Guest post by Steve Goreham
Originally published in The Washington Times
Last Friday, President Obama once again pitched electric cars during his presentation at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois. At one point, he called for an end to gasoline-powered vehicles, “…but the only way to really break this cycle of spiking gas prices…is to shift our cars entirely―our cars and trucks―off oil.” The President has a remarkable faith in the value of electric cars, but this trust is not well supported by science or economics.
The very same day, Henrik Fisker, the chairman and co-founder of Fisker Automotive, announced he would be leaving his company over issues regarding “business strategy.” In 2011, Fisker Automotive introduced the Karma, a luxury plug-in electric car with a $100,000 price tag. The Karma was named “Luxury Car of the Year” in 2011 by BBC Top Gear magazine.
In 2010, the US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded a $529 million loan to Fisker Automotive for the development and production of hybrid electric cars. Former Energy Secretary Stephen Chu praised Fisker, “Not only will the Fisker projects contribute to cleaner air and reduced carbon emissions, these plug-in hybrid cars will help put American ingenuity at the forefront of automotive design and production.”
But lately things have not been so rosy for Fisker Automotive. Last year the DOE froze the loan after Fisker had received $193 million. The firm’s battery supplier, A123 Systems, declared bankruptcy in October of last year, after also receiving a DOE loan of $249 million. The Karma was recalled several times and Fisker has not manufactured a car in six months.
Plug-in electric vehicle (EV) sales are growing, boosted by government incentives and a consumer desire to purchase environmentally-friendly vehicles. EV purchasers receive a $7,500 tax credit from the US government and ability to drive in the High Occupancy Vehicle lane of most freeways. Charging stations are being installed in California, Nevada, Texas, and other states, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer.
Global EV sales are still a tiny part of the market. President Obama set a goal in 2008 to “put a million plug-in hybrid cars…on the road by 2015.” But US electric sales last year were only about 53,000 units. About 120,000 EVs were sold worldwide in 2012, only 0.15 percent of the 82-million global car market.
While President Obama would like to eliminate gasoline-powered vehicles, such vehicles still provide major advantages for consumers. Pound-for-pound, the energy stored in the chemical bonds of gasoline is about 100 times the energy stored in today’s Lithium-ion batteries. This translates into about a ten-to-one advantage in driving range for gasoline vehicles.
If electric cars succeed, look for magazine lounges at charging stations. Gasoline fill-ups require two to three minutes for small cars and four to five minutes for SUVs. The best 440-volt commercial charging stations require a driver to charge an EV for 30 minutes or more.
Electric car owners who drive every day are in for a surprise. Their battery pack will need to be replaced. Batteries are based on a chemical imbalance, a separation of charge that produces the electrical potential. The day an electric leaves the showroom, chemical reactions are at work to remove the charge from your lithium-ion battery. Faster charging, frequent charging, warmer temperatures, and storage at full charge degrade the battery more quickly. Either the owner or the manufacturer will need to pay $10,000 for a battery replacement about year four or five.
But can’t an EV purchaser take pride that his car reduces global warming? Well, not really. A study last year by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology found that, for a vehicle with a 100,000 kilometer lifetime (when batteries would need replacement), EV environmental impacts were “indistinguishable from those of a diesel vehicle.” The reason is that manufacture of an EV emits about double the carbon dioxide required to manufacture a diesel or gasoline car, primarily to build the metal batteries of the electric.
The study also found that “EVs exhibit the potential for significant increases in human toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and metal depletion impacts, largely emanating from the vehicle supply chain.” In other words, production of electric car batteries may become a major source of pollution. Suppose we go slowly on promoting electric cars, Mr. President?
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the new book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
Whys doesn’t he climb in a Honda and motorcade around to give us all an example.
It took as long to drive the length of the UK in an Electric car as a 1700s Stage Coach, that is progress for you.
However I think a Petrol or Diesel charged EV like the Volt is a far better bet.
Visits like this just give Argonne a black eye. He could use a less vulnerable site as a tribune for his hate speech.
There is a lot of good stuff being done at Argonne, almost none related to Obama’s green agenda; almost all of it underfunded and at risk of being closed down. For example, their diesel combustion research is top class.
I see lots of natural gas powered cars in South America. We should use them here, given our vast supplies & their greater energy efficiencies over liquid gasoline & diesel. But how would governments tax us, when we could refuel from the gas pipes to our stoves & furnaces?
Overall, considering the price and the full cost of ownership, an electric golf cart seems to be a better EV.
IOW, “Alles Volk vil haf a Voltsvagen!”
One thing that struck me when I heard Obama’s Proclamation was – what next? Are we to go back to whale blubber for lubricants? Oil (refined as fuel) is but one use in a car. It is also used in all the plastics and more importantly, as the engine lubricant. This has nothing to do with its use as a fuel. Moving parts require lubrication, or they do not move for very long.
I think we should start a new slogan – Save the Whales! Lubricate with Petroleum!
President Obama would like to ban gasoline-powered vehicles from America.
Maybe instead the government should ban President Obama from America.
Here’s a link to Bloomberg’s story on the resignation of Fisker:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-13/fisker-automotive-co-founder-resigns-as-chairman.html
Never let logic get in the way of an environmentalist.
“A study last year by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology found that, for a vehicle with a 100,000 kilometer lifetime (when batteries would need replacement), EV environmental impacts were “indistinguishable from those of a diesel vehicle.” The reason is that manufacture of an EV emits about double the carbon dioxide required to manufacture a diesel or gasoline car, primarily to build the metal batteries of the electric.”
You also need to account for the fact that world wide the vast majority of electricity is generated by burning coal. Coal will produce more CO2 than gas or diesel per unit energy produced.
It takes a lot of nerve to promote the use of more taxpayer dollars for programs before the smoke clears on all the other failed programs for batteries and electric cars and other start-up firms with the standard line of “we don’t pick winners.” This includes the string of recent company failures and takeovers of assets by Chinese companies. Clearly, this special interest appearance-driven waste of money and time is driven by something other than results in the normal sense. Rational due diligence would focus on sector leaders and what makes them different and what they need to achieve breakthroughs like the process in recent years that perfected and scaled up the shale gas and oil boom on private lands. The Prez is campaigning every day for brownie points with no intention of solving problems like energy or the environment. You can almost see the strings hanging down that control his mouth and limbs.
Some dirty little secrets about electric cars>>>>>
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html
Fisker’s problems would explain why they staged a public relations meltdown a couple weeks ago when an automobile review drove the car and reported some troubles recharging. Overall it really wasn’t a bad review – he loved the car, but found it took a lot of logistics and thought to plan a successful trip.
Fisker’s chairman exploded in a public attack on the reviewer in a way (how many times has this happened on the web?) that caused far, far more publicity to the negative review than ever could have happened if he had left it alone.
I’m thinking that Fisker knew that one more piece of bad news, anything at all, could push them over the brink of solvency. Well when you’re that tight and that high strung, you pretty much guarantee your own failure.
I’ve looked at the Fisker auto – it could be a damn fine car if they could just put a regular IC engine in it.
In all of human history has there ever been a scam that has affected more of the world’s population than convincing them that carbon dioxide is a poison and pollutant that will destroy the world? With every breath you take in you then exhale carbon dioxide. With every blade of grass that grows carbon dioxide is taken in. It really is the staff of life. Besides the obvious get rich scheme of the environazis hating carbon dioxide how can so many people hate something so essential to life? As long as people such as Barack Obama and billions of other scientifically moronic people believe this we’ll be wasting zillion of dollars on nonsense like wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, curlyque light bulbs, climate research and God know what other useless crap. I despair that the people are so stupid that this con game will never end until modern civilization is ruined. Electric cars are for the terminally insane and scientifically illiterate. Or those with more money than brains.
“Fisker’s problems would explain why they staged a public relations meltdown a couple weeks ago when an automobile review drove the car and reported some troubles recharging”
This wasnt the Fisker, it was the Tesla and the articles appeared in the NYT here: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Also use Google to see the response of Tesla’s CEO and various other comments.
I had a recent opportunity to inspect a Tesla Model S closely at their store in the Fashion Square Mall in Scottsdale, AZ. The display included a body-off chassis so that one could get a look at the internals. Over all, not so impressive. A bit crude on the fit and finish side as compared to other cars at this price point, but perhaps this is to be expected given that IC powered cars have had 100+ years to mature. I quizzed the sales rep at length and the story concering range, recharging time, and battery life was pretty discouraging. IMHO, the only way pure EV’s will become mainstream is with a near instant (less than 10 min) refueling (recharging) capability – either a breaktrough in battery technology, or a system for quickly exchanging a depleted battery for a freshly charged one. The latter however depends on the existence of an infrastructure of “battery stations” not unlike the current network of gas stations.
Based on what I have seen so far, Fisker and Tesla are for very early adopters only; I dont expect either company to be around five years from now.
“Batteries are based on a chemical imbalance” Well, that explains their obsession!
I found it interesting that the Fisker Karma is the only car credited on the second Atlas Shrugged movie. I was only able to see about 3 seconds of screen time for it.
Obama, the natural sinker for the US nation and the rest of the western world …
Go China, Go! [/sarc]
Reason is not automatic. Those who deny it cannot be conquered by it.
Ayn Rand
By this standard, Obama and his followers are invincible. We argue from logic, fact, and reason. Our opponents react to emotional appeals and proven propaganda methods to make those emotional appeals effective. For all intents and purposes, our ‘reasoned speech’ is a foreign language that they do not understand. State the facts – Yes! But use emotional appeals that strike to their emotional cores, to convey that well reasoned position.
MtK
Another obvious flaw in the EV concept is that the majority of electricity is produced by coal and natural gas, so they aren’t really “green” once you get past the propaganda.
Environmental wackos always counter with the need to replce the grid with wind/solar, but then you get right back to energy density issues and costs/kWh, which are an order of magnitude higher than conventional energy generation systems.
The way around these problems are: Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTRs), which would make power generation about two orders of magnitude cheaper than wind/solar 2) next generation batteries capable of much quicker charging times and roughly 3 times the range.
One idea would be that all car batteries are uniform multiple units and that could simply be automatically switched out with charged units as needed at charging stations and then you’d leave depleted battery unit(s) to be recharged and used by future customers once recharged.
If it were an automated system, the batery exchange could possibly be done in seconds rather than waiting around for 30 minutes.
wwschmidt says:
March 19, 2013 at 10:53 am
“Fisker’s chairman exploded in a public attack on the reviewer in a way (how many times has this happened on the web?) that caused far, far more publicity to the negative review than ever could have happened if he had left it alone.”
Global warming zealots seem to be having the same kind of meltdown with the crumbling of their incorporation. Like one smart wag on a post a number of weeks ago said – it must be tough on their children and pets these days.
“for a vehicle with a 100,000 kilometer lifetime (when batteries would need replacement)”
At this point, even a cheap automobile is only half way through it’s usefull life.
So if we double the mileage to 200,000k, the electric car looks even worse.
“EVs exhibit the potential for significant increases in human toxicity”
Man, the straight lines just write themselves around here.
“A bit crude on the fit and finish side as compared to other cars at this price point, but perhaps this is to be expected given that IC powered cars have had 100+ years to mature.”
Fit and finish has nothing to do with what is powering the vehicle.
BTW, electric motors have been around longer than the IC engine has.