Guest post by Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
Figures released by the Met Office show the UK mean temperature for the 2012/13 winter finishing at 3.31C. This is below the long term 1981-2010 average of 3.83C.
Figure 1
The winter ranked 43rd coldest since 1910, and continues the trend towards colder winters. In the last five years, only 2011/12 has been above the 1981-2010 average. The average over these five years has been 3.03C.
Interestingly, the average winter temperature for 1911-2013 stands at 3.52C, so by 20thC standards the last few years have been genuinely cold.
The mild winters between 1998 and 2008 increasingly look to be the exception rather than the rule, as Figure 2 shows clearly.
Figure 2
Rainfall
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
After claims and counterclaims of floods and droughts, the winter has been remarkably normal in terms of rainfall.
Total rainfall amounted to 346.7mm, against the 1981-2010 baseline of 330.5mm, although there have been regional variations, with NW Scotland being notably dry.
Figure 3
Met Office Predictions
I am quick to criticise the Met when their 3-month outlooks are so far adrift, so I’ll give them credit this time for forecasting below normal temperatures. Their prediction for rainfall of slightly below normal was not far off the mark either.
I was drawn, however, to this statement in the precipitation outlook:-
“The risk of snowfall over the UK is related to the occurrence of cold winter weather. As probabilities favour for this year a colder season than last year’s, the risk of snowfall is enhanced.”
It appears nobody thought to tell them about the new theory that snow is caused by warm weather!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/k/a/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/j/i/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf
NW Europe
It seems it is not just the UK that has had a run of cold winters. NoTricksZone reports that Germany has had exactly the same run of 5 cold winters, and, as they point out, what applies to Germany usually applies to much of Central Europe.
What makes this situation even more remarkable is that we are still in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that began in the mid 1990’s (and, of course, coincided with the onset of milder winters till 2008).
As NOAA say
“The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe.”
We might be in for a few more cold winters when the AMO turns around.
References
All data from the UK Met
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
I am in Hampshire, UK, and I am looking out the window at the settled snow. Yet we are listening to the BBC, quite happy to report the demolition of functioning coal fired power stations. The lunatics really have taken over the asylum.
“There seems to be some pretty good correlation between colder winters with wetter summers and the drastic reduction in the Arctic ice cap”
Well the Arctic sea ice cap has been shrinking for over 30 years and for the first 20 years the jets became more zonal and the climate zones drifted poleward.
Only after 2000 did the process go into reverse whilst the Arctic ice continued to decrease.
No correlation at all. therefore.
I suspect a 10 to 15 year lag for Arctic ice amounts so expect it to increase again within the next few years.
It is really a great shame if the climate in northern Europe is tending towards cooler because we could do with a dose of real global warming here in the United Kingdom as is evident from Christopher Booker’s latest article in The Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9949571/Its-payback-time-for-our-insane-energy-policy.html
I entirely agree with Mr Booker and I am at a loss to comprehend why our politicians cannot see the madness of what they are doing to our energy supplies. I am looking into how I can install an emergency generator for when the lights go out.
In real time, 09:30 GMT , wind is contributing 12% of all UK production.
Of greater significance, and with impeccable timing, whilst the UK is virtually blanketed with snow, we’ve had to permanently shut down at least 3 of our coal fired power stations this week.
For the past few years we have been seeing reports of animals and insects moving north in the UK to get away from the heat in the south. i.e. York university research 2012!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2188002/Butterflies-birds-north-climate-warms-250-species-colonising-new-areas-previously-cool-them.html
I guess they all must have frozen to death by now.
In The Netherlands (just west of Germany) the winter anomaly was -0.1 °C compared to the last 30 years for dec/jan/feb.
It is March that is going to be very cold though. At the moment the March anomaly is -3.0 °C. March average temperature so far is below the 30 year average for February, and will even go below the 30 average for January. One might rightfully claim that winter has been extended by a month.
“The risk of snowfall over the UK is related to the occurrence of cold winter weather. As probabilities favour for this year a colder season than last year’s, the risk of snowfall is enhanced.”
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But hasn’t there been a recent trend by the warmists to tell us that warming causes increased snow fall?
Is this latest statement a recognition that increased snowfall is associated with cold conditions, not warming?
Jeff Alberts says:
March 23, 2013 at 10:35 pm
…it’s just weather. Jumping on every little blip in either direction is idiotic.
Well, this post (as I see it, anyway) is suggesting that this winter in not merely a “little blip” but is part of a trend. Are you saying that’s incorrect? That the several recent below-average winters in the UK and Europe are a “little blip?”
Last week, a large, perfectly servicable coal fired power station in Didcot, Berkshire, UK, and employing hundreds of people producing much needed power for out nation, was foced to close before its scheduled 2019 date bacause the EU had ruled that it had produced its allowance of output that had been laid down by the EU some years ago. Why on earth Cameron and his cohorts don’t put two fingres up to these stupid people in the name of simple common sense is quite beyond me.
The sooner we have politicians back in power that can apply their business experience to governing the country properly the better.
A swedish newspaper quoting the swedish metrology institute said colder winters was a result of global warming. I bet they would blame global warming if winters turned warmer too.
5000 extra people dead in UK so far this winter: http://alturl.com/npz34
UK energy supply on brink: http://alturl.com/5qhm9
Meanwhile, Earth Day! Let’s switch off all that evil energy! Weep, weep for that so fragile climate!
Somebody should be separated from their testicles for this.
Diane Sawyer the other night on World News had an intro to the show about the cold spring weather and the surprising reason why that would shock people. I turned to the History channel immediately. I figured it was going to be more of the “global warming causes cold, late spring”. Do they really forget that just a few months ago they were talking about how spring arrives earlier every year? What’s wrong with these people?
Looking at figure 1 … just about shows everything we need to know about the global warming scam. Cover up the last few years and it looks as if the recent values are rising. Look at the whole graph and it doesn’t look as if anything has changed.
Now that it is very clear they were wrong to “cry wolf” …
When will the Met Office apologise for their central part in causing the most costly scam in Human history?
Thank you for the NOAA link. I understand why you did not cite NOAA as a reference:
” Since the AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, severe hurricanes have become much more frequent and this has led to a crisis in the insurance industry.” AND,
“Last updated 2007 Oct 02 16:28 (-0400)”
And the voters keep voting in those that put up those horrid windmills, dream of solar panels somehow working under snow and ice while they’re busily shuttering their coal generators, decomissioning without replacement their nuke generators and keeping the fracking gas underground. Just last week they warned about not being able to generate enough electricity to keep all except Prince Charles in the dark and cold. But not to worry, stacking the frozen dead along side the roadways is a small price to avoid that 180 F temp of 2310. And they can relearn the proper way to stack, just like they did in the bubonic plague years.
More on the effect of the UK winter continuing into into spring in the Mail at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298246/UKs-coldest-spring-1963-claims-5-000-lives-Pensioners-worst-affected–experts-say-final-toll-horrendous.html#
As the result of insane “green” energy policy the Mail says:
“An increase in fuel costs and the extended winter means that more people are going to suffer, and more will be unable to afford to eat and heat their homes. It’s a scary prospect.”
Greg: “What you mean it’s all caused by people smoking too much pot?” 😀 No, in this case the meaning of THC is . thermohaline current!
As a historical climatologist I would like to put some context into the current weather.
Firstly, having looked at thousands of weather observations back to the 10th Century, what stands out is that this current era (in Britain) has been a very benign climatic period. There were far more extremes in previous centuries, especially prior to the 18th century when winds, droughts, heat waves and snow made the present era seem very calm. What is particularly noticeable are the long and frequent episodes of torrential rain which caused famine, destroyed bridges mills and houses, and were on a different and more ferocious scale to today
Readers might like to look at the official Met office figures which gives Central England temperatures to 1772 (Google; Hadley CET 1772)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
As can be seen, temperatures in this country have been plummeting for over a decade and are currently very similar to the late 1980’s before the global warming scare. They are also very similar to those in the 1730’s which was a hiatus in the Little Ice Age. Global temperatures have been static or falling for 16 years.
We have a plan ‘A’ for global warming (a tiresome misnomer as one third of all temperature stations worldwide show cooling) I can’t predict what will happen in the future, other than to say the last few years weather patterns have some similarity to those in the past that presaged a genuinely extreme period of high winds, snow and rain so would suggest we need a plan ‘B’ to cater for cooling, which is currently more of a reality than warming.
Perhaps the most depressing thing is that IF the official belief in man made warming is correct (highly unlikely) we have just had the warmest decade ‘ever’ and our weather may now return to previous decades-often cold often wet often stormy. Form an orderly queue at the Australian visa office…
tonyb
When is Al Gore going to be hauled in front of the International Court in The Hague,
not as a war criminal but as a menace to the whole Human Race? (sorry it is late and I am angry that it seems like the people responsible for mess ups like this never get their just rewards.).
Vuk
There are similarities between the current position of the jet stream and its position at the start of various episodes of the Little Ice Age.
Is there any connection you are aware of between sunspots/magnetic activity and the position of the jet stream?
tonyb
Cold weather brings yet another hockey stick result over Europe
http://www.thegwpf.org/bitter-cold-grips-europe-march-coldest-100-years/
Yes we’re shivering here in UK. Not deep snow like Canada but it’s enough for us. And of course, the wonderful thing about PV panels is they don’t work when covered in snow, even if there was enough light for them. Coupled with light/no wind for the turbines, it looks like we’re reliant on those fossil fuels yet again :).
Yet the MET Office still promotes this kind of insane rubbish.
“ I stand by my comments of 4C or more global warming being possible by the end of this century, with local warming higher in some places, up to 15C in the Arctic an extreme but plausible case.”
(http://podcasts.ox.ac.uk/people/richard-betts)
I haven’t checked but I’m told that UK records show that snow is more common at Easter than at Christmas. I do remember being snowed in for a week at my parents farm during the last week of April in about 1980. It’s only weather.
“what applies to Germany usually applies to much of Central Europe.”
It’s much worse:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=2&sat=4&sst=3&type=trends&mean_gen=1203&year1=2007&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
but it’s not remarkable, we are back to a more normal NAO/AO. Temp of NW Europe follows the NAO, the AMO follows the integral of the NAO.