It seems we didn’t reach 400PPM last week after all. The data has been revised. Ooops.
‘Carbon dioxide measurements in the Earth’s atmosphere did not break the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million at a Hawaiian observatory last week, according to a revised reading from the nation’s climate observers.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its May 9 reading at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, saying it remained fractions of a point below the level of 400 ppm, at 399.89′
Source: LA Times
Oh well, there’s always next week…or maybe not, since spring in the Northern Hemisphere tends to reduce CO2 as plants suck up all that CO2 that some claim is not plant food.
Still time to get t-shirts though.
H/t to Marc Morano
@Steven Rosenberg go to the Keeling Curve website and click on show 2 year curve”
– I notice on their 300 year graph it makes it clear that ice-core data was used before 1958. It’s after then the readings go exponential. So I can see why say some people might say today’s figures could also look smaller if examined via ice-core data in 1000 years time ..if the CO2 has some magic mechanism for dissolving over time.
@vukcevic says: “CO2 from ocean”… no no no
Ssays a recent update on the Scripps website saying Ocean CO2 doesn’t make it into the atmosphere.
– They are the experts, and normally I trust experts.. but when it comes to Climate Science, that’s not enough as there have been so many cheats in the past.
– They are pretty certain about it (certainty with evidence is a sign of poor science):
“At all sites, there is an accelerating upward trend in CO2 levels driven mostly by fossil fuel burning. ”
…hang on I just checked the signature at the bottom : “Kelley Gallagher is a fourth-year student “
certainty withOUT evidence I meant
– I forgot to say that maybe the activists so wanted the 400 limit to be crossed just before a weekend : to allow maximum impact from their churnalist friends in the greendream media
I thought it was a bit cold!
More bbq, beers and bonfire nights for me, lets get the those CO2 vs temperature lines diverging people 🙂
Is this story TOO BAD to be true ? only the LA Times reported it upto now
– Yes the official daily records all seem to below 400
– but are we sure there is no other explanation ?
– you’d expect a fairly prominent message of the NOAA website ..saying that 400ppm reading has been adjusted downwards … are the GreenDreamTeam all playing dumb in the hope that the 400 limit will be crossed in a few days anyways. ?. I suppose there is a possibility that the reading could be re-adjusted upwards again for genuine reasons
Lance Wallace says:
May 13, 2013 at 11:08 am
Steve Rosenberg–
Keeling (of Mauna Loa fame) published an article 20 years ago showing the seasonal variation of oxygen using precise measurements of the O2/N2 ratio.
stewgreen says:
May 14, 2013 at 9:37 am
The difference between the people managing the Mauna Loa (and many other stations) data with the Mannians of this world, is that the CO2 people in the first place are interested in the best, most accurate measurements of CO2. Far less interested in the political, hyped stories as result of what they publish. The best indication of honest data processing indeed is that if necessary, and only if necessary, they adjust the data in either direction: higher and lower, which in general is within a few tenths of a ppmv. As I did see the data around the “record” day, it seems to me that either there was volcanic influence (which ocasionally occurs), and then the data aren’t used for any averaging. Or there was a problem with the equipment. In that case the data aren’t used either. In both cases there was no official new record…
Lance Wallace says:
May 13, 2013 at 11:08 am
Keeling (of Mauna Loa fame) published an article 20 years ago showing the seasonal variation of oxygen using precise measurements of the O2/N2 ratio.
===============================================================
Actually, the Keeling that published on atmospheric O2 concentrations is Ralph Keeling, son of the late (Charles) David Keeling. It’s the father that is more closely associated with the Mauna Loa and eponymous Keeling Curve. Although, as Director of the Scripps CO2 Program, Ralph is certainly involved with the ongoing research at Mauna Loa today.
Rhoda R says:
May 13, 2013 at 12:14 pm
Would appear to have been published in the journal Energy and Environment editor: Dr Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen
http://www.multi-science.co.uk/ee.htm
Originally found on Dr Tim Balls website
http://drtimball.com/2011/ernst-georg-beck-a-major-contributor-to-climate-science-effectively-sidelined-by-climate-deceivers/
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
May 13, 2013 at 2:40 pm
“near huge CO2 sinks and sources like forests”
Volcanoes don’t count then????
And if the Pacific ocean isn’t the biggest CO2 sink/source I don’t know what is???
mwhite says:
May 14, 2013 at 11:31 am
Volcanoes don’t count then????
As I said May 13, 2013 at 11:27 pm, there are simple criteria which show that some of the volcanic vents reach the station at Mauna Loa. That was during 24 hours of the 8400 hours of measurements (one hour per day is used for calibration of the instrument), or 0.3% in 1994. In 1995 it was 9 hours. Not a big deal.
In contrast, one of the main series that makes the late Beck’s 1942 peak was at an agricultural station where CO2 was measured inbetween, under and above growing crops at Poona, India. Very interesting for knowing what happens between CO2 and plants, but not of the slightest value for “global” or even regional CO2 levels. The second and longest series that makes the 1942 peak was at Giessen, Germany, then and now a semi-rural surrounding, mid-West Germany. Interesting point is that there is a modern continuous (half hour samples) station at Linden/Giessen, not so far from where the historical data (3 times a day) were taken. Here we plot the raw, uncorrected and unfiltered data, including all (volcanic and vegetation caused) outliers, from Giessen with those of Barrow, Mauna Loa and the South Pole over a few days in summer:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/giessen_background.jpg
I see quite good reasons to choose Mauna Loa as a “baseline” station and reject any data from Giessen for representing the CO2 levels in the bulk of the atmosphere over any time frame, including the 1942 “peak”.
More on annual CO2 oscillations
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SST-CO2.htm
“Hi Boss. Sorry, can’t make it to the office today because C02 hit 400 ppm.”
“Well C02 is only 399.41 ppm, so you have no excuse. I’ll have to doc your wages.”
Wey hay : Scripps crossed 400ppm on May 13th 400.07
..on their website now http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
– that figure is 0.0175% over 400 so I would still say that is not outside the margin of error
oops I meant NOAA not Scripps
– hang on, I just checked the Scripps reading for the same day using the same instruments “May 13, 2013 reading not available Data too variable” .. so will the NOAA reading stand ?
Haven’t read all the comments . . . but, am just curious . . . . How many places in the world do we take CO2 PPM measurements and what does that data set look like . . . over time . . . . averaged . . . etc.??
any good links for that.? And what is the graph for the increase in the number of detectors over time.
And . . . any unusual volcanic activity around there that may affect the measurements? any good links for that.?
I know . . . I know, just showing my laziness, my ignorance, or both . . . But, they don’t keep the dang library open 24/7.
Laurie Bowen says:
May 15, 2013 at 2:18 pm
Best start at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/
you can click on one of the stations on the map and ask for the carbon cycle data and further for CO2, flask samples or contiunuous data (if available) and the plot of the data on screen, on a pdf or download the data.
The South Pole was first in 1958, Mauna Loa in 1959, the number increased over the years and a few years ago there were some 70 at “pristine” area’s, that is with minimum contamination from the neighbourhood. Many of these are located on islands in the oceans, or coastal. Some are in deserts. Some 400 others are located on land near sources and sinks. While these are not used for “background” measurements, the data are of interest for calculating the CO2 fluxes over vegetation and towns.
While Mauna Loa is on the flank of an active volcano, the CO2 emissions from the volcano are easely detected from a huge variability within an hour, the wind direction/speed (downslope) and the presence of SO2. Most others (including the South Pole) have no volcano in the wide area and little to no vegetation (which also influences the measurements).
– just checked again the NOAA May 12th reading has been downgraded to 399.4
– but now they report May 14 as the first day EVER over 400 at 400.03
Scrips’s/Keeling say May 14 399.58 : parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air
– so it wouldn’t surprise me if the NOAA May 14th is soon downgraded also
oops I blinked ..yes it has been re-adjusted downwards so CO2 has STILL NOT crossed the 400ppm line
NOAA Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 15 – 399.59 May 14 – 399.97 May 13 – 399.98 May 12 – 399.48 May 11 – 399.45
notice how the official page says PRELIMINARY
Scripps/Keeling Twitterfeed also all below 400ppm
Ah! ha! Thankyou Ferdinand, but given this “Since carbon dioxide is heavier than air, carbon dioxide released by man near ground level sinks in air relatively quickly” . . . and lighter than water
http://ocii.com/~dpwozney/carbondioxide.htm
and given that the earth is not exactly a completely closed system when it comes to heat.
Isn’t this really “good news” for plants and rather insignificant to man since it’s still a PPM issue? Unless of course you are a really short human and live near a CO2 sink.
Laurie Bowen says:
May 16, 2013 at 10:44 am
I know that CO2 is not readily mixed with the rest of the atmosphere if the emissions are higher than wat wind speed/turbulence can mix. That indeed is the case for the African “killer lakes”, where sometimes huge “blobs” of CO2 come out of the lake and kills humans and animals.
That is also the case in e.g. forests, where at night under inversion and little wind, near ground levels may increase to 600 ppmv and decrease to 250 on a sunny day thanks to photosynthesis and more turbulence.
That is also the main problem with many of the historical measurements: taken on land, near huge sources and sinks, completely unsuitable to have an idea of the real “background” CO2 levels of that time. But if the data were taken on ships over the oceans or coastal with wind from the sea, these show data around what the ice cores show for the same period of time.
See further: http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/beck_data.html
But in the bulk of the atmosphere, that is everywhere over the oceans and above a few hundred meters over land, the speed of change is less than the speed of mixing: the same levels are found everywhere within 2% of full scale (+/- 8 ppmv), where the largest differences are over the NH seasons and the lag of the SH vs. the NH. Here the yearly averaged data of several (coastal and mid-0cean stations + the South Pole) stations over the years:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends.jpg
The stations are between 7 m above AMSL (Barrow) to 3400 m (Mauna Loa) and from near the North Pole to the South Pole…
The point is that, once mixed, CO2 stays mixed in the atmosphere, except if catched near surface by some plant, mineral or by water.
That is the result of the “Brownian motion” which keeps heavier particles in motion by random collisions of molecules. We even frequently find Sahara sand/dust, 100 times heavier than air, on our cars, transported over a distance of 3000 km…
I’m sorry, but, so? http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_much_carbon_dioxide_would_kill_you
Are they wrong . . . if not, we have a very long way to go. All I am saying is that Air is mostly nitrogen and we are not dead.
Laurie Bowen says:
May 16, 2013 at 10:44 am
Ah! ha! Thankyou Ferdinand, but given this “Since carbon dioxide is heavier than air, carbon dioxide released by man near ground level sinks in air relatively quickly”
It’s certainly not a given it will only happen in relatively enclosed and sheltered places and even there diffusion will mix it irreversibly with the rest of the atmosphere, this is a slower process than turbulent mixing but it will continue until the composition is uniform.
. . . and lighter than water
http://ocii.com/~dpwozney/carbondioxide.htm
Mr Wozney has made a number of errors in his blog, first he states that “Add more CO2 at the left and the equilibrium balance is driven to the right”, without considering that producing more H+ pushes the equilibrium back towards the left by Le Chatelier’s principle. The graph showing this is known as a Bjerrum plot. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Carbonate_system_of_seawater.svg
Secondly he doesn’t consider that in much of the ocean conditions are such that CaCO3 is soluble (see Carbonate compensation).
Finally he doesn’t consider the rates of the processes, just because a reversible reaction exists it isn’t necessarily fast enough to reach equilibration with a rapid input, for example we’re adding CO2 faster than the addition of Ca++ by weathering.
An example of this effect is the proteins in our bodies, they’re all unstable to hydrolysis by water in our bodies, but the hydrolysis is rate limited, so fortunately for us those proteins don’t immediately fall apart! Some uncatalysed halflives are hundreds of years.