41 am
The record late breakup was in 1964, a leap year, so a new record could be set on May 21.’
Mind you, as last year was a leap year, we are still 3/4ths of a day ‘forward’ so one really only has to allow an extra 6 hours!
I’ve added a blink comparator to the head post, the 16th vs. the 19th …
w.
Nice! Thanks Willis.
Thanks Willis, I would have done that, but the image you posted on WUWT in your post on the 15th was modified with edging, so I didn’t feel comfortable trying. The sun angle appears to be the issue on the tripod, I agree.
captainfish says:
May 19, 2013 at 9:44 am
Not an answer but a likelihood. Given the cables/ropes attached to the tripod (quadripod? pyramod?) and the strength of the wind up there, if it wasn’t nailed down somehow, it would be pulled over by the first Alaska-sized gust. In midwinter, easiest way to attach something solidly to the ice is dig shallow holes for the legs, stick its feet in the holes, and just add water …
That’s my guess, at any rate. I don’t think it would make a weak point. The quadruped is made out of welded steel pipe, so it seems it would reinforce the ice.
w.
Willis’s blink comparator shows it well. My question is this: Where did the big concrete blocks go?…
Willis Eschenbach says:
May 19, 2013 at 10:52 am
I’ve added a blink comparator to the head post, the 16th vs. the 19th …
w.
_______________
Oh boy, here we go with the blink comparators…
You should be ok as long as you don’t fire up a blog and call it something like Large Garish Fubars, or some such and then accumulate a following and then completely lose your whole blueprint/mind and turn into a partisan hack of the first order… but other than that, thanks for the blink comparator.
I’m setting up a time lapse capture on one of my computers, with luck we’ll have the first ever movie of the event.