Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Temperatures are generally referred to some kind of long-term, often 30-year average. This is called the “climatology”, meaning the long-term average values of various climate variables. For up-to-date analyses, the period of time is usually taken as being the thirty years from 1981-2010. For Alaska, the usual measure for the overall state average uses twenty “first order” stations in Alaska. These have the longest and best records. We all know that the Arctic is warming now, but it hasn’t always been so.
Now, the climatology is the month-by-month average temperatures for that period. And of course, given the general warming of the planet over the last century, there have been some way colder years in Alaska than the modern 1981-2010 average. Here’s the record of one such year, back when Alaska was really cold.
Note just how extraordinarily cold Alaska can get. Ten of the twelve months were below average. And not just a little bit below average either.
The most surprising thing about the year was that January was a full 14°F (8°C) colder than the modern average. It would be unusual for one single temperature station to be that much colder than the climatology. But to have the average of 20 different stations being so very much colder than the climatology? It shows not just how cold Alaska used to be, but how widespread the cold was as well. It was bitterly cold, not just in one single area but covering almost the entire state.
And it was not just a cold January that year either. March was 7°F colder than usual, the summer was below average, and the start of the next winter was quite cold as well. In addition, the ice in the Bering Sea was much more extensive than usual, and snowfall was 30%-50% above normal.
All in all, it was a pretty brutal time for people living the state, back when Alaska was really cold. It’s fortunate that they made tough people back then, and Alaska is full of them. You’d have to say that it was a bad, cold year overall, 2012 … I’m just glad the world is warmer now.
The source document is here.
w.
PS—don’t bother telling me that weather is not climate … because that’s exactly what I’m pointing out, isn’t it. My main issue is that if January 2012 in Alaska had been 14°F above the average, we’d never have heard the end of it … but 14°F below average attracted little notice at all.
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And this occured while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at their highest. Where did all that heat go if CO2 is supposed to be a blanket keeping it from radiating to outer space?
Many new record low temperatures were observed. For example, Bettles in the northern Interior, recorded temperatures at or below -60°F
-60F(-50C) certainly puts things into perspective.
If I have the right place on Google (maps), it has an airport. Nothing else, just an airport. What is it? A mining operation? (sorry – looks really ‘alien’ to a UK resident)
None too far (mouse wheel zoom speaking) from Fairbanks. I guess one needs to be ‘tough people’ to live and work out there. I’m impressed.
Not altogether OT (so forgive me Willis)…some comparisons for UK residents….
Area : England – 50,346 sq miles / Alaska – 663,268 sq miles
Pop. Density : England 1,054.1 per sq mile / Alaska 1.26 per sq mile
Capital of Alaska : Juneau – pop. 32,000 souls
No wonder Alaska looks a bit ‘alien’ to me!
“and snowfall was 30%-50% above normal.”.
Not possible; you only get more snow with higher temperatures. /sarc
A zinger, as always, Willis.
But: “Children just won’t know anymore what snow looks like!” – and “By 20XX (you name it) the North Pole will be free of ice!” – you know…
Nice shot Willis, had me going for a while….
“We all know that the Arctic is warming now, but it hasn’t always been so.”
Yeah that sounds like a like a good story, one full of hot air.
“Here’s the record of one such year, back when Alaska was really cold.”
And what year would that be since your figure 2 is for 2012 which you
conveniently left off the bottom of the graphic.
“bdub’s comment”
I never cease to be amazed at the propensity of so many members of the human race to parade their own stupidity for all to see.
bdub says:
March 9, 2013 at 8:23 am
Like the rest of the world, it cooled post 1940 …
Umm … that would be back in 2012, when Alaska was anomalously cold …
w.
Could you give the details of the stations, please? I’d like to look at the actual values, especially if there are “historical” records, for the whole of 20th century, or a substantial portion thereof. Would KNMI be possible source?
In a cooling period, such as now,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
there is a shift in cloud formation/ condensation southwards (NH) and northwards (SH).
Some places get cooler (Alaska)
others get warmer – a GH effect (from the clouds)
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
Tricky,
I think the cool part of this weather cycle is going to cause self doubt and violent denial in the faithful.
2012 is just the start of their implosion of faith. Must hurt when one realizes they have been “saving the world” by fighting natural cycles.
Our govt funded experts keep insisting that the Arctic is warming like nowhere else on earth, when I look at their measuring methods, few stations, poorly located and calibrated, no satellite monitoring of the high arctic. I smell a bunch of rats.
Environment Canada is a miserable waste of tax dollars, if as they insist, the Arctic is the canary of modern AGW, why is it so poorly monitored?
Any improvement from the mess revealed by FOIA 2010?
I can not get any assurance from EC that their Arctic stations are accurate below -40C or even stay within calibration over the normal arctic temperature range.
Environment Canada, has their own science, see their website, something apparently above and beyond actual empirical science. Its so much easier to smear poor measurements over land and sea to create the numbers an activist bureaucrat desires.
Another public watchdog that has gone mad, rabid and dangerous.
.
Willis. Sorry, but your punch-line is a bit flat. I missed that you were talking about 2012. Could you make the punch-line a bit more robust and punchy. Thanks.
Nothing to see here. Alaska is just a small region, a bit like Europe in the Little Ice Age.
/sarc
No sarc – you gotta give bdub some credit for knowing it was 2012 without even reading the rest of the post …
Willis a little too subtle for you, Ralphy?
The meme has ever been that the polar regions are the canary in the coal mine, that polar amplification would result in the greatest warming occurring in polar regions. Sure, it’s just weather since the anomaly points in the cold direction. If the anomaly had been in the warm direction, just imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the warmist faction.
John Robertson says
Our govt funded experts keep insisting that the Arctic is warming like nowhere else on earth
Henry says
The cooing will affect higher latitudes first, Those enjoyng a warm Gulf stream will be affected a bit later.
In my sample, the 2 Alaskan stations showed severe cooling, as expected,
and this will continue,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
If it was me living there I would pack my bags.
“the period of time is usually taken as being the thirty years from 1981-2010”
“there have been some way colder years in Alaska than the modern 1981-2010 average”
“Here’s the record of one such year”
“back when Alaska was really cold”
“And it was not just a cold January that year either”
“back when Alaska was really cold”
So why not lead the whole thing off with back in 2012 or better yet last year?
I know when someone is trying to mislead the reader and that is exactly
what you are doing.
bdub says:
March 9, 2013 at 11:12 am
My friend, I fear you have missed the point entirely. I was certainly trying to temporarily mislead the reader, in order to show said reader how strong our misconceptions are. Everyone is willing to believe Alaska used to be colder and is now warmer.
2012, for example, was very cold.
So I deliberately left out the year, so that people would be surprised in their assumptions when the year was revealed at the end of the piece.
Now, overall was the reader misled? Not a bit. At the end I stated quite clearly that the year was 2012, last year. That was the point, that such a cold year didn’t happen a half century ago.
I’m sorry you didn’t get the joke.
All the best,
w.
Well done Willis….love your articles and I saw the crunch line coming.
Unfortunately some readers seem to lack a sense of irony….or something
The cold weather in Alaska is having an impact on local agriculture. And the heavier than normal snowfall this winter will take longer to melt keeping things colder into the spring. Growing seasons are short up there and the extra hours of sunshine really help, but growing degree days are still the limiting factor on plant biochemistry.
The cold in Alaska and Siberia is having an impact on North Pacific SSTs. They are 1-3 degrees below climatology now. They will not warm up much anytime soon.
Poor bdub. Even after the clever rhetorical technique is explained, he/she just doesn’t get it. 🙂
w.,
You’re a marvel of kindly comportment! (But don’t tell bdub I said that.)
So it was a joke? You’re kidding me, right? Simply, WOW.
“Everyone is willing to believe Alaska used to be colder and is now warmer”
Well I guess I’m not “everyone” because I have no such preconceptions.
What makes you think you know what people are willing to believe?
“At the end I stated quite clearly that the year was 2012, last year”
“You’d have to say that it was a bad, cold year overall,
2012 … I’m just glad the world is warmer now. You call that clear I’d hate
to see what is unclear. You certainly didn’t use the words last year nor did
you say anything like ‘believe it or not folks the bad cold year I’m describing is
really 2012!’.
“That was the point, that such a cold year didn’t happen a half century ago.”
“My main issue is that if January 2012 in Alaska had been 14°F above the average
,we’d never have heard the end of it … but 14°F below average attracted little notice at all.”
To bad your “main issues” don’t match.
You stated your real point and that is “the world is warmer now”. Unfortunately
your source document kills that dead. You don’t fool me at all fella.
“NASA scientists say 2012 was the ninth warmest of any year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. With the exception of 1998, the nine warmest years in the 132-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the hottest years on record.”http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html. On the matter of global climate, you cannot take data from one relatively small area (and relative to the globe, Alaska is small) and one 12-month period and conclude “so there” about much of anything. It’s bad science, akin to a bad angler catching one small trout from one small stream and “concluding” that trout everywhere are small.