IF NOT, THE PRESS AND PUBLIC WILL CERTAINLY GET THE WRONG IDEA
The Summary Information of the NOAA State of the Climate report reads with respect to extremes:
The U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was the second most extreme year on record for the nation. The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998. To date, 2012 has seen 11 disasters that have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses, to include Sandy, Isaac, and tornado outbreaks experienced in the Great Plains, Texas and Southeast/Ohio Valley.
This gives the reader the impression that landfalling tropical cyclones were a contributor to the high ranking. They were not. NOAA fails to note in the summary that the landfalling tropical cyclones were so low that NOAA lowered the ranking on its Climate Extremes Index by including them. That is, without landfalling tropical cyclones, 2012 would have ranked number one on Climate Extremes Index.
Using the drop-down menu on the NOAA Climate Extremes Index graph webpage, we can plot NOAA climate Extremes indicator graphs. Figure 1 is the NOAA Climate Extremes Index graph for landfalling tropical “systems”. 2012 was extremely low, far below average. I included this data through November in my Video: Drought, Hurricanes and Heat Waves – 2012 in Perspective. I was therefore surprised when NOAA included tropical cyclones in their 2012 State of the Climate summary.
Figure 1
If we plot the NOAA Climate Extremes Index for 2012 with landfalling tropical cyclones, Figure 2, 2012 does in fact rank number 2 behind 1998. This confirms NOAA’s statement in their summary.
Figure 2
But if we exclude landfalling tropical cyclones from the Climate Extremes Index, Figure 3, 2012 rises to a ranking of number 1.
Figure 3
Therefore, by including landfalling tropical cyclones in the Climate Extremes Index for 2012, NOAA lowered the ranking, but gives the public the impression that landfalling tropical cyclones contributed to the high ranking—when, in reality, tropical cyclones lowered the 2012 ranking.
Related articles
- NOAA SOTC release – December 2012 CONUS Tavg value missing? (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Update: ‘Hottest Year’ in U.S. Called into Question — 1930s Still Reign as Hottest? — Global Temps remain stagnant (climatedepot.com)
- More bad news for alarmists – no trend in global hurricane landfalls (wattsupwiththat.com)
Roger Lowenstein my newest and most current hero . . . “””Americans, with their strange belief in improvability, have always been prey to conmen selling Jesus or instant riches or enduring health. American finance itself—the author seems unaware—has a long tradition of boosterism.”””
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-11/book-review-pound-foolish-by-helaine-olen
Says it best, for me . . . . I sure would like to see him write on the subject and the AGW, Al Gore issue.
Don’t mean to plug, but I recently read When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein it definitely confirmed what many have called “silly notions”.
Thank you Mr.Teasdale–that really did help. I, like most of America, had a very different interpretation of “Extreme Climate.” My biggest problem and that of most of America is that regular folk describe “Extreme Weather” or “Extreme Climate” as more tornados, floods, hurricanes, and drought–they do not consider it days of “much below noraml and much above normal” of anything. I had this dicussion with my Mom and brohter, both who believe the AGW meme–and they were shocked that tornadoes were low, no major huricanes making land fall in 7 years, floods average gobally–we looked up the data together and I literally shocked them with the facts. My Mom asked, “why do they keep saying it was so extreme?”
So the answer to the question posed in your article is, “Whether they intend to mislead or not–it is terribly misleading becasue most people think it is the floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and such…
And what is “much below normal?” That’s about as unscientific as one can get. What kind of data is that?
Frank K. says: I really don’t understand the concept of a “Climate Extreme”. What does that mean? The weather events over a year’s time is NOT climate! Remember the warmist’s meme of “Weather != Climate”? If there was a period of thirty years where tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, floods etc. were abnormal, then we can call that period a “Climate Extreme”
Yes! thanks for that–my point exactly.
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Silver Ralph says: And building wooden shacks instead of houses. I have said it before, but even the Three Little Pigs realised that houses should be made of brick or concrete. Come on, USA, if the rest of the world can afford ‘stone’ housing, why are you still using sticks?
You obviously don’t understand earthquakes–only wood stands and earthquake proof steel. My Mom had 4 houses in the great Landers earthquake–epicenter just a few hundred yards from her place–the trailers and wood stood and the block and rock came falling down!
Thanks Gail–I only have dial up now, but that should change in the next few months…I’ll catch Mr.Teasdale’s videos when I get the bandwith.
This makes me very mad. It is illogical. $1B in NYC is not much. The people drive expensive cars, the real estate is expensive. That’s like 100 penthouses. That city plus London are the financial capitals of the world. Money does not go far. However $1B in Louisiana goes much farther. That’s like 100,000 trailers. ($10k each)
Strange.
When performed regionally, only Ohio Valley and Southwest finished first for 2012.
Northeast = 6th or 7th
UpperMidwest = 4th
Southeast = 11th
South = 2nd
Northern Rockies and Plains = 3rd
West = 15th
Northwest = 24th