UPDATE: NOAA plans to release SOTC at 1PM EST today. Look for updates soon and a special report on today’s release. The map below will automatically update when we have the new December COOP Tavg value, probably later today. I’ll have another post on the differences between the CRN and COOP in the near future. – Anthony
Pursuant to our previous story showing issues with diverging data and claims over time, NCDC has updated the Climate Reference Network Data for December 2012. I’m still waiting on the NCDC State of the Climate report to come in with their number, and I’ll update the graphic (in yellow) when it is available.
Being a state of the art system, it is well sited, and requires no adjustments and the data is well spatially distributed by design so that it is representative of the CONUS. Here’s the current plot (click to enlarge):
Each (small) number in blue represents one of the NCDC operated U.S. Climate Reference Network stations in the CONUS that we use. Here’s the data reports for December and the entire year:
==========================================================
2012 Average Monthly Reports – text files
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201201.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201202.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201203.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201204.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201205.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201206.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201207.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201208.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201209.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201210.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201211.txt
http://crn.intelliweather.net/imagery/crn/crn_temps_national_monthly_average_report_201212.txt
Source for all data: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/uscrn/products/monthly01/
==========================================================
The December report looks like this:
==========================================================
TOTALS Totals for T_MONTHLY_MEAN (column 8) = 296.7
Totals for T_MONTHLY_AVG (column 9) = 302.4
Total Number of CRN Stations Included in this Report = 116 out of 117 CONUS stations possible (stations with missing data excluded – see below)
AVERAGING CALCULATIONS
Average of T_MONTHLY_MEAN Totals = 296.7 / 116 = 2.55775862068965 or 2.6° C Average of T_MONTHLY_AVG Totals = 302.4 / 116 = 2.60689655172414 or 2.6° C Average of T_MONTHLY_MEAN Totals in Fahrenheit = (2.55775862068965 * 1.8) + 32 = 36.6039655172414 or 36.6° F
Average of T_MONTHLY_AVG Totals in Fahrenheit = (2.60689655172414 * 1.8) + 32 = 36.6924137931034 or 36.7° F
SUMMARY National Average of Monthly Mean Temperatures = 2.6° C or 36.6° F National Average of Monthly Average Temperatures = 2.6° C or 36.7° F
EXCLUDED STATIONS The following stations reported no data (-9999.0) for either T_MONTHLY_MEAN or T_MONTHLY_AVG and were not used:
CRNM0101-PA_Avondale_2_N.txt
================================================================
From the NCDC provided FTP data files we can calculate a yearly CONUS Tavg, which has never been done before by NCDC to my knowledge. Odd that is falls to somebody outside of the organization don’t you think?
Climate Reference Network Data for 2012
| Month | Tavg | |
| 1 | 36.8 | |
| 2 | 38.1 | |
| 3 | 50.6 | |
| 4 | 54.8 | |
| 5 | 63.3 | |
| 6 | 70.8 | |
| 7 | 75.6 | |
| 8 | 72.9 | |
| 9 | 65.6 | |
| 10 | 53.9 | |
| 11 | 43.9 | |
| 12 | 36.7 | |
| Sum | 663 | |
| /12 | 55.25 |
Therefore, from this data, the Average Annual Temperature for the Contiguous United States for 2012 is 55.25°F
Note also the value from the CRN from July 2012, 75.6°F far lower than what NCDC reported in the SOTC of 77.6°F and later in the database of 76.93°F as discussed here.
Makes you wonder why NCDC never mentions their new state of the art, well sited climate monitoring network in those press releases, doesn’t it? The CRN has been fully operational since late 2008, and we never here a peep about it in SOTC. Maybe they don’t wish to report adverse results.
I look forward to seeing what NCDC comes up with for the Cooperative Observer Network (COOP) in their “preliminary” State of the Climate Report for Dec 2012 and the year, and what the final number will be in 1-2 months when all the data from the COOP network comes in.
I’ll have more on this in the near future. I’ll be offline for the rest of the day traveling.
UPDATE: 10:30PM PST, Climatebeagle and others have been puzzled over the 117 stations used, and can’t reconcile with the larger list. Here’s the logic:
Some stations, such as the Oak Ridge, TN and Sterling, VA were removed due to them not reporting regularly or at all (they are test sites). The one CRN station in Egbert, Ontario Canada is not part of the CONUS, and is removed also. None of the stations in Alaska are used as they are also not part of the CONUS.
Here is the list: conus_stations_master_list_1-8-13 (PDF)
UPDATE2: 9:30AM PST, 1/8 Reader Lance Wallace noted a mistake, which has to do with versioning control on our end. One CRN station in Egbert Ontario was inadvertently included in the monthly code, where it was not in the daily code we run. We’ll rerun it all and update. I’m thankful for the many eyes of WUWT readers – Anthony
and with a comma in front, tooo
EM
“@Mosher:
So can you point me at where GIStemp does their lapse rate adjustment?
Didn’t the folks at NCDC say it doesn’t matter if stations come and go? Where is their lapse rate adjustment?
###########################
EM
1. Remember the concern about the loss of thermometers.. What was your concern? Loss of high altititude thermometers. Why? because they tend to be colder.
2. When you work in ABSOLUTE temperature then you have to take care to adjust in lapse rate. This is why, GISS works with anomalies
Lets do a little example
We are going to average two stations. 1 station is at sea level. the other station is at
1km. above it.
Ready. We will do 10 years of data. station A is at sea level and station B is at 1000 meters
A) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
B) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
See. Now we made that all simple because all the data is there and its always there. So we can can just sum every month and divide by 2 and presto.. the average is 3.
Now lets have a data drop out.
A) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
B) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
And we average.. and Opps! the average goes from 3C to 6C what the hell!
So. You have two options.
Option 1. Use anomalies
Option 2. Adjust for lapse rate.
Since Giss uses Anomalies they dont have to and should not correct for lapse rate.
So, if you are working in ABSOLUTE temperature and trying to COMPARE your dataset to another dataset in ABSOLUTE temperature, then you must check for altitude differences or you can just adjust for lapse rate. Its easy. You can even do it empricially.
Mosher, NCDC doesn’t adjust for lapse rate in their CONUS avg. used in SOTC. Prove they do and you’ll have a point.
E.M.Smith says:
January 7, 2013 at 12:08 pm (Edit)
A man with a watch knows what time it is.
A man with two watches is never sure….
So at a minimum this says that “station selection” has a 2 F variation in it. So much for the assertion that “station dropout” doesn’t matter…
############
EM its already been proven that station drop out doesnt matter, cause we put the stations back in and the answer didnt change. Anomalies. Lovely thing.
As others have stated, crosspatch points out what needs to be stressed.
Any point averages need to be justified. Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Kansas and Florida have independent climates that are not related to each other. This is basic science. There is no physical meaning to averaging tropical data with polar data.
There may be some justification for averages, but not in this case.
Also, there is danger in averaging time data. Why are you averaging July with January? Does averaging July with January have physical meaning?
I’ve plotted monthly temperatures of 15 CRN sites with 10 full years of data. None show any significant trend in temperature since those stations began operating.
The best climate site that addresses the AGW issue is http://www.surfacestations.org/
When the average reader sees photos of thermometers next to air conditioners, they understand what is going on.
Another important story to me is what GISS is doing to their “data” on a monthly basis.
Keep up the good work.
Steven Mosher says:
“Since Giss uses Anomalies they dont have to and should not correct for lapse rate… its already been proven that station drop out doesnt matter, cause we put the stations back in and the answer didnt change. Anomalies. Lovely thing.”
But, some things DO change at GISS:
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/giss/hansen-giss-1940-1980.gif
Anthony, your headline reads:
As your PR adviser, might I suggest that this headline will likely not get much attention with the MSN.
Rather, you should consider:
See how much better that is?
climatebeagle says:
January 7, 2013 at 11:17 am (Edit)
On the hourly numbers I calculated an USCRN 2012 yearly average of 12.1°C or 53.7°F, but I think my list of USCRN stations is different since I have 124. Probably at least because I’m using all the USCRN stations, thus not the same as CONUS.
######################
there are some additional stations beyond those that anthony talks about, these are regional networks. Also excellent stations. To get the correct CRN you need to download the metadata
Also, Folks should realize that not all of the CRN are actually commissioned and operational, some are experimental. This status is in a different file that I have around her somewhere. Last I looked I had a count of around 108 that were actually commissioned and non experimental. Then of course you should drop those that are actually in built up areas or have concrete around them ( 30 meter NLCD data can help you spot that in a jiffy )
EM
““Why? because the airports happen to be at higher colder elevations.”
Must not fly much… FYI Airports are built where there is a lot of flat land, typically. As often as possible down in the valley floors or even next to water (so a long approach can be made with a low flat surface). Examples? SFO approach over the bay. Moffett Field approach over the bay. SJC San Jose approach over the bay. Not one of them up in the surrounding hills. ORD Chicago on flat land (as is all of Chicago near the lake). Denver down on the flatter part down slope from downtown. Etc. etc. etc.”
#################
Sorry I wasnt clear.
Here is the example I am thinking of.
You have a CRN station at 5 meters high, and 10 km away you have an airport at
200meters above sea level
Guess what?
With a lapse rate of 6.5C per 1000 meters how much cooler is a airport at 200 meters versus a station at sea level?
get it.
Lapse rate, it will get you every time if you are not careful. Perhaps a few examples of prefect stations that are warmer than their neighbors simply because they differ in altitude by 200 or 300 meters. 6.5C per 1000 meters in altitude. Guess you dont fly much
Still having trouble resolving the station count.
The USCRN list here has 133 stations.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/isis/stationlist.htm?networkid=1
Three do not appear in the hourly data for 2012:
TN Oakridge 0 N
SA TIKSI 4 N
VA Sterling 0 N
Thus 130 stations in the USCRN that reported hourly data in 2012:
For CONUS we can exclude:
AK – 12 stations
HI – 2 stations
ON – 1 station
Leaving: 115.
But Anthony says he is using 117 USCRN CONUS stations, with one skipped for missing data.
TN Oakridge,SA TIKSI and VA Sterling also seem to be missing from the monthly data.
So 115 vs. 117?
Here’s the list I manually created from the USCRN list and mapping file names to the WBANNO numbers (thus it has 130, excluding TN Oakridge,SA TIKSI and VA Sterling) :
(Mods feel free to remove this if it’s too long)
AK_Barrow_4_ENE,27516,USCRN
AK_Fairbanks_11_NE,26494,USCRN
AK_Gustavus_2_NE,25380,USCRN
AK_Kenai_29_ENE,26563,USCRN
AK_King_Salmon_42_SE,25522,USCRN
AK_Metlakatla_6_S,25381,USCRN
AK_Port_Alsworth_1_SW,26562,USCRN
AK_Red_Dog_Mine_3_SSW,26655,USCRN
AK_Sand_Point_1_ENE,25630,USCRN
AK_Sitka_1_NE,25379,USCRN
AK_St._Paul_4_NE,25711,USCRN
AK_Tok_70_SE,96404,USCRN
AL_Fairhope_3_NE,63869,USCRN
AL_Gadsden_19_N,63857,USCRN
AL_Selma_13_WNW,63858,USCRN
AR_Batesville_8_WNW,23904,USCRN
AZ_Elgin_5_S,53132,USCRN
AZ_Tucson_11_W,53131,USCRN
AZ_Williams_35_NNW,53155,USCRN
AZ_Yuma_27_ENE,53154,USCRN
CA_Bodega_6_WSW,93245,USCRN
CA_Fallbrook_5_NE,53151,USCRN
CA_Merced_23_WSW,93243,USCRN
CA_Redding_12_WNW,04222,USCRN
CA_Santa_Barbara_11_W,53152,USCRN
CA_Stovepipe_Wells_1_SW,53139,USCRN
CA_Yosemite_Village_12_W,53150,USCRN
CO_Boulder_14_W,94075,USCRN
CO_Cortez_8_SE,03061,USCRN
CO_Dinosaur_2_E,94082,USCRN
CO_La_Junta_17_WSW,03063,USCRN
CO_Montrose_11_ENE,03060,USCRN
CO_Nunn_7_NNE,94074,USCRN
FL_Everglades_City_5_NE,92826,USCRN
FL_Sebring_23_SSE,92827,USCRN
FL_Titusville_7_E,92821,USCRN
GA_Brunswick_23_S,63856,USCRN
GA_Newton_11_SW,63829,USCRN
GA_Newton_8_W,63828,USCRN
GA_Watkinsville_5_SSE,63850,USCRN
HI_Hilo_5_S,21515,USCRN
HI_Mauna_Loa_5_NNE,21514,USCRN
IA_Des_Moines_17_E,54902,USCRN
ID_Arco_17_SW,04126,USCRN
ID_Murphy_10_W,04127,USCRN
IL_Champaign_9_SW,54808,USCRN
IL_Shabbona_5_NNE,54811,USCRN
IN_Bedford_5_WNW,63898,USCRN
KS_Manhattan_6_SSW,53974,USCRN
KS_Oakley_19_SSW,03067,USCRN
KY_Bowling_Green_21_NNE,63849,USCRN
KY_Versailles_3_NNW,63838,USCRN
LA_Lafayette_13_SE,53960,USCRN
LA_Monroe_26_N,53961,USCRN
ME_Limestone_4_NNW,94645,USCRN
ME_Old_Town_2_W,94644,USCRN
MI_Chatham_1_SE,54810,USCRN
MI_Gaylord_9_SSW,54854,USCRN
MN_Goodridge_12_NNW,04994,USCRN
MN_Sandstone_6_W,54932,USCRN
MO_Chillicothe_22_ENE,13301,USCRN
MO_Joplin_24_N,23908,USCRN
MO_Salem_10_W,23909,USCRN
MS_Holly_Springs_4_N,23803,USCRN
MS_Newton_5_ENE,63831,USCRN
MT_Dillon_18_WSW,04137,USCRN
MT_Lewistown_42_WSW,04140,USCRN
MT_St._Mary_1_SSW,04130,USCRN
MT_Wolf_Point_29_ENE,94060,USCRN
MT_Wolf_Point_34_NE,94059,USCRN
NC_Asheville_13_S,53878,USCRN
NC_Asheville_8_SSW,53877,USCRN
NC_Durham_11_W,03758,USCRN
ND_Jamestown_38_WSW,54937,USCRN
ND_Medora_7_E,94080,USCRN
ND_Northgate_5_ESE,94084,USCRN
NE_Harrison_20_SSE,94077,USCRN
NE_Lincoln_11_SW,94996,USCRN
NE_Lincoln_8_ENE,94995,USCRN
NE_Whitman_5_ENE,94079,USCRN
NH_Durham_2_N,54794,USCRN
NH_Durham_2_SSW,54795,USCRN
NM_Las_Cruces_20_N,03074,USCRN
NM_Los_Alamos_13_W,03062,USCRN
NM_Socorro_20_N,03048,USCRN
NV_Baker_5_W,53138,USCRN
NV_Denio_52_WSW,04139,USCRN
NV_Mercury_3_SSW,53136,USCRN
NY_Ithaca_13_E,64758,USCRN
NY_Millbrook_3_W,64756,USCRN
OH_Coshocton_8_NNE,54851,USCRN
OK_Goodwell_2_E,03055,USCRN
OK_Goodwell_2_SE,53182,USCRN
OK_Stillwater_2_W,53926,USCRN
OK_Stillwater_5_WNW,53927,USCRN
ON_Egbert_1_W,64757,USCRN
OR_Coos_Bay_8_SW,04141,USCRN
OR_Corvallis_10_SSW,04236,USCRN
OR_John_Day_35_WNW,04125,USCRN
OR_Riley_10_WSW,04128,USCRN
PA_Avondale_2_N,03761,USCRN
RI_Kingston_1_NW,54796,USCRN
RI_Kingston_1_W,54797,USCRN
SC_Blackville_3_W,63826,USCRN
SC_McClellanville_7_NE,03728,USCRN
SD_Aberdeen_35_WNW,54933,USCRN
SD_Buffalo_13_ESE,94081,USCRN
SD_Pierre_24_S,94085,USCRN
SD_Sioux_Falls_14_NNE,04990,USCRN
TN_Crossville_7_NW,63855,USCRN
TX_Austin_33_NW,23907,USCRN
TX_Bronte_11_NNE,03072,USCRN
TX_Edinburg_17_NNE,12987,USCRN
TX_Monahans_6_ENE,03047,USCRN
TX_Muleshoe_19_S,03054,USCRN
TX_Palestine_6_WNW,53968,USCRN
TX_Panther_Junction_2_N,22016,USCRN
TX_Port_Aransas_32_NNE,23906,USCRN
UT_Brigham_City_28_WNW,04138,USCRN
UT_Torrey_7_E,53149,USCRN
VA_Cape_Charles_5_ENE,03739,USCRN
VA_Charlottesville_2_SSE,03759,USCRN
WA_Darrington_21_NNE,04223,USCRN
WA_Quinault_4_NE,04237,USCRN
WA_Spokane_17_SSW,04136,USCRN
WI_Necedah_5_WNW,54903,USCRN
WV_Elkins_21_ENE,03733,USCRN
WY_Lander_11_SSE,94078,USCRN
WY_Moose_1_NNE,04131,USCRN
WY_Sundance_8_NNW,94088,USCRN
climate beagle if you’ll just be patient I will be able to get to a hotel and get you this information. you could also simply look at the text files I presented in the blog post and use those numbers for the station ids
D Boehm Stealey says: January 7, 2013 at 8:01 pm
=================
Has Hansen ever been called to account concerning this apparent fabrication?
mpainter,
Not that I know of. Nor for his regular lawbreaking, nor for his using his GISS position for politics, etc.
BTW, there are more examples of GISS “adjusting” the temperature record. Their adjustments take one of two forms: either lowering past temperatures in order to show more rapid warming, or adjusting current temperatures upward. The result is always more alarming than reality.
Does this “CONUS Average temperature” have any real physical meaning?
Well, after all is said and done, at least we’ve provided Tamino with his next post.
So we might as well wait for the world’s-best statistician to make his comments.
Problem is, he won’t post his results here, and you won’t be allowed to comment there.
D Boehm, I’ve seen the same trend and agree fully on your GISS observations. However, recently I’ve found one station (Yakutat) where old temp data have been increased, resulting in a decadal cooling trend when compared to data I saved six months ago.
I still have the six month old Yakutat text file with that data, along with about a dozen other key stations that I’ve been monitoring for years. So far, four Antarctic stations (Amundsend-Scott, Vostok, Halley and Davis) have not been altered. All show zero temp changes since their data began in the 1950s.
As for past temp changes, I forgot to add this link,
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/
There are others who are monitoring what NOAA is doing to historical “data”
Year after year, my admiration for Anthony and his dedication to the science of meteorology and climate continues to grow. The world owes him a debt of gratitude for his efforts to promote understanding of these complicated issues.
I expect a warm US and a cool world for December. Most of December was very warm in the US plains and east and they didn’t get a cold blast until late in the month. They will be getting another cold blast in the last two weeks of January, too. This is one reason why I tend to like seasonal averages rather than monthly averages. You can have an unusually cold 4 week period during a season that is split between two different months. The seasonal average might be a more accurate measure of climate.
bw says: January 7, 2013 at 9:08 pm
As for past temp changes, I forgot to add this link,
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/
There are others who are monitoring what NOAA is doing to historical “data”
========================
The blink graph was damning. I think it is appropriate to draw conclusions about this temperature record business. I am glad to see that we have a network of individuals who are dedicated to keeping up with all of this. Some day, I feel, they will be called to give testimony.
Stephen Mosher;
Now lets have a data drop out.
A) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
B) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
And we average.. and Opps! the average goes from 3C to 6C what the hell!
So. You have two options.
Option 1. Use anomalies
Option 2. Adjust for lapse rate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
For starters neither temperature nor anomalies vary directly with w/m2. Averaging them results in under representing changes in warm areas and over representing them in cold areas. But put aside the completely absurd notion of averaging things that ought not be averaged in the first place, and let’s consider your approach. There are more options than the ones you have listed.
If the above example were done with some dose of reality, there would be thousands of data series, not two. The first step would be to simply drop incomplete data series out altogether, and only average the series that are complete. I know, I know, we don’t have diddly squat for weather station data that is complete from one end of the record to the other. So what to do? The answer is to follow a process similar to what Leif Svalgaard described for normalizing sun spot counts. You take series that overlap, and determine which ones vary together in the overlap period so you can apply a compensation factor to let series B stand in for series A after the data from A ends. Complicated? Not really. Just a gawd awful number of calculations which is why we invented computers. I can think of some problems with this approach too, and I can also think of other approaches. But my main point is that the options aren’t limited to the two you use.
Anthony Watts says:
January 7, 2013 at 8:18 pm
Hi Anthony – I know I’m violating my New Year’s resolution, but I have to address the silly notion that someone has asserted here that you need to correct temperatures for lapse rate before averaging. The answer is, of course, NO! Temperatures are being measured at climate stations a specified height above the Earth’s surface, so the Earth’s surface-averaged temperature will not care what altitude it’s at. Temperature is temperature. You can carry out a spatial average on the absolute temperatures and they can be just as meaningful as any other (arbitrary) averaging scheme (perhaps more meaningful). To put it another way, if it’s 50 degrees F in Denver, CO, will I feel colder/warmer in Denver than I would if I were exposed to 50 degree air in Charleston, SC? Of course not! What WILL change between the two locations is the air density simply due to the change in static air pressure with altitude.
Furphy … hmmm … okay
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furphy
@Climate Beagle
The link if I did it right should lead you to an Excel file in Dropbox with a list of 125 sites in the USCRN network. The list includes latlong and altitude data. There are 118 locations, but 5 locations have 2 associated sites and two locations have 3 sites. One location is in Canada (Ontario) leaving 117 in the “US” part of the USCRN. I count 8 locations in Alaska (not your 12) and two in Hawaii, leaving 107 separate locations and 114 sites in CONUS. I never ran across TN Oak Ridge or VA Sterling in this dataset. What the heck is SA TIKSI? Somewhere in Russia? SA is not a US state abbreviation but might be the Sakha Republic in Siberia.
The data are from a monthly file created by NOAA back in about August of this year, so should be up to date.
The mean values I provided in my table earlier were for the 125 sites in the USCRN network. This included the 8 sites in Alaska, the one in Canada, and the two in Hawaii, so no doubt were a bit lower than one would get for a continental US average.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rjx767suajwqr41/CRN%20list%20of%20locations%20and%20sites.xlsx
Updated main body post with list of 117 CRN sites used and explanation for exclusions
Steven Mosher says:
January 7, 2013 at 1:09 pm
Problem is you cant compare the averages without correcting for altitude differences.
———————————————————————————————
Are you saying that the continent is rising and subsiding by 100M frequently? Or do you want to adjust the readings so they are all the same?
You could just use one thermometer for the whole USA to acheive that end. Temps for any location could be created by adjustments. Good for research grants and eliminates the need to go outdoors.
not really sarc/
Anthony
Your updated list includes the two Hawaii stations