In light of what happened yesterday, this story is even more relevant now. It was written before the meteor event in Russia.
Asteroid 2012 DA14 makes its closest approach at 2:24 p.m. EST/1924 GMT today. One wonders if yesterday’s meteor in Russia wasn’t some parts of the asteroid fragmented in a deep space collision eons ago and in a similar trajectory hours ahead. It may also be simply coincidence. [UPDATE: NASA has issued a statement on this, see below.]
While politicians, their activist friends, and pundits caterwaul over a few tenths of a degree change in the global temperature over the last 100 years, with some Ehrlich-like nutballs even claiming it will cause extinction of humanity, today might be a good day to recognize a real extinction level challenge humanity faces.
A Warning From the Asteroid Hunters
The likelihood in this century of an asteroid impact with 700 times the destructive power of the Hiroshima A-bomb: 30%.
In the game of cosmic roulette that is our solar system, we just got lucky. Earth will get a very close shave on Friday, Feb. 15, when Asteroid DA14 passes just 17,000 miles from our planet. That is less than the distance from New York to Sydney and back, or the distance the Earth travels around the sun in 14 minutes. We are dodging a very large bullet.
The people of Earth also are getting a reminder that even in our modern society, our future is affected by the motion of astronomical bodies. The ancients were correct in their belief that the heavens affect life on Earth—just not in the way they imagined. Sometimes those heavenly bodies actually run into Earth. That is why we must make it our mission to find asteroids before they find us.
The last major asteroid impact on Earth was on June 30, 1908, when one about the size of an office building (140 feet across) slammed into Siberia with a destructive energy 700 times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. That asteroid devastated a region roughly the size of the San Francisco Bay area. Asteroid 2012 DA14, which will be passing over our heads on Friday, is about the same size as the asteroid that devastated Siberia’s Tunguska region. . . .
The chance of another Tunguska-size impact somewhere on Earth this century is about 30%. That isn’t the likelihood that you will be killed by an asteroid, but rather the odds that you will read a news headline about an asteroid impact of this size somewhere on Earth. Unfortunately, that headline could be about the destruction of a city, as opposed to an unpopulated region of Siberia. . . .
The chance in your lifetime of an even bigger asteroid impact on Earth—with explosive energy of 100 megatons of TNT—is about 1%. Such an impact would deliver many times the explosive energy of all the munitions used in World War II, including the atomic bombs.
Full story here at the WSJ.
Meanwhile, Barbara Boxer and friends want to create a tax to put billions into climate research while the asteroid program gets by on a shoestring. It only takes one asteroid to ruin your whole day, global warming, not so much.
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NASA’s Spaceweather.com website writes:
At 9:30 am on Friday, Feb. 15th, asteroid 2012 DA14 will fly past Earth only 17,200 miles above our planet’s surface. This will put it well inside the orbit of geosynchronous satellites, closer than any asteroid of the same size has come since regular sky surveys began in the 1990s. Researchers speculate that Earth’s gravity might even cause seismic activity on the 50m-wide space rock. Click to view a computer simulation of the flyby, courtesy of NASA:
During the hours around closest approach, the asteroid will brighten until it resembles a star of 8th magnitude. Theoretically, that’s an easy target for backyard telescopes. The problem is speed. The asteroid will be racing across the sky, moving almost a full degree (or twice the width of a full Moon) every minute. That’s going to be hard to track. Only the most experienced amateur astronomers are likely to succeed. For the rest of us, NASA will broadcast the asteroid’s flyby on NASA TV.
Asteroid 2012 DA14 is about the same size as previous asteroids responsible for the Meteor Crater in Arizona and the Tunguska Event in Siberia. Unlike those objects, however, 2012 DA14 will not hit Earth. Even if seismic activity breaks the asteroid apart, there is no danger; the fragments would continue along the same non-intersecting path as the original asteroid.
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UPDATE: (via NASA’s spaceweather.com)
It is natural to wonder if this event has any connection to today’s record-setting flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14. NASA has issued the following statement:
“The trajectory of the Russian meteorite was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object. Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite and analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14’s trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north.”
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It’s funny that the headline is an attention getter, because every problem is bigger than “global warming.” For at least the next 40,000 years, we’ll never enjoy again the pleasant conditions of the Holocene optimum, and might not even regain the warmth of the MWP.
Colin Patrick Barth says: February 15, 2013 at 10:17 am “Err, can someone in the know please explain why the objects of smaller mass could not simply have been caught by the Earth’s gravity, and looped around the sphere of our planet in an unstable orbit, …” They were – a looong time and many orbits ago so that almost all have been swept up by the Earth Moon system. The Solar System is old by the standards of life.
Any chance of that airhead on that US TV news programme suggesting it was something to do with global warming?
It seems likely to me that remains of the meteorite that struck in Russia will be found. Won’t analysis of that material enable scientists to prove or disprove whether it was a piece of 2012 DA14?
The luminence of DA14 will intensify to a prominence of a magnitude 8 star, according to the article. What magnitude is necessary for a spectroscopic analysis?
The Burkle Crater, a 30km crater under 3,800 meters of ocean, a mere 5,000 years ago. Coincides with the flood legends.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burckle_Crater
Update:
“16:35 GMT: The Emergency Ministry has since denied sending out SMS warnings about the meteor shower in the Chelyabinsk region. The ministry added that informing residents started after the incident and the spokesperson who spread the false information on the incident was fired.”
http://rt.com/news/russia-meteor-meteorite-asteroid-chelyabinsk-291/
The suggestion that the meteorite could “loop” around the earth and come from a different direction displays a fundamental ignorance of the of motion bodies in a gravitational field. In order for this to happen, the speed of the meteorite would need to be close to the orbital velocity of the earth, which depends on the distance to the earth. If the speed and tangential velocity were just right, then a body could get pulled into an orbital trajectory. If the speed was a little too low, it could “spiral” down and hit the earth like man-made satellites do when they run out of fuel. If the speed is too high, the trajectory may indeed bend, but the object will not strike earth at all. It will continue on its new path.
The first problem is that this one was moving much too fast to be trapped by the earth’s gravity. Even if it were travelling more slowly (which it was not), a spiral orbit would be easy to observe from ground tracking instruments (and amateur observers all around the globe).
So sorry, no NASA conspiracy here. Just physics.
The brightest meteorite I’ve ever seen just flashed across the sky SE to NW, Australian WST 3:45 AM. No noise though.
On Fox News: 2:04 pm CST: Video Cam from Michael Garnet.
It WAS an “earth quake.” The shockwave hit the ground directly under the metor explosion. Then the ground deflection raced outward as Rayliegh Waves at 2-5 km/s (depending upon frequency) faster than the air shock wave.
“In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south.”
Isn’t that the usual trajectory for low earth orbit satellites in polar orbit (e.g. “spy” satellites)? Would be ironic if this was just a Russian satellite “coming home”.
Idiocy on display
http://video.foxnews.com/v/2166556494001/
Apparently meteors of this size and explosive power happen are quite common and this is only news because of the asteriod. Oh, and because there are more cameras.
Exactly how many humans have been injured from meteors in recorded history before this? Ummm…perhaps that is why it is news.
According to wikipedia there are only 4 other recorded about same size explosion since 1908.
“A problem that is bigger than global warming”
…but I thought that was the imminent New Little Ice Age – publicized on the Village’s church notice board as recently as just over 3 years ago. Was that all just alarmism, or should we all continue to prepare for this catastrophic event?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/28/the-sun-defines-the-climate-an-essay-from-russia/
Crater of the russian meteorite
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54WjxkNnB_A?feature=player_embedded&w=640&h=360%5D
[Reply: No, it’s not. — mod.]
Alex,
That is not a meteorite crater. IIRC, it’s called the Gates of Hell. Methane is burning.
There is more to worry about down here than there is up there. Back in 2007 (not 2008 when we got around to noticing it) the global banking system went broke. We haven’t fixed it and it is not fixable and although we have not declared bankruptcy, bankrupt is what we are. There is no lender of last resort: no white knight. We are bust and we are on our own. The space advances commencing in the late ‘fifties were as much a matter of the ability to pay for the concerted effort, as it was to science and the superb engineering. Without the wealth, primarily of the United States, little could have been achieved. We now face a decade or two, of attempting to pull ourselves up by our bootlaces and developing asteroid deflecting technology in the meantime is likely to prove impossible. The CO2 nonsense and much else is likely to die a natural death.
Stealey, may be! Will check.
Nature has a preliminary size of the bolide at 15 meters, 7000 tons and a kinetic energy of 188 kilotons if traveling at 15 km/sec. The size estimate is from the Nature article. The energy estimate is from the Cosmic Tusk. Cheers –
http://www.nature.com/news/russian-meteor-largest-in-a-century-1.12438
agimarc-that can’t be a talking head told me they happen frequently every 10yrs or so
Alex,
Look here:
http://www.geeksaresexy.net/2008/09/29/darvaza-a-gate-to-hell-on-earth
I’m with you except for “bird flu!” ALL influenza viruses are “bird flu”! The only H5N1 we are likely to be killed by will spring out of a university lab operated by a rent-seeking public health scientist someplace http://harvardmagazine.com/2013/03/h5n1-the-deadliest-virus
If you want to cower in fear of a virus, I’d recommend the coronavirus (pathogen of SARS). Otherwise, I agree with all (including A. Watts) that we should be afraid, very afraid, of an asteroid hit in the future. This is reason no. 1 for an inhabited moon base IMHO.
Carter U says:
February 15, 2013 at 11:45 am
…
The meteor that hit Russia had the complete opposite trajectory of asteroid 2012 DA14, if a fragment from this asteroid had been traveling ahead of it by a few hours or more it is far more likely that this estimated 10 ton rock had passed earth and slowed down as earth caught up with it and pulled it in, this would explain the north east to south west direction and it’s speed. Anyone declaring this a coincidence may as-well be calling it a supernatural event. Another fact is that asteroids do not usually travel alone, if this asteroid originated from the asteroid belt it would have been ejected by other impacts, which means there will be a trail of debris traveling in a similar orbit. NASA outright dismissing this event as a coincidence is irresponsible, It’s as though they are throwing out valuable information on what takes place during these close-encounters with asteroids. Their will be other flybys in the near future, Is the Russian Meteor evidence that shows us; even if the main asteroid safely passes by, there remains the danger of smaller objects of 10-30 tons traveling with the main object hitting us?
The only thing this big rock reminds me is that our puny species needs to expand off of this rock we call Earth for ultimate survival… that alone would ease fears of resource depletion and over population.. The solar system has a huge rock pile with enough resources to last us well into our future. We are stagnant and until we have a frontier to explore as is the human’s nature… we shall continue to decline.
Out there is an asteroid with our number on it. NASA should be concentrating its efforts on this rather than politically inspired AGW. Being a bit of a meteorite buff myself, one thing about the avoidance of an impact that I find foolish to the extreme is why they never contemplate trying to break the asteroid in to pieces shortly before it hits the atmosphere if the opportunity to deflect is insufficient. More of the impactor will be ablated if it is in multiple pieces. More of the cosmic velocity will be reduced by friction of the atmosphere, so the E=1/2 mv SQUARED kinetic energy will be substantially reduced(I estimate by 90%). A single large impact can penetrate into the earth’s mantle, causing a rupture on the other side of the planet and subsequent trap basalt eruptions along with deadly sulphur emissions, long term solar blocking and almost certain extinction of human life along with the cute and furry creatures the warmists seem to love above humans. The large single impact also will always spread a proportionally larger plume of ejecta high in to the atmosphere to block solar radiation with subsequent collapse of the food chain. A series of smaller ,say Meteor Crater (Arizona) size impacts will have that series of 100 mile devastation zones, but the rest of humanity will be probably be largely spared.
A single 10km asteroid impact would almost certainly render humans extinct. Life in the post nuclear winter would certainly be harsh to put it mildly. If it landed in the ocean (more than likely) the tsunami would bounce around all the oceans(multiple times) flooding many areas to 500 metres to a kilometre altitude ie half the world’s population in one hit.No way you could move the coastal populations out and a long way inland that quickly. Then the crop losses from no solar radiation. What would be the dominant food supply? Fellow humans of course. But how could this be sustainable for a couple of years?
Even the cumulative effect of say 10,000 Meteor Crater size impacts would probably not create the deep mantle effects with subsequent crust rupture and volcanic activity . Although there would be a substantial reduction in solar radiation (warmists should be jumping with joy), the food chain is more likely to at least partially survive and probably a respectable number of species human and non human. Although life would never be the same again, humans, like the cockroaches, may survive the Holocaust.
>>But there’s a 75% chance it’ll happen over the ocean somewhere and thus do no damage, other than providing a light show for remote sensors.<<
In your dreams!
Apart from the obvious tsumani problem, quite a chunk of the kinetic energy would be translated into superheated steam, thus a very large quantity of energy would be practically instantaneously inserted into the atmospheric system, causing some very high winds,
If sufficient energy is injected, will this not incur a strong possibility of disrupting the whole climatic system, stopping the cyclone-anticyclone circulation in both hemispheres for a considerable period of time,possibly causing a ice age?
David L. Hagen says:
February 15, 2013 at 8:08 am says:
Shoemaker-Levy was a comet, identified by Gene Shoemaker’s wife Carolyn as an atypical fuzzball. Normally comets are round fuzzballs, this was elongated and people quickly realized from the orbital elements and higher resolution photos that the comet was fragmented by Jupiter’s gravitational field, captured, and would impact Jupiter at the next perijove or whatever that’s called.
I’m not sure about the 6 teratons, but note that Jupiter’s gravitational field would accelerate the comet close to escape velocity, and that would provide much greater kinetic energy for the collision.
I saw the impact sites with a small telescope. The expectation before impact was that a larger scope would be necessary, so it was quite delightful to see dark spots in person.
Read more about the discovery team, the comet, and the impact at
http://www.amazon.com/Shoemaker-Levy-Man-Made-Impact/dp/0691113254/
Gene Shoemaker convinced the scientific community that the Moon’s craters were from impacts, not volcanoes. While he didn’t make it to the Moon until after his death, it was wonderfully appropriate that he should find the first comet we saw hit a planet.