From the world bank…sound the general alarm! (sound of klaxons) But see the data at the end.
4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy
Humankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases are breaking new records every year. Hence we’re on a path towards 4-degree global warming probably as soon as by the end of this century. This would mean a world of risks beyond the experience of our civilization – including heat waves, especially in the tropics, a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, and regional yield failures impacting global food security. These are some of the results of a report for the World Bank, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics in Berlin. The poorest in the world are those that will be hit hardest, making development without climate policy almost impossible, the researchers conclude.
“The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber points out. “If we venture far beyond the 2-degree guardrail, towards 4 degrees, we risk crossing tipping points in the Earth system.” This could be the case with coral reefs which face collapse under unabated global warming, or with the Greenland ice sheet. To melt the ice sheet would take thousands of years, yet this might be an irreversible process that could start soon. “The only way to avoid this is to break with the fossil-fuel-age patterns of production and consumption,” says Schellnhuber.
Climate impacts: Heat waves, sea-level rise, yield failures
Already today impacts of climate change are observed. The Russian heat wave in 2010, according to preliminary estimates, produced a death toll of several thousand, annual crop failure of about 25%, and economic losses of about US$15 billion. Extreme events like this at 4 degrees global warming would become “the new normal” in some parts of the world, according to the report. In the tropics, the coolest months at the end of the century are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months today.
Sea level, under this scenario, would rise by 50 to 100 centimeters within this century, and more so in coming centuries. The rate of rise varies from one region to the other, depending on sea currents and other factors. Projections suggest that sea-level rise will be strongest in countries like the Philippines, Mexico, and India.
Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.
World Bank President Kim: “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided”
“The report draws from the current state of science and delivers new analysis of heat waves and regional sea-level rise, so of course there remain some uncertainties,” says William Hare, co-founder of Climate Analytics in Berlin and guest scientist at PIK. “We work with that by defining risk as potential damage multiplied with the probability – a rather improbable event can be a great risk if its impacts are huge.”
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim who was nominated early this year by US President Barack Obama and assumed his new position in July, has personally been briefed on the 4-degrees report by Schellnhuber some weeks ago in Washington D.C.. “A 4-degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” President Kim now said in a statement. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the biggest single challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”
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Tom Nelson points out this tweet from “The Carbon Brief””.
Twitter / carbonbrief: The World Bank 4 degree report …
The World Bank 4 degree report in full here: http://ow.ly/foBEX and summary for policymakers here: http://ow.ly/foBGN
From the summary:
This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes….The science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed: global mean warming is 0.8°C above pre industrial levels; oceans have warmed by 0.09°C since the 1950s and are acidifying; sea levels rose by about 20 cm since pre-industrial times and are now rising at 3.2 cm per decade;
.09 degrees? That’s still in the noise band of the measurements…only bankers would tell us we are a few pennies off and this will lead to catastrophe.
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“Within economic sectors, too, tipping effects with rapidly increasing damages can occur, for instance in agriculture. Already, observations showed that important cereals are sensitive to temperature increases passing certain thresholds, resulting in large-scale yield failure. Changes in the water cycle can aggravate this, when droughts occur or flooding affects farmed land.”
What a coincidence. Along with bankers, scientists and politicians are also busily scaring the wits out of people about their crops and water, and waging a legislative war on growers to reduce yields.
For example: http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Rice_agriculture_accelerates_global_warming_999.html
Now will the real Tipping Point please stand up: Science used to terrify and transmit wild phobias to people about water, cattle, crops, electricity, coal, and gas.
The World Bank report gets parroted…I just ran across this:
http://news.yahoo.com/prepared-accept-risks-four-degree-warming-164012393.html
(Emphasis mine)
(Sorry, the emphasis html in my 11:53 am post didn’t come through…I was trying to highlight “threshold fast approaching”.)
Ah! the World Bank makes a prediction about the future climate, it must be true, they are really clever people.
The funny thing is the World Bank seemed unable to predict the World Banking Collapse, when you would of thought they should have been able to do this, being experts in such things.
Perhaps they are not that clever?
To be fair to the World Bank, this is a report on the consequences assuming a 4K increase in temperatures by the end of the century. They are not trying to validate the assumption – they are looking at what the consequences will be if the assumption is correct. Given that they’re claiming that that rise is almost unanimous amongst scientists, they’re looking at the consequences. That’s not unreasonable. Whether or not that assumption is a valid assumption is a completely different question.
In the UK when the sub prime crisis hit it was revealed that the UK banks lost more money than all the profits they had ever made.
And now these ‘ ‘ankers are once more about to demonstrate their ability to thoroughly and completely analyse a financial opportunity, in this case, climate change.
The world is going to warm by 4 degrees ? Good luck with putting your money behind that…
Looks like banking history might repeat itself even faster than anyone could ever have expected.
Although they do provide loans, World Bank really isn’t a bank; it’s more like an investor group, and some of their investments are going to pay off only if the scare continues.
Check out their statement on their “what we do” page. Instead of me posting the whole gobbledy gook link, just go to:
http://www.worldbank.org
and click “About”, then “What We Do”
This study seems like a repackaging of the Copenhagen Diagnosis, which Rahmstorf & Schellnhuber from PIK were involved in. Here’s a link to it:
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
If someone wants to analyze the similarities between the two, it would be interesting.
PS: Other co-authors were M. Mann & Eric Steig.
I’m still curious as to when your full broadcast will be available on the web for downloading, at least in parts and sections. I saw a fair amount of it, but missed many of the presentations I really wanted to see. You mentioned that each section would become available for download at some point. How’s that progressing?
Temperature tipping point or fiscal cliff or wolf, better sooner than later, better now than after the expense of a brick shiitehouse.
I was very curious as to how they were going to get around the last 14 years of inconvenient temperatures. The answer was obvious when I stared at Fig 1 for awhile. You show the “Historical observations” as a very thin line which is dwarfed by RCP3PD, which is pretty much right on it for the last decade. (It was apparently in forecast mode only since late 2009) So how long will observations have to diverge from models to make a chart like this look silly? I would think another decade or so would do it. It is worth noting that RCP3PD assumes that deep cuts are made in CO2 emissions, which I didn’t realize was happening.
In the report, there is a list of dire CO2 statistics, followed by this bullet:
• Global mean temperature has continued to increase and is
now about 0.8°C above preindustrial levels.
Now, you might think that someone would figure out that the CO2 hypothesis is wrong, but that seems to be off the table. The data in this report seems to be fairly shrieking that message, but deafness prevails. Eventually, nature will make herself heard.
Paul Matthews says:
November 19, 2012 at 8:14 am
Let’s think, who would you trust to provide a reliable, honest, accurate account of climate change?
That’s it – bankers!
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Of Course, After all A World Bank employee ran the IPCC. SEE: World Bank, Global Warming, Journals, and CRU Also Maurice Strong chair of the First Earth Summit in 1972 and of Kyoto was also a senior Advisor to the World Bank.
This announcement may backfire on them.
Remember Occupy Wall Street? How about Whirledbank’s article on The Structural Adjustment Policies of the World Bank and IMF? Or better yet Mr. Budhoo’s Bombshell a scathing letter of resignation.
The IMF and World Bank are not the same but they are linked in people’s minds,
William Nies says:
November 19, 2012 at 11:24 am
Is this a science website? Sounds like a bar-room. How about some explicit counter-arguments , references and sources? Let’s grow up!
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That was the WUWT TV 24hr broadcast. I don’t know about the rest here but I think I overdosed on science. Too bad we cant get these idiots to watch the youtubes Anthony is going to put up shortly.
this is all over the swedish press, all papers
But this is the World Bank, famous for sticking poor countries with pernicious economic policies that lead to exploitation by greedy foreign companies.
The Big Money boys behind them will be licking their lips.
JoNova quoted The Very Wonderful Julia Gillard on this:
“In total around sixty per cent of the world’s GDP is either subject to a carbon price today, or has one legislated or planned for implementation in the two or three years ahead.
International carbon markets will cover billions of consumers this decade. Ask the bankers at your table whether they want Australia to clip that ticket. We’re going to help them get their share.”
Yep. Let the banksters screw us even more.
(This is a repeat of the comment I made on Australian Climate Madness.)
Tom Jones says:
November 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm
…. The data in this report seems to be fairly shrieking that message, but deafness prevails. Eventually, nature will make herself heard.
________________________________
I am hoping that will happen this year with the COLDEST, SNOWIEST winter evah!
It looks like we are off to a good start too.
CHINA:
Worst snow in 50 years damages 400 greenhouse
Heavy snow blankets Urumqi, Xinjiang
Cold wave brings heavy snow, sleet to Beijing
Cold wave brings snow to Inner Mongolia
Russia Cold Wave Update:
Somehow I think this is going to bring home to the Russians the words of their prominent scientists.
Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences thinks were are heading into a long cold spell.
In the near future mankind will face a new ice age not a global warming. That is the forecast which has been made by Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of Space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory… he thinks we are headed into ” a new cold era, which may become the fifth Little Ice Age in the last nine centuries. “ No surprise that “..Abdusamatov’s forecasts fail to find support among his colleagues..”
His work:
Measure temporary variations of shape and diameter of the Sun, as well as fine structure and dynamics of the granulation on the Service module of the Russian segment of the International Space Station
That was last February, seems some Russian scientist may have changed their mind.
Scientists Of The Russian Academy Of Science: “Global Warming Is Coming To An End – Return To Early 1980s Level” “Top scientists of Russia’s most prestigious academy say global warming is ending…Russian Academy of Sciences: temperatures will drop half a degree by 2015.”
And do not forget Down Under
16 August 2011; New Zealand becomes a winter wonderland after being hit by heaviest snowfall in 30 years
Jul 13, 2012, Australian wheat yields threatened by cold weather “Nearly 14 percent of New South Wales wheat production impacted by frost”
12 October 2012: A cold snap has covered parts of Australia’s east coast with a blanket of snow, in the middle of spring. Motorists were left stranded in the Blue Mountains west of Sydney, while power lines were downed, trees uprooted and ferries cancelled due to high winds and hail in coastal areas.
October 11, 2012; Australia Storm Gives Rare Snow: An unusually cold storm in southern Australia has dished out the first October snow in a century.
I am an ‘a-political’ skeptic. On some issues I’m to the ‘left’ of Michael Bakunin on others I’m to the ‘right’ of Ghengis Khan. This story gives me great pleasure because I can use it to confuse my friends of the ‘anti-corporate anti-banking’ persuasion…who up until now have been stolidly pro-global warming. When they find out that entities like Deutsch Bank, the World Bank have been promoting the Global Warming scare many of them will have to reconsider their allegiances.
Tom O says:
November 19, 2012 at 10:33 am Boomers are the most intelligent
Oh look, here’s one questioning authority now!
http://www.politicalcartoons.com/cartoon/9b28208b-bf66-4215-a19a-58f98a2a7994.html
Let’s see ..
‘new and better analysis’ — CHECK
‘tipping point’ — CHECK
‘weasel words’ (‘could’, ‘can’,’might’,’are likely’,’risk that’,’projections’) — CHECK
‘action needed now’ — CHECK
‘moral responsibility’ — CHECK
‘accelerating process’ — CHECK
Yes, all the old tiresome Green/Left talking points, dutifully recycled.
As long as Gillard is insuring bankers will have “their share” of the carbon markets scam…
Check Jo Nova’s fantastic post on that!
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/11/did-julia-really-say-that-shes-here-to-help-bankers-get-their-share/
The World bank is simply slightly impatient…
The impending deadline is the coming realisation by the general public that this thing is a bit of a mash-up.
“This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius,”
Good job it is not warming up then! If it was perhaps all the alarming things in the report would come true. It seems now that will not come to pass in our lives or the lives of our children. If the temperature can stagger back up to current levels by the end of the 21st century we will be doing well.
I know it is not re rigeur but WB studies can be unrepresentative of important thinkers inside the Bank and represent the view of the contracted organisation, or the individuals requesting it. My caution, don’t over-react. It is a large organisation. It is interesting that it has largely resisted jumping onto the AGW bandwagon for so long. Read between those lines. There is a lot going on.
This is another scare-story. Here’s a link to a list of links to over a hundred papers pointing out failed warmist predictions:
http://www.c3headlines.com/bad-predictions-failed.html
The dishonesty of this report is evident in this quote from page two of its Executive Summary (on p. 13 of its PDF at http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_Heat_Executive_Summary_English.pdf):
I.e., the same as it was in 2007.
Incidentally, this report is different from the Copenhagen Diagnosis. A summary of its outline can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Diagnosis