From Arizona State University where I really don’t think they understand that warmer winters aren’t necessarily a product of “climate change” but are mostly weather pattern and ocean cycle pattern driven. Then there’s the recent study about waste heat where the researchers found:
“…the extra heat given off by Northern Hemisphere urban areas causes as much as 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F) of warming in winter.”
So, color me unconvinced that “climate change” is the real driver here. It is more like a convenient scapegoat.
Study shows climate change could affect onset and severity of flu seasons
The American public can expect to add earlier and more severe flu seasons to the fallout from climate change, according to a research study published online Jan. 28 in PLOS Currents: Influenza.
A team of scientists led by Sherry Towers, research professor in the Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center at Arizona State University, studied waves of influenza and climate patterns in the U.S. from the 1997-1998 season to the present.
The team’s analysis, which used Centers for Disease Control data, indicates a pattern for both A and B strains: warm winters are usually followed by heavy flu seasons.
“It appears that fewer people contract influenza during warm winters, and this causes a major portion of the population to remain vulnerable into the next season, causing an early and strong emergence,” says Towers. “And when a flu season begins exceptionally early, much of the population has not had a chance to get vaccinated, potentially making that flu season even worse.”
The current flu season, which is still in high gear in parts of the nation, began early and fiercely. It followed a relatively light 2011 season, which saw the lowest peak of flu since tracking efforts went into effect, and coincided with the fourth warmest winter on record. According to previous studies, flu transmission decreases in warm or humid conditions.
If global warming continues, warm winters will become more common, and the impact of flu will likely be more heavily felt, say the study’s authors.
Mathematical epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell-Puente, an associate professor in the School of Human Evolution and Social Change in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, adds that the findings could inform preparedness efforts following mild winters: “The expedited manufacture and distribution of vaccines and aggressive vaccination programs could significantly diminish the severity of future influenza epidemics.”
This study was partially supported by the Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study, overseen by the National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center. Other team members are Rasheed Hameed, Matthew Jastrebski, Maryam Khan, Jonathan Meeks, Anuj Mubayi and George Harris of Northeastern Illinois University. The goal of the overarching study is to better grasp the character and trajectory of influenza in all its forms.
Wow. Talk about a nonsequitor. This is like saying “seatbelts don’t save lives because people who wear them feel more secure and so they drive more dangerously”
WISE, there’s always this alternative: http://www.halfbakery.com/idea/Steering-Wheel_20Spike and here’s a pic to go with it: http://www.carbibles.com/images/steering_spike.jpg
Happy driving!
– MJM, the bicyclist…
Hold on here!
I understand this is a bad flu season on the mid West coast of North America (Seattle-Victoria-Vancouver), yet it seems to have been an unremarkable winter (certainly had negligible snow, did have many dry days below freezing but I don’t think extreme). People may visit more when weather does not impede transportation, visiting spreads infection.
I understand that a key reason for this bad flu season is a strong strain of the flu. Fortunately it is in the vaccine cocktail. Perhaps different where Ron Sinclair lives.
Fortunately more nurses are getting vaccinated this year. (Idiot nurses union was against vaccination despite they being in contact with people whose reserves are low – the sick and elderly. Irresponsible!)
Anthony’s summary statement that fewer people get the flu in a warm winter so remain vulnerable into the next season must be founded on somehow getting natural resistance without getting sick. How can that be?
Or is it that people get complacent so don’t get vaccinated for the next season?
Factors for vaccines include the very long lead time from when the cocktail mix is decided to flu season (probably to allow for production), perhaps diminishing effectiveness of the vaccine with time after vaccination, mutation of the extant strains, and prior exposure to a train.
Good news is that efforts are increasing to:
– improve production of vaccine (getting away from eggs as host)
– add a fourth strain to the vaccine cocktail
– longer term broaden the vaccine further
If anyone’s interested, here’s the study. It doesn’t quite say what the press release says it says. Maybe that’s why they didn’t include a link.
http://currents.plos.org/influenza/article/climate-change-and-influenza-the-likelihood-of-early-and-severe-influenza-seasons-following-warmer-than-average-winters/
Meanwhile, Associated Press reports on studies showing that many east Asians have a genetic factor that may lead to more severe illness when they catch the flu. It’s a small study however, only 83 patients admitted to a hospital. Perversely, the problem is immune system over-reaction to the disease, causing organ damage or blocking airways. (Study published on a recent Tuesday in Nature Communications online edition.) OTOH, European genetics may be more susceptible to G-B syndrome from vaccination.
The study highlights a factor – severe illness resulting from influenza, pneumonia being a common result. I have not checked what the MB study that checked for difference from genetics covered in severity of illness, nor Inuit versus more southerly genetics. (IIRC the thrust of it was aboriginal versus European genetics, the only difference found was greater probability of crowded living conditions (dysfunctional tribal reserves) whether living in them or visiting them. I presume MB’s northern coastline has people with Inuit genetics, given the climate and marine mammals there, though people mix. While people think of Inuit/Eskimo as living in the far north like Alaska, the coastline and Arctic climate are relatively far south over by Greenland.)