UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2013: +0.51 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2013 is +0.51 deg. C, a substantial increase from December’s +0.20 deg. C. (click for large version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 13 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256
2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320
2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238
2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242
2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098
2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019
2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142
2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062
2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153
2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109
2012 11 +0.282 +0.299 +0.265 +0.172
2012 12 +0.206 +0.148 +0.264 +0.138
2013 1 +0.506 +0.553 +0.459 +0.375
Due to the rather large 1-month increase in the temperature anomaly, I double checked the computations, and found that multiple satellites (NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and Aqua) all saw approximately equal levels of warming versus a year ago (January, 2012), so for now I’m accepting the results as real. The most common cause of such warm spikes (when there is no El Nino to blame) is a temporary increase in convective heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. This would suggest that the global average sea surface temperature anomaly might have actually cooled in January, but I have not checked to see if that is the case.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies will be updated shortly are available on-line at http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/;
The processed temperature data (updated shortly) is available on-line at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
===============================================================
Anthony: Given Dr. Spencer’s obvious trepidations about the large jump, I have to wonder though, why this result from Dr. Ryan Maue at WeatherBell is so much different? Maue reports that the January 2013 NCEP 2 meter surface temperature reanalysis global temperature anomaly is +0.087°C compared to the same 1981-2010 base period that Spencer uses for UAH. The CONUS value for January is +0.006°C
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Lame-man here, yesterday I was eyeballing the SSTs from December to current and there appears to be cooling in the Indian Ocean, north pacific, south pacific, north atlantic and south atlantic.
December 13: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.12.17.2012.gif
Jan 31:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.1.31.2013.gif
A C Osborn says:
February 6, 2013 at 4:34 am
Nick Stokes says:
February 5, 2013 at 11:50 pm
The January hot places were NW N America, Central Asia and Australia
No mention of the much Colder than usual Northern & Southern Europe, the rest of Asia including Japan, N E N America, Mexico etc.
I would have thought that they would easily have balanced out any of the hot places.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are forgetting that the oceans are 70% of the earth surface and Bob Tisdales’s PRELIMINARY January 2013 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Update show the oceans cooled over the last five months. This means they were dumping heat to somewhere and the most likely place is into the atmosphere.
There is however a slight uptick showing in the weekly data.
Michael Sweet
This months data shows record heat for the state of the ENSO cycle. Could this record heat be caused by Global Warming? How hot will it get the next time there is an El Nino?
And in December, temperatures were at a 10 year low. It’s funny how global warming seems to have started on 1st January
At first I thought the arctic data looked so warm, something had to be wrong. But Spencer’s data jives with DMI data. It appears the arctic WAS that much above normal.
We really need to see some cooling as a result of the low solar activity, and soon, or we can kiss that theory goodbye….
Bob says:
February 6, 2013 at 4:31 am
Temperature anomalies resolved to 0,01° to 0.0001° and no error bars? Maybe the satellites will to 0.001°, but I’m always amazed by how well climate scientists measure things.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you want the error analysis or other info go to Dr. Spencer’s blog and ask him for it.
izen says:
February 6, 2013 at 8:20 am
…Wonderful! A new conspiracy theory, its not scientists like Spencer and Christy who are corrupting the measurements, it is all done by computer programmes… Skynet perhaps?…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not a ” conspiracy theory,” at all a PROVEN FACT if you had even bothered to look into it.
So yes there is hacking and in a big way. Even Oak Ridge Labs got hacked Apr 20, 2011 got hit.
And another time just recently.
ANONYMOUS Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Weather.gov Hacked
More than 48hrs on from the first attacks for 5, Nov [2012] the anonymous hacktivist are still pushing out leaked data from breached websites….
They have also released a very small dump of shall accounts on the weather.gov server
What do you want Reality to personally come knock on your door and bite you on the butt before you will actually look at the information and check it out?
The uptick in the UAH temp anomaly would be good news except:
1) it has propaganda value for alarmists who want to waste money on a non-problem
2) it’s probably temporary
3) January nights certainly didn’t feel any warmer here in Silicon Valley! 🙂
If the oceans cooled the heat had to go somewhere.
In many ways this is a boon to skeptics. At least my own view. No one saw this coming. This highlights the uncertainty of our atmospheric systems. Clearly, we can’t even predict next month’s temperatures … how can we predict them a 100 years from now?
Also keep in mind this is the mid-troposphere and not the surface. That may be why Maue’s numbers are different.
Doesn’t snow reflect a lot of energy ?
A Crooks says:
February 5, 2013 at 11:13 pm
This is exactly what I would have predicted (did predict) There is a peak every 3.75 years (roughly), this being the tenth peak since 1979 and should peak out about mid this year. It should turn around a head for a new low bottoming out around mid to late 2016. That low should be a deep one – every second trough (7.5 years apart) being extra low. Take a look at the running averages in the Climate4you site with their dip every 7.5 years.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/AllCompared%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979.gif
What it all means – I don’t know but I believe climate inertia is such that when you get 4 X 7.5 year- cycles in a row – you are probably going to get another one.
I have also noticed that troposphere and SST appear to move in approximately 8 year “jumps” and that we are about at the peak of the current jump. This is evident over all the instrumental record of about 40 years.
Reblogged this on Science!.
GHGs affect retained energy. Temperature is not energy. If the reading is proved correct, then I suspect it is ocean heat warming the lower tropo.
Well it’s about time. Laws of partial pressure were about to be violated. pH2O in the oceans has been climbing since 1997 while the flatlining atmosphere has doggedly refused to recieve the vapor. The wonder is why?
As a hobby, I run a linear regression comparing the 600 mb (AQUA channel 5) anomaly versus the UAH monthly anomaly. It uses the preceding 12 months of data. The correlation is over 0.95. The regression was indicating a January anomaly of 0.44, so I wasn’t surprised at the UAH monthly anomaly number. The first 4 days of February are similar to the month of January, as far as the anomaly goes.
The concept of surface and atmospheric anomalies going their separate ways is “interesting”, to quote Mr Spock of the original Star Trek series.
@izen Feb 6, 2013 8.20am
Refer to
@Gail Combs Feb6, 2013 8.30am.
A pointless reference for you I do realize.
I am not an experienced blogger. One thing I have noticed as a consumer however is the wonderful consistency shown by those of your generic type. The actual mechanisms do vary slightly according to situation – an admirable diversity of nervous responses totaling perhaps 7 or 8 , quite an achievement given the rudimentary character of the being so abundantly on display.
Ignoring the point at hand and refusing to respond to it, then seeking to introduce some extraneous issue often expressed in a highly coloured way – watch that you don’t exceed the capacity of your nervous system – is THE basic technique. I’m being overly generous here – feel gratified? – since of course a Pavlov’s Dog level of response cannot presume to the status of technique.
So, to help you in your development towards a being of a more advanced sort (in the ambitious speculation that your condition of being is not entirely organic) why don’t you attempt to focus your nervous system on what many on this site might describe as “answering the question”.
Your capacity to comprehend it is a fearsome existential proposition, however the mechanism for answering yes/no is not dissimilar to that on/off switch that is required in a primitive life form, compelled for example to move towards the light.
That part surely you can manage.
The bumps in temperatures from December to January were abnormal, but not extraordinary. The 0.3 C global rise tied for third largest month-to-month temperature rise in the past 34+ years. June-July 2009 was #1 at +0.35.
The +0.4 C increase in the Northern Hemisphere tied for the fourth largest one-month increase. Dec.-Jan. ’09-’10 was #1 at +0.46. In the NH, three of the top four one month jumps were between December and January.
You may find the following interesting. Hadcrut4 data is shown from October 1996 to March 1997. From November to January, the anomaly jumped by 0.293. Then from January to February, it dropped by 0.28.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2006.75/to:2007.25
Hi!
Have you seen the weather forecast for the next week? They say it’s gonna be rainy all week long, take a look here
Warmly, gerjaison