Climate Craziness of the week: Chris Mooney, climate trolls, beluga whales, NRDC and all that

Here’s another one of those things I discovered when I was looking at something else, and serendipity kicked in. This comes from comment in Chris Mooney’s Twitter feed highlighted by Tom Nelson.

In another laughable Cool Hand Luke “you gotta get your mind right essay at Mother Jones, Mooney complains that “emotions come faster than the “rational” thoughts” when it comes  to climate blogs. He writes:

In the context of the psychological theory of motivated reasoning, this makes a great deal of sense. Based on pretty indisputable observations about how the brain works, the theory notes that people feel first, and think second. The emotions come faster than the “rational” thoughts—and also shape the retrieval of those thoughts from memory. Therefore, if reading insults activates one’s emotions, the “thinking” process may be more likely to be defensive in nature, and focused on preserving one’s identity and preexisting beliefs.

I about fell out of my chair laughing when I saw this ad image that went with his story: 

The advertisement for the National Resources Defense council has two images:

NRDC_YearEnd_Stop-BadGuys_DonateNow_300x250[1]

Photoshopped for emotional effect much? Here’s the other ad:

NRDC_YearEnd_Statistic-Belugas_DonateNow_300x250[1]

Research for the Beluga whale population reveals this from the NOAA fisheries office of protected resources:

Population Trends

In the U.S., there are 5 distinct stocks of beluga whales–all in Alaska:

  • Cook Inlet
  • Bristol Bay
  • Eastern Bering Sea
  • Eastern Chukchi Sea
  • Beaufort Sea

Of those, the Cook Inlet is the only endangered population. It is the most isolated stock; genetic samples suggest these whales have been isolated for several thousand years. The Cook Inlet stock has been severely reduced in numbers over the last several decades. NMFS estimates this population numbered as many as 1,300 in the late 1970s. The current estimate is about 325 beluga whales in the Cook Inlet.

“Of those, the Cook Inlet is the only endangered population.” That’s a pretty glaring lie of omission, don’t you think? Here’s a thought; maybe they just moved to a different location. After all, whales have been known to migrate vast distances. Their range (from NOAA) seems to indicate they aren’t static:

Beluga Whale range map

Beluga Whale Range Map

But wait there’s more! At the link the ad goes to at NRDC we see these images:

NRDC_whales_donate

On the link upper right, Stop Big Oil’s Attack on Whales campaign page » we are directed to a page which shows this image of the whale sans the stop sign:

NRDC_airgun

Note the background for the whale image and how the water and sand/gravel looks. Some image research reveals the image to be part of a series taken by photographer Flip Nicklin. On the presentation page at Animals and Earth, we see this image from the series along with the caption:

Whale_canada

And here’s the one NRDC used:

Beluga_flip_original

Since NRDC doesn’t credit Nicklin in their advertisements, I sure hope they have permission to use the photos.

So, not only does NRDC not tell the reader that only one population has any notable changes, that the 284 Belugas remain is a false number not representative of the whole global population, perhaps only the Cook Inlet population, the photo they use isn’t even FROM Cook Inlet.

Rational readers might find all that a bit incongruous, perhaps even false advertising.

In another hilarious twist of irony, there’s this ad on the story by Chris Mooney at Mother Jones.

MJ_Lies

I have to wonder if I give them $5 will they bar Chris Mooney from writing junk stories about emotions and science and take NRDC advertisements off their web site? Inquiring minds want to know.

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LamontT
January 10, 2013 11:20 am

Hi Anthony. I think flase should be false. Otherwise a very telling article.
REPLY: Fixed thx

Editor
January 10, 2013 11:21 am

I’ve seen a pod of beluga whales swim by on the Nushagak River in Alaska, they go upriver following the salmon. They are awesome creatures. The Cook Inlet group is a long ways south and a long ways in miles from the other belugas. It’s quite possibly always been a small isolated outlying group. I do love that the picture they use is not of the Cook Inlet whales, as usual they lie by indirection.
Finally, this has nothing to do at all with oil exploration or drilling.
w.

kim
January 10, 2013 11:21 am

‘Motivated reasoning’ is the latest projection from the Borg. I’m surprised it took MoonPie this long to get the memo.
============

January 10, 2013 11:22 am

A whale of a story for a whale of a prediction. Of course, since it’s a white whale it’s a white lie and therefore justified.
The question is how many Jonahs will swallow it?
The real issue being exploited here, beyond emotion, is the lack of awareness for most people of the extent of natural fluctuation in populations. An issue I discussed here:
http://drtimball.com/2011/83-percent-of-all-statistics-are-made-up-on-the-spot/

Resourceguy
January 10, 2013 11:24 am

I’m sure this is going to have a big impact on Putin’s push to explore oil resources in the Russian Arctic, which represernts most of the Arctic waters. Never mind, this is about making a buck from people that don’t know much to begin with and are not really interested in facts. It amounts to mining dollars from personality types.

Ed_B
January 10, 2013 11:24 am

Cook Inlet has been active, so maybe the belugas were in fact driven away?
“Apache has leased approximately 850,000 acres onshore, in tidal areas and offshore in the Cook Inlet Basin, an underexplored oil and gas producing region that was first developed in the 1950s and 1960s. Modern 3-D seismic will enable Apache to gain accurate imaging of the subsurface of the region and identify the most promising locations for exploratory drilling.
About 1.4 billion barrels of oil was discovered in Cook Inlet in the early stage of its development. After Prudhoe Bay was discovered, industry activity in the region dropped off substantially. While only a handful of fields have been discovered in Cook Inlet, the field size distribution strongly suggests at least another 1.3 to 1.4 billion barrels of oil yet to be discovered in the basin.
Apache’s Cook Inlet 3-D seismic program employs the industry’s first true cable-free wireless seismic technology in order to limit disturbance of communities, wildlife and the environment in the Cook Inlet area. Apache has worked with contractors, stakeholders and government agencies to minimize the impact on Cook Inlet Beluga whales and other marine mammals including killer whales, harbor porpoises, Steller sea lions and harbor seals.”

Robert M
January 10, 2013 11:30 am

I live in Alaska, and I can see part of Cook Inlet from my house. (Yes, I really can. :-)) The Endangered Beluga in question manage to strand themselves quite often chasing Hooligan (Smelt) in the Turnagain Arm section of Cook Inlet. Over the past 10 years or so, the sand (Mud) bars in Turnagain Arm have become quite extensive, much larger then in the past. I have wondered if the Good Friday quake changed the way the silt from glacial runoff plugs up the channels in the region. Turnagain Arm has one of the largest bore tides in the world, you would not believe the difference between low tide and high tide.
I think that what the government is seeing is a natural result of Turnagain Arm becoming choked with sediments due to subsidence from the 64 quake. The immediate region subsided around 10 feet. (Look up the city of Portage) This has caused the Beluga population to move to greener pastures as it were… In other words. The decline in LOCAL Beluga population is natural, and has nothing to do with human activities. (IMHO)

mwhite
January 10, 2013 11:37 am

Too much sea ice, a problem for belugas

mrmethane
January 10, 2013 11:41 am

NIcklin has been doing whale photos for many decades, including at least some published in a National Geographic series, probably dating back to the early 70s. I do recall that he was generally, um, in favor of “saving whales”.

January 10, 2013 11:47 am

Has anyone asked Mother Jones if they would ban Mooney? Just wondering if there are any Don Quixote’s around.

David Larsen
January 10, 2013 11:47 am

And the sun melted the last glaciar in North America from SE Wisconsin back above the arctic circle.

EW3
January 10, 2013 11:49 am

Sadly, no amount of detailing inaccuracies will make much of a difference with those that are emotionally attached to “saving the environment”. Somewhere along the way they developed a sense of guilt and need to counter it with mindless actions to make them feel better. (i.e. look at me, I’m saving the whales!)

analyticalsciencesblog
January 10, 2013 11:50 am

Actually, I totally agree with Mooney on motivated reasoning. It’s a pretty prevalent factor on all sides of the climate debate, but I think he’s also quite guilty of it. I know his irritatingly smug condescension and insulting characterizations of skeptics turn me off.
On a separate note, here’s a great quote from Richard Feynman that summarizes how I think about the AGW debate: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

January 10, 2013 11:51 am

My emotions came faster than the rational, dignified and politically correct part of my noggin, when I read this latest episode of dishonest, money-grubbing, pseudo-environmentalism. The emotion past so swiftly I wasn’t able to jot down the words, however it had something to do with white Moby Dicks.

Mac the Knife
January 10, 2013 11:53 am

Based on pretty indisputable observations about how the brain works, …..
Not only are the brain observations indisputable…. but they are visually appealing!
That’s a ‘pretty’ damning statement….
MtK

Gary
January 10, 2013 11:56 am

The howling irony is that Mooney describes himself so well in this simplistic essay. We all know case after case of CAGW true believers being unable to accept contrary evidence. Why so?
He neglects to think that some people reject “facts” because the source is suspicious, not because they are stubborn. Doesn’t matter which side you’re on. Mooney could present a correct fact such as the idea that emotional reaction takes precedence over reasoning and many of us here would reject it because of Mooney’s behavioral history that’s been well-documented by Anthony. Yet Daniel Kahneman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow) explains that this actually is what goes on in our minds. The point is that our thinking is more complex than Mooney asserts. Both proponents and skeptics would do well to let the emotional response subside so reasonable judgement can kick in.

arthur4563
January 10, 2013 11:58 am

Notice that first they claim there ain’t much wildlife still left,then they describe the oil testing
environment as “full of wildlife.” The fact that they do not claim any demonstrative harm means there probably is none. This is their way of panhandling. Instead of asking for a few bucks to help a down and out fellow, they have latched on to the idea of substituting poor, suffering animals
who are being driven to extinction, accompanied by an irrelevant picture of beached whales. Now, exactly how does one sue these people for misrepresentation and obtaining contributions by fraud and lies? Suggestion – send this writeup to Bill O’Reilly or the science guy over at Fox..

Alan Bates
January 10, 2013 12:04 pm

Reply to mwhite:
Save the belugas – shoot a polar bear …

Pathway
January 10, 2013 12:05 pm

A stranded whale by any other name is bear food.

Gene Selkov
January 10, 2013 12:07 pm

Another circumstance to note here is that it’s not that difficult to find a stranded beluga, compared to other whales. Belugas like to wallow in the sand and gravel and it is part of their hygiene. That is, by the way, why they are called belugas (“whities”) — they never have a complete set of skin layers on them. With a habit like this, I would rather wonder how they manage not to get stranded more often.

January 10, 2013 12:07 pm

So we only care about WHITE whales and WHITE bears. I guess whales of color will just have to fend for themselves. … Umm … I guess they already do.

Jimbo
January 10, 2013 12:15 pm

And while we are around the Arctic here is another threatened species laughing in the face of Arctic meltdown. It’s worse than we thought.

9 January, 2013
This afternoon I came across some startling information. There are now 22,600-32,000 polar bears worldwide, when tallied by nation. This is a big change from the 20,000-25,000 that has been touted as the global polar bear population since 2005.
According to a dynamic summary report on the home page of theIUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group website called State of the Polar Bear, there are now 22,600-32,000 polar bears worldwide, when tallied by nation.
http://www.thegwpf.org/polar-bears-booming/

From here:

Here are the numbers, by nation, listed in the State of the Polar Bear summary report (see map below):
Canada 13,300-17,500
USA 1,200-1,800
Russia 2,700-4,800
Norway 1,900-3,600
Greenland
(Denmark) 3,5000-4,400
Total 22,600-32,000
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/01/08/polar-bear-population-now-22600-32000-when-tallied-by-nation/

Doug Huffman
January 10, 2013 12:22 pm

Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow has his details on fast system-1 intuition and system-2 error-filled rational thought. Kahneman and Amos Tversky collaborated with N. N. Taleb on Black Swans and randomness.

lowercase fred
January 10, 2013 12:23 pm

Resourceguy 11:24: “It amounts to mining dollars from personality types.”
Exactly.

Jimbo
January 10, 2013 12:25 pm

Oh what the heck let’s go to the south pole and find another ‘threated’ species.

Apr. 13, 2012
A new study using satellite mapping technology reveals there are twice as many emperor penguins in Antarctica than previously thought.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120413145303.htm

An Emperor Penguin Population Estimate: The First Global, Synoptic Survey of a Species from Space. PLoS ONE, 2012; 7 (4): e33751
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0033751

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