From the University of Tennessee at Knoxville this gives a whole new meaning to “release the Kraken”.
University of Tennessee study predicts extreme climate in Eastern US
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter
From extreme drought to super storms, many wonder what the future holds for the climate of the eastern United States. A study conducted by researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, does away with the guessing.
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter.
Joshua Fu, a civil and environmental engineering professor, and Yang Gao, a graduate research assistant, developed precise scales of cities which act as a climate crystal ball seeing high resolution climate changes almost 50 years into the future.
The study found that heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States and, that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation.
The findings are published in the Nov. 6 edition of Environmental Research Letters.
Harnessing the supercomputing power of UT’s Kraken and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) Jaguar (now Titan, the fastest in the world), the researchers combined high-resolution topography, land use information and climate modeling. Then they used dynamical downscaling to develop their climate model results. Dynamical downscaling allowed the researchers to develop climate scales as small as four square kilometers.
“Instead of studying regions, which is not useful when examining extreme weather, dynamical downscaling allows us to study small areas such as cities with a fine resolution,” said Fu, who is also a professor within the UT-ORNL Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education (CIRE).
The researchers evaluated extreme events along with daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation. For the 23 states east of the Mississippi River, they analyzed the present-day climate from 2001 to 2004 and predicted the future climate from 2057 to 2059. This is the first study to predict heat waves for the top 20 cities in the eastern U.S. For example, Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius.
In comparing present climate to future, the researchers found that heat waves will become more severe throughout the eastern part of the nation. The Northeast and eastern Midwest will experience a greater increase in heat waves than the Southeast, which will almost equalize the temperatures between the future North and current South.
“Currently, the mean heat wave duration is about four days in the Northeast and eastern Midwest and five days in the Southeast,” said Fu. “By the end of the 2050s, the Northeast and eastern Midwest will be gaining on the Southeast by increasing two days.”
In addition, the Northeast and eastern Midwest are likely to suffer from steeper increases in the severity of heat waves.
“While the Southeast has the highest intensity in heat waves, the northeast is likely to experience the highest increase,” said Fu. “We are looking at temperature increases of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, with New York experiencing the highest hike.”
Both the Northeast and Southeast will experience an increase of precipitation of 35 percent or more. Most coastal states will see the greatest increase, of about 150 millimeters a year. Taking into consideration heat waves and extreme precipitation, the Northeast shows the largest increases in precipitation. This suggests a greater risk of flooding.
“It is important that the nation take actions to mitigate the impact of climate change in the next several decades,” said Fu. “These changes not only cost money—about a billion a year in the U.S.—but they also cost lives.”
Fu and Gao collaborated with researchers at Emory University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. They received assistance from the National Center for Computational Sciences, the UT-ORNL Joint Institute for Computational Sciences and UT’s National Institute for Computational Sciences.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention, that when they get this supercomputer online at Oak Ridge, it will take even more guesswork out of climate and weather prediction. – Anthony
Two words come to mind – imperious asses. What have they done to science? There was once a time scientists would tell us what they know and it was tempered in uncertainty. Now they tell us what they think and it is intemperate sophistry. They have fooled only themselves. I would give a nut for another Richard Feynman to come into the world.
Am I mistaken, or are they trying to create a finer grid of predictions than presently exist for data?
Somewhere in an alternative universe Douglas Adams is splitting his sides as he realises that even his masterpiece has not envisaged the full farcicality of reality.
Majikthise, Vroomfondel, Loonquawl and Phouchg have just been trumped by FU (shurely a spoof, rude as well) and Gao (say that aloud).
So: the authors will be drawing their pension or already in a box by the time anyone knows if what they say is revolutionary; misguided or pure bullshit.
There’s nothing wrong with people setting up predictions now.
There’s everything wrong in basing policy on predictions which won’t be validated or refuted for another 40 years.
roncram:
At December 17, 2012 at 2:45 pm you ask
No, because there is no possibility that anybody could defend this paper anywhere except on the stage of a Comedy Theatre.
Richard
John West:
Your post at addressed to Stephen Pruett at December 17, 2012 at 8:27 pm asks
Of course, “the mere production of fancy projections” IS “the bar for success in” so –called ‘climate science’. This is demonstrated by each and every IPCC Working Group 1 Report. And no climate model has any demonstrated predictive skill.
Richard
Steve Schaper says:
December 17, 2012 at 11:35 pm
“Am I mistaken, or are they trying to create a finer grid of predictions than presently exist for data?”
they take the state in the coarse grid from a GCM at moment x in time and initialize a finer model with it that they let then run with finer temporal and spatial resolution.
One of the climate “scientists” once called the scenarios of the GCMs not predictions, but “possible stories”; so the models are a way of telling a story about the future. In this regard, Fu and Gao take an overall story and tell an episode of it filled in with more invented detail (invented because the state information of the finer model is of course not taken from any measurement or scientific process but just a “possible story” within a larger “possible story”).
Like blowing up “The Hobbit” into three feature films. As expected, most of the content does not come from Tolkien. (I’m not a fan of those walking movies anyway. I like running movies, like the first ofo the Matrix films.)
Stephen Pruett says:
December 17, 2012 at 6:17 pm
“Does anyone actually know enough about regional climate modeling to know if the paper (not the press release) has any merit?”
I know enough about chaos and models to tell you that what these people do has no predictive value. The normal GCMs already have no predictive skills but these guys have managed to make it worse.
Yet, the story that their computer tells will look very realistic, like a modern CGI movie, and I guess that is what the climate science apparatchiks want to achieve. Trying to get back to the good old days when Al Gore’s mockumentary was able to sell millions of tickets.
My bold.
This is good because they would have been long retired. This is how you do it folks.
Silly me, I thought even the IPCC and WMO uses a period of 30 years for climate. 4 years is now climate. Unbelievable crap.
The only time those “Models” will derive or achieve any credibility, is when they can accurately demonstrate the weather yesterday. Something they appear to be incapable of achieving due to the varied and compulsive manipulations of the data.
At this point in time, they are equivalent to crystal ball gazing, Astrology and Voodoo incantations. Maybe one day we will see the opposite of “Garbage in/Prophecy Out”.
So, how are they doing with the precise annual forecasts or do I stick with the Farmer’s Almanac?
squid2112 says:
December 17, 2012 at 7:53 pm
“…both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation.
…I find this hilarious! .. they were just telling us (here in Nashville) this past summer that we were all doomed from “permanent drought” … good grief! … give me an F’ing break already….”
Don’t worry, another highly regarded group of “scientists” will run an even bigger and more expensive super computer and get even more “accurate and precise” model predictions further into the future which will be the complete opposite to these highly “accurate and precise” predicitons.
I would like to nominate the following for “Quote of the Week” or “Friday Funny” on Friday.
The “climate” precision is quite amazing. These ‘researchers’ would make the Brothers Grimm blush profusely.
Just imagine the people who have reacted to all the nonsense of CAGW gloom and doom to the extent that it has had a negative impact on their lives. Totally irresponsible to continue this “the sky is falling” fear rhetoric. It creates hopelessness and guilt.
gbaikie says:
December 17, 2012 at 12:27 pm
It seems everyone fails to realize the Urban Heat Island Effect is real and therefore predictable.
Only if you know the the size and density of the town in question. What will the urban area and number of inhabitants in Nashville and Memphis in 2057 (to four significant digits).
Well, in Maritime Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island) the meteorologists / climate scientists using dynamic downscaling are predicting temperatures for 2100 on a town by town basis with the towns 20 – 50 kms apart. Temperatures up to 8 deg. C higher than now. It is utter rubbish but it is what the government is using. Drinking the cool aid I would say.
Pull My Finger says:
December 17, 2012 at 10:39 am
I’m sure they will have no problem at all telling me who will win the next 50 Super Bowls.
That’s very long term! I will settle for the winners of the next 50 horse races at any horse racecourse you care to name! That, at least, would have some value!
Actually, winners of horse races and super bowls would be easier. For one thing, the developer of this predictive algorithm probably would feed “past” data into it and see if the predictions were accurate, unlike the climate change people. I doubt they would share data any more than climate scientists, however!
Whatever’s going to happen, it ain’t started happening yet!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/12/18/new-study-predicts-hotter-heatwaves-for-us/#more-2132
Did anyone notice that the supercomputer predicted a 35% increase on average in precipitation with the most at the coast? The coastal amount was listed as 150mm. Two problems! First, 35% of precipitation in this part of the country is a number 2.5 to 3 times 150mm. Second, 150mm is within the natural variability. 600mm extra in four years happens often. So does 600mm less. Still, how can a supercomputer take 35% of the 40 to 50 annual inch rainfall and get an answer of 6?
Elliott: Garbage in, garbage out? Super just refers to computing capacity, not the intellectual capacity of those using it.
Sorry to burden the rest of you with the high-jinx our science hillbillies. The Bredesen Center and increasingly the Oak Ridge National Laboratory are excellent examples of money and politics corrupting science. Oak Ridge of course was the home of The Manhatten Project and has since focused on supporting the nuclear industry without limits. The Bredesen Center is a pass-through for state and federal funding of renewable energy and climate science. It’s inception goes back to our once young Congressman Al Gore and former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker. As Monckton tells us of Thatcher and nuclear so it has been here. We need to find a way to defund both of these useless money pits.
There has got to be a way, before this sort of crap is allowed onto the public domain, for it to be screened and challenged. Without such accountability, the university is engaging in misleading and deceptive conduct.
Mervyn: No way without censoring the press. The media loves doomsday and will use any lie or truth that pushes for said agenda. The ONLY defense against any of this is an educated population. Allowing the greens to take over schools was huge mistake and will be hard to overcome. Right now, the internet is the main defense, until someone starts filling classrooms with teachers that are not political “true believers”.