In light of what happened yesterday, this story is even more relevant now. It was written before the meteor event in Russia.
Asteroid 2012 DA14 makes its closest approach at 2:24 p.m. EST/1924 GMT today. One wonders if yesterday’s meteor in Russia wasn’t some parts of the asteroid fragmented in a deep space collision eons ago and in a similar trajectory hours ahead. It may also be simply coincidence. [UPDATE: NASA has issued a statement on this, see below.]
While politicians, their activist friends, and pundits caterwaul over a few tenths of a degree change in the global temperature over the last 100 years, with some Ehrlich-like nutballs even claiming it will cause extinction of humanity, today might be a good day to recognize a real extinction level challenge humanity faces.
A Warning From the Asteroid Hunters
The likelihood in this century of an asteroid impact with 700 times the destructive power of the Hiroshima A-bomb: 30%.
In the game of cosmic roulette that is our solar system, we just got lucky. Earth will get a very close shave on Friday, Feb. 15, when Asteroid DA14 passes just 17,000 miles from our planet. That is less than the distance from New York to Sydney and back, or the distance the Earth travels around the sun in 14 minutes. We are dodging a very large bullet.
The people of Earth also are getting a reminder that even in our modern society, our future is affected by the motion of astronomical bodies. The ancients were correct in their belief that the heavens affect life on Earth—just not in the way they imagined. Sometimes those heavenly bodies actually run into Earth. That is why we must make it our mission to find asteroids before they find us.
The last major asteroid impact on Earth was on June 30, 1908, when one about the size of an office building (140 feet across) slammed into Siberia with a destructive energy 700 times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. That asteroid devastated a region roughly the size of the San Francisco Bay area. Asteroid 2012 DA14, which will be passing over our heads on Friday, is about the same size as the asteroid that devastated Siberia’s Tunguska region. . . .
The chance of another Tunguska-size impact somewhere on Earth this century is about 30%. That isn’t the likelihood that you will be killed by an asteroid, but rather the odds that you will read a news headline about an asteroid impact of this size somewhere on Earth. Unfortunately, that headline could be about the destruction of a city, as opposed to an unpopulated region of Siberia. . . .
The chance in your lifetime of an even bigger asteroid impact on Earth—with explosive energy of 100 megatons of TNT—is about 1%. Such an impact would deliver many times the explosive energy of all the munitions used in World War II, including the atomic bombs.
Full story here at the WSJ.
Meanwhile, Barbara Boxer and friends want to create a tax to put billions into climate research while the asteroid program gets by on a shoestring. It only takes one asteroid to ruin your whole day, global warming, not so much.
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NASA’s Spaceweather.com website writes:
At 9:30 am on Friday, Feb. 15th, asteroid 2012 DA14 will fly past Earth only 17,200 miles above our planet’s surface. This will put it well inside the orbit of geosynchronous satellites, closer than any asteroid of the same size has come since regular sky surveys began in the 1990s. Researchers speculate that Earth’s gravity might even cause seismic activity on the 50m-wide space rock. Click to view a computer simulation of the flyby, courtesy of NASA:
During the hours around closest approach, the asteroid will brighten until it resembles a star of 8th magnitude. Theoretically, that’s an easy target for backyard telescopes. The problem is speed. The asteroid will be racing across the sky, moving almost a full degree (or twice the width of a full Moon) every minute. That’s going to be hard to track. Only the most experienced amateur astronomers are likely to succeed. For the rest of us, NASA will broadcast the asteroid’s flyby on NASA TV.
Asteroid 2012 DA14 is about the same size as previous asteroids responsible for the Meteor Crater in Arizona and the Tunguska Event in Siberia. Unlike those objects, however, 2012 DA14 will not hit Earth. Even if seismic activity breaks the asteroid apart, there is no danger; the fragments would continue along the same non-intersecting path as the original asteroid.
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UPDATE: (via NASA’s spaceweather.com)
It is natural to wonder if this event has any connection to today’s record-setting flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14. NASA has issued the following statement:
“The trajectory of the Russian meteorite was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object. Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite and analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14’s trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north.”
Anthony:
Be careful about making this point too strongly. There is nothing to stop Ms. Boxer from slipping an Asteroid Tax into the mix.
oldfossil says:
February 15, 2013 at 3:48 am
“According to SpaceWatch, your chances of being killed by an asteroid/comet impact are higher than your chances of dying in an airliner crash. Although such an impact only occurs perhaps once in 100,000 years, it would kill a third of earth’s population. ”
Maybe I didn’t look hard enough, but I couldn’t find the above at the link provided. So what size asteroid would kill 1/3 of earth’s population? The comment sounds like something the SpaceWatch’s equivalent of James Hansen would put out there to increase his funding.
But I agree with Anthony, I’d rather defund the CAGW clowns and give it to anything to do with space. I became an engineer because I figured that was my ticket to be on living on Mars by now.
Apophis( coming in 2029 and again in 2036) is estimated to be about 4 to 6 times bigger than the 50 meter 2012 DA14 passing earth today but coming just as close to earth. Notice that this will be a once in 800 year event
BACKGROUND
Upon its discovery in 2004, Apophis was briefly estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting the Earth in 2029. Additional measurements later showed there was no impact risk at that time from the 210-330 meter (690-1080 foot) diameter object, identified spectroscopically as an Sq type similar to LL chondritic meteorites. However, there will be a historically close approach to the Earth, estimated to be a 1 in 800 year event (on average, for an object of that size).
No links? A google search brings up nothing except your comment here, and another very brief comment on a different site, mostly talking about DA14… I’m calling BS unless you can bring something other than “artwork”. With all the amateur astronomers out there, something would have been in the news.
I have always wondered if one could break up a lager meteor into smaller chunks to increase the likelihood of air bursts rather than one large crust shifting impact. Either way it is going to cause a great deal of damage, but if a 10km beast strikes the damage will be tremendous, if 1000, 100m ones were to strike, spread out over the circumference of the Earth, it would still be horrible and kill many people, but probably wouldn’t cause massive geological reactions or cause dust and forest fires that leave a geologic layer around the world.
The idea that asteroid 2012 DA14 will miss earth by just 15 minutes is lame. “The Science Guy” used this too. The asteroid and the earth orbits do not intersect at any point. If it came 15 minutes earlier or later, it would just be further away.
The idea DA14 and this asteroid that flew over the Chelyabinsk region are in any way related is also false. As others have pointed out, their orbital inclinations are almost 90 degrees apart. Different objects. Still an interesting coincidence. NASA seems so proud to be following DA14 but missed this entirely. Of course this one was a lot smaller but it shows that what we can detect and what can do damage are different.
Kasuha says:
February 15, 2013 at 6:14 am
Asking that we should forget about CAGW because of the meteorite problem is faulty logic. Should you stop washing your hands after using toilet because there’s also danger that an aircraft may crash into your house? Putting such two things as if one somehow disqualifies the other is just wrong. There sure are good reasons why we should stop destroying our economy but meteorites are not one.
As far as I know, the danger of something hitting the Earth from space is recognized for quite some time and there are teams of astronomers and automated equipment dedicated to that problem and on constant lookout for anything that can appear in Earth’s close proximity and is big enough to cause problems. Real problems, not just few thousand broken window panes such as in Russia now. Thousands of such objects were found and their trajectories are known with sufficient precision and that’s also the reason why this time it’s very well known what object is passing us, how far and especially that it poses no danger not just now but also in 20-some years when it will appear again. There’s not much more that can be done about it – this is exactly the ‘diminishing returns’ case, by putting twice the money into it, you get just a somewhat better result.
Yes, we may get hit by an asteroid. We are already doing our best to make sure it doesn’t happen without us knowing in advance and being able to at least try to do something about it.
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You may be right, but I’m not sure I’m convinced.
Look at it this way. I seem to remember reading some recent news article claiming that we needed to spend about 700 billion dollars to combat climate change. That’s some serious cheddar. What could our space program accomplish with that sort of funding? I mean, we wouldn’t be talking about incremental improvements to asteroid monitoring with that sort of money.
How much would it cost and how long would it take to get humanity a leg off this planet, anyway?
I’m not sure, but maybe if we’re going to spend grotesque amounts of money because we’re worried about the future, maybe our hundreds of billions would be better spent moving in that direction instead.
On tunguska event …
http://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&sl=it&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdaltonsminima.altervista.org%2F%3Fp%3D17869
http://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&sl=it&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdaltonsminima.altervista.org%2F%3Fp%3D17884
‘AT 9:30 am…’ Whose time zone? You should carefully state such a crucial piece of information by defining something like ZULU or EST etc. It’s either gone by me, or I’m still in the way.
eworrall1 says:
February 15, 2013 at 3:11 am
“I’m surprised the asteroid isn’t shattered by such a close approach to the Earth. ”
Roches limit applies to bodies that are held together solely by gravity (which is a very good approximation for large bodies). Such a small body as this however is likely to have some mechanical cohesion as well, so it should survive passing slightly inside the Roche limit.
mkelly, exactly my line of thinking:
1. Volcanic eruption of sufficient size to cause a “volcanic winter” of at least one or more year’s duration
2. Solar coronal mass ejection of sufficient size and correct configuration striking earth (causing power grid loss for more than a year)
3. Next glacial period of current Ice Age (end of current interglacial period)
4. Meteor or comet strike
5. World War III
6. Nuclear weapon detonation
7. Plague
8. Worldwide economic collapse
Are any of the above more likely to happen and to be of greater negative consequence than man-caused climate change?
For an imaginary danger we will waste billions and restrict individuals freedoms.
For a real problem, we will bury our heads in the sand, huddle at the bottom of this gravity well and deny the coming asteroid.
Ditto a year without summer, we will starve because there is no grain reserve anymore.
Both asteroid strike and loss of a growing season across the northern hemisphere, have happened before.
(Imaginary) CAGW, has not even been measured yet.
The use of CAGW as an excuse to not prepare, for real events is inexcusable.
My leaders are proving themselves to be insane, as they focus on the surreal and deny reality.
I think we’d rather affect them than effect them. 😉
I have a solution! We have a lottery, or lotteries if taken global, to pay for impact defense technology. We can call it the Power Bol-ide Lottery.
http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/epubs/bolide/introduction.html
I would be a darn decent choice to run it, btw. Reason being my hatred for corruption and as a bowling league secretary in the past I was never funny with the moneys. I even donated my pay so there could be a small trophy and payout for best split conversion and most strike ball gutter balls to make it more interesting.
Might even use any left over cash to pay down the national deficit!
on topic,
Does anyone have an idea of what happens to a meteorite when it hits an ice field?
What happened during the last ice age, to incoming meteorites hitting north america?
Do they explode because of the temperature differential?
Does the ice help dissipate the impact forces?
Ice is very different, would the meteorite have a better or worse chance of surviving intact?
Asteroid impact probability
A major asteroid impact is very highly probable – the only question is when. <a href= This problem is a far greater danger than any of the posited catastrophic anthropogenic climate threats.
For details see NASA’s The Probability of Collisions with Earth
Consequence of major asteroid impacts
For context, the Chicxulub impact likely caused the Permian extinction. A bolide of about 10 km (6 mi) in diameter caused the Chicxulub crater in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico more than 180 km (110 mi) in diameter.
Its impact was estimated at the equivalent of 100 teratons of TNT (4.2×1023 J). See:
Covey, C; et al. (1994). “Global climatic effects of atmospheric dust from an asteroid or comet impact on Earth”. Global and Planetary Change 9 (3–4): 263. Bibcode 1994GPC…..9..263C. doi:10.1016/0921-8181(94)90020-5.
Near Earth Objects Program
NASA has a “Near Earth Objects Program” to begin to identify objects that could fly near or potentially impact earth. However this is woefully underfunded compared to the very real dangers involved.
National Research Council Report, “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies”,
Contrast the billions of dollars spent on “climate” and the trillions proposed as new taxes.
We would be far better off reallocating > 85% of “greenhouse” or “climate change” research to this Near Earth Objects Program, and focus on civil defense ways to respond and possibly mitigate such impacts. Call your legislators and appeal to common sense.
Multiple asteroids/fragments
Comments by Roy Spencer and <a href= Anthony Watts that this Russian bolide is a fragment of 2012 DA14 make alot of sense.
See the Shoemaker Levy asteroid string that impacted Jupiter with 21 observed fragments. The Shoemaker-Levy asteroid impact on Jupiter in 1994 caused explosions equivalent to 6 trillion tons of TNT. Contrast the global nuclear arsenal of about 30,000 nuclear warheads only has the potential of 5 billion tons TNT.
Similar patterns of multiple impact craters have been identified on earth.
Candidates for multiple impact craters?: Popigai and Chicxulub as seen by the global high resolution gravitational field model EGM2008 J. Klokocnik et al., Solid Earth, 1, 71–83, 2010; http://www.solid-earth.net/1/71/2010/; doi:10.5194/se-1-71-2010
A >5 km diameter asteroid appears to have struck the Timor Sea with an associated impact cluster around the globe.
While asteroid mitigation may be a ways off, awareness will help in civil defense preparedness.
PS For those who understand such issues, see the prophesies that could be interpreted as asteroid impacts. Revelation 8:8-9 NIV
Matthew 24:29 NIV
Luke 21:26
Since we have seen Shoemaker – Levy “shake” Jupiter, that suggests we can expect to see another similarly visible impact.
This is in context of the encouragement: Luke 21:28 NIV
Kasuha says:
“Thousands of such objects were found and their trajectories are known with sufficient precision and that’s also the reason why this time it’s very well known what object is passing us, how far and especially that it poses no danger not just now but also in 20-some years when it will appear again. ”
Only if it is an asteroid – for a comet on an earth-intersecting orbit we would at the best get a few months warning. If it was coming from the other side of the Sun perhaps none at all. And we don’t know about all earth-crossing asteroids either, new ones are constantly being found.
Jimbo says: February 15, 2013 at 5:25 am “We could of course divert the huge funds … into space systems that can protect us from incoming? No?”
No. It is not possible to move that much momentum to such a distance or accurately enough. Certainly not possible with near term technology. It is a good exercise for an undergraduate physics class.
“In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss (or impact) and the greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order.” (from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management)
What is the priority of dealing with man-caused climate change in relation to other threats to life on earth, a few of which I enumerated in an earlier post?
Before directing a large chunk of the world’s resources at mitigating climate change (or any threat), don’t we at least deserve a little risk analysis? (Especially since those resources are to be taken by force through taxation and gov’t regulation)
eworrall1 and tty
The Shoemaker-Levy asteroid appears to have been broken up by Jupiter’s gravity for passing within its Roche limit.
Earth’s Roche limit is about 17,880 km (10,560 miles) for a solid body. The 17 km distance of of 2012 DA14 appears to be within that estimate of Earth’s Roche limit.
There’s a lot to be said for building an asteroid defence shield: new technolgy; jobs; new space drives; a reason to accept taxes; morale improvement as the whole world works to a common aim. We could call it The Cause…. Compare that to the AGW scare — fewer jobs, backward technological development, poverty, unemployment, all negative.
I have imagined our reaction to an incoming impactor in a short story called ‘Hittile’ in my ebook Lucifer Falling, with the asteroid defence chain degraded as politicians have spent the money on trivia and votes instead of matters that really matter.
quote
“Launching, launching. Non-essential personnel take cover. Non-essential…”
ROUGH MAGIC lurched as the Hoplite blasted free.
“Hoplite to Guardian, take cover. Hoplite slewing now. Firing in thirty seconds. Take cover.” The speakers took up the refrain. A controller grabbed Carradine. They fell together down some steps into a dingy hole below the seats. The woman’s face was wet with sweat.
“If she blows up we’ll get zapped. Three metres of lead here.” They held their breath.
Much later Carradine saw the holo of the launch, shot from Longstop. The Hoplite broke free of the wheel in an explosion of sparks and debris. She swung smoothly into position, then ignited her main engine. Bombs fired one after another, three a second, a searing glare that cut out all other vision, exploding just behind the huge buffer plate, enormous shock absorbers bouncing under the titanic strain of each impact. Hoplite stood on a pillar of flame and streaked away. Big as a supertanker, fifty years old, the hittile was up and running.
unquote
JF
It might be worth summarizing what we know about the frequency of large bolide impacts on Earth. We know about approximately 30 craters or crater groups younger than one million years. None of these is under the sea or in Antarctica or Greenland, so we can safely multiply by at least 5 to get the total number of impacts during this interval. Furthermore we have certainly not found every crater on land yet – new ones are being added every year, and many of the smaller craters have certainly been completely eroded away or covered by loose deposits, particularly if they occurred in an area that has since been covered by ice during an ice age.
It would seem that a very conservative guess for the number of crater-forming impacts during the last million years would be about 200, or one every 5000 years. Note that these would all be considerably larger than the Tunguska event, since they made it down to the surface without disintegrating.
The largest known impact during the last million years was Zhamanshin in Kazakhstan which is 19 km (12 miles) across. Barringer Crater in Arizona is the fifth largest of the 30.
Correction: The 2012 DA14 will pass about 17,220 miles away (not 17 km) so OUTSIDE the 10,560 mile Roche Limit.
“A problem that is bigger than global warming”
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Any real problem, even a very very very small one, is bigger than global warming.
If DA14 will be passing earth from south to north, at what longitude will it be more or less overhead at its closest approach?