Stephan Lewandowsky and John Cook – making things up

Fabricated quotes and gross distortions are used to paint skeptics as conspiracy nuts.  The question is, is it a conspiracy, or is it just incompetence?

Guest post by Brandon Shollenberger

Many people have shown interest and scorn for a recently released paper by Stephan Lewandowsky and John Cook (and others), Recursive fury: Conspiracist ideation in the blogosphere in response to research on conspiracist ideation.  People have taken issue with a number of aspects of the paper, but to my knowledge, nobody has noticed Lewandowsky and Cook fabricate things in their paper.  That’s right.  They make things up.

While there are many examples, I’d like to focus on some obvious distortions of quotes.  A number of quotes are distorted to make skeptics look bad.  This is seen as early as the second quote taken from a skeptic.  The paper says:

The notion of “scamming” took center-stage in the blogosphere’s response to LOG12, although not all comments went so far as to suggest “… there are no `Human Subjects’ ” (http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/ccc1.html#198).

It’s hard to imagine anyone being crazy enough to suggest nobody who took the survey was a human.  Naturally, nobody suggested that.  If one follows the link provided, they find a comment by the user Foxgoose which includes:

The current premise is that there are no “Human Subjects” and as more and more known sceptical blog proprietors add their voices, this will become increasingly apparent. Unless of course Stephan has approached the proprietors of five “sceptic blogs” which no-one in the sceptic community has ever heard of.

If that quote isn’t clear enough, the exchange it is in certainly is.  The “Human Subjects” being discussed were the skeptic blog owners supposedly contacted by Stephan Lewandowsky.  Lewandowsky claimed he couldn’t release the identities of those because of privacy concerns.  Foxgoose suggested there could be no privacy concerns because nobody had been contacted.

What does this have to do with whether or not humans took the survey?  Nothing.  Lewandowsky et al. took a comment about one subject, stripped it of context and placed it in an entirely different discussion.  They completely fabricated this insane claim then portrayed it as a belief some skeptics hold.  And that’s not the only time they distorted a quote in such a blatant way.  In another case, the paper says:

Another commenter applauded the alleged cunning strategy to goad bloggers into paranoid behavior:

“If it’s true they are selectively blocking, I have to begrudgingly respect the skill with which they are playing this audience: there is no way for anyone to complain without matching the stereotypical conspiracist of the study!” (http://climateaudit.org/2012/09/14/the-sks-link-to-the-lewandowsky-survey/#comment-352753).

The comment in question was made by the user Nathan Kurz.  Here is what his comment said:

While it’s possible that specific IP addresses are being blocked, claiming that they are reads a lot like a conspiracy theory. The irony is amazing. If it’s true they are selectively blocking, I have to begrudgingly respect the skill with which they are playing this audience: there is no way for anyone to complain without matching the stereotypical conspiracist of the study!

Showing that one can get through via an Anonymizer doesn’t strike me as strong evidence. I think the likeliest innocent explanation is a misconfigured router somewhere, so access from a completely different network doesn’t imply much. Much stronger would be to show that you can access from a neighbor’s computer using the same ISP. If the neighbor get through (and is using the same browser and OS), you have firmer evidence. If the neighbor also can’t access, one could either conclude they are blocking wider swaths of the internet, or search harder for innocent explanations.

Nathan Kurz clearly thinks the supposed strategy is unlikely.  He argues against the idea.  The paper doesn’t tell you that.  Instead, it portrays him as promoting the idea.  They quote a skeptic who was being reasonable and not believing there’s a conspiracy, but they hide his beliefs so he seems to believe in a conspiracy…

But that doesn’t compare to my favorite example.  In it, the authors simply fabricate a quote:

A further hypothesis supposed that the real purpose of LOG12 was to provoke conspiracist ideation from climate deniers: “Here’s a conspiracy theory for you: This is the subject of the study, not the survey. The reactions of the skeptic community to a controlled publication with obvious flaws, presented as caustically as possible and with red herrings presented for them to grasp at. There’s some evidence for this theory in internal mails at SkepticalScience, where John Cook can be heard talking enthusiastically about his discussions with Stephan about gaming blogs” (http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/news.php?p=2&t=118&&n=161#751).

If you follow the link, you’ll find a comment by the user geoffchambers which doesn’t include a word from him.  His comment consists solely of a quote from thomaswfuller and “(-Snip-).”  That means the citation given doesn’t show what the authors quote.  And it gets better.  The quote included from Fuller says:

Here’s a conspiracy theory for you: This is the subject of the study, not the survey. The reactions of the skeptic community to a controlled publication with obvious flaws, presented as caustically as possible and with red herrings presented for them to grasp at..

That is part of the quote Lewandowsky et al published.  However, we can see the original comment from Fuller here.  It says (emphasis added):

Here’s a conspiracy theory for you. This is the subject of the study, not the survey. The reactions of the skeptic community to a controlled publication with obvious flaws, presented as caustically as possible and with red herrings presented for them to grasp at.

To date, my conspiracy theory makes more sense than what we’ve seen of the primary research that informed Professor Lewandowsky’s paper.

I really hope that I’m wrong, as I will be extremely unhappy if research is used as bait.  But it makes a weird kind of sense…

This shows Fuller’s comment is the source of part of the quote Lewandowsky et al published, but it could not have been the source of the entire quote.  Presumably, what happened is geoffchambers quoted Fuller and responded by saying:

There’s some evidence for this theory in internal mails at SkepticalScience, where John Cook can be heard talking enthusiastically about his discussions with Stephan about gaming blogs.

Then when Lewandowsky et al copied the text of geoffchambers’ comment, they inadvertently combined the quote from Fuller with the body of geoffchambers’ comment.  In other words, they combined parts of comments from two different people into a single quote.  As though that wasn’t bad enough, neither comment can be viewed by readers of the paper as the comments were both edited/deleted by moderators of the site associated with two primary authors of this paper!

This doesn’t scratch the surface of the problems with this paper.  It also doesn’t address the fact John Cook apparently has no idea what a conspiracy theory is.  Still, if the authors of this paper are so lazy, incompetent or whatever else to completely distort and fabricate quotes, how can anyone take them seriously?

And for the record, I don’t think any of this was intentional.  I don’t think there is a conspiracy.  That would require them knowing what they’re doing!

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Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 4:56 pm

People at Skeptical Science (and John Cook) claimed a comment and post by Anthony Watts showed conspiratorial ideation because he suggested Al Gore had paid Skeptical Scicence to build a website. I think that’s silly as Skeptical Science’s involvement wasn’t hidden, and building a website is a normal activity, not some conspiratorial action. Regardless, the user Albatross said users should “ask [Anthony] publicly if he honestly thinks that there is no conspiring going on between SkS and Gore?”
So, Anthony, do you think there is conspiring going on between Skeptical Science and Al Gore?

Green Sand
March 9, 2013 4:59 pm

What we appear to have is a Cook working to a recipe complied by a psychiatrist with a schizophrenic tendency.
Hallucination and indigestion being the designed take home experience.

Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 5:07 pm

I don’t get why people would think this sort of thing is intentional. Why would Cook and Lewandowsky intentionally fabricate quotes in such an obvious way? Fabricating quotes only serves a purpose if people believe those quotes. If people reading this paper followed the links in it, they’d see the fabrications. It takes no special skills or in-depth research.
Who would intentionally write a paper and include links that make it incredibly easy to see the paper includes distortions and fabrications? Nobody. The only reason they’d do it is if they were unaware of what they’re doing. That’s incompetence, bias and things like that.

Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 5:21 pm

foxgoose, I wouldn’t be so sure this was intentional. People with large biases are very good at misreading things. They’re also very good at forgetting inconvenient facts. Bias and incompetence can cause a great deal of apparently dishonest behavior.
In this case, I suspect someone saw your comment out of context and didn’t bother to look at the discussion around it. They jumped to a conclusion, liked what they thought they saw, and they decided to include it in the paper. Laziness, bias and incompetence explains things just fine.
It’s still a case of academic misconduct, but it most likely wasn’t intentional.

cohenite
March 9, 2013 5:40 pm

From a legal perspective intention is to be inferred from the reasonable man standard or, in the case of specialists, what the reasonable standard of knowledge a specialist in question would be expected to know.
Lewandowsky is a behavioural expert and expert in the scientific method; it is reasonable, therefore, to assume he did what he did deliberately.

March 9, 2013 5:42 pm

In light of the extremely unusual “music chairs” going on with the listed peer reviewers, a look at who these reviewers are would seem a logical exercise. Of course the authors would call that reasoned review yet another conspiracy theory – but lets go ahead anyway.
On the the “Recursive” paper’s title page of the original PDF is this prominently highlighted comment from the authors:

“This Provisional PDF corresponds to the article as it appeared upon acceptance, after rigorous peer-review.”

The authors clearly state the paper had undergone “rigorous peer review” prior to acceptance. Yet as we know, the listed peer reviewers have undergone 4 different iterations after publication – multiple different variations of listed peer reviewers.
This is highly unusual – and in my personal opinion high unprofessional. It goes directly against the entire premise of rigorous peer review. And it becomes worse when one of the remaining peer reviewers has every appearance of outright “pal review” … and the 2nd remaining reviewer listed when the music stopped, is the responsible editor of the paper.
So lets look at additional facts regarding the various peer reviewers listed and the Recursive and LOG12 papers themselves.

1. Each of the original two listed peer reviewers of the Recursive also received cites to their own work in the references for this paper. Not necessarily an issue in itself, however, when taken as part of the whole – it at least seems worth scrutiny.
2. It is highly unusual that a paper will see any changes to the listed peer reviewers after publication … a single change is rare, let alone 3 different changes with 4 different reviewers listed, in a short period. There is little logical or legitimate reason to have a change of listed peer reviewers after publication. Both because peer reviewers can not change once review is complete, and because the journals own rules provide that reviewers are not identified until the paper is complete, signed off on by Editor, and accepted by the journal for publication.
The only acceptable reason a listed reviewer might change after publication is to correct a simple error – that somehow the wrong individual was listed. We know that was not the case here, for several reasons. Both initial reviewers are listed as a reference in the paper, so we know both are involved. And we know it was not a simple mistake, as the listed reviewers have changed three different times.
3. After Michael Wood was removed (who seemed fairly well qualified) as a reviewer, and Mr. Viren Swami was added in his place, for a short period a 3rd peer reviewer – Ms. Prathiba Natesan, University North Texas was added to the reviewer list. As a teacher of psychological statistics Dr. Natesan appears to have been well qualified – especially to review the underlying LOG12 work for accuracy. A brief review shows no appearance of bias or strong advocacy.
Unfortunately Ms. Nateson was soon removed as well, leaving the one original reviewer – the highly sympathetic journalism student Ms. McKewon – and the Editor, Dr. Swami. While Dr. Swami would likely be well qualified as a peer reviewer, it seems highly problematic and unethical for an Editor to also be a peer reviewer on a paper they are responsible for Editorial control over.

The myriad of changes, post publication, of the listed peer reviewers is no simple mistake. This was clearly no mere typographical error. You don’t get the listed peer reviewers for a paper wrong three different times after publication.
Add the fact the PDF of the paper has been pulled from the journal and the authors websites.
Now take the inconsistencies and problems apparent with this current paper, and add the context of the issues with the LOG12 paper:

– The early release to mainstream media of a flawed paper with a highly sensationalized inflammatory title – a title attacked and vilified by even strong supporters of the authors
– A title that reflected a minor finding of the research, a finding barely supported by the data, and which all but disappeared when the suspect responses were removed
– The strong and relevant issues with the authors data collection practices and the resultant very small sample of alleged “skeptic” responses
– Despite repeated claims from the authors that the answers could be found in the Supplemental information – no SI has ever been provided and they continue to ignore all such requests
– Despite the authors continued claims – including cites in their subsequent papers – now 9 months after the authors initial claim, the LOG12 paper has still not, been published, and to my knowledge there has been no independent public confirmation or announcement that it has been accepted for publication

So we have one paper – LOG12 – which has serious questions about its data collection, data quality, statistical analysis and conclusions … and which has to date primarily been used for advocacy/attack thru its release to the media by the authors. A paper that has never been published, nor even acknowledged to be accepted for publication, despite repeated and continued claims by the authors it was “In Press.”
And now we have a new paper, which cites as a reference, and is directly based on, the unpublished and unverified LOG12 paper, with its serious and unaddressed questions as to quality and accuracy … and this new paper has similar issues, including outright false claims about other authors work. A paper where legitimate concerns have been raised as well – about peer review, falsely citing several references/sources, incorrectly stating conclusions etc..
These are fair and legitimate questions and criticisms – based on fact. Perhaps there are simple answers, however, as is now seemingly becoming a pattern with these authors and this line of work, there are no answers forthcoming.
There is no conspiracy theory, nor is one needed. They are valid, legitimate questions. The authors have refused to address them here, just as they refused to address questions about the LOG12 paper …
This is in my opinion not the mark of professional scholarly work and/or ethical and open authors. Their own actions lend support to the claims this is not scholarly work, but rather an extension of the authors practice of “Punitive Psychology” thru their extreme advocacy and activism in support of their “Cause”.
Last – It is not a ‘conspiracy’ to ask authors to respond to legitimate criticism and questions. It is not ‘conspiracy’ to expect authors to provide the necessary support and documentation to validate and verify their work. Nor is it ‘conspiracy’ to attempt to validate and verify their work and its review…

RossP
March 9, 2013 5:48 pm

I wonder if this rubbish being put out by Lewandowsky and Cook have anything to do with a major contributor to SkS ( Dana Nuccitelli ) going off with John Abraham to set up a new blog site , sponsored by the Guardian. That is , Nuccitelli doesn’t buy the Lewandowsky line either.

Jeff Alberts
March 9, 2013 5:48 pm

Brandon Shollenberger says:
March 9, 2013 at 5:07 pm
I don’t get why people would think this sort of thing is intentional. Why would Cook and Lewandowsky intentionally fabricate quotes in such an obvious way? Fabricating quotes only serves a purpose if people believe those quotes. If people reading this paper followed the links in it, they’d see the fabrications. It takes no special skills or in-depth research.

Brandon, do you think Mann’s abuse of statistics in so many of his paleo papers was unintentional? I think it more likely that Mann (along with Lew and Cook), wouldn’t expect anyone but Skeptics to object. Much like we saw in the CRU emails, the only objections by compatriots were in private. The know that the objections by skeptics would be ignored by the MSM, and therefore the public at large.
I don’t know if all of the LewCookian missteps were intentional, but you have to believe that some of them were.

Skiphil
March 9, 2013 6:02 pm

Brandon and A. Scott,
Thanks to you both for many informative comments. While I have not devoted the same degree of scrutiny to these matters that each of you have, I do agree with Brandon that there probably is not conscious or intentional malfeasance in this and some related cases. There is a great deal of passion, bias, and ideological motivation involved. People like Lewandowsky and Cook are so certain they are right and so heartily despising their critics that they cannot proceed with sufficient deliberation and care, it seems. I do think a lot of the failings of alarmist types has more to do with confirmation bias, ideology, and save-the-world hysteria than any conscious malfeasance. Noble cause corruption, indeed.

Skiphil
March 9, 2013 6:08 pm

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable about cognitive psychology than Stephan Lewandowsky has proved to be should write up an article or case study on this sordid affair, analyzing cognitive biases and failings in relation to such general concepts as:
Group think
Confirmation bias
Cognitive distortion
Noble cause corruption
Plus related more specific and technical terms in the psychology literature.

Lew Skannen
March 9, 2013 6:32 pm

Incompetence or malign intent (conspiracy)?
I have no problem using the word ‘conspiracy’ when we are referring to a couple of fanatical activists who have already displayed their dishonesty on many occasions.
It is not in the same league as the whacky ‘9/11’ or ‘Faked Lunar Landing’ conspiracies which they would like to try and tie us to, it is just a case of two sad losers getting to the end of their use-by dates and flailing around desperately for something with which to attack science and reason. They are in the same league as two punks who plan to break into a parked car but if they plan it then it is a conspiracy and I see no reason to shy away from the word.

Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 6:32 pm

Jeff Alberts:

Brandon, do you think Mann’s abuse of statistics in so many of his paleo papers was unintentional?

Definitely. I don’t think he has the knowledge or skill for the work he tried to do. He has never done anything to indicate otherwise, and he’s done much to indicate it. I challenge anyone to find anything he has ever written that inspires confidence in his abilities.

Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 6:34 pm

Skiphil, an article? I could write a book.

March 9, 2013 7:13 pm

A closer read will show Lewandowsky actually set up the current “Recursive” paper in a way that allows them to ignore the factual basis and/or truthfulness of any claim. Its not a conspiracy theory if its true – except in Lewndowskys world of activism and advocacy based ‘Punitive Psychology.’

Chris B
March 9, 2013 9:05 pm

This song reminds me of what Dr. Lew’s work is to science.

Chris B
March 9, 2013 9:15 pm

Chris B says:
March 9, 2013 at 9:05 pm
This song reminds me of what Dr. Lew’s work is to science.
_______________________________________
The illuminati made me do it……….

Chris B
March 9, 2013 9:22 pm

2:56 says it all.

March 9, 2013 9:40 pm

RossP
I’m sure your guess about Nuccitelli not buying the Lewandowsky line is correct.
In the leaked internal SkepticalScience correspondence (the TreeHouse Files) Cook enthuses about Lewandowsky and their projects on no less than 54 threads. Only once (on the subject of their joint Debunker’s handbook) does anyone reply.
The rest of the gang just don’t seem too enthusiastic about Lew, or Cook’s admiration for Lew’s habit of “poking the ants’ nest.”
Cook has a young family, and no obvious income from SkS. Thanks to his association with Lewandowsky, he’s got some kind of University post. Their joint paper, which defames me and Foxgoose and others, has been withdrawn from the journal’s website because of a complaint from Jeff Id and will surely never be published. It’s quite sad really.
I’ve got copies of my original posts, before they were mangled, if Brandon or anyone is interested.

DaveA
March 9, 2013 10:00 pm

They know they’re being sloppy though, so they know these things are likely to happen. If you drive your car around wearing a blindfold we won’t accept that you didn’t intend to crash the car.

March 9, 2013 10:27 pm

Sorry Brandon, I should have thanked you for all the work you’ve done on this. I should have done it myself. I did some posts on this paper starting with
http://geoffchambers.wordpress.com/2013/02/07/lewandowsky-the-liar/
and
http://geoffchambers.wordpress.com/2013/02/09/lews-lies-2-trick-or-tweet/
but I was more interested in Cook’s false claim to have advertised the LOG12 “Moon Landing” survey at Skeptical Science. Since this claim is repeated in the 2013 paper; this alone would be a reason to withdraw it , if it ever comes back to life.
If Brandon or A Scott want to get in touch, just comment at one of the above posts.

Brandon Shollenberger
March 9, 2013 10:54 pm

geoffchambers, I would definitely be interested. At the very least, it would let me (dis)confirm my guess as to how they came up with that fabricated quote. That’d be great. My e-mail address is just my name, separated by a period, at gmail.
By the way, your comment about their forum reminds me I’ve still never looked at it. Is there a working link for the files?

DaveA
March 9, 2013 11:01 pm

Geoff, I believe it was Cook’s other pal Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (“Barrier Reef doomed”) who’d had a lot to do with that appointment…

Was waiting outside the GCI boardroom, the door opened, Ove came out and said, trying to lighten the mood, “come in for your execution”. Uh, thanks, Ove! So I started my PPT explaining what I hoped to do in the role. Was surprisingly relaxed (but still quite psyched about it all). I quoted a CSIRO scientist who at a communication workshop said “to get the climate message across, we need to make climate science cool… Like what skeptical science is doing”. This got a good reaction. Then to show an example of what I’d like to do, I handed out my iPad with The Elements app (with carbon as the selected element). You should’ve seen their eyes light up. Ove asked the name of the app and scribbled down the name in his notes. Then at one point, I also handed out my iPod with the SkS app (joking about all my props). I mentioned that Malcolm Turnbull had the SkS app (thanks James) which also lit up their eyes.
So the talk went well. Then they asked questions. One question was how I’d handle interdisciplinary matters with experts from different fields disagreeing about issues, how I’d resolve differences. I tried to think of examples in the SkS community where there were disputes but I couldn’t think of anything substantial. You lot just get on together too well!
They asked what would I consider successful in my job after 3 years. I said if Australia still had a price on carbon in 3 years, I’d consider that a success (that would require a major turning of public opinion about carbon pricing in this country, which will probably be my main purpose for the next year or two).
Ove also asked what my career plans were, where I hoped to be in 10 years. I had expected this kind of question but to be honest, I have no career plans – probably a huge faux pas in a job interview but I have no ambition other than making a difference. So maybe that was a bad answer (a bit sappy really, something you’d say in a Disney movie).
Anyway, they said they’d be deciding the position at the end of the day and I went home, pretty satisfied that I got through it without walking into any furniture or drooling down my chin.
At the end of the day, I got a phone call from GCI. They said they had 3 interviews. The other two applicants “were quite strong”. Then they offered me the job.

In fairness to JC when you glance over the job description he does seem to have it nailed. Why that position needs to exist is another debate to be had…

James Bull
March 10, 2013 1:03 am

There are many proverbs that could be applied to their antics but I think this one fits best.
Do you see a man wise in his own eyes?
There is more hope for a fool than for him.
Proverbs 26:12
A fool comes in for a great deal of stick from the writer of proverbs so to have less hope is a bad place to be.
James Bull

tallbloke
March 10, 2013 1:26 am

Charles Gerard Nelson says:
March 9, 2013 at 2:46 pm
I think Cook and Lewandowsky would have made a great comedy duo in the days of music hall or silent film. They combine that subtle blend of qualities that made acts like Laurel and Hardy and Abbott and Costello much loved household names… much of the comedy arises from their attempts to cover up and hide the escalating trail of mistakes they have made… and like all great comedic creations, when they’re in a hole they just dig faster!
…In years to come (and sooner than you think) we will look back on the Golden Age of climate comedy when stars like Lewandowsky and Cook who infuriated us, made us laugh and sometimes even reduced us to tears with their daft antics – have left the firmament.
We may never see their like again.

I wrote this skit after the moon landing paper:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/12/lewd-lew-and-aggie-w-a-failed-romance/

JJB MKI
March 10, 2013 3:34 am

I haven’t come across the term ‘punitive psychology’ before. Can anyone explain it?

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