Guest post by Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
Figures released by the Met Office show the UK mean temperature for the 2012/13 winter finishing at 3.31C. This is below the long term 1981-2010 average of 3.83C.
Figure 1
The winter ranked 43rd coldest since 1910, and continues the trend towards colder winters. In the last five years, only 2011/12 has been above the 1981-2010 average. The average over these five years has been 3.03C.
Interestingly, the average winter temperature for 1911-2013 stands at 3.52C, so by 20thC standards the last few years have been genuinely cold.
The mild winters between 1998 and 2008 increasingly look to be the exception rather than the rule, as Figure 2 shows clearly.
Figure 2
Rainfall
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
After claims and counterclaims of floods and droughts, the winter has been remarkably normal in terms of rainfall.
Total rainfall amounted to 346.7mm, against the 1981-2010 baseline of 330.5mm, although there have been regional variations, with NW Scotland being notably dry.
Figure 3
Met Office Predictions
I am quick to criticise the Met when their 3-month outlooks are so far adrift, so I’ll give them credit this time for forecasting below normal temperatures. Their prediction for rainfall of slightly below normal was not far off the mark either.
I was drawn, however, to this statement in the precipitation outlook:-
“The risk of snowfall over the UK is related to the occurrence of cold winter weather. As probabilities favour for this year a colder season than last year’s, the risk of snowfall is enhanced.”
It appears nobody thought to tell them about the new theory that snow is caused by warm weather!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/k/a/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/j/i/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf
NW Europe
It seems it is not just the UK that has had a run of cold winters. NoTricksZone reports that Germany has had exactly the same run of 5 cold winters, and, as they point out, what applies to Germany usually applies to much of Central Europe.
What makes this situation even more remarkable is that we are still in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that began in the mid 1990’s (and, of course, coincided with the onset of milder winters till 2008).
As NOAA say
“The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe.”
We might be in for a few more cold winters when the AMO turns around.
References
All data from the UK Met
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
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Most significant climate factors during the last cool period in Europe and UK [winters only] 1962-1987 or 26 winters were:
Number of winters the winter temperatures as below normal [base line 1961-1990] :
UK CENTRAL ENGLAND 13 winters [50%]
EUROPE LAND AND SEA 17 winters [65%]
Number of winters where AMO was negative 22 or 84%
Number of winters AO was negative 21 or 80% dec/jan/feb]
Number of winters where PDO was negative 15 or 58 %
Number of winters NAO is negative 13 or 50 %
It would appear that during sustained cool spells [typically of 30 years plus long] in Europe more than half of the winters were colder than normal , the dominant climate factors were the presence of a negative AO and AMO and to a lesser degree negative NAO and neagtive PDO . The only factor missing currently is a neagtive AMO. It would appear that we at the start of another such a cool spell that may go to 2030/2040. Countries that are ignoring this fact and only planning for global warming will have a very difficult time in the decades ahead with significant shortage of energies incuding fosssil fuels to cope with the cold winters [ like Uk is already experiencing during the current winter] .
I remember when Spring arrived early. Ahhhh, those were the days.
While over in Germany we see more signs of early Spring.
But we must act now. I wonder whether plants are still moving uphill or downhill?
HenryP says:
March 24, 2013 at 6:28 am
Hi Henry.
I agree that the globe is currently in a solar induced cooling mode but is being bufferred for a while by ocean heat content from the active sun of the late 20th century and by the long lead time for solar effects to significantly alter ocean heat content.
It is just like turning around a huge oil tanker or container vessel.
I’m not currently in full agreement with you on all aspects but I don’t wish to point up those disagreements here.
My current approach is just to set out what I think is the real way the climate responds to forcing elements and then wait for events to support or rebut.
At the moment it is all supporting as far as I can see.
Kon Dealer says:
March 24, 2013 at 9:22 am
Tallbloke say what a lot of us in the UK feel.
But the time for niceties has passed. Britain’s people face a looming disaster of epic proportion. Britain’s political class needs to act swiftly to minimise the damage which cannot be wholly averted at this late stage. Successive governments have set the stage for the impending denouement, so this is not a partisan rant, but a cross-party appeal to common sense. People are dying by the thousand as a direct result of botched energy policy and we must act to save lives. Now.
——————————————————————————————————————-
Not sure how anyone could argue with that. Unfortunately we don’t seem to have any (even remotely) sceptical choice in UK politics that could ever form a government. Personally, I suspect that the first party to start re-evaluating their stance on this would be in with a substantial majority,
But they’d lose so many tax oportunities if they did so.
If you think energy prices are high in the UK you should have seen a report in Germany back in January, Things are so bad that people have started stealing wood from the forests to heat their homes thus releasing all that wonderful co2. Not to mention deforestation or is that de-branchification?
The Law of Unintended Consequences at your service.
JDN @7:49 am 24th Mar:
Open shop doors, with heat pouring out into the atmosphere, have infuriated me for years. When I’ve dared to mention the matter in shops I’ve just had baffled stares and assertions that they have been told to be ‘welcoming’ to their customers! Likewise the shops in Australia that air-condition the streets.
Instead of banning proper light-bulbs, the energy use of which is minimal compared with mass-heating or cooling, why not ban wide-open doors in every shop in every town and city? No, of course not, it’s the ordinary people who must be got at.
Ian W says:
March 24, 2013 at 6:45 am
—————————————-
The UK scientists predictions are out-of-phase with their observations.
Observation: The globe is warming.
Prediction: Snow will be a thing of the past (because winter temps will remain above freezing).
Observation: Lots of snow.
Prediction: Global warming will lead to greater snow fall (because there is more moisture in the air).
Observation: Colder temperatures and lot’s of snow.
Prediction: Global warming will lead to colder temperatures and more snow (because uh, well, uh)…
You can only be wrong three times before even your mother gives up on you.
cui bono says:
March 24, 2013 at 2:54 am
“5000 extra people dead . . .”
and,
Ian W says:
March 24, 2013 at 4:37 am
“ . . . 5000 above the statistical norm.”
Just a thought emerging from yesterday’s 95th birthday of a cousin:
She is somewhat exceptional but for those a bit younger, say those born about the time of WWII and after, medical care has been so much better and folks live longer than they were expected to when born. This is one of the issues facing the Social Security system in the USA. Still, it seems we all are going to die.
Are the “statistical norms” from which the current “excess deaths” are calculated appropriate to the task? I’m not saying they are not, I don’t know. It just seems that with many people living longer, at some point there are going to be a lot of old people dying without the weather (cold or hot, or wet or dry) being the culprit. If the “statistical norms” for death by age have not been properly adjusted (!?), what do we really know?
Gareth Phillips says:
March 24, 2013 at 1:16 am
That is simply bollocks and you are repeating the UK Met off excuse for them. They are just groping in the dark for some excuse to use. Don’t promulgate their crap. I hope you all vote for UKIP at the next election maybe then we will see idiots in the Met Off climate unit sacked and shut down and let them get back to studing the weather.
ferd berple says:
March 24, 2013 at 7:24 am
————————————————–
I have a simple test.
If a politician says “You deserve more”, I get suspicious.
If the politician continues “And someone else will pay”, I do my best to defeat that politician.
herkimer says:
March 24, 2013 at 9:23 am
Good post. Well thought through.
But they’d lose so many tax oportunities if they did so.
Joe, if there is one thing our thieving politicians are good at it is finding things to tax. As we say in france. Vous ne vous inquiétez pas. Don’t you worry yourself.
So I guess that the warmists have given up on their claim that snow will never be seen again in Britain?
Jim Cripwell says:
March 24, 2013 at 7:28 am
————————————————–
My impression is that the state is the only sponsor of science that has no evident payoff in the short-to-medium term. Politicians certainly sign the paychecks of all scientists at the Met Office and in the climate-science departments of all universities. Furthermore, I expect the scientists who remain on the sidelines recognize a fool’s argument when they see one.
It wasn’t just David Viner of UEA CRU that predicted the disappearance of snow.
Here’s our old friend Mojib Latif at the Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography predicting the demise of winter sports in the Alps.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/global-warming-threatens-famous-alps-resorts-for-many-alpine-ski-areas-nordic-walking-may-be-the-sport-of-the-future-a-342280.html
Mike (UK)
How odd,
http://www.bablakeweather.co.uk/
is also my local weather station:)
I can confirm,cold,damp and an inch or two of that stuff that children `will no longer recognise`
Cold winters … waffle, waffle. Cold winters … trend … waffle, waffle.
What ever happened to ClimateGate III ???
John F. Hultquist says:
March 24, 2013 at 9:55 am
cui bono says:
March 24, 2013 at 2:54 am
“5000 extra people dead . . .”
and,
Ian W says:
March 24, 2013 at 4:37 am
“ . . . 5000 above the statistical norm.”
==========
Just a thought emerging from yesterday’s 95th birthday of a cousin:
She is somewhat exceptional but for those a bit younger, say those born about the time of WWII and after, medical care has been so much better and folks live longer than they were expected to when born. This is one of the issues facing the Social Security system in the USA. Still, it seems we all are going to die.
Are the “statistical norms” from which the current “excess deaths” are calculated appropriate to the task? I’m not saying they are not, I don’t know. It just seems that with many people living longer, at some point there are going to be a lot of old people dying without the weather (cold or hot, or wet or dry) being the culprit. If the “statistical norms” for death by age have not been properly adjusted (!?), what do we really know?
John
From one of the articles:
UK’s coldest spring since 1963 claims 5,000 lives: Pensioners worst affected – and experts say final toll could be ‘horrendous’
2,000 extra deaths registered in just the first two weeks of March
And for February, 3,057 extra deaths registered in England and Wales
Campaigners warn weather could prove deadly for thousands more
About 2,000 extra deaths were registered in just the first two weeks of March compared with the average for the same period over the past five years.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298246/UKs-coldest-spring-1963-claims-5-000-lives-Pensioners-worst-affected–experts-say-final-toll-horrendous.html
So they are only looking back 5 years as a ‘normal’ which would answer your question
The actual number dying is significant. See
http://www.thegwpf.org/uk-winter-deaths-30000-big-freeze/
Jim Cripwell says: March 24, 2013 at 7:28 am
“R.Taylor, you write “Don’t blame the scientists, whose paychecks are signed by the politicians.”
I have no data, but I would,be very surprised indeed if ALL the Fellows of the Royal Society were paid by the Government.”
=============================================================
I think HMG subsidises the Royal Society to the tune of around £50 Million per year?
It would be naive to assume that they wouldn’t take an “interest” in who led the Society.
And it doesn’t need “ALL the Fellows”. (Many of whom are quite rational). It only needs those who call the shots. Pretty much like the comparable Institutions in the US, where hard line greenies have taken over the running of almost every one.
So far as the “scientists” are concerned, going back to Margaret Thatcher’s day, virtually every Scientific Advisor appointed by the Government has been recruited from the ranks of the hard line greenie alarmists. (Crispin Tickell was just the first and perhaps the most objectionable).
So they made absolutely sure that the “Scientific Advice” they received would suit their hubristic desire to be seen to be ‘saving the planet’ (and justify all manner of little stealth taxes and scams).
Lots of comment on here about the MET Office.
Who headed up the MET Office (appointed by the government, naturally) and what were his qualifications?
http://www.wwf.org.uk/wwf_articles.cfm?unewsid=1596
The recent ‘improvement’ noticed in comments above seems to have come after Napier collected his obscene index-linked pension and retired.
Excess winter deaths in the UK could hit 30,000 up from last year.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/03/24/294983/snow-deaths-in-uk-could-reach-30000/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9950731/Drawn-out-winter-may-have-caused-thousands-of-extra-deaths.html
“There seems to be some pretty good correlation between colder winters with wetter summers and the drastic reduction in the Arctic ice cap”
That’s odd, because there was a time when people observed an excellent correlation between a reduction in the Arctic ice cap and warmer winters. I don’t have the references with me, but this was described very clearly by Scherhag in the mid-30’s in a paper (peer-reviewed, no less !) discussing the warming that was going on in places like Spitsbergen.
One word “Authority” The UK government has told it’s citizens that they have caused anthropogenic (Man Made) global warming, All government body’s such as the Met office, the BBC and every civil servant (uncivil wannabe ruler) are now in full swing promoting the Governments authority, there are government scientists to provide the science, government media to provide the propaganda and stifle debate and thousands of payed for meddling twits all profiting from telling you, that they own this planet and therefor own you. You are well and truly put in your place when you are freezing through another cold winter while being told not to heat your home, you are causing global warming. You are well and truly put in your place when you can not afford to heat your home due to aggressive carbon based utility bills. Pay more to use less. I have no respect for so-called climate scientists or this bread of political class elitist’s or their scumbag administrative servants. But my opinion is worthless, Authority!
“Dr Liz Bentley, of the Royal Meteorological Society, said the “blocking pattern” that has caused cold winters and springs in the UK recently has been blamed on climate change as melting Arctic ice could have caused the high pressure to move south – just north east of Britain.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9951052/Snow-to-continue-until-Easter-but-weather-pattern-may-also-bring-a-heatwave-Met-Office.html
So another warm = global warming, cold = climate change kid.
Here is what they said about disappearing winter snow and cold.
http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2013/02/21/just-a-quick-reminder-of-what-they-said-about-cold-winters/
Now they say that the snow and cold is as a result of global warming. Liars and deceivers the lot of them.
Absolutely nothing is more insane than the UK’s energy policy. It is guaranteed to bring about
1. Sky high priced electricity costs.
2. Widespread brown outs and black outs in a few years time.
3. The probable collapse of the UK economy should there ever again be a major international crisis.
This is the real crime of those like Mann, Jones and Hansen – fooling goofy politicians, desperate to demonstrate their green credentials, into believing their unsubstantiated BS and who then vie with each other to see who can drive their countries economies into oblivion first.
In Asia, they just laugh at the ineptitude and stupidity of western politicians’ energy policies.