Dr. Ryan Maue posted one of his WeatherBell analysis maps on Twitter today, and the result is no Headline maker, it is simply “normal”.
He writes (image follows):
February 2013 global temperature anomaly compared to 1981-2010 mean: -0.001°C or 1/1000th of a degree below avg.
It will be interesting to see what the other climate data sources show for February.
Don’t you love Phobos?
The way he/she/it slipped in that little Warmist jibe…’please show your work’.
Let me respond thus:
Michael Mann, please show your work.
Keith Briffa, please show your work.
Mr Pauchuri, please show your work.
UK Met Office…please show your work.
James Hansen, please show your work….etc etc ad nauseum.
Climategate Fudge anyone?
Hector Pascal
“We’ve just hit a new record (breaking last winter’s record) with snow 2.4 metres….”
The Sea of Japan and surrounding waters have been cold (anomaly) for the majority of the NH winter, still showing below normal now:-
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Good luck Hector, I trust you do not need to wait too much longer for the onset of spring.
Phobos,
according to the Earth System Research Laboratory at NOAA there has been an increase in specific humidity at ground level of about 0.4g/kg since about 1950. Is this the expected rise that is required to accomodate the IPCC central value for climate sensitivity?
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
Phobos says:
“What is your definition of “long term average?””
The red line.
NZ Willy says:
“I’m calling out ‘Phobos’ as a paid spammer, albeit an academic one.”
I agree, NZW. He is spamming the threads.
[Reply: thread-bombing violates site Policy. Fair warning for ‘Phobos’. — mod.]
@ur momisugly A.D. Everard: February 28, 2013 at 8:42 pm:
Maybe I do the alarmists a disservice. If so, I apologize to all alarmists. Maybe not even they would go that far. So, I guess they’ll just ignore this piece of normal and wait for the next piece of rain, snow, cool weather, warm weather, dry weather, meteorites, giant jellyfish, small mammals, oh yes, and Mexicans, or any of the rest of the crazy things they can point to and blame on CAGW.
You forgot the earthworms.
@ur momisugly Peter Pond; February 28, 2013 at 11:02 pm
Well, here in Australia, today’s big news according to our BOM (Met Bureau) and ABC (Govt owned media), is that we (Australia) have just had our hottest summer on record (due to an extended heatwave in mid-January). The BOM official making the announcement was happy to add that if CO2 emissions continue at their present rate, this record heat will become the new “normal” for Aussie summers. No mention of cold winter temps in the northern hemisphere, of course.
If I heard correctly on the radio, today – 1st March, was the coldest March day recorded for 13 years.
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:39 pm
“If global humidity is increasing, but winter temperatures are still below freezing, what would you expect but more snowfall in winter…? ”
As this seems to be in reply to Jimmy Haigh’s comment on record Japan snowfall, let me expand.
In winter, a blocking high (just dicoverd by PIK, yay) forms over central Siberia, and very cold, very dry air descends flows over much of Asia from that.
The second part of the system are the low pressure cells which in winter track from SW-NE along the length of the Japanese archipelago. These draw the dry Arctic air flow from the NW across the Sea of Japan, where it loads with moisture before dumping it as snow on Honshu and Hokkaido. North Americans will recognise this as the Lake Effect.
An important difference between North America and Japan is the Sea of Japan is much warmer than the Great Lakes, and the fetch is much longer. Therefore Japan sees huge volumes of winter snow. The volume of snow we get depends entirely on the number, the strength and the persistance of the low pressure cells. The snow is not related to “global humidity”, rather the volume of water in the Sea of Japan, and its temperature.
I will speculate that the snowfall records we are seeing may relate to the negative PDO. Warmer water in the Western Pacific increases the temperature difference wrt continental Asia and may increase the number of low pressure cells. I don’t know. Formal snowfall records only go back to about 1960. Far too short (for me at least) to be able to tease out a correlation.
Sorry, should have included the East Coast around Sydney & the Hunter.
Antarctic sea ice extent above ‘normal’.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Arctic temps below ‘normal’ and dropping. (north of the 80th northern parallel)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
SnowfallsCo2 fluffy stuff is no longer a thing of the past, kids have an idea what it is. And a global temperature standstill of 16 years and counting.This is really becoming a cat and mouse game. Imagine if Warmists back in 1998 could see into the future and where we are today. Their only cause of real ‘concern’ would be the Arctic. Yet doubts must creep in about everything else. Would they have nailed their flags to the mast?
Steve B says:- “Here in Oz there was one news service that said we had the hottest summer evah and another news service said we had the wettest summer evah. So does that mean we have moved closer to the equator??”
No. It means the equator has moved closer to you, just as the Arctic circle has moved closer to me here in England. Just normal changes to climate zones in response to a ‘quieter than normal’ sun…
I think it is time to remind everyone of the great alarmist heresy:
Natural climate cycles.
Natural climate cycles dominate our planet’s climate, they always have and they always will. Man’s influence on climate in recent times is probably measurable – if we knew how – but it is no more than a mildly interesting phenomenon.
A huge parasite industry has developed to hype up this mildly interesting phenomenon. The geological record clearly demonstrates the concept of CAGW is complete BS, which is why it is almost impossible to find a non-government geologist who believes in ‘global warming’. I suppose there is no need to remind anyone any more that those in government and quasi-government organisations are required to sing from the official hymn book, or there will be employment consequences.
How long will it be before historians compare CAGW to the black tulip mania of 1637? In CAGW terms, perhaps 2013 will be the equivalent of 1637 in black tulip terms. Let’s hope so.
Are these graphs of any use considering it’s from Warmist tampered Wiki?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ice_Age_Temperature.png
As for Arctic ice would these be of any help?
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFMPP11A0203F
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185
http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/21/3/227.abstract
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17796050
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747.abstract
http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf
Yes, I also want to know what was “causing this “climbing?”” between ~1860 to 1940?
[Note: When did the IPCC state that man’s co2 started having a discernible effect? – after 1960 – if memory serves me].
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5620
BruceC says:
March 1, 2013 at 1:07 am
“If I heard correctly on the radio, today – 1st March, was the coldest March day recorded for 13 years.”
And there I was thinking 30 years. The pounding rain muted the radio a bit, maybe a lot.
Europe has had a cold February.
Where I live in Spain it has been very cold compared to previous years. I note from the Map that Europe appears to be between 1 to 3 degrees below normal. Where I live in Spain, I would concur that it has been 3 or so degrees below normal. At 10 o clock, I have already put the fire on. At the end of February/March, in previous years, I might not have needed the fire at all, and certainly would not have put it on until after sun down say at 7 to 7:30 pm.
Yesterday, we had 3 typhoons over the sea. It was a spectacular sight seeing the sea being ripped up into the atmosphere. I spoke to many people and no one could remember a previous occassion when one could see 3 typhoons at the same time. A rare event, but only weather.
sydney had two very hot days last summer the rest of summer was normal or cold enought to have the heater on 1/3/2013 very cold and wet as for the left wing CSIRO they should be ashamed of them selves
@Martin February 28, 2013 at 8:57 pm:
Not 97% of scientists, 97% of ‘Climate Scientists’. This is a very important distinction. Amongst these, the number only represents those who responded to a survey asking if they believed the world had warmed (regardless of anthropogenic influence). Respondents numbered less than 100. Scientists in every field have a whole range of opinions on CAGW; the degree of warming; whether it presents a problem and so on. What are known as ‘Climate Scientists’ – the ones who present themselves as activists, are generally semi trained statisticians who would almost all lose their shirts if the CAGW scare failed, hence are driven (and not necessarily consciously) to only acknowledge and present cherry picked data, make tenuous connections between weather / climate events, hugely exaggerate certainty in measurement and simulated predictions, and reverse the laws of cause and effect. Not that this in itself necessarily indicates they are wrong, but the data as a whole indicates that they probably are.
Your post seems odd to me, and not far off the reverse of the alarmist claim that all sceptics are right-wing conspiracy theorists. One of the central tactics of CAGW alarmists is to try and win the scientific community around to their side by painting opponents as somehow ‘anti science’. This creates an ‘us and them’ attitude towards sceptics which ensures that the wider scientific community is unlikely to even consider, let alone address valid sceptical arguments. Sceptics, assuming their comments are real, should be very careful not to let their annoyance at being misrepresented play into this and become a real ‘them’ with which to alienate scientists.
Jimmy Haigh says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:21 pm
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Bearing in mind that there has been no further warming these past 17 or so years, how could that event be caused by global warming? Why were we not seeing such events in 1998 when temperatures peaked or in the couple of years that followed. Surely if global warming was the cause, we would have expected to see more extreme events in the period of say 1997 to 2000.
There appears to be a logical disconnect somewhere.
It would be fair enough for the BBC to report that ‘Some scientists say this could be because of global warming’, but if they want to report that, they should (for the sake of objectivity and balance)at the same time report that the UK MET Office and the head of the IPCC have both confirmed that there has been no statistically significant warming these past 17 years. Then the viewer is informed and can draw a conclusion on the significant of each statement.
Peter Miller at 1:34 am: ‘How long will it be before historians compare CAGW to the black tulip mania of 1637?’. There are some painful examples in history but not this one. The tulip mania was a bogus market in early Dutch capitalism. It was not created by a government that needed a bogus market/science in order to control the populace. When it collapsed, some people lost their money. Happens all the time.
Peter Miller says:
March 1, 2013 at 1:34 am
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I am tempted to agree with the thrust of your comments. I too suspect that man has had some influence but I suspect that this is for the main part local and not global. Building a dam, deforestation, irrigation of crops over a large area, the building of concrete cities with UHI, all may well have contributed to some local impact on climate to some small degree.
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 9:19 pm
Bob Tisdale says:
“I wonder when GISS, and UKMO, and NOAA for their global temperature products will start using 1981-2010 as base years for anomalies as recommended by the WMO. Probably never.”
Why should they?
The difference is just a constant, easily calculated
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Phobos, I note your logic.
Using the same logic, please explain why we do not use as a 30 year base figure from which to calculate anomalies, say a 30 year average taken at the time of the Holocene optimum, or say around the Minoan, or Roman warm periods?
Green Sand
Thanks very much for the image. I hadn’t seen that. I know where the missing heat from the Sea of Japan is: it’s lying as a phase change in my bailiwick. I showed it to the memsahib. She was impressed.
One-one thousandth? Can it get more normal than that?
It’d be nice if we had some data on the thickness and age of ice in arctic at various locations and depths from before people started crying that the sky was melting. I’d be suprised if much of the ice is older than 80 years. I bet the ice fluctuates mostly with PDO and the satellites just happened to start at a peak.
What is “normal” and who gets to determine what that is?